Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:
• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.
• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.
• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.
• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.
Albrechtsen might keep her trap shut on the Higgins pregnancy. On this issue, her creditability is no better than Soffronoff or Lehrmann.
The education wars are running hot in Tasmania.
We have this college system whereby you finish high school in year 10, then travel to a college for years 11 & 12. Tasmania for various reasons has the lowest graduation rate from year 12 amongst all the states. Whether to abolish the colleges or not has always been a topic for debate. The high schools are so small it is hard to get a critical mass of students to teach subjects, so the concentration of students in the colleges allow this. The population is small and dispersed so kids have to travel to get to the colleges but this uproots them from their community. A classic catch 22
My own personal experience is now way out of date, ’89/90 is when I went there, but I can say I flunked out pretty badly. As a country kid I had to catch a bus at 6am every morning, and coming from a grade 10 of only 80 kids I was lost completely in the college of 1200 students. It took another decade before I was in a position to go to university.
The Australian: https://archive.md/QS0a6
A local police officer has encouraged convention goers to do exactly that. Use the open carry laws to carry a weapon. Crazy shit.
Open carry likely means that concealed carry isn’t allowed.
So, not a big deal in a western democracy.
Diogenes
“Australians see robots taking their jobs and then ruling the world, before making humans extinct.”
————-
That’s fair enough, they have point, but what if our next overlords decide that ALL organic life is hopelessly inefficient.
Just think of all those other wonderful animals.
The shooting will no doubt motivate Trump’s base, but his base is not enough to win a national election.
Personally I see the images of him plastered on the newspapers and I see a scared, confused old man, and I have to believe that many others out there see the same thing.
I also imagine there is a bit of “you get what you deserve” since he has so brazenly joked about and in some cases actually encouraged political violence towards others.
Also on a personal level it is just genuinely hard to empathise with Trump and see him as a victim when his whole persona is being a divisive, racist bully.
Hahaha what Bean?
The pictures doing the rounds are comparing debate night Biden looking slackjawed and lost, and a bloody but unbowed Trump with a raised fist.
Thats some bluemaga reading…
And before people start accusing me of liking trump, i would say my true views are of the nature that i wont type it here and put William on a watchlist
I would say if anything the constant media narrative of “this will bolster trump” will probably do more to bolster Trump than the actual shooting did, maybe a bit of a Kuleshov effect with headlines such as “DEFIANT” when they could just as easily read “CONFUSED”.
Just for the record this whole thing makes me sick to the stomach, the last thing we needed is this bullshit.
Prospective replacements for Biden are apparently standing down
https://x.com/facethenation/status/1812518504811163888?s=46&t=K6FGbp50eRxca8zB8gIl_A
@meher: “It’s a complete absurdity that a civilised country would allow such individuals access to semi-automatic weapons.”
That is true but I don’t think the attempt on Trump’s life would have been prevented even if they had Australian gun control laws, nor would Trump and the Republicans ever see this event as a reason for better gun control.
@Bean: “The shooting will no doubt motivate Trump’s base, but his base is not enough to win a national election.”
It is if the Democrat base is sufficiently demotivated. At this point the allegedly anti-Trump national media and high profile Democrats have been going so hard on undercutting Biden in public that it is hard to see how he can come back from it if he does remain the candidate, since the Trump campaign can just roll out the footage and quotes from actual Democrats, wall to wall, to say Biden is unfit for office. It’s an incredibly risky game for Democrats to do this stuff in public.
Best take on the American gangland war event.
https://x.com/denisegi/status/1812334408310862261
The western media is truly pathetic (although adored on this site).
https://x.com/PalBint/status/1812607849370911138
Bean @ #653 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 10:15 am
“a scared, confused old man” – seriously? A guy who has been shot and missed death by 5 cms. stands up gives a power salute and says Fight!
This has drawn the wind out of the replace Biden sales and helps Joe’s strategy of hanging on until its too late to replace him.
C@tmomma says Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:04 am
I thought he was yelling F… You.
meher baba says Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:59 am
Ironically, if the shooter had used a hunting rifle he might have been more accurate.
BK 8.03am
[How long before Janet Albrechtsen describes this as a tactical pregnancy?]
Good one !
Republican U.S. Senator J.D. Vance, one of Donald Trump’s reported top picks for his vice presidential slot in his political campaign, is the subject of a rumor mill after “three black trucks with US government plates” arrived at his house, according to a news report.
Shawna Mizelle, 2024 political campaign reporter for CBS News, reported on Sunday that Vance was in his yard “when three black trucks with US government plates arrived.”
