Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Lordbain @ #447 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 11:08 am

    muskie, deff agree theres going to be a political price to pay as demonstrated by 2019.

    My issue is that when I or someone else point out something like “if you want affordable housing then housing prices need to go down” like mr hyphen himself did this week, you get a certain group of Labor supporters coming in and mocking it as robin hood thinking and pie in the sky dreams. Then the same group turns around and claims Labor is the only “Sensible” party, while Labor… claims to be trying to make housing more affordable, but is doing so in such a way to be infective.

    I guess I for one am sick to death of polies saying you can have your cake and eat it too, and for the party saying “no you actually cant” to be referred too as idealistic robin hood fae/fairy fools (you havnt said any of that, just noting comments made this 48 hours alone)

    I’ve been trying to reflect on what is getting my goat with the current Greens party (remembering I grew up a Green in Tasmania in the 80’s & 90s).

    I did a big post about wokeism in the US election thread. By any definition I hold almost all of the socially progressive ideals that the Greens espouse. I didnt really get why the right had a bee in their bonnet about the ‘woke left’ for many years, but in the past 6 months or so I have really come to loath what the Greens have become.

    It is not that they hold any particularly socially progressive ideals that I disagree with, in fact they seem to hold conflicting ideas about some matters, the Voice referendum shining a light on these disparate positions. It is the holier than thou stance they take on policies that Labor is trying to implement that address exactly the problems the Greens are saying that Labor is not addressing. We see it voiced here as the ‘not far enough’ stance.

    As an example, it has been shown that there is huge rorting of the NDIS, in fact organised crime. Labor tries to fix this and the Greens get up and shout ‘human rights are being trampled on’ then speak out the other side of their mouth and say Labor isnt putting enough money into fixing the housing issue. Perhaps that $14b in savings from the NIDS could go to fixing the housing matter.

    It is rank hypocrisy.

    So it is not surprising that on a blog that is supposedly Labor leaning that multiple people call out this hypocrisy.

  2. Currently in Mexico, and TV news in English is 100% USA. And goodness, you would hardly know there was anywhere outside of the USA. I have seen ONE story on Gaza in the last few days – the rest ALL USA.

  3. Will we ever hear Janet Albrechtsen testify in the Reynolds/Higgins/Lehrmann litigation mess? She seems to be the spider in the middle of this web of sordid deceit.

    “Two days after Federal Court justice Michael Lee found former Liberal staffer Bruce Lehrmann had raped his then-colleague Brittany Higgins in a ministerial office, their former boss Linda Reynolds sat down to dinner with The Australian’s Janet Albrechtsen at Fremantle Italian joint Vin Populi.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/linda-reynolds-janet-albrechtsen-dine-out-after-lehrmann-judgment-20240421-p5flho.html

    “Not under examination by Justice Michael Lee was the conduct of The Australian, but in the wider Lehrmann imbroglio, we have seen its columnist Janet Albrechtsen become a player, rather than a mere reporter. She is accused of “infecting” the head of an inquiry with bias.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/apr/17/bruce-lehrmann-defamation-trial-verdict-brittany-higgins-rape-allegation-spotlight-channel-ten-ntwnfb

    “Lehrmann persisted. “This is getting silly,” complained Auerbach, who said Lehrmann wanted to be flown to Sydney “so he can go to the cricket and see [The Australian journalist] Janet Albrechtsen.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/panicked-missed-calls-and-silly-seat-demands-new-texts-expose-lehrmann-interview-tensions-20240407-p5fhyo.html

  4. MI, your deff not one of the people I refer to as “the usual crew”; i disagree with your statements but you put time and effort into it.

    For example, I think your position on the NDIS is fair; I think its incorrect and i think theres reasons why alot of support groups for disabled communities were concerned with what Labor was proposing, but you dont go “airy fairy” and then leave.

    I would also strongly disagree that the greens are hypocritical and Labor isnt (especially regarding the 2 state solution) but again, you put effort in while others often dont…

  5. And let’s not forget the stooge judge Sofronoff..

    Walter Sofronoff maintained “extensive communication” with a columnist at the Australian – who provided Bruce Lehrmann’s contact details and passed him information – while examining the failed prosecution, a court has been told.

