Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 21
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  1. Dutton is playing by Trump’s playbook. Racism, targeting minorities, victimizing kids, cheap shots at his political enemies, populist policy brainfarts, destroying climate action, dictatorial behaviour inside his own party…
    …it is all there.

  2. With the RNC, does it start tomorrow midday our time? And when are we expecting Trump to speak our time? Wednesday?

  3. Then no he isn’t playing by Trump’s playbook. The only thing I would say Trump does differently than your standard Republican is that he openly attacks and denigrates his foes whether they are within his party or without.
    Everything else is just charisma which Dutton sorely lacks because he can’t get animated about anything except at the thought of another asylum seeker catching a preventable disease or Gina Rinehart saying she’s proud of him

  4. Entropy, one of the robodebt suicides followed a visit by a couple of bike gang members who had been employed by a debt collector.

  5. Boerwar
    For what it’s worth, I think your take on the middle east situation this morning was about as thoughtful, fair minded and accurate as anyone can be in the circumstances. You see the faults on both sides as well as the overall futility of it all. I cannot see how it can ever be resolved either.

  6. It is no accident that Morrison/Dutton in part got the heave ho because they generated a visceral revulsion in women.

    They were nowhere near Trump’s pussy grabbing boastful standards. In public. But in private is the pattern one of respect?

    But Tudge, Porter, Higgins, Lehrmann, Reynolds, Banks, Hughes, Andrews, the tawdry treatment of Julie Bishop, an unnamed senior cabinet minister, Morrison, the desk masturbation, the paid sex workers in monkey pod room, the snarks at ‘quota girls’, the attempt by Abbott to ban the morning after pill, the stalking of Gillard by two senior ministers in the corridors (yes I know who you are), the sexual harassment of Thorpe in the House, Morrison’s political ‘use’ of his wife and daughters, the accusations that asylum women were having babies to evade the blockade by you know who…

  7. ‘Bystander says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 2:11 pm

    Boerwar
    For what it’s worth, I think your take on the middle east situation this morning was about as thoughtful, fair minded and accurate as anyone can be in the circumstances. You see the faults on both sides as well as the overall futility of it all. I cannot see how it can ever be resolved either.’
    ———————
    Thanks.

  8. Granny Annysays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 2:11 pm
    Entropy, one of the robodebt suicides followed a visit by a couple of bike gang members who had been employed by a debt collector.
    ============================================

    Thanks, i posted something the other day. On the debt collecting agencies involved in the LNP’s robodebt scheme using bikie gang members. Though i didn’t remember, from the robodebt RC, that an actual robodebt related suicide was linked directly to their use.

  9. Entropysays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:38 pm
    I think in Matthew Guy’s case his association with gangsters wasn’t illegal. So in that case there possibly was smoke without fire.
    _____________________
    Hallelujah.

  10. Hello, woman here. There’s a word that comes immediately to mind when I think about Peter Dutton. Intimidatory. I get really bad Coercive Control vibes from him.

  11. Entropy @ #753 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 1:55 pm

    Packaging company Visy had contractual arrangements with the Hells Angel. Again a very bad look. Did any charges eventuate from it though?

    https://www.packagingnews.co.uk/news/visy-employs-hells-angels-as-debt-collectors-15-05-2012

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/visy-uses-bikies-as-debt-collectors/news-story/d023522a1cbb556079ef65dfbbfe07c7

    Doesn’t make it right. It can be morally wrong but not illegal, per se.

  12. aylormadesays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 2:35 pm
    Entropysays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:38 pm
    I think in Matthew Guy’s case his association with gangsters wasn’t illegal. So in that case there possibly was smoke without fire.
    _____________________
    Hallelujah.
    ===================================================

    It still wasn’t a good look. He was technically allowed to ask and receive donations from them. If he had taken the donations on the understanding he would have done certain things for them, had he become Premier. That would have been illegal. I don’t believe there was any evidence that such an undertaking occurred.

    Though while a potential future Premier wining and dining with known gangsters is not illegal. It is hardly something that should be encouraged either. Which also applies to John Setka and the Victorian CFMEU. If no proof of any actual criminal charges eventuate here?

    Note: John Setkta is a nasty violent individual. I think it far more likely he would enter into a criminal arrangement than say Matthew Guy. The problem is always finding enough proof to charge someone with a criminal arrangement though.

  13. We had 3 black swan events in a very short period of time that completely derailed Biden campaign.
    1. Horrible ‘deer in the head light’ performance in ‘The Debate’

    2. Supreme Court immunity to Trump regarding everything he did while he was POTUS. (Rachel Maddow said that Supreme Court gave 110% of what Trump lawyers asked for)

    3. Assasination attempt on Trump

    To survive 1 black swan event is difficult when Trump is opponent( it is like scoring 40 runs in 2 overs in T20 match with Wade and Cummins batting)
    Now replacements to Biden are packing up bags.

  14. NSW had to have two go’s at this

    Dont they have these laws in SA and QLD as well. You’d like to think Vic can get a hole in one.

