Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 3 of 21
1 2 3 4 21
  1. Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) claimed that Biden ordered Trump assassinated, and demanded that the Butler County, PA DA criminally charge Joe Biden for trying to assassinate Trump.

  2. I don’t know that this helps Trump.

    It will swoon the cult – no doubt. But they were drunk on whatever this is already.

    It depends on how he reacts. If he amps up the rhetoric and mixes in revenge – he look even more unpleasant and dangerously unstable to many independents and old school republicans. And help the Dems turnout as much as it will his MAGA. His immediate reaction of a clenched fist instead of a wave says a lot. He’s gonna be pissed. Call for calm? Nah. He will start pointing fingers like it’s a scatter gun.

    It will also depend on how the various trump supporting paramilitary militia gangs react.

    On its own, a reminder of the cray cray that comes with Trump – something people were sick of in 2020.


  3. nadia88says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:45 am
    I agree Sprocket.
    I’m monitoring Associated Press, per the link posted above.
    They generally feed out reports to the TV media who then put it to air, bypassing social media.
    I haven’t heard anything about antifa at this stage.

    nadia
    I am watching the incident on CNN on loop and Trump ducks after the bullet grazes past his right ear

    Trump after getting up from floor raiswd his fist and said “fight, fight, fight”

  4. How appropriate that Trump has ended up on the receiving end of the violence he and his goons have been promulgating. Just a pity that it didn’t take him out.

  5. Ahhh I see the usual “I have you blocked but somehow alllways know when someone’s talking about me” phenomena is in play. And apparently thinking the Israelis have gone way to far and that this conflict has roots way before last year means I am pro hamas and civilian deaths… good job CAT

  6. Ahhh I see the usual “I have you blocked but somehow alllways know when someone’s talking about me” phenomena is in play. And apparently thinking the Israelis have gone way to far and that this conflict has roots way before last year means I am pro hamas and civilian deaths… good job CAT

  7. Badthinker: Peter Kocan, who attempted to kill Calwell around the corner from my family home in 1966, was said to have had some engagement with the local Nazi Party.

    But, according to those who treated him at the time and subsequently, his main problem was that he was suffering from mental illness and was feeling suicidal.. He subsequently became quite an accomplished poet and also wrote about his own life and medical treatment.
    He was extensively published in Quadrant, thereby providing grist to the mill for some Labor conspiracy theorists.

  8. TK

    My thinking as well.

    Does the majority of US people want the violent anarchy which has been fomented by Trump?

    Though there is the P.T.Barnum quotes… Trump modelling himself on the carnival barker

    “I don’t care what the newspapers say about me as long as they spell my name right.”
    “There’s a sucker born every minute”
    “There’s no such thing as bad publicity”

    ― P. T. Barnum

  9. Here here Scott 1, and thanks Ven

    it would appear that the shooter was engaged by tactical police and shot by them.
    We should have a name soon, and then the motive.

  10. It has never been more true to believe the incompetence theory before the conspiracy theory.

    This looks like the intersection of an incompetent assassin with incompetent security screening. There are now reports bystanders saw the assassin crawling across the roof of a neighbouring building, tried to warn police, but nothing was done before shooting started. USA is a violent, insecure place.

    I take TK’s point that this incident does not guarantee either side victory. It depends how people respond to it. But worst case I think it will do no harm to Trump’s chances and could help them.

  11. Bystander says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:50 am
    How appropriate that Trump has ended up on the receiving end of the violence he and his goons have been promulgating. Just a pity that it didn’t take him out.

    Classy. Change the name from Trump to Biden, Clinton or Obama and the response to you would be off the scale.

    The conspiracy theories on this thread alone put rest to the claims that the right is the only source of crazy nutters with conspiracy theories. Have a look at yourselves.

    One would think Trump is responsible for all the Presidential assassination attempts since Lincoln from reading this thread.

  12. Biden Campaign Official: “The Biden campaign is pausing all outbound communications and working to pull down our television ads as quickly as possible”

  13. Lordbain,
    I’m on my phone you moron. There is no C+ for the phone. More’s the pity. Don’t worry I will be returning to my computer now that Insiders is over. Hallelujah! The less of your smarmy, self-serving crap, the better.

