Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. TWonderland
    Fair enough……but just where are all these extra workers coming from?
    There is an outcry that there are “too many immigrants coming in” which is set against the “Where are all the babies gone?”
    Just how will this government housing bonanza be financed and where are the resources to do it?
    Some earlier poster mentioned that resources should be move away from “infrastructure”. Fair enough point again, but when the people living in the acres of state built housing want to actually travel somewhere by public transport – and there is none – I guess the answer is, well, you can’t have you cake an eat it.
    As a not very nice German said once, the German people have the choice of butter or guns…Guess which won out?

  2. Tricot… what on earth does the housing market post the single most destructive conflict in human history on an island that was one of the most targeted locations during a portion of this conflict have to do with modern day Australia?

    Also keep in mind that Menzies, fucking Menzies, due to greater government involvement and investment, helped generate a home owner rate of that would be a current equivalent of 86 percent.

    Hell, Menzies, from the party of free market capitalism, demonstrated just what the government can do if its prepared to actually be involved directly… something I note Labor is certainly not comfortable in doing; modern Labor hasn’t found a problem it doesn’t think can’t be solved by the free market…

  3. Upcoming polls, just to tidy everything up since the Dutton backflip, Nuclear reactor locations, Payman, S3 tax cuts, Senate legislation blocking and the CFMEU saga (which I believe is confined to Vic):

    * Hopefully YouGov by the end of this week.
    Link: https://au.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports
    .. for anyone who wishes to monitor.

    * Redbridge Group – hopefully over the weekend.

    * Monday around 5PM’ish – Roy Morgan again
    * Tues morning – Essential Vision report

    ..that should probably be it for July, and then the circus repeats itself during August.

    Per Ipsos Vlad – Ipsos stopped polling on the primaries shortly after the 2019 Fed election. They do bring a thing out called the Ipsos issues monitor every month, but alas no primaries. Link here if you wish to read. It basically canvasses what posters on this site talk about anyway.

    Link: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2024-07/IM_Nat_Jun24.pdf

  4. Barnaby Joyce claims that a lack of wind (for wind turbines) is driving up electricity costs. (advert for Ch7 news)

    Real Trumpist stuff!

  5. citizensays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 6:06 pm
    Barnaby Joyce claims that a lack of wind (for wind turbines) is driving up electricity costs. (advert for Ch7 news)

    Real Trumpist stuff!
    ===================================================

    If only we could harness the hot air coming out of Barnaby’s mouth.

  6. Sandman

    I have said on here many times that the ALP badly misread the mood of the electorate after the Morrison years. If there was ever a time that the electorate was in the mood for change, it was after Morrison. In fact I would argue that the polling doldrums the government finds itself in stem directly from people’s disappointment that not only has nothing really changed after the last government, but that their standard of living has gotten worse.

    2019 was as much about people not trusting or liking shorten, the ALP running a pretty arrogant campaign, and allowing false narratives like death taxes and franking credits to take root. As usual I think they learned all the wrong lessons from that campaign, and then completely failed to grasp the change of paradigm post covid (and everything else that happened in the Morrison years)

    I think the ALP could have run with negative gearing changes and not committed to stage 3 and still romped it in given how hated Morrison was, and wouldn’t be so boxed into a corner now

  7. Australia would be one of the biggest losers if a Donald Trump presidency restarts a trade war with China and further fractures the global trading system, experts warn.
    The Republican platform included the commitment to “protect American workers and farmers from unfair trade”, which included “supporting baseline tariffs” of at least 10 per cent “on foreign-made goods”, alongside a vow to “secure strategic independence from China”.
    If elected, Mr Trump will “prevent the importation of Chinese vehicles”, the platform says. The Biden administration has already quadrupled the tariff rate on Chinese-made EVs to 100 per cent, doubled the rate on solar panels imported from China to 50 per cent, and announced plans to double the rate on semiconductors to 50 per cent in 2025.
    ANU economics professor Warwick McKibbin, who leads the university’s Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, said the further erosion of free trade under a Trump presidency would be “unambiguously bad” for Australia.
    In particular, Republican plans to slap tariffs of at least 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports would reduce economic growth in our most important trading partner by 1-3 per cent.
    With commodity export earnings a key factor underpinning Australia’s budget surplus, a weaker China would deliver a hit to the demand Australian goods, Professor McKibbin said.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/donald-trumps-economic-agenda-would-hurt-australia-experts-say/news-story/d6b1ef382dbd928e91d50dc997c7135f?amp

  8. In an unprecedented show of unity and star power, music icons Beyoncé and Taylor Swift have just announced their plan to host a colossal fundraising concert aimed at mobilizing their massive fan bases in support of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.

