The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.
Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.
The sky is not falling. It is just raining.
Yet another 51-49 Newspoll. I believe John Howard’s government endured quite a lot of these in his 11 years in power, yet he succeeded in all that time without wetting the bed nonetheless.
WB: Newspoll was 51:49 to Labor three weeks ago. 50:50 the poll prior.
EDIT: same issue with the primaries. I think the graphs weren’t updated when they ‘went to press’.
The voters are always right as they were when they voted for the Nazi party in Germany.
Yes, I think I might have been going off a chart in The Australian that hadn’t updated yet. All good now, I hope.
When you take into account the Teal and Green seats, the Liberals need to get to around 52/48 2pp to actually form government. I can’t see that happening. Minority government remains a distinct risk.
That being said, the other issues polling shows that Labor’s cabinet needs a refresh. Some portfolios have not been handled well. It is rare for Cabinets to go unchanged for so long.
As for the leadership ratings, I look forward to discussion of a potential challenge from Price on Dutton 😀
Better PM Lead narrows as Dutton up to 39.
Edit: sorted! 🙂
I notice Sussan Ley rates highly.
BSA, you claimed that the greens didn’t get much attention in the media, and if they became major players this would change and the media would rip into them.
I would point out the media rips into them already, hell they were being compared to Hitler not a month ago…
So yeh, don’t try and cry I misrepresented you while your comments still fresh.
Also not sure why there’s so much cheering… one poll has Labor barely moving, another poll shows them slipping, and the pattern remains…
Mavis says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:44 pm
Newspoll has come to the rescue. I still think a spring wedding should be on the cards.
=============================================
From previous thread…
Are you suggesting an election this spring Mavis? Howdy by the way.
Boer will take consolation from these figures, especially the ALP primary up.
Very, very interesting the polls at the moment. No evidence of poll herding. To be frank, the polls are all over the place. I seek solace in bludgertrack.
Newspoll is obviously the Boss, but I do like Morgan (because of their sample) and YouGov as they are internationally renowned.
Lordbain says:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 10:07 pm
BSA, you claimed that the greens didn’t get much attention in the media, and if they became major players this would change and the media would rip into them.
I would point out the media rips into them already, hell they were being compared to Hitler not a month ago…
So yeh, don’t try and cry I misrepresented you while your comments still fresh.
Also not sure why there’s so much cheering… one poll has Labor barely moving, another poll shows them slipping, and the pattern remains…
______
The only cheering I saw was between the two polls 😉
The most interesting thing for me was the gender split on the preferred leader question, don’t know response:
Whom would you prefer as leader of the Federal Labor Party?
Don’t Know – Male: 28, Female: 41
Whom would you prefer as leader of the Federal Coalition?
Don’t Know – Male: 33, Female: 45
Well, that was rather boring.
It’s a better poll than Labor probably expected especially on PV but it doesn’t change the fact that Labor is struggling to be seen as getting close to living up to what it promised or suggested before being elected. It’s hard to put forward a popular reelection plan when you’ve barely achieved anything in government.
Mavis says Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:28 pm
That’s actually an advert from her 2020 campaign. If she was making it now I’m sure it would mention Jan 6 and him being a convicted felon. Maybe she could throw something in about him being Putin’s lapdog.
nadia88:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 10:10 pm
[‘Are you suggesting an election this spring Mavis? Howdy by the way.’]
Hi nadia. Yes. I think when Albo marries Jodie, his personal metrics will improve, as will Labor’s PV, by around 0.5 to 1%. And when they take their vows Jodie will probably move from Sydney to Canberra thereby making their domestic arrangements more settled. Thanks for the Resolve poll. I’m off.
Jacinta Price would be doing well to get the Liberal leadership. Firstly, she is a senator and secondly she is a CLP member. Anyway, it is funny that the person rank second to Dutton can’t even take his job.
