Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:
• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.
• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.
• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.
• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.
Bystander@10.31am: “Meher
While you’re here I just wanted to thank you for your excellent post a couple of days ago regarding the real underlying problem in fringe-dwelling or remote Indigenous communities. As usual it was informative and well researched and I have kept it for future reference.
We really do need to get beyond the current mind set that seems to be taking us nowhere.”
——————————————————————————–
Thanks so much. Occasionally I get inspired to write a mini essay and post it on PB. I often assume that everybody scrolls past them. It’s nice to know that somebody read one of them and apparently enjoyed it.
Quasar @ #198 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 12:25 pm
Are you serious?
Has the NRA done thoughts and prayers yet?
Anyone who thinks this was staged by Trump or organised by Biden is as mentally incompetent as they are.
I would suggest ignoring anything you hear or read right now that is not from official sources, mainstream media or an actual bystander. Anything not from those sources is likely to be speculation at best.
Edit: Even the last two should be carefully considered for accuracy, context and whether they appear to be speculating or reporting.
Goats in Australia are a major driver of the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/14/goats-of-gold-australias-feral-goat-problem-has-become-a-235m-export-trade
I’m ‘firming’ in support of this source of consistent energy supply.
Well Trump was going to declare antifa as a terrorist organisation if elected.
You can now take that to the bank .
They claim they are non violent .
What else have they been up to?
European Parliament in it was stated that Antifa had drawn up a “death list “ of 53 politicians.12.1.22
Racists!
Fuck.
Badthinker: “Ronnie Reagan was the other President shot by a Left Wing nutjob.
Fortunately, he survived.
So, that’s all the Centrists and Republican Presidents shot.
Now, let’s examine the assassins>
John Wilkes Booth, luvvie actor, shot Abraham Lincoln
Leon Coglosz, [shot McKinley], anarchist, associate of Emma Glodman, Communist
Leee Harvey Oswald, communist nutjob, shot JFK
John Hinckley, nutjob, possible communist [shot Ronnie]
Charles Guiteau, leftist fruitlcake, member of the Oneida community, shot Garfield in 1881.
Squeaky Fromme, enviro nutjob, pointed loaded gun at Gerald Ford.
Leftism, it’s Mental Illness, now some Antifa has killed one person, possibly more, winged Trump.”
——————————————————————————–
Consult your history books, or even Wikipedia will do.
John Wilkes Booth was a disgruntled pro-Confederate white supremacist.
John Hinckley was just a nutjob: an obsessive fan of the movie Taxi Driver and one of its stars, Jodie Foster. He simply wanted to shoot a president, any president. He stalked Jimmy Carter for a time before switching to Reagan after the 1980 election.
Charles Guiteau was also mainly a nutjob: he suffered from some sort of delusion that he was personally responsible for Garfield getting elected and was therefore owed a sinecure. His mental health issues led to him becoming alienated from the Oneida community: which was not a leftist organisation, but a mad Christian cult which wasn’t quite mad enough to tolerate Guiteau.
We will never know exactly what drove Lee Harvey Oswald. Was he a fervent communist, a Soviet agent, an American agent, a double agent, or just a lunatic? Why did he need to be permanently silenced by Jack Ruby? The assassination of JFK is just about the only historical event about which I think it is reasonable for people to devise conspiracy theories, because, as far as we know it, the truth doesn’t make much sense.
Squeaky Fromme was another one who was mainly just bonkers. She had been a prominent member of Charles Manson’s “Family.” She pretended that she wanted to talk to Gerald Ford about trees as a pretext to get close to him, but there’s no other evidence of her having been an active environmentalist. I think she was mainly motivated by her unhappiness that Manson was in prison.
I think it’s totally reasonable to call Coglosz a lefty. So that’s 1 out of 6.
Asha
Shortest post in the history of PB?
