Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 21
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  1. Sandman I’m not dismissing the possibility that the Greens may lose votes to independents or others. It’s just way too early to say when we don’t know who these people are and where they’ll be standing.

  2. Thank you for your insight, MI. Guns can be used for good, as you say for getting rid of feral pests, but should be strictly controlled.

  3. BSA Bob @ #601 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:53 am

    Well I sure hope the stuff in the Oz about the Greens is true.
    Off to the dentist. Bugger.

    Of course it’s true. I have witnessed first hand a Senator from The Greens conspiring with the Opposition’s Immigration spokesman, to defeat a Labor Bill in the Senate. Because it would have solved a problem and taken away a wedge they were both using against Labor for their own benefit.

  4. As information about the shooter slowly trickles out, it looks more and more as if it might be yet another case of a loser loner wanting to big note themselves. It’s a complete absurdity that a civilised country would allow such individuals access to semi-automatic weapons.

    But will Trump’s near-death experience lead him towards enlightenment on this issue? Not publicly, at least. (It is said that, back in the days when he was more of a Democrat, he made some vaguely pro-gun control statements. But of course it’s no longer his brand in 2024.)

    Re the impact of all of this on the election. I’m still backing the proposition that it won’t make much difference, or might even be a slight negative for Trump. The image of him with bloody face and raising his fist in the air muttering “fight, fight, fight” will cause the MAGA types to cream their jeans. But it might well disturb some of the swinging voters, emphasising for them that their country is rapidly becoming a scarier place and that Trump is a contributor towards that state of affairs.

    But who knows?

    The other interesting question is whether the memento mori provided by Thomas Crook will prompt Trump to rethink his V-P choice and perhaps fulfill his heart’s desire of putting Don jr into the role, so that, if he does end up being assassinated while serving as President, he can be sure that the dynastic succession will continue. I wouldn’t be surprised if, at this very minute, aides are desperately trying to talk him out of the idea.

  5. The U.S. Secret Service is investigating how a gunman armed with an AR-style rifle was able to get close enough to shoot and injure former President Donald Trump at a rally Saturday in Pennsylvania, a monumental failure of one the agency’s core duties.
    The gunman, who was killed by Secret Service personnel, fired multiple shots at the stage from an “elevated position outside of the rally venue,” the agency said.
    https://www.npr.org/2024/07/14/nx-s1-5039137/secret-service-investigating-how-trump-shooter-was-able-to-get-so-close

  6. Brittany Higgins has announced she is expecting her first child with partner David Sharaz in a post to social media. From their home in Bergerac, France, Higgins shared the news on Instagram.
    _______________
    How long before Janet Albrechtsen describes this as a tactical pregnancy?

  7. The image of him with bloody face and raising his fist in the air muttering “fight, fight, fight”

    It was the other ‘f word’, actually but reporting has become quickly sanitised to say what you put above. I watched him mouth those words and that was my initial, clear impression. Don’t think that the Trump campaign are beyond immediately crafting a winning narrative for their man and his campaign.

  8. Thanks Mostly Interested.

    Two people on here have explained more about the Shooter technical aspect than I have seen anywhere.

  9. On the reports that someone alerted the police there was a guy with a rifle on the roof.

    We’ll need to wait for the debrief report from various agencies on what occurred. The timing was pretty quick, minutes from reports, between initial sighting and the shots. There is the possibility the diffuse nature of the agencies involved (the county/state police system they use is so archaic), along with standard comms channels that go up and down a network, into a node, then switch up and down another network. Usually on different equipment, most definitely on different frequencies. Basically they cant all talk to one another.

    It can be easy to assume that even if the local police officer got on his radio it would have gone to his dispatch service, then that should be sent to to their local HQ. We don’t know the protocols, but it may have then needed to be handled by a second agency before even getting to the secret service comms network. That just takes time, and may or may not have been practiced before hand. The human element of the police officer(s) on the ground may have meant they took time to verify what was occurring. Humans just dont react very quickly to unfolding events.

    Looking at the ground photos, that shed roof the shooter was on was a very very obvious place to shoot from.

