The Age reports Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read on Victorian state voting intention finds no respite for Labor after a plunge last time, their primary vote down a point to 27% with the Coalition steady on 37% and the Greens up two to 15%, suggesting a two-party preferred result of around 50-50. Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto as preferred premier has narrowed from 31-26 to 31-28. Further questions find 57% supporting and 22% opposing the government’s housing targets and 28% supporting and 57% opposing raising the age of criminal responsibility. The poll combines results from Resolve Strategic’s last two monthly polls, with a sample of 1000.
Jacinta Allan does not cut through and never will and her deputy never will either. She should scrap the rail project and go with policies which will eash Labor’s problems in Victoria. Labor in Victoria is in deep strife.
This polling looks about right for a 10 year old government and Victoria has a habit of swinging against governments. Since Dick Hamer scored swings in 1973 and 1976 only Bracks in 2002 and Andrews in 2018 had TPP swings to them but another curious thing about Victoria is it’s habit of returning governments but swinging against it before dumping them at the next election.
Hamer had swing against in 79 – labor won 82
Cain had swings against in 85 and 88 – liberals won 92
Kennett had swing against in 96 – labor won 99
Bracks had swing against in 06 – liberals won 10
Andrews had swing against in 22 – ??????
Victorians have now seen enough of Jacinta Allan to make an informed opinion.
We don’t like her.
I’ll believe these numbers only if the next Redbridge poll is similar.
Even so, the 2pp would only be 50-50. Probably not enough for Pesutto to win the 17 seats needed for majority government, and since it looks like the crossbench would be dominated by Greens (they’ll probably win 3-4 more seats if they really do get 15% of the vote), looking like it’ll be a minority Labor government from 2026-30.
Also the next election is over 2 years away, so LNP fans will have to wait and seethe for quite a while longer.
Are you the King Taylormade? Using the royal plural “Victorians have now seen enough of Jacinta Allan to make an informed opinion. We don’t like her.”
Allan got handed a difficult situation given the state of the Budget, but hasn’t really put a foot right since she started.
She’s rapidly backed away from every bit of unfinished business on social policy Andrews left behind at the same time as handing down a budget with cuts so savage it’s reminiscent of a Kennett, Abbott or Newman Liberal budget that were seen to disproportionately target health – and failing to even cut down the debt for having done that.
I honestly think choosing Allan was a catastrophic mistake, and probably the worst political decision Andrews ever made in backing her as his successor. I can’t think of a single popular decision she’s made yet, and she doesn’t have the political skills to put a human face on tough times in the way that Andrews could, and Hennessy or Merlino could have plausibly continued with. The loss of most of the surviving very talented Andrews ministers to retirement around 2022 has worsened the problem, because Pallas is a fool with terrible political instincts and Carroll as the new great hope of the right has about a sixth of the charisma/political skills Merlino had.
I think you’d be hard-pressed to find too many successive leaders in recent memory where there’s such different attitudes towards them – there an awful lot of people who had a lot of time for Andrews and really don’t like Allan.
The state Liberals are utterly cooked, but all Allan is looking like having is fear campaigns about the Liberals’ social views – because she won’t have any of her own achievements to point to (beyond finishing off Andrews’ infrastructure projects like the Metro Tunnel), and you can’t even run fear campaigns against the Liberals on the economy. The 2026 Victorian election have been hard for Labor to lose, given Andrews’ former popularity and the ongoing dysfunction of the state Liberals – but Allan is on track to manage it.
I know I’ve said this a few times, but the loss of Hennessy to retirement was an absolute catastrophe for Labor – and, in turn, given how well Allan is doing, the state.
@Rebecca at 8:18pm
Thank you for that more detailed, neutral post about Victorian politics as it stands. You’ve also said things that I agree with, such as that Tim Pallas should really bow out of the role as Treasurer as soon as possible. I’m not sure who, but surely there’s someone better than him in the parliament, and he’s had his fair share of nearly 10 years.
As Vic is stuck with the stupid upper house preferencing system, whoever wins the next election will have to deal with a real mixed bag of an upper house.
