Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 21
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  1. FWIW, some news sources are naming the shooter as a Mark Violets, claiming he was a member of a radical group, had posted nutty stuff on social media.

  2. The similarities between the Trump incident and an 18th birthday party in the suburbs, with uninvited guests, a ruckus, and police attendance, together with the associated confusing “first hand” media interviews is disturbing.

    The accusations and ramifications of this incident will energies the nutters everywhere.

    (Like a PBer declaring the definitive answer to what calibre gun/rifle the shooter was or wasn’t using)

    (the nutter’s picnic is creating its own energy)

  3. BSA Bobsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:51 am
    Entropy & imacca 9.40pm

    1864
    =================================================

    Now it makes sense. Obviously your USA Civil war history knowledge is lot better than mine.

    So the reference was to USS Kearsarge destroying the confederate raider CSS Alabama.

  4. Dio

    Yes I was obviously wrong about the air rifle comment, my error. I take FUBAR’s point that the sound could have been a 5.56mm rifle.

    The small amount of blood on Trump’s ear is explained by the comment that it was from glass fragments not a bullet impact.

  5. Unfortunately I fear Dave Milner may be correct:

    This is an election winning photo. It will be everywhere. When the narrative is that the other guy can't even talk lucidly, walking away from a bullet with a raised fist and flags flying in the background is a hand full of aces. pic.twitter.com/mtRoNPkTvR— David Milner (@DaveMilbo) July 14, 2024

  6. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
    ., Ultra Conservatives, Religious Conservatives, …
    Is Conservatism consistent with Capitalism?
    No, conservatives are tending toward the Reactionary end of the spectrum, which makes them a Labor Party demographic.
    Anyone who’s had to endure a sermon in an Anglican Church in the last 50 years could tell you that.
    ===============================================

    Are you a parody account? If so, you are failing. Primarily a parody account should be funny and not mind numbingly stupid.

    “Australia’s main opposition party has named prominent conservative Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as leader, after a bruising election loss.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61628713

  7. The BLUEMAGA network is going nuts; its a falseflag, this changes nothing etc… man, imagine being that delusional.

    Presidents or presidential candidates that get shot at dont hurt in the polls, and the picture thats making the rounds is pretty much an election winner in its own right.

  8. Pied pipersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:33 am
    Surprise surprise it was when Trump was talking about illegal immigration that the shots ran out.

    The sickness of the global left.
    ===================================================

    Far less sick than those who want to link an assassination attempt to illegal immigration via the most flimsy of pretext. I guess when your a racist you believe everything is about race.

  9. LordB
    Two churches full of the converted. That picture isn’t going to make the 35% who are Trumpists more likely to vote for him. It might frighten the other church (never Trump GOP especially) goers who are not that fond of their preacher into turning out.

    How does it play out to the disengaged who largely stay home? How does it sit with Independents?

    I still think it depends on the washup and the way Trump and MAGA reacts in the coming month.

    Biden did a good presser. Best he has done to camera for some time.

  10. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 11:33 am
    Peter Dutton is no conservative.
    =========================================

    He believes he is and faction in the LNP he is part of also believe they are. That is what they like to call themselves. If you have a problem with the belief system of the monkey pod’s. Take it up with them.

  11. @Rex Blue MAGA Or Blue Anon are those who support Democrats or Vote Blue no matter who, regardless of the flaws of the candidate, party policy.
    Cult-like symptoms that mirror Red MAGA.
    Synonyms for Blue MAGA also are TDS sufferers.
    Again it is supposed to mirror RWNJs.
    Essentially the worst of the Left (Blue) and the Right (Red)

    Trump wins this election in a landslide in any case.
    The only thing that will change is who Trump’s VP will be. I was 90% sure it was JD Vance but now am leaning toward Tulsi, Carson or Scott

  12. Rex, bluemaga is the term going around to describe biden supporters that have basically started echoing maga talking points to defend biden.

    “he isnt that old”
    “it was just a stumble”
    “he is fighting the elite of the party and media”

    etc etc

    Basically those whose arguments against trump werent on principle, but only because trump is on the opposite team…

  13. Thanks BO and Lb.

    I get it now.

    BO , I’ll be catching up today with the Orioles and Yankee series. My Yankees in a bad patch and need to get back on the winning list.

  14. S. Simpsonsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 11:26 am
    Let’s hope that the shooter is not Ukrainian, or have links to Ukraine.
    ================================================

    As someone who has posted in the past in support of Putin’s Russia. I seriously doubt that your post is sincere. In fact i suspect you are actually duplicitously trying to raise this as a possibility.

  15. From the link about Dutton posted by Entropy:

    “One senior colleague, Stuart Robert, described him as “a warm-hearted, very decent, competent individual”.”

    That kind of recommendation is bankable at the ballot box.

  16. Baltimore Oriolesays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 11:41 am
    @Rex Blue MAGA Or Blue Anon are those who support Democrats or Vote Blue no matter who, regardless of the flaws of the candidate, party policy.
    Cult-like symptoms that mirror Red MAGA.
    Synonyms for Blue MAGA also are TDS sufferers.
    Again it is supposed to mirror RWNJs.
    Essentially the worst of the Left (Blue) and the Right (Red)

    Trump wins this election in a landslide in any case.
    The only thing that will change is who Trump’s VP will be. I was 90% sure it was JD Vance but now am leaning toward Tulsi, Carson or Scott
    ===================================================

    “but now am leaning toward Tulsi, Carson or Scott”

    I guess Putin hasn’t decided on which one yet.