    We dont know yet, but in my opinion (opinion remember) there was very probably several failures here. Not having the standard bullet proof screens up, the comms slowness, not having someone on the elevated position, the slowness of the verification process, the radius of the control perimeter being so small.

    The secret service sniper seemed to know something was up before the initial shots were fired, that trump wasn’t bundled off the stage immediately that has some operational questions to be answered.

    I am very certainly not saying there is any kind of conspiracy here (because there wasn’t). But the operational execution will need to be investigated as it looks like there was a fuck up.

  10. Lordbain, I agree the Australian is most of the time full of bunkum and other world truth telling, but not always so. Sure, there may be an element of stocking the fire in their anti Labor/Greens/Teals approach but having kept a close eye on what the Muslim Vote people and others have been putting out there about not being able to back the Greens “anti-religious” politics, there is a ring of truth to that Australian article – surprise surprise – but very plausible IMHO. Anyway, lets see how this issue progresses over the coming months.

  11. A local police chief has urged Republican convention attendees to exercise their right to carry firearms responsibly, ahead of the start of the convention.

    The Republican National Convention begins tomorrow Australian time in the city of Milwaukee, and the city’s chief of police said Wisconsin state law allows people to carry firearms.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-shooting-live-updates-investigation-continues-into-suspected-gunman-s-motive-after-former-us-president-wounded-at-pennsylvania-rally-20240714-p5jtm0.html?post=p579xq#p579xq

    Gee, what could go wrong…?!

  12. Oh dear, William is vetting anything I post with Lordbain mentioned. Guess I have to wear that- I do go over the top at times. Sorry William.

  13. Confessionssays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:14 am
    A local police chief has urged Republican convention attendees to exercise their right to carry firearms responsibly, ahead of the start of the convention.

    Lets hope they dont get jumpy after the last convention shooting and end up popping off at each other out of panic at unexpected noises around them. This is nuts. What a mess.

  14. Lets hope they dont get all jumpy and pop off at each other with their guns if they hear an unexpected noise around them at the next convention Fess. This is nuts. What the hell happened to America.

  15. The US elections?

    Reality and unreality blend as we all become real-time participants in a meta movie.

    Given the warren is virtually and really incomprehensible, I was pleased with FUBAR’s ‘defilade’… something almost tangible. The nano I read it I wondered about his military competence.

    I recognize his handsome tactical withdrawal.

  16. ‘Entropy says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:11 pm

    Lordbainsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:06 pm
    clem, do you think these people realise that Palestinians are also… Semitic?!

    Shock horror
    ===========================================

    I did put forward a thesis. Not well received here, that the Roman Empire were the true anti-semites. Not just because of their treatment of Judea. More so due to the genocide of the semitic people of Carthage.

    Though the big question we really need to address from the Punic Wars. Is whether taking elephants across the European Alps was crueller than the live sheep export trade. Also if they were African elephants how did they domesticate them?’
    ———————————
    African elephants can be domesticated and trained.

  17. ‘Lordbain says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:56 pm

    Bystander, i know your not playing in good faith, but ill still bite;

    As of now between 85 – 90 percent of gazans have been displaced.

    And based on the latest information (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext#%20) the deathtoll could exceed 186,000 based on disease, starvation etc.

    Keep in mind the Gazan population was 590,481 in 2017, so… that would be potentially 30 percent of the population dead, with 85 percent of the remainder displaced.

    I wonder what that sounds like…’
    ===================================
    It sounds like numbers pertaining to Gaza are unreliable and will almost certainly be politically massaged at every stage for purposes other than getting the numbers right.

  18. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Regardless of how either side spins it, looking at the visual imagery of the Trump assassination attempt I find it hard to see how it will not benefit Trump politically. Trump looks simultaneously brave and a victim. For many low information voters, that is all they will judge on.

    Thanks to others for explaining the shooting mechanics. If the distance to the shooter’s position was only 130 metres it does seem a security oversight to leave it unattended.

  19. Boerwar @ #616 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 8:23 am

    The US elections?