OC, thats usually me with the DK effect
Honestly engaging with Badthinker is the classic pigeon playing chess problem, and best ignored
For those who are uncertain of what comes next, I thought I would reshare my 2024 predictions. At the moment I am counting 2 out of 10 as successful and 8 still to be decided with most looking good to come true at this time. I reckon I will end up with at least 7 out of 10.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, December 30, 2023 at 3:57 pm
My ten predictions for 2024:
1 – Victorian liberals never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity . Dunkley will be a Labor retain. SUCCESSFUL
2- Albo will be replaced mid year by Jim Chalmers, with an election soon after. TBC – I define success as this happening by SEPT 12
3 – labor will be returned as a minority govt with 72 seats with a supply and confidence arrangement with the greens and teals. Liberals will gain 6 seats from Labor and 2 from teals. TBC
4- qld Labor is defeated and a minority lnp govt wins state election. TBC – but looking good
5- Higgins/ lehrmann will lead to a nacc hearing about the 2m settlement. TBC
6- neither trump nor Biden will be elected president in the us presidential election in November. TBC was looking good but the assassination attempt today may change this
7- Netanyahu will cling on in israel – Gaza Palestinians will effectively be expelled to Sinai. TBC – looking good though as Israeli PM has a 3 months caretaker period
8- ukr war will end in a ceasefire in Dec 2024 based on current lines of control. TBC – looking good given the assassination attempt
9- Solomon Islands will agree to Chinese ships having rest and refuelling rights in its territory. TBC
10 – lots more discussion about AUKUS but nothing of any substance. SUCCESFUL
Milwaukee and Chicago CBDs will be locked down like Fort Knox in the coming weeks.
Can’t imagine a Labor or Liberal campaign launch ever being comparable.
I should add re Squeaky Fromme that, to the extent that Manson’s bonkers ideology can be categorised in any meaningful way, I think “white supremacism” is the most appropriate term. And, last time I looked, that’s a right-wing philosophy.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:30 pm
Entropy @ #162 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 11:28 am
==============================================
If the question in your post was directed at me. The answer is no i didn’t say any such thing nor anything like it.
BW, the Flinders is packed with goats again. Not too big a deal after some reasonable seasons, but that will soon rapidly change.
But nothing like the number of roadside goats I just saw driving from Broken Hill to Mildura. Serious numbers and all with kids.
I’m in two minds. Free roam stock is certainly better than the heavily stocked fenced land south of the flinders, and better than clear fell cropped land – obviously. Imo, a little effort here would go a long way. Round them up regularly – in good times, selling them would pretty much cover the roundup cost even if using helicopters. Then, as hard times bite, spend the dosh and make a real culling effort. You won’t eradicate them (especially with the f’ing goat farmers not containing them properly), but native wildlife has a chance.
[‘Has your mum ever called you by your sister’s name? Does your dad sometimes yell for you when he is actually talking to the dog?
Misnaming is a common cognitive slip which has been in the spotlight after US President Joe Biden’s unfortunate press conference where he mixed up the name of his own vice-president Kamala Harris with his political nemesis, Donald Trump.
Earlier, Mr Biden had to correct himself after introducing Ukrainian’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “President Putin” to an audience of journalists.
The gaffes have not helped quell growing speculation about the fitness of the current president to do the job for another four years if he wins another term in November.
However, brain scientists say misnaming people is not always a sign of cognitive decline, but rather a “common slip-up” that can be brought on by stress, not enough sleep, or a lack of concentration.
Why do we forget or misname people we know?
Clinical Neuropsychologist and Senior Research Fellow at Flinders University Stephanie Wong said the brain tends to group names which are related or sound the same.
Under stress, without proper sleep, or if we are not concentrating, the brain will reach for those similar sounding or grouped names when we speak.
That is why family members commonly misname one another, and could be an explanation of Mr Biden’s mix-up with Ms Harris and Mr Trump.
“It seems to be related to the way our brains process language,” Dr Wong said.
“When you bring to mind one thing, it is likely that your brain will also be activating similar neural patterns for related names or objects.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-14/us-president-joe-biden-slip-ups-trump-misnaming-are-common/104092304
Introducing Zelenskyy as Putin, then, was most likely just a mere slip of the tongue – nothing to see here.
Lordbainsays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:46 pm
OC, thats usually me with the DK effect
Honestly engaging with Badthinker is the classic pigeon playing chess problem, and best ignored
================================================
Yet we have a large proportion of USA willing to vote for Trump. With a lot of what his says not much different to a “Badthinker” rant. Possibly we do need to engage with this fake crap. As some politician seem to be successfully using it to win votes. Though i didn’t really engage in this case just derided it. If you want to see an actual factual engagement of the current “Badthinker” rubbish he has been spamming us on repeat today. See meher baba says: Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:43 pm post.
Thats what I mean Entropy; you, mehar, OC, pretty much everyone has given in-depth, fact based rebuttals to them, and they keeps going on.
