Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:
• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.
• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.
• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.
• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.
If tactically voting for a Teal means an end to the 50 year LNP sinecure in Sturt I will do it cheerfully.
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Socrates
Exactly. Effectively, you now have a voice.
BK:
Sir Les had the confidence to wear his heel lifts out and proud! 😆
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 6:02 pm
AHOY there! Resolve at 28% Woo Hoo!!
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Which would be the same as the previous Resolve poll.
A Butler resident on Ch9 news giving an eyewitness account of the shooting was there selling Trump themed honey.
*blinks*
Fess, ill say it before and ill say it again; US “centrists” or moderates etc consistently prefer strong, authorianish, centralised governments.
Trump lost the moderates (in so far as he lost some) last time because of all the chaos.
Now Trump vs Biden picture wise Bidens the one with the criminal son in the whitehouse and is sunsetting… doesnt help with that block
Sir Les had the confidence to wear his heel lifts out and proud!
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Yes Fess, like Trump, a class act.
A Butler resident on Ch9 news giving an eyewitness account of the shooting was there selling Trump themed honey.
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With an authenticated hint of a grabbed pussy.
With 27% primary in NSW Albo is a chance of equaling Kristina Keneally’s record low of 24%.
When will the ALP caucus man and woman up and put an end to this farce?
hazzasays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 12:44 pm
[Anyone remember that announcement by Dutton? Something about nuclear energy]
Yes Hazza,the post of the day/week/month
That is a shocker resolve poll for labor.
Dutton the terrible is actually preferred PM!!
Interest rate rise real chance as well.
Any guess at 2pp ?
NSW not great for some reason for labor.Actually lots of reasons.
Ok I will bite what on earth is a grabbed pussy?
June Quarter CPI is on last day of July.
CPI and the next RBA board meeting could be the hammer blow for Albo’s reign of error.
Anyone remember that announcement by Dutton? Something about nuclear energy.
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Tritium Ted’s been asked to check his numbers and said he’d be ready with them in 2030.
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 6:02 pm
AHOY there! Resolve at 28% Woo Hoo!!
NSW Labor primary at 27%
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Wow.
I have always thought the sub 30 Newspoll is the thing that will finish off Albo. I feel it’s just around the corner.
Lars has the pom poms out. Careful on those joints!
For me, the trend is flatlining. But I guess there is no fun in that.
So much for the tax cuts.
Start the countdown , for when Albo says:
“Polls come and go, the only poll I am interested in is the election”
Quick, nadia come back!
Main change from Resolve is Coalition up to 38%. Labor unchanged.
Looks like voters are awake to Labor’s double-speak.
Griff joins the Scott, inevitable victory of socialism under Albo faction…..
Not enough to arrest the decline elsewhere.
Resolve asks the key question.
Is listening and focused on the right issues.
Libs 30%
Labor 22%
Someone else 19%
Take a look at the little graph on the page at the end of labors vote on this question.
It has sunk.Was on 44 % in Dec 2022.
54 percent in another poll recently said Aust was going in the wrong direction.
Told you Lars, gotta trust your old Nadia 88, even if you’re the only one.
Lordbain – thanks for your earlier post. Don’t know the reason why. I try to ignore it.
Gosh, two polls in the space of an hour. Can smell a new thread coming on.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 6:16 pm
Griff joins the Scott, inevitable victory of socialism under Albo faction…..
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Oh no! I have been pigeonholed. Was it the Cuba article last night? 🙂
In nadia88 we trust.
Antici – pation for a refreshing new start sub 30 Newspoll building.
I thought it was the critical thought and analysis by Scott that sold you griff. Maybe not.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 6:15 pm
Quick, nadia come back!
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Sorry Lordbain, got caught up in the evening cooking. I thought Resolve would drop last night, but I see Lars is all over it.
Thanks too.
What strange bedfellows. Lordbain, Lars Von Trier and nadia88.
Not really.
To make it formal.