    Reality and unreality blend as we all become real-time participants in a meta movie.

    Given the warren is virtually and really incomprehensible, I was pleased with FUBAR’s ‘defilade’… something almost tangible. The nano I read it I wondered about his military competence.

    I recognize his handsome tactical withdrawal.

    BW, defilade just means behind cover until you expose yourself to the enemy, in this case the down slope of the shed roof. Famously the Duke of Wellington used this to his army’s great advantage at the Battle of Waterloo. He kept the majority of his infantry behind a small rise so that Napoleon’s cannons could not do their usual destructive work.

  20. BW< i see you didnt read the article.

    It notes the methodology, and that it used conservative figures…

    Socrates, it blows me away that some here think the Trump picture will hurt his chances even with swing voters. During times of uncertainty and global conflict, based on image alone… who looks more like a US cliche of a leader between Trump and Biden

  21. One of the many regrets of the Trump shooting is it distracted attention from other things. The Sixty minutes story on corruption in the CFMEU (and the building industry; it isn’t only the union) is not a gotcha. The problem is real. Labor was correct to expel Setka. He and his cronies give unions a bad name.

    Corruption in the building industry is rife in both private and public sector projects. I was literally warned by experienced peers to avoid doing construction engineering roles in Victoria 25 years ago. The problem has been that long standing.

    This costs both taxpayers and consumers money. There would be political capital gained by whoever cleaned it up.

  22. ‘Lordbain says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:37 am

    BW< i see you didnt read the article.

    It notes the methodology, and that it used conservative figures…'
    ——————————–
    Which exactly proves my point. Why are the figures 'conservative'?

  23. Why have all the polls gone quiet? Haven’t seen one in a while. Seems like the MSM are running their usual protection racket for the unpopular ALP-LNP Uniparty.

  24. They are conservative BW because they dont have the exact figures, ergo its better to be on the side of caution.

    Not sure how “i think this figure is wrong and not worth noting because its likely the death toll is higher” weakens the argument that has been put forward that killing 30 plus percent of a population meets certain criteria…

  25. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:40 am

    One of the many regrets of the Trump shooting is it distracted attention from other things. The Sixty minutes story on corruption in the CFMEU (and the building industry; it isn’t only the union) is not a gotcha. The problem is real. Labor was correct to expel Setka. He and his cronies give unions a bad name.

    Corruption in the building industry is rife in both private and public sector projects. I was literally warned by experienced peers to avoid doing construction engineering roles in Victoria 25 years ago. The problem has been that long standing.

    This costs both taxpayers and consumers money. There would be political capital gained by whoever cleaned it up.’
    ———————–
    With up to 40% of new builds having significant faults, and with a cascading series of bankruptcies and phoenixing, as well as the endemic union-related corruption, the industry would benefit from a Royal Commission.

  26. ‘Lordbain says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:43 am

    They are conservative BW because they dont have the exact figures, ergo its better to be on the side of caution.

    Not sure how “i think this figure is wrong and not worth noting because its likely the death toll is higher” weakens the argument that has been put forward that killing 30 plus percent of a population meets certain criteria…’
    ——————
    Keep digging. My point is that numbers coming out of Gaza are massaged politically. You keep demonstrating this point.

  27. ‘BK says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:03 am

    Brittany Higgins has announced she is expecting her first child with partner David Sharaz in a post to social media. From their home in Bergerac, France, Higgins shared the news on Instagram.
    _______________
    How long before Janet Albrechtsen describes this as a tactical pregnancy?’
    ========================
    The Liberals have form. This is basically that of which Dutton accused asylum seekers in detention.

  28. ‘Lordbain says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:55 am

    BW, please point out the political angle from the peer reviewed medical journal ‘
    ———————-
    Do keep digging.
    My main point is that figures coming out of Gaza are politically massaged.
    You keep demonstrating this main point. That a journal felt compelled to use ‘conservative’ figures for what are essentially nothing much more than educated guesses demonstrates my point. Why ‘conservative’?