And the Greens will not get the number of seats their vote share suggests they should.
Those 2022 resignations really gutted the ministry in one hit: Hennessy, Merlino, Neville, Pulford – even Foley and Pakula were talented compared to a lot of the remainders. Even Wynne, who was responsible in his portfolios for basically everything the Andrews government ever did that I disagreed with and who I never liked as a result, was a loss by comparison.
Most of the high-profile members of Cabinet who are left now are in the upper house, and of the lower house ministers the only person that I’ve heard of/heard good things about/have a positive impression of is Gabrielle Williams and Lily D’Ambrosio, and Williams seemed to be on the outs with Andrews and D’Ambrosio’s not exactly a heavy-hitter in the way any of the above were.
The recent turnover has been so large that I barely know who half the state Labor caucus is these days, which is incredibly unusual for a politics obsessive like me – of the names I do know, they’re mostly a) people like Kat Theophanous who have a good rep as constituent MPs and seem likable but I’ve never heard talked about as ministerial prospects, or b) people I’ve heard of from the union movement in their pre-politics careers like Hilakari and Gregorovitch.
It doesn’t exactly give Allan a lot to work with, even given my criticism above of a lot of her decisions.
@SolarPunk at 8:42pm
I agree, group voting tickets should have been abolished ages ago for Victorian upper house voting and I deplore the fact that they’re still a factor for 2026.
As for the Greens, well, the same can be said of the Victorian Nationals. The Nats get 4.7% of the vote, they get 9 seats. The Greens get 11.5% of the vote, they get 4 seats. As long as it remains a single-member electoral system, they’ll just have to adapt to it. And for the most part, it looks like they are. They’ll win at least 4 more seats assuming the swing in the polls from Labor to Greens is correct in 2026.
I’m honestly a little bit conflicted with GTV in Vic.
On one hand, it’s an amoral and undemocratic electoral system that on principle needs to be tossed out, and it really should’ve been abolished when the feds did it.
On the other, it’s proven alright for electing exactly the kind of politicians I like – ordinary, sensible people who want to see the right policy decisions made rather than engaging in partisan wankery, like Ettershank and Payne from Legalise Cannabis and Purcell from the AJP (even though I don’t particularly care about either party’s main issue). I do think parliament is better for having them there, even if the means of how they got there is questionable (and in the case of Purcell, perennially hilarious).
The election is 2026 – and no-one is thinking about an election.
The polling is interesting but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge.
Thank you for the data.
If the ALP want any chance at the next election they need to wake up to themselves and scrap the suburban rail loop. It has become a lighting rod for all of the states economic problems.
@jacobin at 9:21pm
The big thing here is that the Victorian LNP is still seething to this day that Labor cancelled their East-West Link project in 2014, even though they broke conventions in signing off contracts days before that election so a cancellation would cost billions, and they’ve been screeching about that ever since.
So in exchange for that, Victorian Labor is likely determined to develop the Suburban Rail Loop as far as possible so that the only way it can be stopped is if the Coalition brings forth ridiculous policy promises such as mothballing the entire thing if they win in 2026, or if they’re particularly insane, actively demolish it.
The Greens might not make the gains this poll suggests. There are two or three seats which look certainties on paper, but which won’t be if the Liberals reverse their decision to preference the Greens ahead of Labor. Preston and Pascoe Vale spring to mind. Even Northcote could be saved for Labor if the Liberals change their preferences.
The Libs will preference the Greens ahead of Labor (as things currently stand). The Coalition need Labor to lose seats to the right and the left to have any hope of forming government. It will be an interesting campaign. Labor may well be on the nose by then – It will have been 12 long years and 24 out of 28. This does not mean people will fall lovingly into the arms of the Vic Libs who have been completely ensnared by Christian Nationalist types. Vic is not South Gilead.