    Though Trump would really be asking to be assassinated by the FSB. Once he became President, if any of those were his VP. It would just be to much for Russia to turn down i think. To have one of those VP’s getting to be President.

  17. I just can’t help thinking that if it had been the way around – Biden or Harris had been shot at – that Trump would not have been magnanimous and sympathetic as the Democrats have been. Witness his reaction to Nancy Pelosi’s husband.

  18. Ronnie Reagan was the other President shot by a Left Wing nutjob.
    Fortunately, he survived.
    So, that’s all the Centrists and Republican Presidents shot.
    Now, let’s examine the assassins>
    John Wilkes Booth, luvvie actor, shot Abraham Lincoln
    Leon Coglosz, [shot McKinley], anarchist, associate of Emma Glodman, Communist
    Leee Harvey Oswald, communist nutjob, shot JFK
    John Hinckley, nutjob, possible communist [shot Ronnie]
    Charles Guiteau, leftist fruitlcake, member of the Oneida community, shot Garfield in 1881.
    Squeaky Fromme, enviro nutjob, pointed loaded gun at Gerald Ford.
    Leftism, it’s Mental Illness, now some Antifa has killed one person, possibly more, winged Trump.

  19. @Rex Yankees have been doing well.
    We’ve been on a bit of losing streak.
    Good fight the other day though!

    Still think Phillies/Guardians World Series.

  20. BRISBANE (QLD, 3.7% v LNP):PM Anthony Albanese has today announced that Deloitte director Madonna Jarrett will be Labor’s candidate to challenge Greens incumbent Stephen Bates at the next federal election.— Preselection Updates (@Preselection_AU) July 13, 2024

    ‘Deloitte director ‘

  21. Amazing footage, HoldenHillybilly!

    The SS sniper looks up from his sights, then seems to realise that the shooter is about to fire, so snap fires immediately – and before the sound of two other shots.

  22. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:06 pm
    Ronnie Reagan was the other President shot by a Left Wing nutjob.
    Fortunately, he survived.
    So, that’s all the Centrists and Republican Presidents shot.
    Now, let’s examine the assassins>
    John Wilkes Booth, luvvie actor, shot Abraham Lincoln
    Leon Coglosz, [shot McKinley], anarchist, associate of Emma Glodman, Communist
    Leee Harvey Oswald, communist nutjob, shot JFK
    John Hinckley, nutjob, possible communist [shot Ronnie]
    Charles Guiteau, leftist fruitlcake, member of the Oneida community, shot Garfield in 1881.
    Squeaky Fromme, enviro nutjob, pointed loaded gun at Gerald Ford.
    Leftism, it’s Mental Illness, now some Antifa has killed one person, possibly more, winged Trump.
    ==============================================

    To bad we can’t generate energy from stupidity. As i think we may have found an unlimited source.

    Quote 1: ‘Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.’

    Quote 2: “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

  23. Anyway, this must be the worst assassination attempt in the history of assassination attempts.

    I’ve bought the T shirt.

  24. Prediction
    Male
    White
    30-35
    Spent a few years in military
    Unemployed
    Increasingly embittered
    No girlfriend/partner
    Heavy social media presence
    Increasingly strident on SM
    On some watch list but never committed serious crime before
    Parents and friends worried about him
    Gun fetish
    Neighbours say quiet and polite
    Has a basement
    Has a manifesto

  25. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:13 am

    ‘Player One says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:02 am

    Confessions @ #37 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 8:56 am

    President Biden when asked about the incident: “My thoughts are with Kamala Harris and her family.”


    ——————
    What a card you are, P1. You never fail with your jolly japes. How about:

    When asked about the incident Trump said, ‘This is what happens when Nicki Haley is in charge of security and because President Obama ordered the hit job. Hannibal Lecter, a wonderful person, did it.’

  26. Entropy @ #162 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 11:28 am

    Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 8:05 am
    ., Ultra Conservatives, Religious Conservatives, …
    Is Conservatism consistent with Capitalism?
    No, conservatives are tending toward the Reactionary end of the spectrum, which makes them a Labor Party demographic.
    Anyone who’s had to endure a sermon in an Anglican Church in the last 50 years could tell you that.
    ===============================================

    Are you a parody account? If so, you are failing. Primarily a parody account should be funny and not mind numbingly stupid.

    “Australia’s main opposition party has named prominent conservative Peter Dutton to succeed Scott Morrison as leader, after a bruising election loss.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61628713

    Badthinker @ #185 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 12:06 pm

    Ronnie Reagan was the other President shot by a Left Wing nutjob.
    Fortunately, he survived.
    So, that’s all the Centrists and Republican Presidents shot.
    Now, let’s examine the assassins>
    John Wilkes Booth, luvvie actor, shot Abraham Lincoln
    Leon Coglosz, [shot McKinley], anarchist, associate of Emma Glodman, Communist
    Leee Harvey Oswald, communist nutjob, shot JFK
    John Hinckley, nutjob, possible communist [shot Ronnie]
    Charles Guiteau, leftist fruitlcake, member of the Oneida community, shot Garfield in 1881.
    Squeaky Fromme, enviro nutjob, pointed loaded gun at Gerald Ford.
    Leftism, it’s Mental Illness, now some Antifa has killed one person, possibly more, winged Trump.

    Didn’t you just say someone else was displaying the Dunning-Kruger effect?
    (the above and “Progressivism is the same as Bolshevism”)

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