Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

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  1. C@t:

    Others have noted the on the nose Qld state government is distorting the federal voting intention.

    We shall see.

  2. Mostly Interested @ #895 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:09 pm

    I think it’s time to play what’s in the box. Trump has said he has re-written his speech for the RNC Convention this week. My money is on finding god (it makes good marketing sense), and declaring a holy war (probably on immigrants but whatever).

    My money is on hyper vengeance.

    First they tried to impeach me.
    Then they tried to convict me.
    Now they’ve tried to kill me.

    But I was put here to fight for you. I stand here so they can’t do this to you.
    Etc etc etc.

  3. “My money is on hyper vengeance. ”

    Yup. There will be vast amounts of projection involved i think. Trump convinced people are out to get him because that’s what he would be doing.

    Unless Biden stands down, US voters will be faced with a choice between someone viciously deranged, and someone old. I’d pick the old guy.

    oh, and i think davidwh’s slogan from a couple of posts back is highly likely. Technically, and sadly ……. good slogan .

  4. Alan Kohler had a graph up tonight in his finance report.

    Trump 67%

    Said dems stuffed does not matter if it’s Biden/Harris that run against him same percentage almost.

  5. Confessions at 7.25pm

    I’m sure Trump won’t be able to resist that exact approach. But if he could find it in himself to take a conciliatory tone, say this is a time to lower the temperature and unite as a country behind him, it could be a masterstroke. I can’t see it happening, of course, but he really has an opportunity to try to strike a more statesman-like pose, which could be the final nail for Biden.

  6. “but he really has an opportunity to try to strike a more statesman-like pose, which could be the final nail for Biden.”

    Could be, but how long will Trump be able to maintain that persona ?? Election is still months away.

  7. imacca:

    There is a 3rd option being that Biden is replaced. I know it’s unlikely after the assassination attempt, but a new Dem candidate could reset things.

    Those numbers I posted earlier are just screaming new energetic Democrat nominee.

  8. Trump is a malignant narcissist. The nanosecond he is off the teleprompter it will be sadistic, brutal and self-hagiography. The only relief will occur when he enters one of his ever more-frequent delusional states.

  9. ‘davidwh says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:39 pm

    I’m going to load up the van and hide in the outback for 4 years.’
    ——————-
    I’d suggest bypassing Snowtown to get there.

  10. Lordbain at 7.34pm

    Hahaha, yes fair point. As I say, I can’t imagine him using the situation for anything other than further self-aggrandising, but if he could just pull his head in and be the slightest bit magnanimous, he could pretty much wrap up the election right now, I think.

  11. Confessions @ #904 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:25 pm

    Mostly Interested @ #895 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:09 pm

    I think it’s time to play what’s in the box. Trump has said he has re-written his speech for the RNC Convention this week. My money is on finding god (it makes good marketing sense), and declaring a holy war (probably on immigrants but whatever).

    My money is on hyper vengeance.

    First they tried to impeach me.
    Then they tried to convict me.
    Now they’ve tried to kill me.

    But I was put here to fight for you. I stand here so they can’t do this to you.
    Etc etc etc.

    yeah thats a good bet too.

  12. Pied pipersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:30 pm
    Alan Kohler had a graph up tonight in his finance report.

    Trump 67%

    Said dems stuffed does not matter if it’s Biden/Harris that run against him same percentage almost.
    ===============================================

    That rules you out being in SA or WA then.

  13. The Rusties wanted Albo back in 2013, even though he’d been a passenger in the Rudd/Gillard Governments.
    So, yeah, if they want Minority Government in a couple of months, they’re stuck him him.

  14. If Trump is smart, his acceptance speech would be a defiant “They tried to stop me with violence but failed. I bravely stand stronger and ready to rescue this country from the violence and division etc.” speech. As gaslighting as it may be, him delivering that speech (perhaps with some visible bandaging on the side of his face) could be a very good optical moment for him, especially preceded by several days of Republican speakers complaining about how “Joe’s America” is “suffering and divided” and that their opponents are violent thugs (doesn’t matter how hypocritical or untrue it is.) It would be a good chance for the running mate to also make the case that they’re a safe backup who will “continue the mission” lest Trump die. We might sneer at it but the swing voter, seeing it the filter of an optics-driven media, could eat that shit right up.

    Of course, that’s resting on an ‘if’ and I could also see Trump and the Republicans whiffing it and the convention just being an incoherent airing of identarian grievances. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for them to be handed a free win, or at least something that gives them an advantage and still blow it.

  15. The time for magnanimity was when Trump left the White House in 2021.
    Instead, there’s been 4 years of unrelenting Lawfare against him ever since.
    So, no, he shouldn’t turn the other cheek.
    He should prosecute Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, Harris, Newsom & the Obamas the same way.

  16. Trump is going to give a Unite America speech. Softer than he had planned.

    It won’t last but at least it’s a small mercy.

    Just imagine if he hadn’t turned his head and died in front of everyone. The world would be in crisis. He wasn’t the only one who missed a bullet.

  17. The QLD figures are interesting, but won’t really count when it comes to a Fed Election.
    All this will serve to do is increase the margins of the current LNP members. LNP may pick up a seat, but remember in QLD, the LNP is at the high tide mark. I still think W.A. and the western suburbs of Sydney (west of the M7), will determine the next election.

    However, of interest, down to Victoria…

    The Victorian primary jump for the LNP is notable. Up 4% on Resolve, which is their highest poll primary this Parliamentary cycle. The Greens are also polling at or above 15% in Vic (they actually pulled 19% in Vic on a Yougov in early June, which was silent on this site). Given the Green vote is concentrated in areas immediately north and south east of the Melb.CBD, I am fairly confident this should result in the Greens picking up Wills, Batman and maybe even Macnamara. Greens topped the Primaries in 2016 in Batman (now Cooper) – they have to be in with a red hot go given the current ALP member – Ged Kearney – has had not much impact. The bludgertrack poll data tab has the Libs ahead of Labor in all primary polls since May 19, 2024, including that staggering 19% primary for the Greens on June-4.