Kirsdark – The Nats only ran in 10 seats and won 9 so it is a good return and in at least three of those they were up against a Liberal as well. The Greens ran in 88 – spread thin. The Nats got only 4.73% and got 9 seats is just a specious argument. Do you complain that Labor got 37% of the vote and won 65% of the seats?
The rail loop is sucking the life out of everything else. The outlook in the buildings sector is grim as previously committed school and hospital projects have been cancelled and announced projects get put on hold at early planning stages.
AnteMeridian: Pascoe Vale is already probably saved for Labor because of the Greens’ inexplicable decision not to make it a target seat, unless they again preselect the local mayor and she again outperforms without party support.
I have huge doubt that there will be a repeat of Preston in 2026 – there were large single-issue swings to Greens and the independent councillor due to Labor repeatedly kicking themselves in the shins over Preston Market, and Nathan Lambert has very wisely seen Labor put that issue to bed. If I recall rightly, it is also not a Greens target seat – probably more sensibly in that case.
If Northcote gets saved for Labor, it’ll be because Kat Theophanous is the right kind of Labor MP for a Greens target seat and does a decent job. My bet would be that she’s gone though.
I also wouldn’t rule out Katie Hall in Footscray pulling through despite it being a target seat and close-run last time – she works hard and if the Greens preselect the same candidate who ran dead last time (who is currently running for them for council), Hall might just scrape over the line.
I’d be a bit surprised if the Libs preferenced the Greens. The Liberal right would rather die – they’re not pragmatic enough to do it even if would be in their electoral interests to do so.
Blackburnpseph @ #17 Thursday, July 18th, 2024 – 10:47 pm
No, I don’t complain about either of those results. Namely because the Country/Nationals have been narrowing their target seats since 1920 and have optimised the seats they win from what they can. And the Greens are currently doing the same to optimise their votes to actually win seats.
As for the Labor part of the pendulum, they’re also doing what they can with preferential votes. Of course the major part is the Greens to Labor preferential flows, since the Greens are not as vicious as the 1950-1970’s DLP were in their preferential flows in that they simply wanted to make Labor lose so badly that they would have no choice but to bend the knee to them. But that has yet to happen with modern Greens-Labor preferential flows, where roughly 80% of Green votes preference Labor above Coalition, as opposed to the average 1960-70 state election where roughly 90% of DLP votes preferenced Liberals above Labor.
So in this case in the 2026 election, it remains to be seen how preferences flow. But at the moment, it seems that Greens votes will flow roughly 80-20 toward Labor, and that will probably be reciprocated in seats like Prahran, so it will be hard for the Liberal-National Coalition to win a majority. Of course they could, like they did in 2010, but that’s currently unlikely in my opinion.
The nats are rolled gold losers been in opposition 24of 28 years soon.
Libs listened too much to Nationals need a Kennett type
VIC premier is a dud.
Victoria classic example of a public liability hiring not on talent but on sexuality,race,sex etc.
Covid revealed this truth and its cost will end up 100 billion.
Early days in Victoria, much water to go under the bridge yet. The Liberals have yet to come with and communicate a sound policy. Plus the Deeming issue is about to hit the headlines again and Pesutto‘s leadership further undermined. Lastly the more control the religious conservatives get of the Liberal Party, which seems highly likely their electoral appeal drops like a lead balloon.
I’ve said on some other pages that I think 2023-24 was especially bad for Victorian Labor. And while a lot of the issues from 2023-24 will also persist right up to the 2026 election, it’s hard to imagine that 2025-26 will be worse for them.
2023-24 had: cancellation of Games, resignation of dominant leader, probably the worst budget they have ever handed down in recent memory (2024), peak disruption with all their ‘Big Build’ projects in progress at the same time, delay of Airport Rail, and now the CFMEU scandal, all the while no projects other than continued level crossing removals have been completed.
Throughout this period, even this new poll shows that the Liberals have only improved their polling by 2%. In 2PP terms, probably closer to 4-5%, but even that would only net them about 6-7 of the 17 seats they require to form government.