    This announcement has sent shockwaves through the entertainment and political worlds, with many dubbing it a game-changing moment in the current political landscape

    Trump will be beside himself!
    https://ukdiscoverer.com/breaking-news-beyonce-and-taylor-swift-to-host-monumental-fundraising-concert-in-support-of-kamala-harris/

  9. BK: With voluntary voting the only way Kamala can win the swing states and presidency is if the under 40s come out to vote.

  10. BK @ #562 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 6:22 pm

    In an unprecedented show of unity and star power, music icons Beyoncé and Taylor Swift have just announced their plan to host a colossal fundraising concert aimed at mobilizing their massive fan bases in support of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.

    This announcement has sent shockwaves through the entertainment and political worlds, with many dubbing it a game-changing moment in the current political landscape

    Trump will be beside himself!
    https://ukdiscoverer.com/breaking-news-beyonce-and-taylor-swift-to-host-monumental-fundraising-concert-in-support-of-kamala-harris/

    Have you not been reading the US election thread, BK? Apparently celebrity endorsements mean nothing these days because they are soooo predictable.

    So sad, too bad … 🙂

  11. It is good to see that Beyonce and Swift are going to use their immense loyal fan base to generate massive amounts of money for Harris.

    Half a billion followers must mean something positive.

  12. Has anyone else noticed the heightened panic from the LGNP side of the political spectrum with the realisation that the nuclear debate has fallen flat, neither by exploding or because of lack of disinterest in its expensive design failures and lack of serious details.
    The LGNP now just going to the fall back position, spearheaded by the wonderfully qualified, suitably sober ex DPM, bleating about electricity prices.
    The USA election, with the thankfully, woefully unsuccessful shooting and the emergence of a new star to headline the campaign in the USA, has increased the notion that the MAGA candidates in both USA and Australia are looking decidedly inadequate.
    What damage to democracy will Trump and family subject the USA and its citizens
    to after the up coming defeat at the circus called sometimes the US elections.

    The Greens in Australia have had their efforts to be significant fall flat. Many Australian voters realise the great divide between “being a Green” and the political arm of the Greens has never been so highlighted.

    The endless parade of denial in Australia of the part played by Howard and the other LNP pretenders in the deceit when justifying the institutionalizing of corruption throughout the political landscape is astounding.

    Campari is now being rationed in the Eastern suburbs of Sydney.

    There was movement at the polling station Nadia but not enough to settle the Corduroy brigade, the wannabe “green with significance envy” Mafioso and the boys from the bush, all of whom will do well to find the perfect mix for the ultimate negroni.

    The LGNP experiment has been a proven failure.

  13. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 6:18 pm

    Australia would be one of the biggest losers if a Donald Trump presidency restarts a trade war with China and further fractures the global trading system, experts warn.
    ….’
    ———————
    Yep.

    Australia’s Wannabe Trump, Dutton, should find some spine and get stuck into just how dangerous Trump is to our national security and trade interests.

  14. BK

    That literally made my night – thank you!!!!

    If only Lemmy could somehow come from beyond the grave and play with Tay Tay and Beyonce against Trump……

  15. The single quickest fix for housing, worker availability and for CO2 emissions is to put a Green Cap on tourist numbers.
    I look forward to the Greens demanding that this win win win policy setting be implemented immediately.
    It would leave some more whales free of the botheration of tourist boats as well.
    Yet another plus.