    The former Queensland judge’s 273 interactions with Janet Albrechtsen over seven months were raised as part of a legal challenge by the former ACT director of public prosecutions, Shane Drumgold, who seeks to quash the ACT board of inquiry’s findings.

    Drumgold’s lawyer, Dan O’Gorman, told the ACT supreme court on Monday that Albrechtsen was an “advocate” for Lehrmann who may have “infected” Sofronoff with bias against his client, leading the inquiry head to “deal with matters other than on their legal and factual merits”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/walter-sofronoff-bruce-lehrmann-inquiry-contact-details-the-australian-janet-albrechtsen-shane-drumgold-ntwnfb

  6. I find it unbelievable that we are still allowing developers to expand our suburbs without provision for dedicated busways like those in Almere.
    Imagine how much more valuable the land would be in those areas if they had such provisions made where busways linked to the train stations, shops, school, etc. You’d be able to cram in more housing in areas and sell for a greater profit!

  7. The Westgate tunnel project gets trucks out of the way. Desperately needed for commuters travelling in from the the west and south/west, along with the rail upgrades in that part of Vic. Nothing ‘grandiose’. All well overdue.

    It gets a bad rap thanks to the budget blowouts largely due to you know who.

  8. Albrechtsen’s involvement with Sofronoff was a case of huge overreach from a journalist.

    She has overreached on many issues, which has shown her to be a political player rather than a balanced journalist.

  9. “She has overreached on many issues, which has shown her to be a political player rather than a balanced journalist.”

    Wasn’t she also an IPA member?

  10. Bonzasays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 12:15 pm
    “She has overreached on many issues, which has shown her to be a political player rather than a balanced journalist.”

    Wasn’t she also an IPA member?
    ===================================================

    Not an ordinary member she is the Chairwomen and a director. Note the antiquated IPA still refer to the position as Chairman, even when filled by a women. I prefer to use modern terminology though and have used the non-IPA approved term of Chairwomen instead.

    “Janet Albrechtsen was appointed a director of the Institute of Public Affairs in 2016, and as chairman in July 2018, replacing Rod Kemp, a position held until November, 2019”

    She was also Liberal power brokers Michael Kroger’s partner for about 10 years. Though i’m not sure they are still together now?

  11. Entropy have you thought about doing a Higgins/Lehrmann/Reynolds podcast?

    Maybe you could share some of your theories like the double layered conspiracy analysis with like minded conspiracy theorists?

    Thoughts?

  12. I don’t think there would be much value in a podcast by Entropy Lars. We will soon have the real thing in the court where they will all swear to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. The LNP witnesses will struggle with that concept. On top of that we will have skilled Senior Council asking questions based on all the evidence produced during the discovery process. It’s going to be a blast.

  13. Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 12:23 pm
    Entropy have you thought about doing a Higgins/Lehrmann/Reynolds podcast?

    Maybe you could share some of your theories like the double layered conspiracy analysis with like minded conspiracy theorists?

    Thoughts?
    ==============================================

    I thinking of doing a podcast explaining how to scroll through topics you don’t like on here. Seeing as you don’t contribute to this topic and only have disdain for those that discuss it. Do you you think learning this technique would be of use to you?

  14. I’ve just received a message from my electricity supplier, telling me I have $1000 credit !.
    You will not get anything like that from the LNP !

    I hope all Queensland voters get the same message !!!!!

  15. Granny, I am happy to wait for the court case and see who wins and loses. If it’s anything like the rest of this no one comes out unscathed.

    Dont be too hard on entropy, I am sure there could be some interesting podcasts, here’s my suggestions:

    1) H/L/R – an introduction to HLR studies.
    2) The AFP – what did they know and when did they know it
    3) The unknown ASIO involvement
    4) The Liberal conspiracy within the conspiracy
    5) H/L/R – future developments and areas for more study we can look forward to seeing

  16. Drumgold was pretty evasive on the stand.
    Sure, he tried to bring The Bruce-ster to justice, but had he shown such zeal in any other of the very few Rape cases actioned under his watch in the Socialist Republic of Canberra?
    Albrechtsen?
    It’s her job to know a lot of people.
    Kamala Harris knows a lot of people too, start a conversation about that, there’ll be an outbreak of Hysteria on the blog.