2025-26 are unlikely to be easier than 2023-24 for the Liberals to gain ground. It is at least going to see the completion of two of the largest projects: Metro Tunnel & West Gate Tunnel. They will be the first big ‘good news’ stories of the entire term, and the inner-city will have most of its construction packed up and look brand new, not to mention those costs coming off the books making the ‘forecast’ surplus for 2026-27 become more of a reality.
I expect the 2025 & 2026 budgets will be more “election friendly” and there have already been reports that Labor actually have a war-chest of hidden funds waiting for the next election. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a deliberate move to frontload the harsh budgets to 2023-24 and then create a narrative of turning things around in 2025-26. If there’s one thing Victorian Labor are, it’s savvy political operators.
The politically engaged such as those on here might see right through it, but the average voter may not.
I expect that while there’s no way Labor will repeat its success of 2022, their position throughout 2025-26 will at least improve compared to 2024 as they move into election mode. They will cop a significant primary vote swing but probably only a small 2PP swing, lose some seats to the Liberals (but not nearly enough for the Liberals to win) as well as 2-3 to the Greens.
Labor will end up with under 48 seats, the Greens 6-7, the Nationals 9, and the Liberals will improve from 19 to >25. That’s my prediction. Nowhere close to the Liberals actually forming government.
Allen does seem to be struggling a bit at the moment.
The CFMEU story is causing bleeding for the Labor Party but it is like cutting out a cancerous growth; it will hurt but in the long run it’ll do the party some good.
The hospital stuff up has been a self-inflected wound, especially for a party that is supposed to be good on services.
But the election is 2 years away. The opposition is going to need a swing of 8% to win; Big but not unheard of. Labor doesn’t want to be in a position where they are governing with the support of the Greens which will happen with a swing much smaller than that.
The media in Victoria is very anti-Labor; it was very anti-Andrews but that seems to have shifted to being the whole government now. The press pack has such a negative vibe about everything in the state as if the sky is falling as opposed to being caught in the rain.
The opposition seems to be a little bit more stable but I doubt that anyone looks at Pesutto and says that he is premier material. But they seriously short on talent, the alternatives are from the Crazy Land side of the party. If they go down that path, they will still be unelectable, even if Allen is caught getting brown paper bags of cash.
I don’t know why people think the SRL is in any danger.
The contracts signed, the TBMs will be in the ground and half way there by the next election, and what are the Libs going to say? Cancel it half built? Minns didn’t when presented with the same thing.
Very misunderstood project. When Melbourne has 8 million people, which it will, you won’t be able to move on Eastern Suburban roads. The 30 minutes from Box Hill to Cheltenham will be the only way you will get from Box Hill to Cheltenham.
If they are short a quid, cancel some of the remaining level crossings. They’ve done so many now, they’ve proven the point, and recovering an unspent billion or 2 could go into health or social programs.
radicallyrethinkingrailways @ #25 Friday, July 19th, 2024 – 2:19 pm
Pesutto announced in January that he plans to mothball the project after the current contracts have been completed if he wins in 2026.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/pesutto-vows-to-pause-and-review-suburban-rail-loop-20240128-p5f0l8.html
Kirsdarkesays
So all Allan needs to do is get all the contracts for Stage 1 underway, and then so much of it would be done by Nov 2026 that it would look ridiculous not to finish.
And note the threats Minns was making. Not carried out. Predictably.
And note the Prosciutto gives himself the out “if its impact is too significant…” which is subjective.
And if Labor scrapes in at November 2026, then Nov 2030 means all remaining contracts will be completed and the line all but done.
I think Victoria has some quite serious economic structural issues, and we don’t know if we face booms or busts, but if Melbourne has 8 million people then it won’t be poorer in absolute numbers and can afford the line.
@Radicallyrethinkingrailways at 3:38pm
Well, I suppose we’ll see what happens. The LNP are itching for revenge over the East-West Link project that Labor cancelled and may be so blinded as to try to do the same for the Suburban Rail Loop. But I recall that senior shadow cabinet members thought it was crazy to do that to a project so far developed, so Pesutto probably won’t be able to stop the Cheltenham-Box Hill stage if they win in 2026, given how tenuous his leadership position is.