  14. The USA is a clear warning sign of where we’ll probably end up in 20 years time if we don’t take steps to reverse our own declining material and social standards of living. When people don’t trust their traditional politicians or other previously respected positions of authority and feel like they have nothing to lose then strongman fascists like Trump will naturally spring up as the solution in a lot of peoples minds.

  15. Biden finally gets the message: bow out honourably rather than lose in a landslide against the assassination-attempt-survivor-hero. Who will be the Democrats’ new sacrificial lamb? The lambs will be silent very soon.

  16. Diogenessays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 10:00 am
    Interesting to watch the Secret Service in action. I have to say everyone was amazingly brave including Trump.
    ===
    Yes. And whether by accident or design, Trump appears among all else to have pulled off a Reagan-Under-Fire. Bet he’s cracking jokes with the nurses now, posing for selfies & autographing casts.

  17. “I have an opinion, but I don’t have any facts,” Biden says when asked if this was an assassination attempt. He says he will speak on it when he has the facts .

    Hasn’t stopped the MAGA crew from going into hyper-ventilation. I wouldn’t want to be involved in politics in the US for the coming period.

  18. I reckon Trump’s health will have been adversely affected by this : how badly, it’s difficult to say just yet. If you look at the video, the assassin scored a clear hit and there was a lot of blood around his ear. He has had an enormous shock, and he is not a young man.

    Yes, he walked off the stage and his aides are reporting he’s ok. But let’s see how he is in the medium to longer term.

  19. Need to ad a few zeros BK, thats the modern fragment of the True Cross.

    Adrenaline and shock are a hell of a combo

  20. Can I just say, as much as the boss doesn’t like me talking about it 😉 that I have just spent a month in America and I can safely say that I didn’t feel threatened by their gun culture the whole time I was there. I didn’t see anyone carrying guns in the open on the streets and I spent a good 2 weeks in one of the murder capitals of the United States, Baltimore.

    This is exemplified by what we have seen today. A gun was used in a targeted attack. Yes there are mass shootings of innocent people but we just had a mass murder incident at Bondi Junction. So I think that a bit of perspective needs to be done when you make statements like you never want to go to America ever again.

    I think I will be going back there. My son lives there. I believe that I will be safe there. But if my number’s up one day then so be it. It could have been at Bondi Junction Westfield. That hasn’t stopped me going to shopping malls either.

    You can’t live your life in fear. That way lies madness.

    End of rant.

  21. Hopefully Joe’s wife, who from some reports has been so influential in urging him to stay on, will now start urging him to quit. He really needs to go.

  22. Socrates says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:15 am

    I agree the sound was soft and suggested only a BB gun was used. I.e. a pistol version of an air rifle.

    Your assessment of the accuracy and sound indicates too much acceptance of the TV/Hollywood depiction of weapons being fired.

    The audio I heard off the WSJ site was exactly what 5.56mm rifles sound like in reality – both the initial rounds and the return fire.

  23. I am trying to imagine how both candidates would react in a 9/11 situation. Both scenarios are frightening for different reasons.

  24. Meher
    While you’re here I just wanted to thank you for your excellent post a couple of days ago regarding the real underlying problem in fringe-dwelling or remote Indigenous communities. As usual it was informative and well researched and I have kept it for future reference.

    We really do need to get beyond the current mind set that seems to be taking us nowhere.

  25. I imagine Trump and Biden wear light Kevlar vests so a short at the head from that range is very difficult. Unless you are a sniper.

  26. UK cartoons and other miscellany (if anyone is interested today, given the fast-breaking news)

    Jonsey

    Clay Bennett

    Stokoe #SewasePolloution

    Patrick Blower

    Banx

    Tom Gauld

    Matt

    Harry Burton #ShelleyDuval

    Garthtoons

    Bill Whitehead

    Mark Parisi

    Chris Riddell

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

    Rob B
    @RobBfromDerby
    “You boy – have Labour fixed 14 years of Tory destruction yet?”

  27. “Silly question, why didn’t the secret service have all high ground covered?”

    There is always a grassy knoll. 🙂

    I suspect that the effect of this on voting will be minimal. Anyone exercised over this was already turning out for Trump.

  28. BREAKING: A Pennsylvania police source says they believe Trump was not struck by a bullet, but rather was hit by glass fragments from a teleprompter that may have been shattered.

Comments Page 3 of 21
1 2 3 4 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *