Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 21
1 2 3 21
  1. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 8:30 am
    I am sure there are people in the alp watching the Biden situation unfold and calculating will Albo go quietly when they tap him on the shoulder ?

    _________

    You have more confidence than I do that Albanese will be governing for 20 more years. Would easily overtake Menzies 🙂

  2. You’re an absolute moron borewore

    Wanting the government to find it’s spine and take a stance against Israeli war crimes and attacks on civilians is NOT the same as supporting Dutton

    I think BW must own shares in wet lettuce Inc, this government is certainly good for business!

  3. ‘Player One says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:02 am

    Confessions @ #37 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 8:56 am

    President Biden when asked about the incident: “My thoughts are with Kamala Harris and her family.”


    ——————
    What a card you are, P1.
    When asked about the incident Trump said, ‘This is what happens when Nicki Haley is in charge of security and because President Obama ordered the hit job. Hannibal Lecter, a wonderful person, did it.’

  4. Per the Butler Police Department the Trump shooter has been arrested at the scene and has been identified as Mark Violets, an Antifa member.
    Prior to the sh00ting Mark Violets uploaded a video on YouTube claiming “justice is coming”.

  5. “Shoot straight ya Bastards”.

    Oh Dear.

    Next election debate will now have two candidates having trouble hearing each other.

    Bonus points to the lady in the background whilst shots fired holding up her camera phone footage will be worth a fortune.

  6. Yes American gun rules are nuts and this incident will probably boost Trump’s popularity.

    Yet after seeing the video I find this incident odd. This was no trained assassin – lots of shots at a big stationary target and one grazed his ear?

    I agree the sound was soft and suggested only a BB gun was used. I.e. a pistol version of an air rifle.

  7. Just puttin’ it out there, Sprocket_.
    You can’t argue with history.
    Otoh, Republican/Centrist Presidents
    Lincoln, assassinated, Garfield, assassinated; McKinley, assassinated; Harding, died in mysterious circumstances that have never been fully explained; Truman, unsuccessful attempt; JFK, assassinated; Ford, 2 attempts; GHW Bush, likely attempt during State Dinner in Tokyo, Trump, shot at today.
    The weight of history points in a certain direction.

  8. Page Boi,
    Maybe Hamas should stop hiding the leader of the October 7 attack on Israel in a designated ‘safe space’ for civilians?

  9. Shoutout to the photographer, what a shot.

    Also I note that the usual suspects think israel has a clean pass to do what ever they want… urgh

  10. The preponderance of loud vocal nutters can only be addressed by an election.

    Depending on the outcome of an election, the nutters are capable of more, as Trump demonstrated after the last election in the USA

    A now disgraced Australian radio shockjock was capable of initiating and promoting nutters in Australia. And did so.

    PB seems to have attracted plenty of nutters recently and they don’t engage in rational discussion nor are adverse to making stuff up.

    Much of the media generate revenue by catering to the nutters.

    The current alternative PM has allowed himself to go feral with the nuclear alternative.

    Pink bats was just
    feral bullshit.
    What happens when the lights go out is feral bullshit.
    If you don’t know vote know no is feral bullshit.
    You’ll destroy our livelihood is another.

    Work choices was nutter bullshit, knighting Prince Phillip was nutters bullshit, opposing daylight saving, maintaining racism, locking people up on islands, opposing renewables and making curries are all in the same category.

    The USA is seemingly at the cusp of a great test of its political strength at its next election.

    If a voter works for a living, is black or even coloured, indigenous, a women, cares about the environment, a Muslim and is not a nutter, than you’d think, the “greatest nation on Earth” would be safe from the nutters “grabbing the reins”.

    After Trump’s last effort you’d think it a no contest.
    After Morrison’s last effort you’d think it a no contest.

    Opposing Trump in the USA and opposing Australia s version, Dutton seems reasonable!

    Only if you assume that the production line of nutters is limited.
    And it isn’t!

    So the voters are in command of their own fate and that is showing signs of being a “bigly” worry.

    I’m “gambling” that the nutters don’t have the numbers in each of two “slightly democratic, slightly sensible and definitely “well off” nations.

    Great Britain had an Empire, the Chinese many Empires and Trump wishes for one.
    Mr Dutton just wants to be significant in the “eyes of the nutters”.

    Let’s keep the “show on the road” and deal with the election outcome at the appropriate time.
    The nutters on PB can continue to provide their “weirdo” humour if it keeps you “off the streets”.

    (And now this scripted bullshit from the good old USA)
    (The nutters picnic has started)

  11. ‘PageBoi says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:12 am

    You’re an absolute moron borewore

    Wanting the government to find it’s spine and take a stance against Israeli war crimes and attacks on civilians is NOT the same as supporting Dutton

    I think BW must own shares in wet lettuce Inc, this government is certainly good for business!’
    ————————–
    1. First thing the Greens do when under pressure is resort to personal abuse.

    2. Hamas, Heshbollah, the Houthies and their paymaster, trainer and weapons supplier have ALL repeatedly expressed a vision of genocide. You are totally silent on this. Hamas senior officials have stated that they will repeat October 7. You are totally silent on this. You are totally silent on the 100,000 Israelis who have been forced out of their homes in northern israel. You are totally silent on the hostages. You are totally silent on the use by Hamas of all elements of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and mosques, as fighting redoubts. You are totally silent on the way in which Hamas fights from within groups of civilians.

    3. The Israeli Government has expressed genocidal vision statement. It is giving at least partial effect to implementing this statement. This involves, IMO, the war crime of disproportionate civilian casualties. It also involves the choking of civilian aid required to feed, water, shelter and provide medical care to innocent civilians.

    4. The Greens, including yourself, repeatedly stoke communalist tensions with your complete lack of a comprehensive assessment of the situation in the Middle East. This is done by way of repeated cheap shots such as those you indulge in. Inter alia, this has resulted in the physical harrassment and intimidation of Labor electorate officers. It has also directly related in huge increase in anti-semitic and Islamaphobia feelings and incidents in Australia.

    5. You are not a moron. You do evidence a lack of any sense of balance or of a comprehensive understanding of what is happening in the Middle East. You may think you are being useful and constructive. You are not. You are stoking the problem. You are destructive.

    5.

  12. Badthinker says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:17 am
    Just puttin’ it out there, Sprocket_.
    You can’t argue with history.
    Otoh, Republican/Centrist Presidents
    Lincoln, assassinated, Garfield, assassinated; McKinley, assassinated; Harding, died in mysterious circumstances that have never been fully explained; Truman, unsuccessful attempt; JFK, assassinated; Ford, 2 attempts; GHW Bush, likely attempt during State Dinner in Tokyo, Trump, shot at today.
    The weight of history points in a certain direction.

    ______

    JFK? Oh dear.

  13. O.C.
    There’s no “progressive side”.
    Progressivism as ideology is indistinguishable from Bolshevism
    =========================================
    Griff:
    JFK? Oh dear.
    JFK was a centrist President, during a brief period when the Democratic Party represented the Working Class.

  14. As the shots are fired, the MAGA idiots behind him are holding up signs ‘You’re Fired’

    For someone who has patented violent rhetoric, one can speculate the effect on the US polity.

  15. OC: I’m not sure that the assassination attempt will swing too many votes, regardless of who is responsible.

    However, it increases the urgency of the need to move Biden on. The sense that the US is in crisis will make voters even less enthusiastic about voting for someone who is senile.

  16. OC

    “ If it is an Antifa, I think you can pack up the election now”

    I agree. The shooter has just ensured Trump’s base will turn out to vote for him. Crazy.

  17. Indeed, I am dreading the reporting on the shooter, because regardless of who they were everyone and their dog is going to spin this. BLUEMAGA is already in full force calling this a false flag operation, as if amongst the many absurdities of such a statement the idea that trump would be brave enough to have someone shoot him that closely isn’t pure madness…

    I honestly think the government should revise travel warnings for the states…

  18. Surprise surprise it was when Trump was talking about illegal immigration that the shots ran out.

    The sickness of the global left.

  19. Trump receiving a minor injury in a failed assassination has got to be the worst possible outcome for the Left. In fact, if I were his campaign manager, I’d be cackling with glee.

  20. Progressivism is indistinct from Bolshevism
    Wow
    A good and elementary book on fin de siècle Australian progressivism for someone with NFI is “Nine Australian Progressives: Vitalism in Bourgeois Social Thought 1890 -1960” Michael Roe.
    Elements of what were then thought of as progressive are now quite shocking to 21st century society.
    BTW Teddy Roosevelt’s party during the 1912 election was Progressive.

  21. Just in case there is any doubt regarding Elon Musk and his views:

    “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery”

  22. 17 minutes ago
    17 minutes ago
    Neil Vigdor

    Some people who were in the crowd described the evacuation of the rally as a logistical nightmare. “Right now, they’re trying to evacuate 50,000 people on one country road,” James E. Hulings, the Butler County Republican Committee chairman, told me by phone from his car. He said he was still stuck in a parking area around 7 p.m. Eastern time. “It’s such a tragedy. So many people were crying. We waited here since 10:30 this morning.”

    NYTimes

  23. The election posters will feature Donald, blood on face, holding his fist up in the air as he’s bundled away by the Secret Service.

  24. Trump was already assured of winning, now we’re talking landslide. Trump is a fascist. He now has his miracle. We are fucked.

    This was the arch duke Ferdinand moment of the 21st century.

  25. BK I’ve been to the states a few times too.
    I got to Yosemite which is beautiful. I unfortunately haven’t gotten to Yellowstone or the Grand Canyon.
    Doubt I’ll ever get to them unless there’s a significant change in the attitude to violence and guns.
    Hawaii is probably ok for now but who knows what the future holds.

  26. Australia has it’s fair share of Left Wing nutjobs too.
    Gun laws have nothing to do with it.
    Almost guaranteed the assassin wasn’t a legal gun owner.

  27. This crap shit nonsense that security detail pushed Trump down is just that. As soon as the bullet razed past Trump right ear hee himself ducked behind the lecturn.

    According local DA, the suspect shooter is dead along with rally attendee.

  28. Shout out to the usual suspects who think that it’s okay for Hamas to hide the leaders and perpetrators of the October 7 massacre among innocent Palestinian civilians.

  29. I agree Sprocket.
    I’m monitoring Associated Press, per the link posted above.
    They generally feed out reports to the TV media who then put it to air, bypassing social media.
    I haven’t heard anything about antifa at this stage.

  30. A Left Wing nut shot Arthur Calwell during the 1966 campaign, Calwell still lost in a landsllide.
    it’s the candidate that matters, like Harold Holt, Trump is a far superior candidate.

  31. It’s a wake up call at just how broken the US is.

    Not going to matter much who wins the US elections now. Chaos either way.

    Surely now Australia needs to take a breath and reassess the relationship.

Comments Page 2 of 21
1 2 3 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *