Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 21
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  1. All I see is the Greens astroturfing sectarian hatred by studiously ignoring the genocidal inclinations and behaviours of Heshbollah, the Houthis, Iran and Hamas…

    …and being really, truly horrified that they might be wedged by their own squalid wedgie.

    …always noting that Israeli leadership has also expressed genocidal visions and is killing civilians at a disproportionate rate* and imposing a de facto blockade on needed foods, energy, medicine and water supplies.

    *much to the approval of Hamas which sees civilian casualties as a useful lever in the information wars against Israel.

  2. Jacinta Allan says she’s asked Labor’s national executive to immediately suspend the CFMEU construction division from the Victorian party. All political donations from the union have also been banned during this period.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) July 15, 2024

    She has also referred the allegations reported by Nine newspapers to Victoria Police and the state’s anti-corruption watchdog.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) July 15, 2024

  3. The Victorian government is also planning to toughen anti-bikie laws to “prevent certain individuals from associating with each other”. It will also request the feds to “review and if necessary terminate” CFMEU EBAs on Victorian construction sites.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) July 15, 2024

    Allan says an independent review will be established to “strengthen the power of Victorian government agencies who are engaged with construction companies and construction unions”. Will be led by an expert and in consultation with the feds.— Benita Kolovos (@benitakolovos) July 15, 2024

    Yeah this is a planned & co-ordinated hit on the CFMEU, in the same fashion as the hit on the Somyurek power structure.

  4. Sandman @ #696 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 11:49 am

    gollsays:

    I saw a US report on ABC today that said 10 % of people in a poll said they advocated for the use of violence to take out Trump and 17 % were ok with the use of violence to take out Biden. What a screwed up State of politics the US has become. Lets hope the nutters on the left and right of politics here don’t get a hold in Australia as a good place to start using violence as a political tool.

    In any population sample of humans 10% slips into the crazy pile more often than not. Then the 30/30/30 rule* applies. 30%will always be with you, 30% will always be against you, and 30% can be convinced either way.

    *not an actual rule.

  5. Rex
    I had a not very encouraging conversation with a Palestinian in Australia via Lebanon.

    I suggested that the plight of women and children, in Gaza particularly, is “just the worst” and all efforts should be made to end the fighting.
    The person agreed, however added some difficult conditions and comments.
    This conversation occurred about the last time Hezbollah threw another five hundred or so bombs over the fence in one day and “bragged about it”.
    (I know Hezbollah is located elsewhere)
    The person said that the only solution was for Israel to be “decommissioned” or “got rid of”.
    (My response to myself was “that’s not likely”.
    Again I questioned the deaths, hunger and despair in all of this.
    The response was “its God’s will”.
    I didn’t respond and saying to myself FFS finished the conversation.

    To suggest a possible solution to Gaza and surrounds is to deny the ability of “human beings” to inflict suffering despair and hatred upon each other.

    I don’t know what solution could fix the Israel/Palestinian “fault lines” and doubt that more sanctions could be imposed on both sides of the “confusion” to achieve something better.(any sanctions will cause more suffering for those in greater need)

    I wish someone had the solution.

  6. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 11:10 am

    And presumably the Secret Service had inside information that the shooter was a lone wolf. otherwise full security and body cover was required. Trumps lack of discipline here was telling but who knows how anyone would react after taking a head shot. Asking for your shoes is by no means the oddest thing I have heard a trauma victim ask for.
    ===================================================

    Feel a bit sorry for the USA secret service. Sort of damned if they do or don’t situation. If they took out a gunmen before they had fired. They could be accused of killing someone who was just exercising their 2nd Amendment rights.

  7. goll

    Perhaps a UN peacekeeping force occupation.

    But, yes, religious extremism is the evil in that part of the world.

  8. ‘Diogenes says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 12:18 pm

    Isn’t some of this anti-bikie legislation guilt by association? It seems a bit iffy to me.’
    ———————-
    That is, I believe, why Canberra lacks anti bikie legislation which seem to me to be a re-invention of the old consorting laws. The company you keep.

    https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/open_government/inform/act_government_media_releases/gordon-ramsay-mla-media-releases/2019/policing-and-laws-are-working-effectively-against-bikie-gang-activity-in-canberra

  9. frednk says Monday, July 15, 2024 at 10:59 am

    Friend pointed out, the shooter was shot pretty much after the shot was fired. If security was at all competent, those behind the podium would have known before they stood up and moved trump.

    If that is the case the behavior of security around trump ( we will protect him with our bodies) and trump standing up fist in air ( making it impossible to protect him with their bodies), was all a pretty pathetic stunt, what were they thinking, Hollywood movie.