I dont think they are acting in good faith, so im not sure how much is being achieved. I like reading the responses, but yeh…
‘Team Katich says:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:00 pm
BW, the Flinders is packed with goats again. Not too big a deal after some reasonable seasons, but that will soon rapidly change.
But nothing like the number of roadside goats I just saw driving from Broken Hill to Mildura. Serious numbers and all with kids.
I’m in two minds. Free roam stock is certainly better than the heavily stocked fenced land south of the flinders, and better than clear fell cropped land – obviously. Imo, a little effort here would go a long way. Round them up regularly – in good times, selling them would pretty much cover the roundup cost even if using helicopters. Then, as hard times bite, spend the dosh and make a real culling effort. You won’t eradicate them (especially with the f’ing goat farmers not containing them properly), but native wildlife has a chance.’
—————–
Yep. The right policies are not black and white. For example harvesting them out of national parks for a commercial return looks like a win win. The trouble is that this creates a party – harvesters and/or neighbouring properties – interested in maintaining goats in national parks. The goat farms I have been able to observe are basically total clearing regimes with the goats preventing regeneration. Come back in a century and the veg will only knee high in good seasons and absent in bad seasons. The tree and shrub layers will be gone completely. The loss of biodiversity it immense.
Mavis says Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:01 pm
Especially as he immediately corrected himself. I have already expressed concerns about Biden’s cognitive capacity, but this slip didn’t worry me. He was probably thinking about Putin as he was talking. This is the sort of thing that can happen to anyone.
As Bill Clinton said voters prefer strong and wrong than weak and right.
Q – given the assassination attempt and that photo can Trump even be beaten? Bizarrely he’s actually had a massive stroke of luck politically with the assassination attempt.
My guess is with the attention on Trump and the Republican convention coming – he will get some sort of small polling bounce and the Dems will be pretty much out of time to credibly swap out Biden. It would take Obama/Clinton/ Pelosi et al calling on Biden to drop out publicly to have any chance of success now.
Let it be noted in these days of male bashing that most of these are done by men.
Lordbainsays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:13 pm
Thats what I mean Entropy; you, mehar, OC, pretty much everyone has given in-depth, fact based rebuttals to them, and they keeps going on.
I dont think they are acting in good faith, so im not sure how much is being achieved. I like reading the responses, but yeh…
==============================================
Yet Trump does the same. Numerous sources point out his lies but he continues on with them. So should responsible news sources start ignoring his lies that have already been called out? or should they keep pointing to the facts whenever he brings up that lie again?
Entropy
it was Badthinker who made the claims about assassins and progressivism.
I think your response got tied up in mine
Bystandersays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:18 pm
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Here are the most dangerous jobs in Australia:
https://www.lhd.com.au/lhd-insights/most-dangerous-jobs-australia/
Let it be noted in these days of male bashing that most of these are done by men.
==================================================
Also note we don’t have slavery in Australia, at least for these jobs. Hence those doing it have chosen to do that job. Does this just mean women are smarter?
Entropy, honestly my view is the removal of platforms in that case.
Trump is never going to change the facts; so either you have a platform which has these falsehoods being spread (even with rebuttal, the average human has a really nasty quirk of trusting the first piece of information that hear on a topic), or you just… dont.
Its not perfect, and the free speech absolutionists will be cranky, but boo hoo
a wikipedia entry has been started, will be updated as new information becomes available.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_shooting_at_a_Donald_Trump_rally
If I were the Democrats I’d try to appear like the safe and sane choice.
My pick is still “stay with Biden”, but if you pick anyone else do it NOW.
You can’t have weeks of drama and chaos and look even more weak.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Goats in Australia are a major driver of the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/14/goats-of-gold-australias-feral-goat-problem-has-become-a-235m-export-trade
The problem at the moment, good season, reduced prices. The incentive to round them up has gone.
Gosh,
I impulsively wrote that fleeting thought and deleted as soon as I could,
hoping no one had spotted it!
Ah well…
I would say a majority of Americans know Trump is a bullshit artist.
Its just that they are not going to have a majority vote for Biden , because of the perception rightly or wrongly that he’s a beer short of a six pack.
Any Democrat nominee who is minimally qualified would still beat Trump, but it may just be the case that they are out of time to swap out Biden.