Also I noticed there is a 10% difference between Freshwater’s polling for Albo Approval and Dutton’s disapproval to Newspoll. That is outside of any margin of error stuff, so it suggests a polling pool issue or a question issue.
bc:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 10:24 pm
[‘That’s actually an advert from her 2020 campaign. If she was making it now I’m sure it would mention Jan 6 and him being a convicted felon. Maybe she could throw something in about him being Putin’s lapdog.’]
Thanks, my mistake. I take back my comment that Biden may resign tomorrow.
Socrates @ 10.06
Actually, if you assume that the crossbenchers will all hold their seats, and ignore any redistribution effects, the coalition would need a uniform swing of 6.3% in the remaining seats to get a majority. This Newspoll is showing a two-party preferred swing to the coalition of just 1.1%
Of course, the coalition might pick up some of the cross-bench seats. But their best chance of doing that would come if the ALP outpolled the incumbent cross-bencher. That’s actually more likely if the ALP primary vote is rising, but if this latest poll is correct, it’s hardly changed since the 2022 election.
See https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-post-federal-election-pendulum/
Big disappointment for the <30% crew, who have noticeably parked that argument and gone on other avenues of analysis.
Hoping is one thing, reality is another.
Try hard as you can, there is no clear path for a LNP government in 2025!
Chalmers would have to be disappointed with the results of the leadership question.
Dont think anyone will be challenging Albo either.
LB
You are doing exactly what you accuse Labor partisans of doing/being. Being super partisan.
As I recall the Newspoll was 51-49 to Labor from the start of 2019 right up to the election. Too close for comfort.
“Jacinta Price would be doing well to get the Liberal leadership. Firstly, she is a senator and secondly she is a CLP member. Anyway, it is funny that the person rank second to Dutton can’t even take his job.”
Shows the punters know fuck all about how politics work.
BK et al. may be interested in this research (if they aren’t already aware of it).
Innovative roots ripping process to protect Australia’s arid woodlands
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yufEXo7ykP8
Here’s the latest from Team Dump Biden in the very serious New York Times:
“The problem in the real world is that there isn’t a Democrat who is polling significantly better than Mr. Biden. And quitting, as heroic as it may be in this case, doesn’t really put a lump in our throats.
“But there’s something the Democrats can do that would not just put a lump in people’s throats with its appeal to stop-Donald-Trump-at-all-costs unity, but with its originality and sense of sacrifice. So here’s my pitch to the writers’ room: The Democratic Party should pick a Republican.
“At their convention next month, the Democrats should nominate Mitt Romney.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/opinion/biden-west-wing-aaron-sorkin.html
Been There, the LNP under Dutton shouldn’t even be in the picture 51-49 is hardly something to rejoice about and it wouldn’t take much for the LNP to find themselves in an election winning position.
I just note in passing that, based upon sample size, both polls have a margin of error close to 3%.
Who is rejoicing mj?
Noticeably not the now silent < 30% percenters.
LNP will never find themselves in a winning position leading up to the election, regardless of the leader, because basically including and outside of the current holder of the position, they have nothing.
I hope you’re right but Labor are not governing in a way that makes it a foregone conclusion. They are trying to govern for everyone but doing nothing and sitting there like lame ducks.
Happy enough to see Labor at 51_49 given the poor performance perception in recent weeks. The CFMEU mess is yet to play out but I see no high pact on either side of the fence ,not yet anyway
. When or if Newspoll puts out a 52-48 Coalition lead poll Labor will have something to worry about re slipping beyond a 73-74 seat minority govt in the election booth at worst. Until then, nothing to see here really beyond Labor losing 2 seats in NSW and 1 in Qld taking the last 4-5 Newspolls into account. That’s my reading of it anyway so we can get back to sniping other parties policy and reviewing history from different often biased corners. Ding, ding.