    If they had ear pieces and been told the shooter was dead, it was all round pretty pathetic show really.

    What about the women standing behind the suburban with hand gun drawn, what was she going to do, shoot the audience?

    I would imagine it’s probably pretty much SOP, except Trump stopping and raising his fist. They don’t know if there are other shooters out there.

  10. Kostakidis reports a relevant statement by Heshbollah in the context of some of the Bludger commentary on the general topic.

    I have no difficulties with the notion that Kostakidis reports the words of the Heshbollah leader and cannot understand how that might, per se, be anti-semitic. I would have thought that it is the sort of Heshbollah statement that the Bandicoot should be paying more attention to.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/15/mary-kostakidis-racial-discrimination-complaint-zionist-federation-of-australia-ntwnfb

  11. I guess ‘superfans’ is a more polite term than cult members.

    The superfans who gather on the causeway near Mar-a-Lago whenever Trump is in town showed up in Palm Beach on Sunday to rally for the former president.

    As she held up a Trump flag and waved to people driving by, Angela Rotella got emotional remembering Trump ducking to the ground after a shooter fired toward the stage at his rally.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/14/trump-shooting-news-thomas-matthew-crooks-investigation/#link-M2WS3TADI5GBZL3JXNKCGB4C2Y

  12. The Age 15/07
    Washington: US President Joe Biden faces a delicate balancing act as America reels from the attempted assassination of his biggest
    political rival.
    In the aftermath of the shooting, the Biden campaign paused “outbound communications” and tried to quickly take down television attack ads targeting Trump.
    _____________________
    They can’t go down that route anymore. All attack ads need to stop right now.
    De Niro wanting to punch his face in, Pelosi saying he needs to be stopped at all costs.
    People will come down on them like a ton of bricks if they continue on with that strategy.

  13. Confessions @ #673 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 11:04 am

    A chorus of right-leaning tech and business leaders, led by X owner Elon Musk, used their online megaphones in the wake of Saturday’s attack to criticize the Secret Service’s diversity initiatives, condemn Democratic donor Reid Hoffman, and make unsubstantiated allegations about the shooting.

    The claims by powerful business leaders with large online followings helped influence the direction of platform itself, as well as the storylines viewed by millions of people. Musk’s post endorsing Trump after the shooting received the most engagement of any post on X related to the attempted assassination, said Graham Brookie, the Atlantic Council’s vice president for technology programs and strategy. The post received more than 118 million views and 332,000 retweets, surpassing a post from Barack Obama that said there was “no place” for violence in democracy. By Saturday night, the terms “Deep State” and “antifa” were among the top trending topics across X, formerly known as Twitter.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/07/14/elon-musk-billionaires-trump-shooting-dei-antifa/

    Who even follows that sewer pipe of social media anymore, unless your brain is broken!?!

  14. Taylormade @ #715 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 12:31 pm

    The Age 15/07
    Washington: US President Joe Biden faces a delicate balancing act as America reels from the attempted assassination of his biggest
    political rival.
    In the aftermath of the shooting, the Biden campaign paused “outbound communications” and tried to quickly take down television attack ads targeting Trump.
    _____________________
    They can’t go down that route anymore. All attack ads need to stop right now.
    De Niro wanting to punch his face in, Peliso saying he needs to be stopped at all costs.
    People will come down on them like a ton of bricks if they continue on with that strategy.

    Wouldn’t have stopped the Trump camp though, if the shoe had been on the other foot.

  15. Taylormade

    Both the Dems and MAGA are a disgrace. An utter fcken disgrace.

    That country is broken, anyway you look at it.

    Fck them.

  16. Taylormade

    “All attack ads need to stop right now.”

    They did, the instant Trump was shot. Not sure where we go from here

  17. Nth America is such a beautiful country. Naturally spectacular.

    So sad that the politics has ruined US society.

  18. The Democrats can still attack Trump, Starting with gun safety. The GOP wants to talk about preventing violence take them up on it.

    Yes I know it’s the US. However the point remains the Democrats under Biden are the ones that have been talking about preventing people being shot.

  19. “They can’t go down that route anymore. All attack ads need to stop right now.
    De Niro wanting to punch his face in, Peliso saying he needs to be stopped at all costs.
    People will come down on them like a ton of bricks if they continue on with that strategy.”

    Certainly pause attack adds, but getting shot at does not confer some kind of immunity on Trump from the truth.

    The Dems will have to campaign hard to get out the vote on the basis of just how bad Trump will be if re-elected, and what a fundamental threat to democracy that would be.

    Its known from the positions Trump has already announced, the “Project 2025” stuff, and the stacking of SCOTUS / Immunity to Prosecution thing.