  15. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 2:43 pm
    Entropy @ #753 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 1:55 pm

    Packaging company Visy had contractual arrangements with the Hells Angel. Again a very bad look. Did any charges eventuate from it though?

    https://www.packagingnews.co.uk/news/visy-employs-hells-angels-as-debt-collectors-15-05-2012

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/visy-uses-bikies-as-debt-collectors/news-story/d023522a1cbb556079ef65dfbbfe07c7
    ===============================================

    Doesn’t make it right. It can be morally wrong but not illegal, per se.
    ======================================================

    It sure can be, though it doesn’t seem to have effected the Pratt families reputation.

    It was Nick McKenzie who broke some of these stories too.

    “CORPORATE giant and major political donor Visy Industries employs a trucking company run by a convicted drug trafficker and founding chapter boss of the Hells Angels outlaw motorcycle group.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/visy-linked-to-angels-bikie-boss-20090705-d96y.html

  16. Lars Von Trier @ #765 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 2:13 pm

    c@t and Entropy – go full whataboutism on the CFMEU. Hilarious !

    Not sure exactly what you are referring to…. but I have a whatabout. Any close look at the CFMEU should definitely be broad and take in what the Productivity Commission squibbed. A full look at why construction takes so long and costs so much in Australia. To do that, you have to look at Unions but very much also at private companies, at competition (or the lack of it) and the role government can play and the role they shouldn’t play. There is ample data – you can start with the BER and just get bigger from there. How companies (and unions) and political parties interact wrt construction and public money and donations. How the civil service and regulators deal with government projects (PPPs, contracts, imbedded cosy relationships with the private realm). Planning laws. Much better environment laws (stronger, yes, but more importantly clearer and upfront and early) and how and why some developers and government departments decide to start down an expensive design option that clearly doesnt meet the rules but get to a point the rules have to be bent because of the immense waste of money and time that a refusal would create). Supply chains. Subcontracting. Offshoring.

    Go for gold on this one because it has been avoided for so long and it will pay for itself.

  17. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 2:43 pm
    c@t and Entropy – go full whataboutism on the CFMEU. Hilarious !
    ==================================================

    Actually if you read back. You’ll find i was supporting this statement:

    “Diogenessays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 12:18 pm
    Isn’t some of this anti-bikie legislation guilt by association? It seems a bit iffy to me.”

    While C@T was more of an opposing view.

    So we were just discussing aspects of it. Myself doing so by looking at how the law treated similar like examples in the past.

    Though what i find more amusing. Is someone who has only made two posts i’ve seen today. Each attacking me over something different. The first post accusing me of obsession on one topic. The second accusing me of something else on an entirely different topic. Which does seem to suggest there is a person with an obsession but it is not me. I appear just to be the subject of it.

    “Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:12 pm
    Oh dear in Entropy’s world everything equates at some level to Higgins / Lehrmann even an attempted assasination in PA.

    Case study in the dangers of obsessiveness.”

  18. I reckon there’s fire as well as smoke for the Labor Party in the Higgins/Reynolds defamation Trial
    18 days to go, unless Higgins can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get another postponement?

  19. Badthinkersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 3:38 pm
    I reckon there’s fire as well as smoke for the Labor Party in the Higgins/Reynolds defamation Trial
    18 days to go, unless Higgins can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get another postponement?
    =============================================

    Do you also still believe the shooter is a member of “antifa” too?

  20. Shellbell (and Dio)

    Further to your comments on bikie laws, I have a friend who lectures in justice in Qld who had a similar view. As he put it “not all bikies are criminals and not all criminals are bikies”.

    Such laws often run foul of anti-discrimination laws and can come unstuck in appeals. They can and have had negative consequences.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7894228/qld-gang-consorting-laws-to-be-reviewed/

    If behaviour such as what was shown on TV Sunday night is in evidence it should be possible to investigate and prosecute them under existing laws, especially under current organised crime laws.

    In organised crime, as in corporate crime, it is rarely legal powers that are lacking. It is far more often political will and adequate prosecution resources.

    Witness the lame conclusion to the RC into banking. Numerous examples of money laundering were recorded. That is an offence carrying a five to ten year sentence under federal law. Not a single banking executive was prosecuted as far as I know.

    That being said, I applaud Vic Labor and the ACTU/CFMEU for suspending the Victorian branch and reporting allegations to the police. Lets hope for some follow through. Offences are unlikely to be limited to union officials.

  21. In your dreams Badthinker. Reynolds might have been able to dodge scrutiny in the Senate by taking leave but she won’t be able to do that while a Senior Council gets stuck into her at the trial. I don’t think she is very bright and her bullshit will be easy to expose.

  22. Bad Thinker – this whole sorry Lehrmann business looks like a case of Liberals behaving badly. They didn’t need Labor’s help. In what way do you believe Labor to be involved?

  23. 18 more sleeps and we find out, steve777.
    Let’s be frank, do you think Labor was a winner or a loser from the Higgins publicity leading up to the ’22 Election?