Key difference:
East-West Link wasn’t started, they’d just pushed some money around. Scrapping it only cost money because of the mates deals with the contracts – there was no actual work on the ground to be stranded.
SRL will be actually under construction.
Realistically, the point’s moot as it’s not likely for Pesutto to win in 2026 anyway though.
Speaking of railways, I’m in awe at just how developed the level crossing removal project has been so far. Like this video showing how the Frankston-Moorabbin section of the line has developed as of last month.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jI6B0XhcFQg
And now it seems the Lilydale line is officially free of all level crossings.
https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/level-crossing-removal-project/gone-for-good-lilydale-line-level-crossing-free
Surely people in that area will notice the difference.
Plus the Deeming issue is about to hit the headlines again and Pesutto‘s leadership further undermined.
The more publicity the Deeming issue gets, the more it looks like a wedge to keep Labor in power.
Pesutto has been consistent, if he maintains his line, he’s the next Liberal Premier.
There’ll be 1 more Labor Premier before that, at least.
‘The more publicity the Deeming issue gets, the more it looks like a wedge to keep Labor in power.
Pesutto has been consistent, if he maintains his line, he’s the next Liberal Premier’.
A big part of his party’s membership base are behind Deeming and are furious with Pesutto, and Liberals previously have destroyed their own and their election chances if it goes against their personal views. He might be consistent and deserves respect for his determination, but his strongest supporters are either has beens or current low flyers. The talent pool in his team is very unimpressive. Plus the factions in the Victorian branch are more divided than ever, and the religious nutters won’t give up without burning down the house.
‘The more publicity the Deeming issue gets, the more it looks like a wedge to keep Labor in power.
Pesutto has been consistent, if he maintains his line, he’s the next Liberal Premier’.
A big part of his party’s membership base are behind Deeming and are furious with Pesutto, and Liberals previously have destroyed their own and their election chances if it goes against their personal views. He might be consistent and deserves respect for his determination, but his strongest supporters are either has beens or current low flyers. The talent pool in his team is very unimpressive. Plus the factions in the Victorian branch are more divided than ever, and the religious nutters won’t give up without burning down the house.
Antony @ #32 Friday, July 19th, 2024 – 8:06 pm
That’s right, just saying the name “Moira Deeming” in a room where there’s at least 3 Victorian Liberals and there’s soon to be a fight shortly after.
Both sides hate each other and want ultimate victory. Trouble is, one side wants to go full Trumpist culture war and the other side wants to keep it moderate because Trumpist culture wars don’t seem to be popular in Victoria. On the other hand, argh, they just hate trans people so much that they’re prepared to torpedo the whole party just to get the chance to hurt them.
Enjoy reading your comments Rebecca. The lack of talent seems a pox on all houses at the moment, and not a lot of encouragement for the best and brightest to put their hand up to spend multiple terms on the backbench watching dunces trying to learn to fly.
Wonder if you could give your thoughts on Libs preferencing Greens over Labor? Would it make any difference to the eventual outcome of who gets a majority in the lower house? Are the Libs cunning enough to see the value in a possible minority Labor gov having to spend 4 years in bed with the Greens? Or would a preference deal push a fractured party over the edge?
TropicalWonderland @ #35 Friday, July 19th, 2024 – 8:25 pm
Not Rebecca, but I can tell you from history that in the 2010 Victorian state election, Ted Baillieu’s decision to preference the Greens last in all seats turned out to be something of a decisive winning action.
Obviously it was down to each individual voter to go by the How To Vote cards, but in 2010, it seemed to be such a popular move among Coalition voters that they voted him in as Premier, even so narrowly as it was 45-43.
If John Pesutto starts going around asking Liberal voters to preference Greens over Labor, that goes against the logic of the one election they won outright in the past 30 years.
I would take Resolve with a grain of salt. They have over corrected their pro ALP bias. They are untested at an election with new methodology. Their methodology is not transparent and they have bombed the referendum polling.
