Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)

The race for the new WA seat of Bullwinkel takes shape, five Liberal candidates line up to succeed a retiring member in the SA seat of Grey, plus more Victorian redistribution aftermath.

Federal polls may be coming down the line shortly from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review. Until then:

• The West Australian reports three potential contenders for Liberal preselection in the new seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s eastern hinterland, which by my reckoning has a notional Labor margin of 2.9%: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter who ran unsuccessfully for the Curtin preselection in February; Holly Ludeman, a veterinarian and activist in the campaign against a ban on live sheep exports; and Jonathan Crabtree, a commercial and estate planning lawyer who led the Senate ticket of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives in 2019. The paper earlier reported that Labor preselection would be contested by Kyle McGinn, a former Maritime Union of Australia organiser who has served in the state Legislative Council for Mining and Pastoral region since 2017, and there are suggestions the Nationals candidate will be former state party leader Mia Davies.

• InDaily reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey, its member since 2007: Dean Johnson, mayor of Kimba and president of the Local Government Association; Tom Venning, Barunga Grains farming manager; Rikki Lambert, former chief-of-staff to Family First senator Bob Day; Matt Sampson, a Whyalla police officer; and Suzanne Waters, who ran in the seat for the United Australia Party in 2022.

• Nine Newspapers reports on expectations that Michelle Ananda-Rajah will run in Liberal-held Deakin or Menzies with the proposed abolition of her existing seat of Higgins, which she gained for Labor from the Liberals for the first time in the seat’s history in 2022.

• Labor has announced candidates in its Coalition-held targets in Brisbane: disability advocate Ali France in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, where she also ran in 2019 and 2022; Rebecca Hack, a former school principal now of the Queensland Teachers Union, in the Greens-held seat of Ryan; and Rowan Holzberger, electorate officer to Senator Murray Watt and candidate from 2022, again to run in Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselection news (open thread)”

Comments Page 8 of 21
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  1. “Remember the thundering herd of MSM floozies gushing all over Gillard’s coat & her shoe?” I do.
    I also remember that a month or so later media darling Princess Kate had a shoe malfunction & the reporting was somewhat more gushing-pressing on, showing indomitable courage, on & on. I thought they’d start talking about Waterloo & Rorke’s Drift.

  4. According to CNN, the FBI has now confirmed the shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania.

    The ABC are reporting the shooter’s location as being approximately 120m from the stage Trump was on. 120m is pretty close for someone with a high powered rifle (assuming it was). Looking at the video, Trump appears to be facing in the direction of the shooter when he was hit. Given the angle, I doubt this was a shard of glass from a teleprompter as some have speculated.

    https://au-img-cdn.livecenter.com/lc-aus-images/lcimg-7f705833-b741-4afb-85ff-2cad22fc067c.jpeg

  5. Taylormade @ #341 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 3:42 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 3:20 pm
    confessions
    Were his shoes really off?
    _____________________
    Does it really matter?
    Did he get shot because he had his shoes off.

    Of course he wasn’t shot because he had his shoes off.

    This a curiosity about the moment that like everything that circles around Trump, is completely crazy.

    Just like reports from his NY hush money trial that he had an odd odour about him.
    Just like him walking up the stairs to Air Force 1 with toilet paper stuck to his shoe.
    Just like his comments that to cure COVID just inject bleach.
    Just like him staring at an eclipse without glasses.
    Just like a gazillion other things that he’s said or done that are simply beyond bizarre.

    And now we have the weird fact of him asking to put his shoes on before Secret Service agents get him to the safety of an armoured car in the midsts of an assassination attempt. I don’t know about you, but if I were shot at and a bullet grazed my ear, the shoes can stay where they bloody well are. I’m hoofing my ass to the bullet proof car.

  6. Confessions @ #355 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 4:01 pm

    Taylormade @ #341 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 3:42 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 3:20 pm
    confessions
    Were his shoes really off?
    _____________________
    Does it really matter?
    Did he get shot because he had his shoes off.

    Of course he wasn’t shot because he had his shoes off.

    This a curiosity about the moment that like everything that circles around Trump, is completely crazy.

    Just like reports from his NY hush money trial that he had an odd odour about him.
    Just like him walking up the stairs to Air Force 1 with toilet paper stuck to his shoe.
    Just like his comments that to cure COVID just inject bleach.
    Just like him staring at an eclipse without glasses.
    Just like a gazillion other things that he’s said or done that are simply beyond bizarre.