    The Right Wing in the US is running a very significant campaign against what passes for Democracy in the US, and the Rule of Law.

  20. When the shoe was on the other foot.

    When a madman hammered nearly to death the husband of then–House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump jeered and mocked. One of Trump’s sons and other close Trump supporters avidly promoted false claims that Paul Pelosi had somehow brought the onslaught upon himself through a sexual misadventure.

    After authorities apprehended a right-wing-extremist plot to abduct Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Trump belittled the threat at a rally. He disparaged Whitmer as a political enemy. His supporters chanted “Lock her up.” Trump laughed and replied, “Lock them all up.”

    Fascism feasts on violence. In the years since his own supporters attacked the Capitol to overturn the 2020 election—many of them threatening harm to Speaker Pelosi and Vice President Mike Pence—Trump has championed the invaders, would-be kidnappers, and would-be murderers as martyrs and hostages. He has vowed to pardon them if returned to office. His own staffers have testified to the glee with which Trump watched the mayhem on television.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/donald-trump-democracy-dictator/679006/?gift=HQmp_BZdNOaSzplGoPQT3w3NvV_Tfg09-15e55nUI34&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social

  21. “Thanks for that, bc. And there goes the last leg the Radical Right apologists were standing on.”

    Interesting. Shows the value of waiting for the FBI to actually come out with their own take on who the guy was and what his connections were before making judgements.

  22. I’ve removed the content of my post above as I have seen other documents with the address of the $15 donor being the same as the shooter.

  23. Taylormade @ #715 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 12:31 pm

    The Age 15/07
    Washington: US President Joe Biden faces a delicate balancing act as America reels from the attempted assassination of his biggest
    political rival.
    In the aftermath of the shooting, the Biden campaign paused “outbound communications” and tried to quickly take down television attack ads targeting Trump.
    _____________________
    They can’t go down that route anymore. All attack ads need to stop right now.
    De Niro wanting to punch his face in, Peliso saying he needs to be stopped at all costs.
    People will come down on them like a ton of bricks if they continue on with that strategy.
    =======================================================

    It was a RWNJ trying to shoot another RWNJ. It has as much to do with the Democrats as a Liberal staffer raping another Liberal staffer has to do with the ALP.

  24. Dutton?

    Dutton is currently blocking NDIS reform, the provision of social housing and electoral reform. Dutton used the support of Bandt to delay AAT reform. He used the support of Bandt to delay corruption reform. Dutton used the support of Bandt to delay, and currently block, support for social housing. Dutton has blocked religious discrimination reform. Dutton opposed the reform of the S3 tax cuts. Dutton, with the part-time help of the Bandicoot, scuttled the Voice. Dutton opposed increases in the basic wage. Dutton has promised an uncosted nuclear power station. Dutton has walked away from Australia’s Paris Accords. He is supporting Chrisafulli’s promise to jail ten year olds for life. Dutton routinely attacks minorities, most recently muslims.

    Dutton is Trump without the Orange Hair.

  25. Dutton can’t connect with people the way Trump has.

    Not in the same stratosphere when it comes to grifting support.

  26. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 12:39 pm
    Diogenes @ #705 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 12:18 pm

    Isn’t some of this anti-bikie legislation guilt by association? It seems a bit iffy to me.

    That’s a quaint pov, Dio. You don’t get to become a member of an Outlaw Motorcycle Gang by helping little old ladies across the street.
    ====================================================

    No doubt outlaw bikie gangs are involved in lots of illegal activity. Yet “Diogenes: does have a point. We can’t just lock up people for associating with them. So far most of the allegations against the CFMEU are more guilt by association than allegations of actual illegal criminal activity.

    As you yourself pointed out the other day the former leader of the Victorian Liberal party Matthew Guy was observed associating with known gangsters. It also, like with the CFMEU, wasn’t a good look. Yet nobody was suggesting Matthew Guy did anything illegal by doing so. In my opinion the CFMEU should have the same presumption of innocence until actual allegation of illegal criminal activity is shown.

  27. Oh dear in Entropy’s world everything equates at some level to Higgins / Lehrmann even an attempted assasination in PA.

    Case study in the dangers of obsessiveness.

  28. Dutton can’t connect with people the way Trump has.
    Not in the same stratosphere when it comes to grifting support.

    Seriously?
    Dutts was a detective 6 years in his twenties and been in Federal Parliament 23 years and a Minister for 11, but he can’t connect with people?

  29. So far most of the allegations against the CFMEU are more guilt by association than allegations of actual illegal criminal activity.

