Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:
• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.
• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.
• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.
• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.
Will anyone be preferencing Labor next time, after the last 3 years of Infamy?
I’m thinking they’ll drop back to their natural level, say, 66 Seats.
Here Lordbain, gosh, a poll for me is like keeping a dog from a bone.
Decent uptick for the ALP
Primary support for the Coalition dropped 2% to 37.5% this week while the ALP increased 2.5% to 31%. Support for the Greens was down 1% to 12.5%.
nadia88 and Lars Von Trier are going to be so unhappy that the Labor PV has not sunk below 30%. 😐
Morgan has gone nuclear.
Granny Annysays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 4:44 pm
If that’s the case Badthinker at 4.33pm, then the Liberals have no one to blame but themselves. They obviously didn’t assess Lehrmann’s character very well before hiring him.
=================================================
Or during the couple of years he worked for them.
Badthinker @ #801 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 4:53 pm
😆 😆 😆
Um, it was the L-NP that went down 2%. Looks to me like Dutton may have lost some socially conservative Muslim voters with his recent comments.
Not good people maybe forgetting about Fatima already.
Good news Muslim Vote party is coming big time for labors left and the Greensvoters.
Real difference on Palestine .
31% is diabolical for Labor, since the 32.5 @ the ’22 election doesn’t account for tactical voting.
And Labor did terrifically well on preferences.
That won’t be happening again, any time soon.
Comments from Kevin Bonham on twitter.
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1812739383709372516
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#Morgan ALP 31 L-NP 37.5 Green 12.5 ON 5 IND 9 others 5
Their 2PP by respondent prefs ALP trails 49.5-50.5 (ALP up 1.5)
By last-election prefs ALP leads 51.5-48.5 (+2, again I get effectively the same)
4:42 PM · Jul 15, 2024
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1812741651246522440
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
Because this Morgan replaces a strong one from 2 weeks ago my last-election prefs aggregate drops slightly to the value it has been glued to for months, 51.0. (This may exaggerate ALP’s position as preference flow could weaken.)
4:51 PM · Jul 15, 2024
The second tweet has a trend chart image in it.
The Roy Morgan post
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-election-is-too-close-to-call-with-major-parties-split-by-a-hairs-breadth-l-np-50-5-cf-alp-49-5
I tend to trust last election preferences more than respondent allocated prefs.
Badthinker @ #808 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 4:58 pm
Um, it was the L-NP that went backwards at the rate of knots at the last election. Doesn’t look like things are improving for them for the next one either. 😐
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 4:53 pm
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result favours the Albanese Government: ALP: 51.5% (up 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2% points from a week ago).
Will anyone be preferencing Labor next time, after the last 3 years of Infamy?
I’m thinking they’ll drop back to their natural level, say, 66 Seats.
=====================================================
I can’t see women coming back to the LNP. Who are further entrenching themselves as the party of misogyny. Though i note the problem appears to be more with the Dutton aligned faction. More moderate Liberal supporters don’t seem to have that problem. So a change of leadership back to the moderates might win back women voters?. Unfortunately there are very few moderates left to turn back to in the LNP.
I think it’s pointless trying to make any election outcome predictions from a Morgan poll. Just something new for folks to argue about.
CAT, whats your fucking problem with nadia.
Entropy @ #811 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 5:02 pm
Yes, Dutton may wish to dismiss what Malcolm Turnbull had to say about him but many Moderate Liberals would have listened and not dismissed it so lightly.
Which appears to have become a pattern of behaviour with Dutton. If he doesn’t like the sound of something, and/or it doesn’t accord with his policy, he just dismisses it with the wave of an imperious hand. He doesn’t even feel the need to give an explanation as to why it has been dismissed summarily. Just because he says so. People aren’t so stupid, well not as many as he would like, that they will just take the word of an opportunistic and self-interested politician at its face.
Premier asks Labor to suspend CFMEU from Victorian party amid allegations of criminal links
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has labelled alleged behaviour by the state’s construction union as “thuggish and appalling”.
Ms Allan said she had asked Labor’s national executive to immediately suspend the construction division of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU), following reports from Nine newspapers that alleged underworld figures and bikie gang members had infiltrated major construction projects.
She said she had referred allegations of serious misconduct to Victoria Police and the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-15/cfmeu-placed-into-administration-corruption-allegations/10409
davidwhsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 5:02 pm
I think it’s pointless trying to make any election outcome predictions from a Morgan poll. Just something new for folks to argue about.
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I think you are right and being a Morgan poll those argument want last very long either. It is probably petering out already. I suspect Nadia will probably try and prolong the discussion of it but most can’t be bothered.