  17. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:45 am
    The AFP can never find who leaked info but Higgin’s legal team suddenly has evidence?

    Sure.
    ======================================================

    You do know Reynolds legal team have already admitted Reynolds leaked those documents to Albrechtsen. They are just arguing she was allowed to do so.

    “In the circumstances, the plaintiff has engaged in a campaign of harassment against the defendant, including by providing confidential information to the media,’’ Ms Higgins’ defence alleges.

    In response, Senator Reynolds’ legal team argued that the conduct described did not constitute harassing Ms Higgins.

    “The information provided to Ms Albrechtsen by the plaintiff (Senator Reynolds) was information in the plaintiff’s own possession and the plaintiff was entitled to deal with it,’’ the response states.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/senator-linda-reynolds-defends-calling-brittany-higgins-a-lying-cow/news-story/7e618ebd71ffdd2ff4ad359a19b3662e

  18. This is fine …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-24/world-breaks-record-for-hottest-day/104135098

    The global average surface air temperature on Sunday reached 17.09 degrees Celsius — slightly higher than the previous record of 17.08C set last July — as heatwaves scorched large swathes of the United States, Europe and Russia.

    Director of the Copernicus service, Carlo Buontempo, said it was possible Sunday’s record could be eclipsed this week as heatwaves continued to sizzle across the world.

  19. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 12:50 pm
    Drumgold was pretty evasive on the stand.
    ===============================================

    When was Drumgold evasive on the stand? What court case are you referring too? Are you referring to the court case Drumgold won?. If so how dodgy must the Sofronoff report actually be. If you believe that of the winning side in this case.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/decision-to-be-handed-down-in-former-act-chief-prosecutors-court-fight-with-board-of-inquiry/news-story/a02a0d5d9b051816ec88e55323b07931

  20. Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 12:48 pm
    5) H/L/R – future developments and areas for more study we can look forward to seeing.
    _____________________
    Job prospects for Sharaz ?
    Seeing as he has not worked since the payout.
    He needs to be able to provide for his growing family.
    Maybe he could go back to CH 7 and dress up as the cash cow again.

  21. Lars, your podcast suggestions would make fascinating listening, especially the third one. We all know that Liberal paragon of virtue Mr Lehrmann was being head hunted by ASIO, a process so secret that not even Mike Burgess, ASIO’s head man knew anything about it.

  22. Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 1:02 pm
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 12:48 pm
    5) H/L/R – future developments and areas for more study we can look forward to seeing.
    _____________________
    Job prospects for Sharaz ?
    Seeing as he has not worked since the payout.
    He needs to be able to provide for his growing family.
    Maybe he could go back to CH 7 and dress up as the cash cow again.
    =====================================================

    They live in France where his wife got a job. Not sure how easy it is for him to get a job in France. assuming he is even eligible to?

  23. Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 12:51 pm
    Yes badthinker Kamala knew Willie Brown extremely well.
    ===================================================

    When they go low Lars joins them.

  24. So high migration is a tri-partisan goal: For the LNP it is cheap workers, for the Greens it is cultural, for Labor it is to keep the CFMEU employed in construction worker. I’m hoping the exiling of the CFMEU resolves the last one.

    I am not convinced there is a housing “shortage” I’m a physical sense. As Ross Gittins reminded today, rents fell over 2020 and 2021 as the borders were shut, so it is not a made up relationship between lower migration and lower rents.

    I agree that the housing market has a whole bunch of dumb distortions, but it is currently a bomb sitting that could blow up the economy. Let’s not make the China mistake – we should reduce migration to slowly defuse the demand side and then move on to the distortions when rising incomes build better consensus for reform.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cost-of-living-crisis-why-only-some-of-us-are-feeling-the-pinch-20240723-p5jvu2.html

  25. Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 1:02 pm
    ===============================================

    It does appear Lars and Badthinker are posting on the USA election. Any advice for them over posting in the wrong thread?. As i know it is a pet hate of yours.

  26. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:55 am
    Reynolds will find her fascinator right next to Lehrmann’s hat.
    =====================================================

    She didn’t go back for the fascinator, i gather it is her cow bell she is trying to retrieve now.