I see a win in the climate wars in this polling. In domestic politics Australia has been subject to breathless media reports highlighting local concerns over planning on the rollout of the renewable energy plan and conflating that to mean a rejection of the rollout of renewables. This polling shows so far that has not worked to changing voters views. So far.
Unless you are the LNP campaigning against renewables I see that as a win
Typically GTS partisan response. No surprises he has gone mute beyond a short whinge. No Palestinian bump up for the Greens apparent. Shame on those pollsters.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:56 pm
[So in summary minority govt is on the cards – its just how much of a minority govt that is in question. Basically about a 1.5% swing on Newspoll and worse under the other polls. Labor primary 33 going up 1 was a surprise in Newspoll.]
Just a negroni or two in it !
Interesting.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/19/business/economy/biden-rent-cap-proposal.html
I want to thank the Greens for trashing any chance of winning Macnamara, ensuring the re-election of Teals in Goldstein and Wentworth, keeping Kingsford Smith safely in Labor hands and, best of all, wedgying themselves in Wills- the grand prize they have gone mad trying to turn Green. A bonus would be if the Greens coughed up seats they won in 2022 by going too far on a particular issue and doubling down when push came to shove. Dumb politics backed by dumber elections strategists that didn’t see The Muslim Vote coming until they were flipping the bird at the Greens too. Bandt let 2022 go to his numpty head. Keep up the good work Adam- please.
I’ve posted a thread for discussion of Biden’s withdrawal:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/22/joe-biden-withdraws/
Well done William. On the ball as usual.
goll says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 12:16 am
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:56 pm
[So in summary minority govt is on the cards – its just how much of a minority govt that is in question. Basically about a 1.5% swing on Newspoll and worse under the other polls. Labor primary 33 going up 1 was a surprise in Newspoll.]
Just a negroni or two in it !
_________
A slight contrast to what Dr Kevin Bonham said on Twitter “No force on earth will make the media shut up about impending minority government but in my model off this Newspoll Labor wins a median 76.3 seats.”
Newspoll has dictate , federal liberal party leadership, Abbott and Turnbull
After all the propaganda attacks on Labor ,The federal lib/nats combined primary vote still cannot get into 40% or over ,
If the federal lib/nats combined primary vote cannot be consistently 40% or over from next month
Peter Dutton has probably got 3 or 4 newspolls to go until October , in October could see Angus Taylor as leader of the federal liberal party
goll says:
goll says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 12:16 am
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:56 pm
[So in summary minority govt is on the cards – its just how much of a minority govt that is in question. Basically about a 1.5% swing on Newspoll and worse under the other polls. Labor primary 33 going up 1 was a surprise in Newspoll.]
——————–
Tried to warn Lars Von Trier would be disappointed about Labor primary vote, wont be low as Lars Von Trier wanted
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Well, Joe Biden has pulled out of the race. A wise, but terribly late, move.
Referring to the latest Newspoll, Simon Benson concludes that there is no evidence in the polls to suggest that voters have moved decisively against the Albanese government yet. The question of leadership may determine if they ultimately do.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/newspoll-no-sign-voters-intend-to-kick-outfirstterm-labor-government/news-story/e999dccaedc2e072ed6923694861506a?amp=
Over at the AFR where a Freshwater poll has just dropped, Phil Coorey says the Coalition has inched ahead in the popular vote for the first time since the federal election. The Coalition could come within striking distance of minority government.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-overtakes-labor-in-popular-vote-20240721-p5jv8y
Don’t fall for the bogeyman theory of our troubled major constructions industry: its union has gone rogue, been infiltrated by criminal elements, and must be cleaned out, so life can return to normal. There’s much more to it than that, writes Ross Gittins whose guess is that the construction industry oligopoly finds it quite convenient to have a union that goes around bullying smaller businesses. Why? Because what they’re doing is policing the industry’s “barriers to entry”. An interesting read.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/construction-industry-a-honeypot-that-capital-and-labour-fight-over-20240721-p5jvai.html
The CFMEU’s conduct has been known about for the better part of a decade and could have been stopped in 2019, but wasn’t. Politics stopped it. Pauline Hanson stopped it, argues Rex Patrick.