  29. Greens tell Muslim Vote to ‘leave Wills, Senate alone’
    The Australian July 15th.
    Panicked Greens senators and MPs fear the burgeoning The Muslim Vote movement could cost them the prized target seat of Wills and upper house votes, pleading with the campaign to leave it and the Senate race alone.
    A potential split in the pro-­Palestine vote came as Muslim leaders said the Greens’ policy slate would be a “deal-breaker” for the community, regardless of its pro-Palestine stance.The revelations are part of an investigation by The Australian into the Greens’ policies and electoral strategy as it seeks to win the balance of power in the upcoming Queensland and federal elections.
    ———
    Most of the star Greens in the Senate are up for re election in 2025 including Faraqi (NSW), Larissa Waters (QLD), Sarah Hanson-Young (SA) Nick McKim (TAS), Hodgins (Vic) and John Steele- Johns (WA).

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Senators/Senators_by_service_expiry_date

    I am not so sure the Greens ought to be “panicked” about the Senate, but their chances of winning lower house seats like Wills just got that much harder I would have thought.

  30. Good Morning

    At this point I would like to point out that Labor has officially called for a ceasefire and US led negotiations for that are continuing as I type. My hope is that happens sooner than later so hostages are freed and the death toll stops going up.

  31. Boerwar @ #624 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 8:44 am

    ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:40 am

    One of the many regrets of the Trump shooting is it distracted attention from other things. The Sixty minutes story on corruption in the CFMEU (and the building industry; it isn’t only the union) is not a gotcha. The problem is real. Labor was correct to expel Setka. He and his cronies give unions a bad name.

    Corruption in the building industry is rife in both private and public sector projects. I was literally warned by experienced peers to avoid doing construction engineering roles in Victoria 25 years ago. The problem has been that long standing.

    This costs both taxpayers and consumers money. There would be political capital gained by whoever cleaned it up.’
    ———————–
    With up to 40% of new builds having significant faults, and with a cascading series of bankruptcies and phoenixing, as well as the endemic union-related corruption, the industry would benefit from a Royal Commission.

    …Not run by a Liberal stooge judge. 😐

  32. ‘Lordbain says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 9:02 am

    BW… youve never written any academic papers have you.

    Im getting of this ride’
    —————
    Yes.
    Deflection.
    Keep digging.

  33. The Victorian branch of the CFMEU will be placed into administration, following an emergency meeting of the union’s national executive this morning.

    This comes amid reports alleging bikies were acting as union delegates, and other alleged links between construction projects and organised crime.

    CFMEU national secretary Zach Smith said he would use the new powers to immediately establish an independent process, overseen by a leading legal figure, to investigate any credible allegations of wrongdoing:

  34. Scott 1 @ #631 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 9:05 am

    Good Morning

    At this point I would like to point out that Labor has officially called for a ceasefire and US led negotiations for that are continuing as I type. My hope is that happens sooner than later so hostages are freed and the death toll stops going up.

    And the poor Palestinian people need to acknowledge this crap is real:

    Not long after the war began, three women went to their local member of parliament to register their dismay about Gaza. The women were aged in their late 20s or early 30s. One was a lawyer, another worked for a design firm. One wore a keffiyeh draped around her shoulders.

    The federal MP, who asked not to be identified for fear of inciting anti-Israel protesters to target his electorate office and staff, offered a considered response. He, too, was appalled at the deaths of innocent Palestinians and acknowledged the terrible history of oppression of people who live on the Gaza Strip. He also condemned the atrocities of October 7.

    It is here that the woman wearing the keffiyeh interjected. “That never happened,” she said. “The 7th of October never happened. It is fake news.”

    This flat denial of murder, rape, and mutilation of Jewish and Arab Israelis, a daylight carnage captured on hundreds of security cameras, dash cameras, mobile phones and body cameras worn by the killers, left the MP flummoxed. “That was in November,” he says. “Already, the disinformation campaign had done its work.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-denial-and-disinformation-facing-october-7-survivors-20240630-p5jpy2.html

    They’ve been pwned by some very sophisticated bad actors.