  16. ‘TropicalWonderland says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 5:43 pm

    @Tricot – how about this for a short term solution – build some bloody houses!!
    ….’
    ——————-
    Several Labor initiatives here have been either inordinantly delayed or blocked completely.
    You should take this up with the Tag Team of the Thug and his Bandicoot.

  17. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 6:47 pm
    Some interesting cuts. James Campbell from the Herald Sun being a notable victim. Stutchbury from the AFR resigned earlier this week.
    ===================================================

    Is Dutton possibly unhappy with him. As he sold Dutton a dud steer at the Aston by-election. I gather James Campbell wife is in her 30’s too. Maybe someone else who fits the Lars profile? That he posted about yesterday.

  18. Something for the Greens and the Liberals to think about before the continue with their relentless campaigns to inflame communalist hatreds in Australia:

    From the Guardian by Josh Butler

    ‘An “unprecedented” rise in Islamophobia around Australia has been reported since the 7 October terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel, according to the leading group tracking such incidents in this country, a Senate committee has heard.

    Mariam Veiszadeh, founder and chair of the Islamophobia Register Australia, told the inquiry into right-wing extremism that there was major concern around how such extremist groups perpetrated abuse and attacks against Muslims.

    The register has documented an increase on last count of around 581%.

    Veiszadeh added and acknowledged there had of course been a rise in antisemitism since that time too.

    She said Islamophobia was also a gendered issue, with 78% of victims reported as women and 70% of perpetrators being men, according to a 2023 report from the register.

    The committee’s chair, Liberal senator Paul Scarr, spoke of his admiration for Veiszadeh’s “courage in pursuing the work you do, in the face of that awful, despicable intimidation”.’

  19. ‘PageBoi says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 6:59 pm

    How many degrees of warming does your hot air contribute BW?’
    ————————–
    It is a well known fact that a Greens Party Supporter who has been chopped up in a Bludger discussion soon reverts to petty personal jibes.

  20. The Greens Party and the Liberal Party should both look at the way in which Islamophobia is a gendered issue with women bearing the brunt of their combined efforts to stoke communalist tensions in Australia.

  21. BW, some simple questions (that you wont answer)

    What is wrong with banning construction in flood prone areas?
    How have the Greens contributed to Islamophobia?
    How have the greens limited housing, when the single largest cash injection came from the Greens actions in government?
    When will you apologize to Page for lying about them?

    Pretty simple questions…

  22. Lordbain some of the posts you have directed at me have been by far and away the most vicious I have received in over a decade of Bludger posting. There is zip chance of me taking anything you post at all seriously.

  23. Lordbain….
    For heavens sake, lower the temperature. The housing problem is an economic one as much as a social one. Part of the problem is that those who want/own houses want it both ways, the utility the house provides for shelter and an investment possibility. Nothing wrong for hoping for both, but when the investment desire far outweighs the utility factor, troubles begin.
    I am amazed you don’t get it that when houses are flattened after a war, with all the best will in the world of either a Tory or Labor government, houses do not grow like mushrooms.
    If you can’t follow this fairly simple line of thinking then – again – it is a waste of time and effort debating the issue.
    Think I will leave it to others to respond to your stuff……

  24. Hehe, yep, chopped up

    You got me good

    As usual you haven’t actually defended any of your claims at all, you’ve just reverted to whataboutism and deflection. Still no defence of the actual Australian government policy, which was the topic at hand

    Serious question BW – do you sincerely think that this government under Albo is a good government??? One that has the best interests of the country at heart?? Sure it’s better than the last mob, but we all agree that’s an incredibly low bar………

    Personally I think it’s time for something or someone who wants to change the country for the better, not just win government and then squander all their political capital and fuck around the edges. Whether that’s teals, greens, others or all of the above

  25. According to Tricot, BW, gol etc the greens are responsible for but not limited to;

    Weakening the Labor government
    Flaming hatred within multiple cultures
    Ruining the voice
    Holding up housing
    Ruining the NDIS
    Ruining Super Reform
    Ruining the NACC
    Ruining a certain Labor senators career
    Supporting terrorism
    Hating Jews
    Causing Islamophobia
    Encouraging China

    What else have I missed?