  24. ”…do you think Labor was a winner or a loser from the Higgins publicity leading up to the ’22 Election?”

    It had little to do with the result. Few if any voters were thinking about it in the voting booth.

  25. Badthinkersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 4:03 pm
    18 more sleeps and we find out, steve777.
    Let’s be frank, do you think Labor was a winner or a loser from the Higgins publicity leading up to the ’22 Election?
    =============================================

    Labor is a winner when Liberals show they are misogynistic in general. As a known Dutton supporter on this blog. Your posts which often contain blatantly misogynistic statements. I guess could be seen as a positive for Labor too.

  26. I thought Biden did quite well in the pressers immediately after the shooting. But I just watched his Oval Office briefing and, well, man it is hard to stay engaged with him even on matters of such gravity and even with good speech writers putting up good verse on the prompter. And if you arent engaged, I am not sure how you get excited and then excite and energize others. And especially unsure how you change minds and swing voters.

  27. ‘Team Katich says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 4:24 pm

    I thought Biden did quite well in the pressers immediately after the shooting. But I just watched his Oval Office briefing and, well, man it is hard to stay engaged with him even on matters of such gravity and even with good speech writers putting up good verse on the prompter. And if you arent engaged, I am not sure how you get excited and then excite and energize others. And especially unsure how you change minds and swing voters.’
    ————————
    Yep.

  28. Badthinker, the rape of a liberal staffer by a liberal rising star had no affect on the 2022 election because there wasn’t much known about it.

    However, 2025 will be a very different matter. Expect headlines about what a bunch of mysoginus lying a%$*&oles make up the federal liberal party. I reckon Reynolds will be copping a bit of stick from fellow liberals for not letting this matter fade away. Thanks to her, it will be fresh in voters minds come election day.

  29. What do Labor voters say about Fatima Payman, little Emma Husar and the late Kelly Hoare?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_Hoare
    excerpt:

    After being replaced by Combet, allegations of sexual misconduct against Hoare were leaked to the Murdoch media. In her final speech to parliament in June 2007, she stated she was “disgusted by the vile way in which I have been treated by people from whom I should have been able to expect greater decency, loyalty and support” and that there was “nothing voluntary about my departure from this parliament”.

    Misogyny, eh?

  30. Granny:
    Badthinker, the rape of a liberal staffer by a liberal rising star had no affect on the 2022 election because there wasn’t much known about it.
    Only if you are a penguin living on Macquarie Island.
    Otherwise, it was all over the Australian Media for 15 months before the ’22 Election.

  31. “In May 2007 she publicly stated she was undergoing counselling after she “allegedly demanded sex from a government driver”

  32. Liberal Higgins, Liberal Cash, Liberal Morrison, Liberal Lehrmann were the final few paragraphs in ten years of persistent and consistent Liberal Party misogny.

    This did not help.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/an-internal-review-by-the-wa-nationals-party-has-found-a-confidential-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-against-barnaby-joyce-was-compromised-by-political-interference-by-the-party/video/fbee3e389b855ad3cd8edc16f3b8d686

    It is interesting that the Coalition still seems to be fixated on trying to blame Labor for its man problem.

  33. If that’s the case Badthinker at 4.33pm, then the Liberals have no one to blame but themselves. They obviously didn’t assess Lehrmann’s character very well before hiring him.

  34. Realistically given the Labor lean of Morgan this could be as bad as 48 or 49 for Labor.

    Absent a major game changer event Labor is slumping to defeat.

    Expect sub 30 primary in the next newspoll as confirmation.

  35. Entropy @ #775 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 3:25 pm

    Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 2:43 pm
    c@t and Entropy – go full whataboutism on the CFMEU. Hilarious !
    ==================================================

    Actually if you read back. You’ll find i was supporting this statement.

    “Diogenessays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 12:18 pm
    Isn’t some of this anti-bikie legislation guilt by association? It seems a bit iffy to me.”

    While C@T was more of an opposing view.

    So we were just discussing aspects of it. Myself doing so by looking at how the law treated similar like examples in the past.

    Though what i find more amusing. Is someone who has only made two posts i’ve seen today. Each attacking me over something different. The first post accusing me of obsession on one topic. The second accusing me of something else on an entirely different topic. Which does seem to suggest there is a person with an obsession but it is not me. I appear just to be the subject of it.

    “Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 1:12 pm
    Oh dear in Entropy’s world everything equates at some level to Higgins / Lehrmann even an attempted assasination in PA.

    Case study in the dangers of obsessiveness.”

    I see Lars Von Trier has been contributing less than zero to the conversation. As per usual. 😐

  36. Yes, thanks HH. Bit early tonight.
    Roy Morgan out.

    * ALP 31% (up 2.5)
    * LNP 37.5% (down 2)
    * GRN 12.5% (down 1)
    * ONP 5% (no change)
    * Others/Indies 14% (up 0.5)

    Poll Period: Jul 8-14
    Sample: 1758 (Huge sample)

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