If Reynolds is to get away with this Trumpian defence movement to free herself of her perceived injustices by suggesting a supposed conspiracy to defeat the Morrison LNP government at the last election, then Reynolds believes in fairies at end of the garden and it’s easy to win on the poker machines.
WA has limited water for gardens and no poker machines.
For an ex-minister and soon to be ex-senator to be completely lacking in self awareness is indicative of the lack of quality throughout the entire Morrison, now disgraced, government.(now mostly in exile)
The general public perception is that an Australian Senator and Minister did not take care to not allow 20 something year old staffers into her offices in the middle of the night to drink whisky where it would seem a rape occurred.
The minister response was interpreted as calling the rape victim “a lying cow”!
(for other reasons but not the rape)
Another minister advised the rape victim to get over it” as these things happen to women.
There’ll be some form of outcome from this unfortunate episode, but neither Reynolds nor the Liberals will be winners regardless of the outcome.
Some PB posters are clamming to scale a greasy pole to win a pig.
If by chance they achieve the task, they’ll find that “pigs will fly” and the reality will be a few splinters, a ref face and not enough “nouse” to “leave well alone”.
Who cares what Biden wears on his feet to a presser. It won’t make a jot of difference to locked in voters and the swing voters haven’t tuned to the coming election just yet. Seems there are people grabbing at any stereotype indicators of old age, feeble character. What next? Oh he has an old man’s haircut or he wears dentures.
Correct davidwh, but at least there is a poll, given the crickets from the other polling companies.
Yes – Yougov, Redbridge, Resolve – thinking of you lot. Where are you?
31% for Labor is terrible, though it’s better than 28.5%. Labor has to get their primary up because if the Muslim vote starts to slice in, i’m afraid the Labor primary may go even lower. Most of us are watching whether Sen.Payman will be the frontwoman for a new “Muslim voters” party, which would immediately elevate that group to an “above the line” box on the next senate ballot. This is, I’m sure, the goal.
Libs haven’t sunk since the last election. What I think has happenned is that the Libs have consolidated the conservative vote (ie: lapped up UAP).
You’ll note Pauline’s outfit has been trending up too going by bludgertrack. Libs pick up about 60% of the Pauline preferences.
KB doesn’t list primaries, but I believe he only includes a maximum of two polls from any outfit in his computer model. I’ll check KB’s site and have a look at his methodology.
The Libs really need to click over 40%, which they did on a Freshwater poll and came close with Newspoll 5 weeks ago, but they have dropped back a bit.
Anyway, at least we have a poll, and a decent sample too. Can’t believe it’s been 7 days since the last poll.
No major changes in the Morgan poll. Flat trend in 2024. Since the referendum even.
I’d be wary of pointing the bone of misogyny exclusively at the Libs- it happens in Labor and the Greens too. Just sayin.
Sandman @ #818 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 5:17 pm
Truth be told, I was hoping an ambitious photographer would have got a close-up of Trump’s shoes to see if they had lifts in them. 🙂
The opinion polling averages have been close to the 2022 federal election
im still predicting at the 2025 federal election
Federal Lib/nats get around 52 seats in total
QLD , 23+ seats where the federal Lib/nats will get majority of their seats out of 52
Labor and The Greens expect Women Of Colour to know their place.
Just ask Lydia Thorpe and Fatima Payman.
Amazon hits 100% renewables “moment” seven years ahead of schedule
https://reneweconomy.com.au/amazon-hits-100-renewables-moment-seven-years-ahead-of-schedule/
Scott,
I reckon that the Coalition has majority of its primary locked up in Qld, where basically it can’t gain any seats. It still polls poorly elsewhere around the country.
Not sure how they gain sufficient seats from the ALP to form government (even minority) and sure as hell aren’t getting the teal seats back.
C@tmomma @ #822 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 5:21 pm
Ask and you shall receive 🙂
https://twitter.com/peterbriggs/status/1812678846598021428
Keep it up Badthinker, you’ll get a bight eventually.
Sandmansays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 5:21 pm
I’d be wary of pointing the bone of misogyny exclusively at the Libs- it happens in Labor and the Greens too. Just sayin.
==============================================
The worst examples on here seem to come from people whose support is aligned with the far right of the LNP. While this correlation might not be due to an alignment of values on this specific issue? It is sometimes hard not to think there could be a correlation with it.