  26. pageboi

    Thanks for the personal abuse apology…

    You ask about the Albanese Government. Given the times it is a good, solid, reformist government that is getting Australia through some extremely tough international times.

    It has carried out hundreds large and small reforms.

    It is repairing a trillion dollar debt.

    It is hobbled by a decade of Coalition neglect.

    It is hobbled by Dutton and Bandt who between them have a shared agenda: destroy Labor. They are currently holding up social housing funding, taxation of super accounts of more than $3 million (YES THE FUCKING GREENS HYPOCRITES ARE DOING THAT!), massive NDIS reform (MUCH TO THE BENEFIT OF THE SPIVS, CROOKS AND SHYSTERS – YES THE FUCKING GREENS ARE DOING JUST THAT!), oh and aged care reform and religious discrimination reform. Starmer does not know how lucky he is not having to fight with one arm held behind his back by Dutton and the other arm held behind his back by Bandt.

    Despite this, the Albanese Government has:

    carried out hundreds of small and large reforms

    kept the lid on the ever-rising communalist hatreds being stoked by the Liberals and the Greens. It has done so while offering aid and joining in multilateral support for peace initiatives.

    got real wages moving

    has been the first government to keep itself out of a war for a quarter of a century

    has mopped up a huge swathes of Coalition crony corruption

    is an honest government!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    has implemented its five point plan for delivering 43/30. These were modeled and costed to deliver the outcome. Unfortunately the Plan was severely delayed by the Liberals and the Greens. But it will deliver 43/30. I am 100% confident that Labor will tweak whatever needs tweaking to deliver 43/30.

    has probably got the balance right between the need to get cash into people’s pockets and the fight against inflation. I note in passing the sheer populist lunacy of the senior Greens politician who called for a 40% wage rise: Trump-scale nuts.

    it inherited a massive post Covid immigration mess which has triggered a housing shortage mess. Its efforts to address this have been thwarted and are right now being thwarted by the Greens and the Liberals.

    it has reduced the gender pay gap

    it has systematically treated women with respect

    And.. no, Labor will not deliver a nuclear nothingburger. Nor will Labor lie like the Greens are lying through their teeth about delivering zero net forty.

    My advice to you guys is to make 100% sure you get your bastardy destructo settings right. It would be tragic if all you managed to do with your witless destruction, delay and braggadocio was to gift Dutton the prime ministership. A disinterested observer would be right to consider whether that is actually the outcome you are seeking.

  27. bc at 6:38 pm
    Brisbane has flooded four times since settlement: in 1893, 1974, 2011 and 2022.

    That’s almost like an exponential series.
    Floods marked on the wall of Regatta Hotel, corner Sylvan Rd & Coronation Drive from highest to lowest:
    1841; 1893 [twice in 6 weeks]; 1974; 2011; 2022.
    Other flood heights are marked at the old Kangaroo Point Naval depot, beneath where Gillard gave her “No Carbon Tax” vow.
    From memory, there were also significant floods in the Brisbane River in 1917, the Twenties and Thirties, 1954 and 1965. Low lying areas such as Rocklea have had many more floods. The Greens have proposed [Government] buying up all houses in Rocklea for demolition and use as parkland.
    The problem, as far as I can understand and I’m probably wrong, is that the water in all the dams is owned by a Government Corporation since the Beattie [LABOR] Government and a lengthy permission process has to be gone thru to release water.
    That’s been the reason for all the Brisbane floods since the Wivenhoe Dam was completed c.1985.

  28. Player One @ #566 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 6:33 pm

    BK @ #562 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 6:22 pm

    In an unprecedented show of unity and star power, music icons Beyoncé and Taylor Swift have just announced their plan to host a colossal fundraising concert aimed at mobilizing their massive fan bases in support of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.

    This announcement has sent shockwaves through the entertainment and political worlds, with many dubbing it a game-changing moment in the current political landscape

    Trump will be beside himself!
    https://ukdiscoverer.com/breaking-news-beyonce-and-taylor-swift-to-host-monumental-fundraising-concert-in-support-of-kamala-harris/

    Have you not been reading the US election thread, BK? Apparently celebrity endorsements mean nothing these days because they are soooo predictable.