  35. Sandmansays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:23 am
    Lets hope they dont get all jumpy and pop off at each other with their guns if they hear an unexpected noise around them at the next convention Fess. This is nuts. What the hell happened to America.

    They were always hiding in plain sight. It is just that American leaders brushed that of by saying it is just one bad apple or few bad apples. The difference is Trump brought that into open. That’s all.

    The anger from civil war defeat in 1864 has never really gone away in deep south. It was just given different names. The “Southern Conservatives” always wanted to go back to society before 1864.

    Initially Democrats harnessed it till Franklin Roosevelt became President and it was sustained till LBJ was President.

    After that Republicans harnessed it to churn out one bad leader after another.

    Jimmy Carter won because he was a Southerner and Nixon resigned in disgrace

    Bill Clinton only won as Democrat because he was Southerner and the vote was split between him, Republican and Ross Perot and there was recession.
    Obama won because of GFC and being a superior orator.

    Biden won because of COVID, Trump being the worst POTUS ever. Unfortunately now thinks that Democrats won Presidenct only because od him. As I said in earlier posts he got lucky in 2020.
    He should have fulfilled his rhetoric that he would be the bridge between Old and young by declaring in Febuary 2024 that he will not re-contest and allowed regular primaries.

  36. Albo’s war on AI continues. Sounds like focus groups don’t like it.
    No leadership at all.

    “There is chatter going around the Australian software sector that the federal government has conducted extensive polling to gauge Australians attitudes to generative AI.

    The chatter says the polling confirms fear and loathing are dominant. Australians see robots taking their jobs and then ruling the world, before making humans extinct.

    Realpolitech asked the office of Industry and Science minister Ed Husic to confirm whether the polling had taken place and got no reply. That’s not at all surprising.”

  37. Socratessays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:40 am
    Corruption in the building industry is rife in both private and public sector projects. I was literally warned by experienced peers to avoid doing construction engineering roles in Victoria 25 years ago. The problem has been that long standing.
    _____________________
    Yeah, everyone knows that.
    Except for Burke and Shorten who are shocked with the revelations.
    Pull the other one, who the hell do they think we are.

  38. Read this by Sandman upthread:

    “Lets hope they dont get all jumpy and pop off at each other with their guns if they hear an unexpected noise around them at the next convention Fess.”

    Apparently the gun laws there:

    “Wisconsin is an open carry state with the right to bear arms, meaning anyone who is not otherwise barred from carrying a legal firearm may do so as long as they are in a public location, a building they own, a private establishment that isn’t licensed to sell alcohol, or a public building.”

    So, you could actually have a situation where everybody at the convention, except Trump who is a felon, could have a gun on them. 🙂 Depends on the exact rules at the venue i guess which i would hope preclude guns?

    But yeah, could get messy in the carpark if anyone gets worked up? Would be tragic, but also, really, at least somewhat evolution in action.

  39. In 1984 the most amazing US Presidential result has happened:
    Reagan won re-election in a landslide victory, carrying 525 electoral votes, 49 states, and 58.8% of the popular vote.

    And Reagan was the most radical Presidential candidate and US President till that time.

    Democrats even lost Biden home state Delaware.

    Demorats won Minnesota only because Walter Mondale was from Minnesota.

  40. Yes, bullet vending machines can be found in some US grocery stores, although they are not as common as traditional vending machines. These machines dispense bullets or ammunition, often in a secure and regulated manner.

    Some companies, like Ammo Vending Machines and Bullet Vending, specialize in installing and operating bullet vending machines in various locations, including:

    – Gun ranges
    – Shooting sports facilities
    – Hunting stores
    – Some grocery stores

    These machines typically use a secure authentication process, such as fingerprint scanning or age verification, to ensure only authorized individuals can purchase ammunition.

    However, it’s important to note that the availability of bullet vending machines in US grocery stores may vary depending on local laws and regulations regarding the sale of ammunition. Some states or regions may have specific restrictions or requirements for the sale of ammunition, which could affect the presence of these machines in grocery stores.

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