“The Senator has been floated as one of Trump’s VP picks and has had increased presence of law enforcement officers since the shooting,” the reporter wrote on social media.
During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Vance was an outspoken critic of Republican nominee Donald Trump. In a February 2016 USA Today column, he wrote that “Trump’s actual policy proposals, such as they are, range from immoral to absurd.” In the Atlantic and on the PBS show hosted by Charlie Rose, Vance called Trump “cultural heroin” and “an opioid of the masses.” In October 2016, he called Trump “reprehensible” in a post on Twitter,and called himself a “never-Trump guy.” In a private message on Facebook he called Trump “America’s Hitler”.
Bonza @ #656 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 10:31 am
Their window to change horses has closed. It was an incredibly narrow window in the first place.
538 podcast last week showed that most of the noise was coming from what they call moderate democrats. As in those in small margin seats in purple or red states, so the most likely to lose their seats. The progressive side of the party hadn’t come out hard against Biden, their seats are in deep blue states and on large margins. The Primary is where they’d lose their seats so coming out against their own sitting president would have been not as smart politically.
I think once the NATO event and the long form press conference was complete last week that was the final moment where the Dems could have switched out their candidate. Biden did ok. I saw that Bernie Sanders tweeted a rallying message after that, and in my opinion that was when the party had to come in behind Biden. The events of yesterday pretty much now make it impossible not to.
Donald Trump had the presence of mind to recognise a great photo opportunity…
I don’t think the Democrats can win with Biden. I also agree that it’s now virtually impossible to replace him.
It’s essentially Trump’s election to lose.
UK cartoons and other miscellany
Nick Newman
Guy Venables
Morten Morland
Benjamin Slyngstad
Matt Davies
Nick Newman
Garthtoons
Jonsey
Ella Baron
Mac
Morten Morland
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
OC, by pretty much every metric imaginable this failed attempt has worked amazingly for the Trump campaign
Biden will remain as a weak opponent
Trump is seen as a potential martyr and ongoing bulwark against the other (doesnt matter that the shooter is a republican, what matters is optics)
The comparison images between Trump and Biden further weakens Biden old man image
Reduction in funds for Democratic advertisement because of concerns from funders
etc etc
Man, not even the release of further proof that he is a rock spider has diminished his chances…
”
Bonzasays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 10:31 am
Prospective replacements for Biden are apparently standing down
https://x.com/facethenation/status/1812518504811163888?s=46&t=K6FGbp50eRxca8zB8gIl_A
”
If true, since it is due to shooting, could conspiracy theorists be right?
There is saying by American politicians: God bless America.
If so, God may not be willing
I’m not saying it’s impossible to view it as triumphant, I am just offering my view of it for whatever it’s worth.
If I am an undecided voter who thinks Trump is an anti democratic and extremist felon, but I also don’t want to vote for Biden, why would this motivate me to vote for Trump? Okay, he took a bullet to the ear, so what? I can see a world where undecided voters see this as proof he is dangerous.
We can shift the goalposts and say that unmotivated democrats and motivated trumpers would make him win but I don’t believe there’s enough of a Trump base to win a national election on it’s own and I think we’ve seen that in both elections.
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 10:00 am
Open carry likely means that concealed carry isn’t allowed.
So, not a big deal in a western democracy.
=============================================
So are you suggesting open carry means it would be ok to go into a shopping mall with a AK-14 on a shoulder strap. Yet if you had a pistol in you handbag it would be off to jail for you?
I think the question is rapidly becoming how many states Biden can win.
If he stays I’ll say:
Delaware 3
DC 3
Vermont 3
Maryland 10
New York 29
Connecticut 7
Rhode Island 4
New jersey 14
Massachusetts 11
Washington 12
Oregon 7
California 55
Hawaii 4
Total = 162
Friend pointed out, the shooter was shot pretty much after the shot was fired. If security was at all competent, those behind the podium would have known before they stood up and moved trump.
If that is the case the behavior of security around trump ( we will protect him with our bodies) and trump standing up fist in air ( making it impossible to protect him with their bodies), was all a pretty pathetic stunt, what were they thinking, Hollywood movie.
If they had ear pieces and been told the shooter was dead, it was all round pretty pathetic show really.
What about the women standing behind the suburban with hand gun drawn, what was she going to do, shoot the audience?
Bean @ #671 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 10:49 am
Are we into blaming the victim now (“He is a dangerous man because he was shot”)? – it is a small step to seeing it as a false flag.
How do we know that was blood and not ketchup on his ear?