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-ensuring-integrity-bill-that-ensured-the-cmfeu-rorts-continued/
A thorough clean-out of John Setka’s cronies – the corrupt, the violent and all underworld figures – is needed, declares the SMH editorial. It says an independent administrator who can root out the seeds of corruption and transform the CFMEU into a democratically run union with good governance, proper checks and balances and strict anti-corruption rules is needed. If carried out effectively, these efforts will shape the future of the construction union and broader labour movement for the better.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/devil-will-be-in-the-detail-on-labor-s-cfmeu-response-20240721-p5jvae.html
Farmer united community groups from each area nominated for a nuclear plant will campaign together against the Coalition’s plans. Together, they’ve formed an alliance representing seven communities to fight against the proposal, reminiscent of the independent Voices movement that sent Cathy McGowan to federal parliament in 2013 and has since been replicated across the country. Bianca Hall and Mike Foley tell us that already, two people are preparing to nominate as independent candidates to take the fight to the next election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/can-the-voices-model-help-communities-fight-off-nuclear-reactors-20240716-p5ju4o.html
State governments have reaped billions from stamp duty on insurance, and the industry’s peak body says it’s time for states to put that money back into mitigating natural disasters, reports Rachel Clun.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-forgotten-tax-adding-billions-to-the-country-s-insurance-premiums-20240711-p5jsy1.html
Child sexual exploitation, drug trafficking and large-scale tax fraud threats are on the rise, says a damning report from AUSTRAC. Michael West reports on the epic 17-year failure to deliver money-laundering reforms whose effect is to lock Australians out of affordable property.
https://michaelwest.com.au/austrac-confirms-australia-is-a-haven-for-white-collar-criminals/
Police in Victoria are investigating privately run bail and rehabilitation services after claims underworld figures and violent criminals are gaming the system to win release. The expensive services promise to monitor the movements of accused offenders while on bail and provide mental health or drug rehabilitation services.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/crime-figures-exploiting-bail-system-with-claims-of-fake-trackers-perjury-and-weapons-offences-20240310-p5fb70.html
Grandparents being exploited, neglected or financially coerced will be the target of a new education campaign to eliminate abuse of older people in Australia. Paul Sakkal reports that beginning yesterday, $5 million worth of advertisements will run on television, online and at medical clinics telling older people to open up about the poor treatment they receive, including from their children and grandchildren.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-push-to-end-ugly-exploitation-of-older-australians-20240719-p5jv1d.html
With the Albanese government’s gambling ad policy still up in the air, the Financial Review has looked at who’s been hitting the corridors of power for sports betting firms.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/meet-the-lobbyists-aiming-to-keep-the-gambling-dollars-rolling-in-20240520-p5jf08
The Australia Institute says tax exemption on ‘commercial vehicles’ with no testing requirement is incentivising people to buy utes instead of EVs, reports Elias Visontay.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/22/luxury-ute-tax-loophole-emissions-reductions-evs-taxpayers
Sodium-ion batteries are set to spark a renewable energy revolution – and Australia must be ready, urges Professor Peter Newman.
https://theconversation.com/sodium-ion-batteries-are-set-to-spark-a-renewable-energy-revolution-and-australia-must-be-ready-234560
Compulsory voting in Australia is 100 years old. We should celebrate how special it makes our democracy, argues Paul Strangio.
https://theconversation.com/compulsory-voting-in-australia-is-100-years-old-we-should-celebrate-how-special-it-makes-our-democracy-234801
The Strengthening Australian Democracy report released by Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil last week provides a sophisticated diagnosis of the challenges facing democratic governance around the world. The report also offers a broad prescription of how Australia might meet those challenges, explains Professor Carolyn Holbrook who calls for action on it.