    Union organisers getting kickbacks from Big Build contractors. That’s not where taxpayers money should be going.

  30. I hope humour is allowable now, after the event.

    So, I heard this comment in the car about the bullet grazing of Trump’s ear:

    ‘Funny way to get a piercing’. 😐

  31. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:12 pm
    Oh dear in Entropy’s world everything equates at some level to Higgins / Lehrmann even an attempted assasination in PA.

    Case study in the dangers of obsessiveness.
    =========================================

    While cyberstalking is not?

  32. Dutton can only connect with people who aren’t dead to him, like most of us including elements of the Liberal party.

    Badthinker is one of his cronies in his office

  33. Entropy @ #736 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 1:11 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 12:39 pm
    Diogenes @ #705 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 12:18 pm

    Isn’t some of this anti-bikie legislation guilt by association? It seems a bit iffy to me.

    That’s a quaint pov, Dio. You don’t get to become a member of an Outlaw Motorcycle Gang by helping little old ladies across the street.
    ====================================================

    No doubt outlaw bikie gangs are involved in lots of illegal activity. Yet “Diogenes: does have a point. We can’t just lock up people for associating with them. So far most of the allegations against the CFMEU are more guilt by association than allegations of actual illegal criminal activity.

    As you yourself pointed out the other day the former leader of the Victorian Liberal party Matthew Guy was observed associating with known gangsters. It also, like with the CFMEU, wasn’t a good look. Yet nobody was suggesting Matthew Guy did anything illegal by doing so. In my opinion the CFMEU should have the same presumption of innocence until actual allegation of illegal criminal activity is shown.

    I think there’s hard evidence behind the allegations. Have you listened to the secretly recorded phone conversations that were had with a fixer, who has known associations with OMCGs, and an undercover agent for the police, who were conducting the sting operation?

    Plus, John Setka doesn’t just resign from his position with the Victorian branch of the CFMEU over a nothingburger. Then the national board of the CFMEU puts the Victorian branch into immediate administration.

    To use a quotation you might understand, ‘There’s no smoke without fire.’

  34. Entropy @ #741 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 1:19 pm

    Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:12 pm
    Oh dear in Entropy’s world everything equates at some level to Higgins / Lehrmann even an attempted assasination in PA.

    Case study in the dangers of obsessiveness.
    =========================================

    While internet stalking is not?

    I’m sorry you have to put up with this hyper obsessive individual now. He always needs someone from the Progressive side of politics to target, in the empty space where a healthy life should be.

  35. Comparing Dutton to Trump gives them both too much credit. They are similar in the sense that they are both chronic liars and truth avoiders and just straight up racist, but it’s also the bog standard stuff we have seen from the Liberal party since at least Howard, nothing new about it.

  36. Bean @ #745 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 1:25 pm

    Comparing Dutton to Trump gives them both too much credit. They are similar in the sense that they are both chronic liars and truth avoiders and just straight up racist, but it’s also the bog standard stuff we have seen from the Liberal party since at least Howard, nothing new about it.

    That’s exactly right. Also, using every page out of the Tony Abbott playbook. With the forward written by Gina Reinhart.

  37. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:20 pm
    Entropy @ #736 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 1:11 pm

    I think there’s hard evidence behind the allegations. Have you listened to the secretly recorded phone conversations that were had with a fixer, who has known associations with OMCGs, and an undercover agent for the police, who were conducting the sting operation?

    Plus, John Setka doesn’t just resign from his position with the Victorian branch of the CFMEU over a nothingburger. Then the national board of the CFMEU puts the Victorian branch into immediate administration.

    To use a quotation you might understand, ‘There’s no smoke without fire.’
    ================================================

    No doubt actual criminal activity may be shown. So far i haven’t heard anything that was actually spelled out. What the criminal charges actually are though?

    I think in Matthew Guy’s case his association with gangsters wasn’t illegal. So in that case there possibly was smoke without fire.

    While Amanda Vanstone on the other hand might just have been lucky there wasn’t a Federal NACC around in her time.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/mafia-godfathers-son-in-australian-rome-embassy-under-amanda-vanstone-20150626-ghydoo.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/29/four-corners-reveals-how-calabrian-mafia-aligned-itself-with-australian-mps

  38. Plus, John Setka doesn’t just resign from his position with the Victorian branch of the CFMEU over a nothingburger. Then the national board of the CFMEU puts the Victorian branch into immediate administration.

    Kabuki theatre.
    Hawke did the same re Norm Gallagher.
    40 years later, what’s changed?
    If the BLF targeted your site and the relevant workers wouldn’t sign up, that site wouldn’t receive bricks or blocks until they did.
    Still happening in Melbourne?.

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