How do we know that people were killed? – maybe they were Crisis Actors left over from Sandy Hook.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/14/elon-musk-billionaires-trump-shooting-dei-antifa/
“So are you suggesting open carry means it would be ok to go into a shopping mall with a AK-14 on a shoulder strap. Yet if you had a pistol in you handbag it would be off to jail for you?”
Well, people have turned up to state legislatures armed before today in the US. Rifles hanging off them and that has been ok according to the law apparently.
Fracking stupid laws.
I guess our Badthinker is missing the point here. A stadium full of hyped up people with any significant number carrying guns ….. maybe eager to be the “good guy with a gun” if something happens??
The potential for massive un-aimed crossfire in that situation is obvious.
Spain derail England’s luck-train and win Euro 2024
Spain defeated England 2-1 to crown themselves as the deserving Euro 2024 champions on July 15. Nico Williams and Mikel Oyarzabal netted goals a piece and England could only fight back with a sole Cole Palmer strike.
https://www.indiatoday.in/sports/football/story/euro-2024-final-spain-vs-england-nico-williams-lamine-yamal-harry-kane-berlin-2566785-2024-07-15
“Class beats luck, Panache beats big names and the best team wins their deserving credit. Luis de la Fuente’s Spain showed Gareth Southgate how simplicity and sticking to the basics can ensure you success. Spain clinched a 2-1 win over England on July 15 and ensured that there was no individual-English-brilliance standing in between them and that trophy which was always dying to have their name written on it.
The big final had all the signs of being a boring outing, atleast because of whatever unfolded in what was a blunt first 45 minutes of the game. While England stuck to their same old cautionary approach throughout the first-half, de la Fuente’s Spain were somewhat missing their usual clinical finesse. However, things took a sharp turn in the second-half as the slightest of tweaks saw an unprepared England backline concede a 47th minute goal by the pacey Nico Williams.
The least Southgate’s England could salvage from the match was Cole Palmer’s beautifully placed strike to bring his side back into the game. Although one can argue if the Three Lions even deserved that break, England did show some brief starry moments in that particular period of time. Ironically, Spain pulled one out of Southgate’s lucky-bag, as Mikel Oyarzabal netted a goal in the 86th minute and sealed the deserving win.”
MelbourneMammothsays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 5:46 pm
The least bad scenario for the Dems, if the shooter really came from the far right – but it still hands the White House to Trump on a platter.
All over red rover bar the shouting.
Imagine if it was a person of color, a woman or someone from the Left who did it. The GOP would be in power for the next 50 years.
==================================================
So instead of one right wing nut job trying to shoot another RWNJ. Lets imagine the preferred identity of the gun person that RWNJ’s would have liked.
Lets see, i will go with a member of a lizard people and antifa alliance all run out of a pizza shop in New York owned by Crooked Hilary. Also that Trump called her Crooked Hilary and the shooters surname Crooks was a big clue that Trump was already on to them.
Now my next bit of imaging is wondering what the song “Imagine” would be like if John Lennon combined it with the lyrics from “I Am the Walrus”.
frednk @ #674 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 10:59 am
And presumably the Secret Service had inside information that the shooter was a lone wolf. otherwise full security and body cover was required. Trumps lack of discipline here was telling but who knows how anyone would react after taking a head shot. Asking for your shoes is by no means the oddest thing I have heard a trauma victim ask for.
When JFK was shot, LBJ insisted on taking the oath immediately and high tailing it out of Dallas while RFK wanted his brother’s body returned to Washington while he was still the sworn president and LBJ to delay leaving Dallas.
LBJ, who apparently had a sense of history, allegedly replied that on the night Lincoln was shot assassination attempts were also made on the VP and Secretary of State – they had to get safely home to thwart any further conspiracy.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/donald-trump-democracy-dictator/679006/?gift=HQmp_BZdNOaSzplGoPQT3w3NvV_Tfg09-15e55nUI34&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social
I’m not really sure why we care about some breakaway colony. The King and Queen are on their way to bless us.
imacca @ #677 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 11:08 am
The scene in the Republican Convention hotel – apparently there was a dispute about who was paying for the breakfast flapjacks.
https://youtu.be/5pm8GITlc8M?si=QhmrZh3bvLGGJfTg
”
Confessionssays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:04 am
A chorus of right-leaning tech and business leaders, led by X owner Elon Musk, used their online megaphones in the wake of Saturday’s attack to criticize the Secret Service’s diversity initiatives, condemn Democratic donor Reid Hoffman, and make unsubstantiated allegations about the shooting.