    And now we have the weird fact of him asking to put his shoes on before Secret Service agents get him to the safety of an armoured car in the midsts of an assassination attempt. I don’t know about you, but if I were shot at and a bullet grazed my ear, the shoes can stay where they bloody well are. I’m hoofing my ass to the bullet proof car.

    Worrying about your shoes is by no means the craziest thing that I have heard from someone who has suffered significant trauma.

  10. According to my oldest offspring, who follows these things closely, shooter Crooks is rumoured online to come from the lunar right. Might be one of those who think that Trump wasn’t sufficiently pro-life.

  12. bc: “Given the angle, I doubt this was a shard of glass from a teleprompter as some have speculated.”

    I believe Trump himself has confirmed he was struck directly by a bullet.

  13. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:09 pm
    I reckon the US Supreme Court should overturn today’s outcome and declare Trump legally dead.
    ============================================

    Doesn’t Biden have the supreme power to do that? Thanks to SCOTUS.

  14. Asha at 3:11 pm
    Trump is in his late seventies and borderline obese, yet completely avoids any kind of exercise (because he believes that exercise drains the body’s finite reserve of energy) and apparently lives of junk food and fizzy drinks.
    Here’s a tip, Asha.
    Trump has all his meals cooked by his own chefs and has a food taster.
    Of course, if this was known, he’d appear to be one of the elites, which is exactly what he is.
    But,… Big Macs, supersize fries and Cokes, yeah, believe that if it makes you feel better.
    On exercise, though, yeah, it does wear you out.
    Quickly.
    Jim Fixx, wrote The Complete Book of Running, dropped dead at 52, while … running.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Fixx
    Jim Fixx’s dad was a Time colleague of a truly great American, Whittaker Chambers.

  15. Oakeshott Country @ #236 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 4:06 pm

    Confessions @ #355 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 4:01 pm

    Taylormade @ #341 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 3:42 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 3:20 pm
    confessions
    Were his shoes really off?
    _____________________
    Does it really matter?
    Did he get shot because he had his shoes off.

    Of course he wasn’t shot because he had his shoes off.

    This a curiosity about the moment that like everything that circles around Trump, is completely crazy.

    Just like reports from his NY hush money trial that he had an odd odour about him.
    Just like him walking up the stairs to Air Force 1 with toilet paper stuck to his shoe.
    Just like his comments that to cure COVID just inject bleach.
    Just like him staring at an eclipse without glasses.
    Just like a gazillion other things that he’s said or done that are simply beyond bizarre.

    And now we have the weird fact of him asking to put his shoes on before Secret Service agents get him to the safety of an armoured car in the midsts of an assassination attempt. I don’t know about you, but if I were shot at and a bullet grazed my ear, the shoes can stay where they bloody well are. I’m hoofing my ass to the bullet proof car.

    Worrying about your shoes is by no means the craziest thing that I have heard from someone who has suffered significant trauma.

    OC

    Is there likely to be a delayed reaction to this sort of trauma?.We saw his adrenaline fuelled reaction in the moment but I wonder if reactions after a few hours or days are likely to be rather different

  17. If you’re an ADF serving member or veteran you’d be utterly horrified at the state of the ADF left by the former Govt and ADF Command, as well as the current decision making.

    Just a colossal case of incompetence.

  18. I am equally disgusted that a political candidate is subject to violence whoever it is. Can we do without the conspiracy theories about a staged attack or a Biden bidding from either side on PB please. Someone from the crowd is dead and the shooter is dead. Respectful commentary required here yes ?

  19. Ajm
    I agree it will be interesting.
    The sensible thing would be to have some time off and get counselling (it it helps and it may not) but Trump would see that as weakness and he will try to ride it out.

  20. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:14 pm
    Asha at 3:11 pm
    Trump is in his late seventies and borderline obese, yet completely avoids any kind of exercise (because he believes that exercise drains the body’s finite reserve of energy) and apparently lives of junk food and fizzy drinks.
    Here’s a tip, Asha.
    Trump has all his meals cooked by his own chefs and has a food taster.
    Of course, if this was known, he’d appear to be one of the elites, which is exactly what he is.
    But,… Big Macs, supersize fries and Cokes, yeah, believe that if it makes you feel better.
    ==========================================

    Badthinker flogging alternative facts again. Colour me surprised.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/16/golf-three-tvs-big-macs-bed-my-week-living-as-donald-trump

  23. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:40 pm
    Mavis
    Not a fair comparison
    You were flying 24 hours in, at best, the pointy end of the plane, not a 7 hour trip in Air Force One.
    Even if this was a fair comparison, you are in charge of a caravan park which lacks a nuclear deterrent. The difference in consequences of impaired performance are staggering.
    _______

    Sorry for coming late to this but I wonder what the cabin pressure is on Air force One? Newer planes like the 787 and A350 probably would have higher pressures and would be less likely to cause post-flight confusion?