* ALP 28% (no change)
* LNP 38% (up 2)
* GRN 13% (down 1)
* Pauline 6% (down 1)
* Others/Indies 15% (no change)
Resolve doesn’t do a 2PP, so I’ll leave it to Steve or WB to calculate it.
Imagine talking about polling… in a polling forum?
Shock, horror etc.
Also im not exactly thrilled with the polls given the Greens are down 1, but I also know certain people really enjoy talking about them.
Again, because this is a polling forum…
c@t – I’m getting a bit tired of your ascerbic comments. Can you give it a break pls. I don’t snark at you, or other posters for that matter, and would prefer you don’t do likewise to me.
The cynicism of giving back a quarter of bracket creep and 5000 new homes to deal with cost of living and housing has bit the ALP on the bottom – but really underneath it all this a rejection of Albo’s cautious incrementalism.
When Australians wanted large Albo went small.
Have the Teals told the Labor headkickers
“Hands off Albo”?
Fine, nadia88.
It’s all in the messaging, because I can’t remember one policy that will actually work:
“There are people who don’t agree with the Coalition’s stance on many things, including nuclear power, the break-up of supermarkets and fuel efficiency standards, but they are all about fighting for lower costs for consumers,” Reed said.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-swing-to-dutton-in-new-sign-of-angst-over-economy-20240715-p5jto8.html
as expected QLD boosting only ,
not good for the federal lib/nats – national wide
36% average
Seems be a reverse of the Victorian Election , Where Labor primary vote was losing ground in safe labor seats which were not going to lose
Federally in QLD the federal LNP primary vote is increasing not going to make difference to the overall result ,
Badthinker says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 6:38 pm
Have the Teals told the Labor headkickers
“Hands off Albo”?
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The teals will be taking seats from the federal lib/nats
nadia88 says:
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 6:32 pm
To make it formal.
* ALP 28% (no change)
* LNP 38% (up 2)
* GRN 13% (down 1)
* Pauline 6% (down 1)
* Others/Indies 15% (no change)
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Federal lib/nats Getting mainly the federal lib/nats leaning voters , which is not what kind of voters the federal lib/nats want to take seats off labor
The 2PP on those Resolve primaries would be around 49/51
And there you have it, the Queensland effect:
L-Np 44%
ALP 23%
I think I’ll wait until the Queensland state election washes through the system. Also, I would love someone with statistical analysis ability to calculate how much that figure is affecting the national figures?
Scott at 6.47pm, you are right, Climate 200 is funding Teals in Liberal seats of Moore and Forest in WA.
C@tmomma at 6.56pm
And there you have it, the Queensland effect:
L-Np 44%
ALP 23%
I think I’ll wait until the Queensland state election washes through the system. Also, I would love someone with statistical analysis ability to calculate how much that figure is affecting the national figures?
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I would have figured the national numbers are weighted by state commensurately with the size of the state’s voting contingent such that it impacts the national vote at the appropriate level. Probably unsurprising for a national 38-28 split where the biggest states are 39-27 (NSW), 36-30 (Vic) and 44-23 (Qld).
Their ABC, you know that bastion of leftist propaganda putting the boot into Victorian Labor. That private school brat cannot help himself in terms of anti Labor hyperbole. What’s his name Mellingham or something? I think his handle on here is Badthinker.
I think it’s time to play what’s in the box. Trump has said he has re-written his speech for the RNC Convention this week. My money is on finding god (it makes good marketing sense), and declaring a holy war (probably on immigrants but whatever).
As per ABC news, Shooter Mathew Crooks registered himself as Republican voter and wore a Pro-gun organisation logo T-shirt.
God saved Trump. Long live Trump.
Why would be people be surprised by this Resolve Poll? Labor are aping the Tories with their neo liberal tax cuts. There is almost zero differential on the part of federal Labor. What do they stand for? How are they different from the Tories?
Stinker
i doubt Federal Lib/nats are leading Labor in Victoria
atlee
27% increase in wages for the workers in Aged Care.