The claims by powerful business leaders with large online followings helped influence the direction of platform itself, as well as the storylines viewed by millions of people. Musk’s post endorsing Trump after the shooting received the most engagement of any post on X related to the attempted assassination, said Graham Brookie, the Atlantic Council’s vice president for technology programs and strategy. The post received more than 118 million views and 332,000 retweets, surpassing a post from Barack Obama that said there was “no place” for violence in democracy. By Saturday night, the terms “Deep State” and “antifa” were among the top trending topics across X, formerly known as Twitter.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/14/elon-musk-billionaires-trump-shooting-dei-antifa/
”
Biden is metaphorically “dead in the water”.
Unless Biden is admitted in “Walter Mead Centre” with serious illness and wirhdraws from race, America will be a dictatorship(as Trump wants to be) from day 1 of Trump Presidency.
In a country that allows and encouraged the ownership of guns, sells ammunition from vending machines, emphasizes radical, coloured haired, unfit misfits to public office and has a media that does everything except tell the truth, why is anyone surprised that a deluded youth would attempt the murder of a well known sex offender and criminal selling snake oil remedies at a public rally ?
Dangerous people are mostly precluded from public office in most places!
And the current leader proclaims that “any violence is unacceptable” , in country that is beset with murders and murderers.
The commentary surrounding this unfortunate showground stunt is appalling and is not confined to commentators from the unfortunate tote gun carrying “greatest nation on Earth”.
(if you survive long enough to believe it)
The USA is off the rails, with a complete lack of self awareness of itself as a nation The USA and it’s citizens should be made aware of it many foibles.
The USA is more often than not the first to judge other countries.
The pandering to the USA by our politicians, more often than not Liberals, has become a issue of concern and should be discussed.
The USA has performed many great services for other countries but needs to told that its “halo is slipping”.
It should be told loudly and by its citizens that it’s time “to have a good look at itself”.
Just as any wayward youth would be told.
I think this shooting will shake Trump’s confidence. It might have looked good to holding up your fist bit that is the effect of adrenaline. I think that next time he’s out and about at one of his Maga meetings he will most likely be jumping at shadows and I wouldn’t blame him, obviously his form of populism unleashes some horrible negative energy.
Yes goll, only the Liberals pander to the US 😉
All I see is wet lettuce leaves being waved around and stalling until Netanyahu finishes the job. Sickening.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:28 am
[Yes goll, only the Liberals pander to the US]
I didn’t say that.
“more often than not Liberals,”
Goll, please point out where the Labor party has not been in lockstep with the Liberals regarding our relationship with the US
Rex Douglas 12.33 am,
[All I see is wet lettuce leaves being waved around and stalling until Netanyahu finishes the job. Sickening.]
What do you propose Rex Douglas ?
goll
Sanctions
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:43 am
“more often than not Liberals,”
[Goll, please point out where the Labor party has not been in lockstep with the Liberals regarding our relationship with the US]
Lordy, you can point out where I’m not correct in suggesting “mainly Liberals”
goll… you made the original claim that the Liberals are the ones that mainly kiss up the to states
Basic logic decrees its on you to justify and or provide evidence
gollsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:18 am
Dangerous people are mostly precluded from public office in most places!
And the current leader proclaims that “any violence is unacceptable” , in country that is beset with murders and murderers.
—
I saw a US report on ABC today that said 10 % of people in a poll said they advocated for the use of violence to take out Trump and 17 % were ok with the use of violence to take out Biden. What a screwed up State of politics the US has become. Lets hope the nutters on the left and right of politics here don’t get a hold in Australia as a good place to start using violence as a political tool.
Meanwhile, we only have to look at the behaviour of the CFMEU in Victoria to see violence, intimidation and bullying being openly and flagrantly used as a tool already – if that creeps into national politics we are in for a rough ride.
gollsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:18 am
Dangerous people are mostly precluded from public office in most places!
And the current leader proclaims that “any violence is unacceptable” , in country that is beset with murders and murderers.
—
I saw a US report on ABC today that said 10 % of people in a poll said they advocated for the use of violence to take out Trump and 17 % were ok with the use of violence to take out Biden. What a screwed up State of politics the US has become. Lets hope the nutters on the left and right of politics here don’t get a hold in Australia as a good place to start using violence as a political tool.
Meanwhile, we only have to look at the behaviour of the CFMEU in Victoria to see violence, intimidation and bullying being openly and flagrantly used as a tool already – if that creeps into national politics we are in for a rough ride.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:45 am
goll
[Sanctions]
What sanctions and enforced by whom?