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8281225/

    NB:- I am not saying this is what Biden experienced. However, I have seen more than a few older people with this condition.

  24. Pretty obviously there’s something amiss with the shooting narrative.
    If the sniper blew Crooks head off, then he got at least 4 shots away before that.
    So, is it a Huey Long scenario?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Huey_Long#:~:text=On%20September%208%2C%201935%2C%20United,Capitol%20in%20Baton%20Rouge%2C%20Louisiana.
    And he’s a Republican too?
    Joined last week, by any chance?
    By my calculation, this is the first Campaign Trail assassination attempt since a nutter put Right Winger George Wallace in a wheelchair in 1972

  25. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:29 pm
    Pretty obviously there’s something amiss with the shooting narrative.
    If the sniper blew Crooks head off, then he got at least 4 shots away before that.
    So, is it a Huey Long scenario?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Huey_Long#:~:text=On%20September%208%2C%201935%2C%20United,Capitol%20in%20Baton%20Rouge%2C%20Louisiana.
    And he’s a Republican too?
    Joined last week, by any chance?
    ===========================================

    Don’t you read other peoples posts? His registration was posted earlier, it was 28 Sept 2021.

    Here it is again:

    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 3:37 pm
    Shooter a registered Republican!! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSa5gNGXoAACJkR?format=jpg&name=orig

  26. Lordbain

    Trump got dogpiled by this detail; chances are someone stepped on a shoe, or it came of at an angle.

    This is probably what happened, but I prefer to imagine Trump is just constantly losing his shoes a’la Frank Reynolds.

  27. Sounds like the shooter was a traditional conservative Republican doing what he thought was protecting democracy.

  28. Badthinker says Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:29 pm

    Pretty obviously there’s something amiss with the shooting narrative.
    If the sniper blew Crooks head off, then he got at least 4 shots away before that.
    So, is it a Huey Long scenario?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Huey_Long#:~:text=On%20September%208%2C%201935%2C%20United,Capitol%20in%20Baton%20Rouge%2C%20Louisiana.
    And he’s a Republican too?
    Joined last week, by any chance?
    By my calculation, this is the first Campaign Trail assassination attempt since a nutter put Right Winger George Wallace in a wheelchair in 1972

    The shooter registered as a Republican in 2021 and voted in 2022. There was enough time for the shooter to fire multiple shots before he was killed. I’m sure reporting will provide more information about him in the coming hours and days as his social connections are analysed and friends and family interviewed.

    It will be an interesting investigation. Some people saw the shooter and attempted to alert police several minutes before the shooting.

    As much as we are focusing on Trump and the identity and motivation of the shooter, we also need to consider the people in the audience who were killed or seriously injured. This will be a very traumatic, and potentially life changing event for them, their family and those near them in the crowd.

    Generations ago Robert Kennedy gave a speech about ripples becoming waves. Some waves can bring a great deal of harm and sadness.

  29. Might be a registered Republican, reports that the shooter was involved in anti Trump and moderate Dem stuff as well.

    And… none of this will matter

  30. By my calculation, this is the first Campaign Trail assassination attempt since a nutter put Right Winger George Wallace in a wheelchair in 1972
    =====================================================

    Trump supporter David DePape was trying to assassinate Nancy Pelosi when he attacked her husband.

    “The man accused of breaking into US politician Nancy Pelosi’s home and attacking her husband with a hammer was motivated by conspiracy theories, his lawyer has said as his trial begins.

    David DePape believed Mrs Pelosi was part of a plot to “manipulate the country” and “steal votes from Donald Trump”, a court in San Francisco heard.”
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67372363

  31. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called on Australians to lower the temperature of public debate over divisive issues such as the war in Gaza as he expressed his horror at the attempt on the life of former president Donald Trump.

    Albanese would not be drawn on whether the failed assassination attempt would force changes to security measures for Australian MPs, but drew a link between America’s fractious political culture and recent attacks on MPs’ offices and on parliamentarians being harassed by protesters.

    “We must lower [the] temperature of debate. There is nothing to be served by some of the escalation of rhetoric that we see in some of our political debate, political discourse, in the democratic world. It’s a phenomenon that’s not unique to the United States,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-warns-things-can-escalate-in-local-protests-20240714-p5jtiu.html

    Coincidentally, and totally unrelated to today’s events in America, today’s Gaza protests in the Sydney CBD had the largest crowds I’ve seen since last year.

