Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.
UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.
Who cares? It happened and did so under Biden. Voters don’t GAF about counterfactuals.
Politics isn’t a fair game. Never has been. You can whine or you can win.
Time and tide: today is the 55th anniversary of the “One small step…”.
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Mavissays:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 9:55 pm
One for the road. The RNC ratings were a ‘diaster’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imqwRNgYujA
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In this video, after 13 minutes Trump in one of he clips says:
“Kidney has special place in heart”
(I kid you not)
” Mavissays: Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 9:55 pm One for the road. The RNC ratings were a ‘diaster’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imqwRNgYujA ”
In this video, after 13 minutes Trump in one of he clips says: “Kidney has special place in heart” (I kid you not)
Steve777 says Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 9:54 pm
More importantly, would the Taliban? As part of the agreement between the Taliban and Trump administration, the Taliban had promised not to attack US troops. If the US had broken the agreement then I imagine the Taliban would retaliated.
steve davis says Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 9:21 pm
Given his apparent decline over the past two years, does anyone really believe that Biden would last four more years? He moves like a very old man.
I doubt either Biden or Trump would last four years, unless their administration hides them. But, Biden looks a lot more than three years older than Trump. Trump may be declining mentally, but he actually appears to be in better physical health than when he left the Presidency in 2021.
Elsewhere it’s been reported that the RNC ratings weren’t great. I think Trump is a weak candidate. There are still many who remember Jan 6th and are not happy about the overturning of Roe v Wade. However, you need to give them a viable alternative. Otherwise you won’t get enough out to outnumber Trump’s cult. Or you will get people voting Trump while holding their nose because they think Biden isn’t up to the job anymore.
Nine have a NYT article up: Biden fumes at his beach house, resentful at Obama and those trying to drive him out
Both Trump and Biden are pretty terrible candidates. The Democrats would do better with almost anyone other than Biden – a lot of people will just not turn up to vote for someone who is clearly in cognitive decline.
A reminder I still think Harris Buttigieg is the best choice if Biden steps down.
New thread.
https://apple.news/A76273bCyRii11QvNHoF5yQ, RNC/ TDJT factchecked (TGA)
Here we go again- the Liberals trying to revive “Howards Battlers” tactics for the 2025 election
The Australian
Opposition treasury spokesman Angus Taylor has said the Coalition “absolutely” plans to elicit support from blue-collar voters at the next federal election.
Speaking on Sunday, Mr Taylor’s comments came after JD Vance was chosen by former US president Donald Trump as his running mate, marking an attempt by the Republican campaign to deepen its appeal to working and middle class voters across the rust-belt swing states likely to decide November’s presidential election.
“[JD Vance’s] nomination as the vice presidential candidate is all about reviving the American dream and I don’t think our dream here is that different,” Mr Taylor told Sky News.
“It is about being able to get ahead, being able to come from nothing, and to be able to create opportunities from life. It shows you the power of personal responsibility. And the power of someone who wants to really have a go.
“That’s what we believe in is the Liberal Party here in Australia.”
Mr Taylor said the Coalition was “absolutely focused” on helping Australians to “get ahead”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/fight-win-donald-trump-holds-first-rally-after-shooting/live-coverage/afb173cf4477ac4bf516aa461daa64bf#151476.
Reminds me of Scomo with his “if you have a go you will get a go” under the Liberal Party – the party for the working classes apparently. We saw how well that rebranding went in 2022. Keep dreaming Angus, one day you’ll beleive what you are saying.
And from today’s RMR: “If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Labor Party maintaining a small edge on 50.5% (up 1.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Both major parties lost support this week highlighting the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result with nearly a third of the electorate not voting for either of the major parties. Either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government based on these results.
The Coalition primary vote decreased by 2% to 37.5% while ALP primary support was down 1% to only 30.5%. In addition, support for the Greens was unchanged at 13%.
It was smaller parties and independents that gained support. Support for One Nation increased 1.5% to 6.5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased 1% to 8.5%.”