    “Liberal Senator Linda Reynolds has defended her decision to call Brittany Higgins a “lying cow”
    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/senator-linda-reynolds-defends-calling-brittany-higgins-a-lying-cow/news-story/7e618ebd71ffdd2ff4ad359a19b3662e

  27. Over in the UK, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative party set out the rules and schedule of the leadership election on Monday. Screenshotted from Wikipedia.

    So the leader will be announced in November, a few days before the US election.

  28. @LB,

    Note that the government isn’t considering sanctions against the Israeli government or leadership, JUST the settlers, and it can’t even commit to that……. It’s not even wet lettuce at this point – damp cobwebs maybe?

    Hooray for the rules based order, or something

  29. Anthony Albanese tipped to reshuffle front bench before parliament resumes
    A minister who has been under intense pressure says any reshuffle is for Anthony Albanese to decide, with the PM expected to refresh his ministry soon.

    Hope?

  30. pied piper @ #493 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 2:00 pm

    Anthony Albanese tipped to reshuffle front bench before parliament resumes
    A minister who has been under intense pressure says any reshuffle is for Anthony Albanese to decide, with the PM expected to refresh his ministry soon.

    Hope?

    I know a few federal and state MPs. Being a cabinet minister is punishing work at a personal level. Reshuffles should not always be viewed through a political lens, these are real people burning out.

  31. ‘PageBoi says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 1:55 pm

    @LB,

    Note that the government isn’t considering sanctions against the Israeli government or leadership, JUST the settlers, and it can’t even commit to that……. It’s not even wet lettuce at this point – damp cobwebs maybe?

    Hooray for the rules based order, or something’
    ——————–
    How’s your rules-based order coming along in Iran, Heshbollah country, Syria, Iraq, Hamas country and Houthi country? They have all made genocidal vision statements. They are all working to deliver on their vision.

    Israel, ditto.

  32. Precisely – “Greens political party” is used to differentiate the antics of Bandt and co from voters who consider themselves Greens. Labor does not want to alienate Greens while attacking the political moves of the Greens political party. It’s also used to emphasise that the Greens are a political party and do things for political gain, rather than being a pure as the driven snow environmental movement as they still like to pretend sometimes.

    A case in point of this was the Voice where the Greens political party originally backed Lidia Thorpe’s anti-Voice line but Greens voters, who mostly didn’t notice this prior to the election, were strongly in favour of the Voice which ultimately forced Bandt to do the dirty on Thorpe, backflip on the policy and force her out.

    Given the pejoratives thrown at Labor supporters around here daily, and thrown at the Prime Minister from both the Bandt end (“genocide supporter!”) and the Dutton end (“Airbus Albo!”), it’s pretty thin-skinned to have a whine about “Greens political party” or even “Max Hyphen” (the latter IS just a schoolyard insult, but eh. Max throws those around himself too).

  33. Theoretically, leaking confidential material to provide MSM bullets against your enemy to, say, a journalist like Albrechtson would possibly seem to constitute some sort of intent to harrass.

    And should a journalist like, say, Albrechtson actually fire those bullets on several occasions then that would seem to constitute some sort of actual campaign of harassment. And even if that were not the intent, the reasonable apprehension of being harassed is certainly something to consider.

    Especially should a journalist, say, like Albrechtson also happening to be penning related columns that had the sniff of related campaigns about them as well.

    It could be nothing to see here. It could be nothing to hear here. ta rumpa ta rumpa pumpa pumpa pum.

    I am sure that Liberal Reynolds, Liberal Higgins, Liberal Lehrmann, Liberal Morrison will sort it all out. It does rather seem as if the Liberals have nothing better to do.

  34. The trouble with The Hyphen is not the Hyphen.

    It is the arrant hypocrisy of someone who astroturfs against housing construction in his electorate, who delayed billions in housing for DV victims, remote Indigenous people and homeless people and who is currently blocking more funding for housing supply wanking on about rents.

    Max cares. He really does.

  35. Labor does not want to alienate Greens while attacking the political moves of the Greens political party.

    ————-

    I’d suspect it is having the opposite effect – it probably alienates Greens voters further and if anything puts other (non-rusted on Labor) voters offside.

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