  33. I believe Trump himself has confirmed he was struck directly by a bullet.
    ————————————————————–
    Reason enough to doubt it.

  34. Rex Douglas @ #377 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 4:06 pm

    Sounds like the shooter was a traditional conservative Republican doing what he thought was protecting democracy.

    Or maybe he was psychotic or maybe he just wanted to go down with some notoriety. We don’t know. There’s absolutely no point in baselessly speculating until we know more because we risk just creating false narratives that could lead to unfairly altering political outcomes or, even worse, more violence.

    Everyone has to be patient and wait until the full story comes out. And, as for political fallout, we have to wait even longer. I know it sucks and anxiety is high but there are a lot of bad faith actors feeding on that and trying to spread misinformation to validate their priors and push their narratives. Unfortunately, when the truth is fully laid out, there will be far-too-many people who ignore it if it doesn’t match what they already believe but the least we, on this site for political discourse and (I like to believe) some level-headedness, can aim to be as reasonable as possible on this.

  38. Susan Grenon was watching Trump’s rally live from her hotel room when she saw a violent and chaotic scene unfold in front of her eyes.

    “I started screaming and crying,” said Grenon, 56.

    Grenon, who came to Milwaukee for the GOP convention this week as part of the Republican delegation from Rhode Island, decided that she needed to be “with my people,” she said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/13/2024-election-campaign-updates-biden-trump-rally/#author-box

    Prepare for lots of this over the coming week. I said earlier that the Trump grievance campaign will be in hyper drive, and it won’t all be coming from his campaign.

  39. Badthinker says Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:45 pm

    What are the odds?
    Registered Republican fires shot at Trump?
    A million to one?

    As it’s now happened, the odds are 1:1. As for why, time might tell.

    I’m sure there are plenty of relieved Democrats and confused Republicans about now. I’m also sure that there are members of the right wing commentariat who are deeply disappointed that the shooter was not a paid up member of antifa.

  40. To wit, the last time there was an attempted assassination of a US President, that of Reagan in 1981, the motivation of the shooter wasn’t anything political. He was mentally ill and developed an erotomanic obsession with Jodie Foster (after seeing her in Taxi Driver – which she was only 13) and believed killing the President would impress her.

  42. Possum Comitatus@Pollytics:
    Something that some of you ought think about hard. If your first reaction to today’s events was “this is staged”, have a good, long hard think about what has led you down that alley.

  44. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 4:45 pm
    What are the odds?
    Registered Republican fires shot at Trump?
    A million to one?
    ==============================

    With about 36 million registered Republican voters. Trump is in big trouble if your odds are true.

  45. Wat Tyler @ #390 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 4:53 pm

    To wit, the last time there was an attempted assassination of a US President, that of Reagan in 1981, the motivation of the shooter wasn’t anything political. He was mentally ill and developed an erotomanic obsession with Jodie Foster (after seeing her in Taxi Driver – which she was only ) and believed killing the President would impress her.

    There was a plot to kill Joe Biden last year.
    https://apnews.com/article/sai-varshith-kandula-white-house-truck-crash-88971b56fdfb93af0e2c984cd724a441

  46. Sprocket you were 100% right. As evidenced by Poll Bludger’s experts, who are 100% wrong!

    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:40 am
    I would hazard a guess that 99% of what is being ‘reported’ on social media at the moment is bullshit

    Badthinker says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 8:50 am
    Some left wing fruitcake has tried to assassinate President Trump?

    Pied piper says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:33 am
    Surprise surprise it was when Trump was talking about illegal immigration that the shots ran out.
    The sickness of the global left.

    Badthinker says:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 9:36 am
    We know that Antifa are responsible.
    they’ve just killed an innocent person at a political rally.

  47. Ray (UK) @ #392 Sunday, July 14th, 2024 – 4:55 pm

    ‘Sunak held secret talks about Farage Red Wall deal .. that would have seen Red Wall election candidates running on a joint Tory-Reform UK ticket, The Telegraph can reveal’

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/sunak-held-secret-talks-about-farage-red-wall-deal/ar-BB1pV3ag?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=51e275272b4a432cb3c6247e3e97c1a2&ei=14&sc=shoreline

    No different to here. Liberal-National-CLP-LNP-UAP-Cory’s Conservatives-Family First-PHON
    Same-Same

    They just don’t make it too obvious.

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