https://theconversation.com/threats-and-challenges-to-australias-democracy-are-well-outlined-in-government-report-now-for-some-action-234898
David Swan, using last week’s example, explains how precarious is the worldwide IT interconnectedness upon which we have become utterly dependent.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/how-close-are-we-to-chaos-it-turns-out-just-one-blue-screen-of-death-20240720-p5jv6t.html
China’s best swimmers are being targeted by drug testers more than any other country in the lead-up to the Paris Olympics as doping data reveals the close eye being kept on athletes who will go head-to-head with Australia’s best in the coming weeks, writes Tom decent.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/swimming/46-tests-in-52-weeks-how-china-s-swimmers-are-being-targeted-by-drug-testers-20240721-p5jv8e.html
Mark Kenny writes, “In America, a populist surge is assuming tsunami-like proportions. To Australian ears and eyes, the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee was crass and counterfeit replete with unsubtle evangelical allusions to an Earthly second coming by its flawed saviour, Donald Trump. Yet to the GOP’s MAGA devotees, these Old Testament allusions were supported by observable fact: a fabled second nomination, a second presidency and, on the eve of the convention, a resurrection. It was a miracle he survived, and yet here he was to lead them out of the woke morass of migrants and multiculturalism, transgendered toilets and befuddling pronouns.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8702063/examining-the-rise-of-right-wing-victimhood-in-modern-politics/?cs=14329
Trump’s America-first populist mash-up of right-wing nationalism and left-wing economics threatens to jeopardise US leadership of the international rules-based order that benefits Australia, says the AFR’s editorial.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/trump-s-return-is-no-cause-for-chill-in-australia-20240716-p5jtzh
Connoisseurs of political theatre can only applaud the Republicans. But Trump’s failure to acknowledge the globalisation of war threatens not only Ukraine, but also the Taiwan he says he wants to help, writes Charles Moore who describes Trump as “a threat to the free world”.
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/donald-trump-isn-t-america-s-saviour-he-s-a-threat-to-the-free-world-20240721-p5jvb3
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Jim Pavlidis
Matt Golding
Geoff Pryor
Alan Moir
Glen Le Lievre
Megan Herbert
Peter Broelman
Nicola Jennings
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
How funny super fans celebrating 51:49 in newspoll.
Everybody else is sub 30 or near it except newspoll. Remember newspoll overestimated the Labor primary last time election as well. Liberal primary is now 38 as well according to newspoll.
Basically minority govt beckons – maybe Mavis is right – try bread and circuses and marriage to move the dial?
From Peter Broelman
Lars Von Trier
Opinion polling companies are battling each other
Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
Newspoll – very consistent for the major parties, 33 ALP, 38 LNP. Two party preferred 51-49 to Labor.
We have a federal poll on its way, and based on what we are seeing across the board, I expect it to be roughly similar.
Quote
Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
Freshwater poll – Federal. ALP 31%, L-NP 40%, Greens 13%, others 16%. Two-party preferred: 51-49 to the LNP. Labor’s primary support remains in the low 30s, while the LNP is in the high 30s. Freshwater reports a higher primary for the LNP than most other public polls
—————————–
Redbridge likely to be similar to newspoll
Not really Scott. Newspoll is the outlier on primary votes.
Still the slow learners only believe it when they see it in newspoll.
The federal lib/nats are not getting the voters(non lib/nats aligned) they need to make inroads
Its understandable things are not good at the moment , why would the non Lib/nats aligned voters start to vote for the federal lib/nats when cost of living , interest rates and inflation will be getting higher under the federal lib/nats with less support
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 7:24 am
Not really Scott. Newspoll is the outlier on primary votes.
Still the slow learners only believe it when they see it in newspoll
————————————-
The federal liberal party believe newspoll they changed 2 prime ministers because of it , the lib/nats combined primary vote was stuck around 37/38%