Rex, if there is to be a Snowy 3.0, I just hope they do a bit of planning before they crank up the tunnel boring machine. Maybe a geotechnical survey or somesuch. Just to prove they’ve learnt from 2.0.
bc:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:15 pm
Noted & agree. When I last went to the UK it took me a fortnight to fully recover from jet lag. Biden recently travelled to Europe twice and had a gruelling schedule. No surprise then, that he wasn’t at his cognitive best on his return to the US.
‘frednk says:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:26 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Goats in Australia are a major driver of the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/14/goats-of-gold-australias-feral-goat-problem-has-become-a-235m-export-trade
The problem at the moment, good season, reduced prices. The incentive to round them up has gone.’
——————————–
The larger context, IMO, is that while there is a harvesting regime there is little incentive for governments to spend millions on eliminating goats from national parks.
This basically leaves rangeland and arid biodiversity to the vagaries of international markets and domestic seasons.
In terms of extinction processes this means that, periodically, peak goat numbers will feed into minimum ‘feed’ availability. They will eat themselves to starvation levels. Over time this will lead to the loss of tree and shrub layers and to zip biodiversity except what lives in bare dirt.
This is classic Australian boom and bust but with the wild cards of the ferals, including goats, thrown in the ring.
Quasar says:
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:27 pm
Gosh,
I impulsively wrote that fleeting thought and deleted as soon as I could,
hoping no one had spotted it!
Ah well…
So you agree with Asha’s response.
Dutton is aping Trump.
What is not to like?
I think so Lars.
If they’re going to swap, needs to happen sooner. Has to be a clean swap too, not a bunfight
With majority vote though, I think the Dems will win the popular vote, just not the college vote – if that is what you meant.
I’d have thought this was trolling if I didn’t know from experience that you genuinely are this stupid.
There is something of a possibility that the huge stress of surviving an assassination attempt will accelerate Trump’s dementia.
I am not sure about the probabilities involved. It could be zero. It could be quite high.
However, I imagine that it will do nothing to improve his malignant narcissism.
Boerwar
You will never eliminate feral goats. We have just been through years where every goat you found on your property was $100. People brought properties and paid for them by shipping off the feral goats. As you have observed they have bounced back.
Perhaps they are. But for me it means that those men deserve a hell of a lot of respect and thanks for being prepared to do the dirty and dangerous jobs so that women don’t have to do them.
Mavis
Not a fair comparison
You were flying 24 hours in, at best, the pointy end of the plane, not a 7 hour trip in Air Force One.
Even if this was a fair comparison, you are in charge of a caravan park which lacks a nuclear deterrent. The difference in consequences of impaired performance are staggering.
OC, I dont understand why that part is so hard for people to grasp.
I could ride 40kms comfortably at my own pace; if I had to ride at an Olympic speed I would not be able to cope.
The role of US presidency is pretty much one of the toughest jobs on the planet; it requires a level of health, fitness etc that anyone over the age of 80 is very unlikely to be able to maintian.
And yes, Trump shouldnt be running, but Biden purports to be better then Trump…
The thing about dramatic political events is that they often shake loose a whole lot of stresses that have building up.
Therefore the results are often totally logical in retrospect even though they may be totally unpredictable at the time
Every situation is different because there are different constellations of stresses in operation
Be very careful about predicting the outcomes in this case
Indeed LB, the excuses are that he is not so bad for an 81 year old (ditto for Trump at 77) but for the presidency the bar must be set above “not so bad”
I have a golden rule that I will not be operated on by a surgeon older than 65 and will seriously review one over 60 and yet these charlies are a decade older and want to control the fate of the world.
@Holden – I agree that it’s clearly neither a Trump false flag event (too close) nor a Biden planned assassination (both because come on, and also because it was so half – arsed for something actually organised), but Trump support is definitely deranged enough to decide this was the “Deep State” trying to silence their man and it will help get out the vote for him.
As usual, an extremist fucker has made everything worse.
I should clarify that my one-word post earlier wasn’t a response to anything that anybody here said, but rather just a reaction to the situation in general.
Would appear further information is leaking about the shooter……………..
Article on NBC news. Scroll down to the journalist Kelly O’Donnell
“Federal investigators have tentatively identified the man who shot at Trump today in Pennsylvania: He is about 20 and is from Pennsylvania, according to five senior U.S. law enforcement officials briefed on the matter.”
Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/trump-biden-rnc-election-live-updates-rcna161404