Badthinker @ #825 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 5:27 pm
You do remember that Peter Dutton ran the ‘No’ campaign against the Indigenous Voice and refused to be in the chamber when Kevin Rudd said ‘Sorry’? Also, you appear to be overlooking the fact that Fatima Payman is a Muslim and Peter Dutton had some choice words to say about Muslims just the other week. Oh, and Anne Aly is a Woman of Colour and her place is currently as the Minister for Early Childhood Education and Minister for Youth in the Albanese ministry. 🙂
Kirky says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 5:28 pm
Scott,
I reckon that the Coalition has majority of its primary locked up in Qld, where basically it can’t gain any seats. It still polls poorly elsewhere around the country.
Not sure how they gain seats from the ALP and sure as hell aren’t getting the teal seats back.
——————————————
Yes thats the way its looking , federal lib/nats having less seats than 58 seats they got at the 2022 federal election
Confessions @ #828 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 5:30 pm
OMG! 😆
Sad to say when I jump on my phone for PB that I’m noticing more and more Badthinker seems to have lost their steam, just going through the motions, no longer engaged in the war, calling it in, seems just plain bored these days. RUOK?
C@tmomma @ #831 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 5:33 pm
As I predicted, the Liberals and Nationals used Jacinta whatshername to be the face of the No vote, but after she’d done her thing, would be pushed back into obscurity again.
Seen her since the referendum? Neither have I.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 5:37 pm
So now you believe because it is on twitter. Does this make me a less reliable source than twitter?
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Entropysays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 3:33 pm
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 3:30 pm
Boerwar @ #325 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 3:20 pm
confessions
Were his shoes really off?
Who knows? But it’s odd that he’s demanding to be allowed to put his shoes back on before being dragged to the car.
When he was dragged standing his hair was seriously askance. Perhaps ‘shoes’ is code for wig.
===============================================
Probably just his vanity. His shoes are elevated to make him look taller. Probably didn’t want to risk getting photographed showing his actual height.
Speaking of polls, I just got phone polled here in Sturt by TKW research. I was asked a bunch of Sturt specific questions on issues in addition to voting intention, which party best handled different issues, 2PP and how I voted at the last Federal election (hint: James Stevens should not rely on my support).
Interestingly I was asked would I consider voting for Teal candidate if there was one? Here’s hoping.
C@t:
Yep! And I got my answer to the question of why Trump wasn’t wearing shoes when he was shot. He actually was wearing shoes, but the lifts are so high his feet slipped out of them as he ducked for cover.
I loved Bill Maher’s comment about Gavin Newsom. At 6ft 3in and 215 pounds, he’s actually the height and weight Trump claims to be.
Entropy:
Good call in the end!
Interestingly I was asked would I consider voting for Teal candidate if there was one? Here’s hoping.
_______
Socrates
Here’s your chance to join the tactical voting club.
Agree Nadia we need to see 40% minimum primary for the LNP before we can say they have a chance. In reality we haven’t seen any material change in 2024.
Morgan bungee jumping again….
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament and ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition on 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition dropped 2% to 37.5% this week while the ALP increased 2.5% to 31%. Support for the Greens was down 1% to 12.5%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Yep! And I got my answer to the question of why Trump wasn’t wearing shoes when he was shot. He actually was wearing shoes, but the lifts are so high his feet slipped out of them as he ducked for cover.
___________
Confessions
You mean like Sir Les Patterson’s?
Much more tactical voting, there’ll be nothing left of the Party.
I mean, seriously, voting in a few conservative Teals gives the game away, to anyone paying attention, doesn’t it?
All aboard the Teal train, it seems.
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 5:53 pm
Much more tactical voting, there’ll be nothing left of the Party.
I mean, seriously, voting in a few conservative Teals gives the game away, to anyone paying attention, doesn’t it?
=============================================
Yes, it pretty much highlights that the treatment of women and climate change. Are both areas the LNP are failing in.
Conservative voters should all be switching to the Teal.
It’s the natural fit.
BK
If tactically voting for a Teal means an end to the 50 year LNP sinecure in Sturt I will do it cheerfully.
How does Biden turn this around? And never mind claiming underdog status, he just flat out is the underdog right now. And so that theory goes out the window. What people have seen over the course of the last 24 hours is a Theodore Roosevelt like performance from Trump after an assassination attempt.
Lordy, lordy. And this is scariest of all:
Moderates!! WTF?
So how do you ID a Teal candidate?
Logically I should vote Labor as I’m a little right on economic issues and a little left on social issues. My family was/are mostly Labor voters. I just have this mind block over Labor.
AHOY there! Resolve at 28% Woo Hoo!!
NSW Labor primary at 27%
QLD Labor primary at 23%
Bring on Newspoll!!!
54% of respondents rate Albo’s performance as poor or very poor.