  18. Resolve is the Rasmussen of Australia

    And they have started doing 2PP since the last poll

    The primary vote results mean Labor and the Coalition are now tied at 50:50 in two-party terms for the first time in the Resolve Political Monitor since the last election, ending Labor’s long lead on this measure. The two-party calculation assumes the same preference flows as in 2022.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-swing-to-dutton-in-new-sign-of-angst-over-economy-20240715-p5jto8.html

  19. Diogenes @ #928 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:18 pm

    Just imagine if he hadn’t turned his head and died in front of everyone. The world would be in crisis. He wasn’t the only one who missed a bullet.

    I wonder what the commentary would be like if that did happen. I mean after the dust settles. Obviously those who have an interest in US politics would still be interested in the race but if, say, that scenario happened and someone a little less, shall we say, “Trump-like” were to be the replacement nominee, would the interest on here drop, now that a notable villain for many is gone. Or will the interest still be strong out of fears that the new nominee, regardless of who it is, is just Trump 2.0 (regardless of how pleasant their demeanour is?)

    I guess, like with all counterfactuals, there’s no way of truly knowing.

  20. davidwh says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:47 pm

    BW may just head to Betoota and camp up there.
    …’
    ——————–
    LOL

  21. ‘Diogenes says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:48 pm

    …He wasn’t the only one who missed a bullet.’

    Exactemundo.

  22. Meanwhile Labor is toast in Australia. 28% primary, a primary deficit of 10% compared to the Coalition and combined Labor/Greens lower than Coalition/One Nation.

    Littlefinger sharpens the knife……

    We should be anticipating, in a few years, far right regimes in charge around the Western World.
    Back to a world of patriarchy, nativism, Judeo-Christian values and one devoid of wokism.

  23. “I know it’s unlikely after the assassination attempt, but a new Dem candidate could reset things. ”

    Yup, it easily could. The Dems have options here for candidates and campaign that could sink Trump, if they take them up. Race is not over.

  24. I don’t think any US polling is useful right now. Current polling probably hasn’t captured the post-shooting mood yet and, even if it has, we have the issue of whether or not there’s a sympathy bump (and how temporary that will be), not to mention the convention this week could well give a temporary bump as well (as conventions often do.)

    I know statements like this sound like copium or what have you but we’re probably going to have to wait for the dust to settle from the shooting and upcoming conventions before we can get a more accurate picture of things.

    And that’s not even factoring in the Biden issues that were at play and dominated the news before the shooting, and whether or not that’s going to linger or be memory-holed.

    I miss when an election was two boring arseholes bickering about leadership and policy, and who looks best in a cowboy hat for six months and I didn’t have to factor in attempted assassinations or fears of authoritarianism…

  25. Stinkersays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:49 pm
    You’re a real odd duck, Badthinker.
    =================================================

    I would go with bleach drinking crazy.

  26. “I miss when an election was two boring arseholes bickering about leadership and policy, and who looks best in a cowboy hat for six months and I didn’t have to factor in attempted assassinations or fears of authoritarianism… ”

    When it was at least mainly about policy and governance?? I think the infection of democracies by absolutely self interested and amoral RWNJobbies put paid to that. 🙁

  27. MelbourneMammothsays:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:03 pm
    Meanwhile Labor is toast in Australia. 28% primary, a primary deficit of 10% compared to the Coalition and combined Labor/Greens lower than Coalition/One Nation.

    Littlefinger sharpens the knife……

    We should be anticipating, in a few years, far right regimes in charge around the Western World.
    Back to a world of patriarchy, nativism, Judeo-Christian values and one devoid of wokism.
    =======================================================

    Lets call it what it really will be then, fascism.

  28. I guess, like with all counterfactuals, there’s no way of truly knowing.

    At the end of the day you can only deal with the information that’s right in front of you.

    And right now Biden’s numbers are tanking with key demographics and have been for some time.

    Will the post Trump assassination attempt polling show something different? Maybe. But the moment for Democrats to change is now, and they can’t really wait for another couple weeks and allow this bloodletting to continue playing out.

  29. at Tyler says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 7:58 pm

    Diogenes @ #928 Monday, July 15th, 2024 – 7:18 pm

    Just imagine if he hadn’t turned his head and died in front of everyone. The world would be in crisis. He wasn’t the only one who missed a bullet.

    I wonder what the commentary would be like if that did happen. I mean after the dust settles…’
    ———————-
    What makes you think the dust would settle?

  30. I know statements like this sound like copium or what have you but we’re probably going to have to wait for the dust to settle from the shooting and upcoming conventions before we can get a more accurate picture of things.

    Unfortunately for Democrats I think that is too late.

  31. Nothing is as ever as it seems, Stinker.
    Who would’ve been game to predict in 2020 that the reformist Morrison Government could be defeated by a constipated Tory like Albo, leading a gang of retreads from the Rudd era?
    Yet, it happened.

  32. Boerwar wrote,

    “atlee

    27% increase in wages for the workers in Aged Care.”

    Wow where do I sign up? The first election I was qualified to vote in was the 1980 federal one and I have voted Labor in every single one since then. Right now, as things stand, federal Labor will NOT get my vote next time. I will continue to vote for Victorian Labor however, as they are a real left wing option.

  33. Entropy says:
    Monday, July 15, 2024 at 8:08 pm

    Lets call it what it really will be then, fascism.

    Is not this type of irresponsible and highly inaccurate but inflammatory language that leads to assassination attempts against democratic leaders.

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