A lot of very confident takes on this forum based on an untested polling.
If the Victorian public actually realises that the Victorian Liberal party has been effectively taken over by religious fundamentalist, they will never win enough seats to form Government.
I predict a raft of Teal like independents popping up in socially progressive Liberal or marginal Labor seats soon – maybe not next election but the one after. We may see a Labor / Teal Gov in Vic before we see a LNP govt.
Personally, I don’t want the religious nutbags anywhere near the levers of power. And if they do get in – one term due to all the hate they will generate.
I can’t see the Cheltenham-Box Hill stage of the SRL getting cancelled by the time the election is called, but I can absolutely believe that the Libs would junk the rest of it and leave it as a bit of a white elephant.
I’m not sure even Labor will commit to SRL North (which runs almost entirely through safe Labor seats) when SRL East is done, and SRL West is so obviously barebones that it’s unlikely to win them many fans in the actually-weakening-for-Labor west.
@Rebecca,
SRL West basically already exists – it’s just going to be an electrification of the section they build a few years ago from Deer Park to Geelong line. As it’s all above ground, there isn’t much to it. Only real new track that it’s likely to include is a link to Werribee station.
Something plenty of people don’t understand is that the SRL realistically is an urban renewal project as much as (or more than) a transport project. Property developers are going to make a lot of money out of it. The Libs might make a lot of noise, but they wouldn’t cancel it.
There is some stupidity in the current plans for SLR in the north. The plans currently have the route going to Fawkner because there is a lot government lane there (however most of it is
Cemetery land) but there are very few people in the area. But it will be able to hook into the Airport link which will make more sense.
However, If the Liberals go to the election to cancel the SLR, Labor will be able to point out it will just be more delaying of infrastructure. Like how the Melbourne Metro tunnel was delayed 5 years by 4 years of LNP government planning to send it out to Fishermans Bend.
Expat: Honestly, if they build SRL North and then give the west…an electrification of the regional rail link without so much as new train stations (if they’re still not built independently within the next decade or so), I can see it sparking a seat-losing backlash in the West during the construction of SRL North.
There is a lot of frustration in the RRL seats about a terrible lack of infastructure (including promised infrastructure that never eventuated) that hasn’t translated into swings yet, and there’s a lot of frustration in the Sunbury line seats that’s already started to. If SRL North actually happens, SRL West is going to be an electoral liability for the government unless it’s reformed.
Anyone who thinks the Libs are going to suddenly keep going with the SRL (beyond Box Hill-Cheltenham due to the advanced stage by the time of the election and it running through key marginal seats) because of the property development gains is kidding themselves. They fundamentally hate it on principle for several reasons.
There are 2 more stations pencilled-in to be built on the RRL in the coming years, but that won’t be part of SRL West.
None of this is a secret though – what did you think the SRL West was?
Bear in mind also – the SRL North won’t start for another 10-15-20 years, if ever. You’re right that it might never get built, but either way, a lot will happen in state politics before any of that is important.
The next big project (concurrent to SRL East), would be MM2, after MM1 opens next year.
Expat: I’m the one who brought up how barebones SRL West was as a project in the first place.
I highly doubt Melbourne Metro 2 will ever get built, unless a Liberal government builds it as a sop to developer mates as they were talking about doing last time around.
Melbourne Metro was popular because it brought heavy rail to Parkville and the Domain Interchange for the first time, while building network capacity to address service deficiencies on the Sunbury and Cranbourne/Pakenham lines, both of which cut through to underserved outer suburban areas sorely needing a train service upgrade.
Melbourne Metro 2 goes nowhere new apart from providing a gold-plated transport solution for yet to be built apartments in Fisherman’s Bend at taxpayer expense, at the expense of parts of Melbourne in far more desperate need of public transport infrastructure. It’s an inner-city transport policy wonk’s project, and not only can I not see it having any appeal at all outside of the federal seat of Melbourne, I can actively see it sparking a backlash in the outer suburbs against any government responsible for pushing it.