    So sad, too bad … 🙂

    Just quoting the polling science site.

  29. I’m back! 😀

    I see The Greens’, FanBoi and Lordblame, are totally missing the wood for the trees as usual.

    Labor not doing enough about the Housing crisis?

    The Queensland government has tapped into its $1bn Housing Investment Fund to buy and convert 85 beach cabins into social and affordable housing for struggling families.

    Housing minister Meaghan Scanlon said the Miles Government helped purchase Barney Beach Accommodation in Gladstone for long-term housing needs – part of a plan to deliver one million more homes including 53,500 for social housing needs.

    “We make no apologies for using the Housing Investment Fund to deliver more homes faster while we build,” Ms Scanlon said.

    “Our Homes for Queenslanders plan is pulling every lever possible, whether that’s buying former retirement villages, accommodation parks and hotels; building modular homes and supporting the Federal Government’s Help to Buy shared equity scheme.”

    The Friend St project, in partnership with affordable housing administrator Roseberry Community Services, will see 20 social housing units made available and 65 affordable homes 80 metres from Gladstone’s only beach.

    “The LNP have made it clear they will not use the Fund to purchase homes, which means they don’t support projects like this partnership with Roseberry,” Ms Scanlon said.

    “Instead of supporting more homes through initiatives like this, the LNP (and The Greens) are too busy blocking 8,000 Queenslanders from buying their own home by blocking Help to Buy legislation.”

    The purchase comes as new Proptrack data found rental price growth rose 3.3 per cent in Brisbane and 4.2 per cent in regional Queensland in the past year to now sit at $620 a week across the state.

    The beach cabins are being repurposed to provide safe housing to “those who need them most”.

    Roseberry Queensland general manager Jo Paringatai said “with the repurposing of the existing premises in Barney Beach, now called the Friend St Village, we are increasing access to affordable homes and creating a place where individuals and families can lead safe and fulfilling lives in secured environments”.

    Member for Gladstone Glenn Butcher said it was an example of the government doing what matters, locking in 85 homes for the community.

    The Barney Beach Accommodation in Gladstone will now be used for long-term social and affordable housing needs.

    The move follows the state government buying a former serviced apartment in Gladstone for 34 self-contained social homes in partnership with Regional Housing Limited, the purchase of a former inner-Brisbane hotel and a 124-home former retirement village in Logan.

    https://www.realestate.com.au/news/no-apologies-govt-buys-85-beach-cabins-for-social-housing/

    And that’s just in one state.

    PageBoi and Lordbain should stop squatting on PB and get out into the real world. The one where Labor is putting runs on the board. But that would expose them to the truth, and The Greens and upstart Independents of the kind PageBoi advocates for, just can’t handle the truth. Instead preferring workshopped narratives based on advice from their communications and marketing advisers.

  30. For heavens sake, lower the temperature. The housing problem is an economic one as much as a social one.
    It’s a failing of Democracy.
    The majority don’t want tidal wave immigration, but the Greens/Labor/L-NP refuse to listen.

  31. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 7:47 pm
    bc at 6:38 pm
    Brisbane has flooded four times since settlement: in 1893, 1974, 2011 and 2022.

    That’s almost like an exponential series.
    Floods marked on the wall of Regatta Hotel, corner Sylvan Rd & Coronation Drive from highest to lowest:
    1841; 1893 [twice in 6 weeks]; 1974; 2011; 2022.
    ====================================================

    The Regatta Hotel Brisbane was built in 1886. So how does it have a flood mark on its wall from 1841? Is this one of your timey wimey things again?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regatta_Hotel

  32. To hit the government’s housing targets, 20,000 homes will need to be built every month from July this year to June 2029.

    89 houses is… .445 percent of the target.

    Bravo, I feel like my entire view on Labor being a failure on housing has blown up in my face.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-03/australia-to-miss-target-of-1-2-million-new-homes/103799084
    Australia to miss target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029, according to State of the Housing System report

    About as effective as the NACC…

    I look forward to a rational explanation as to how everyone else is wrong, and Labor will somehow meet the target they are not on track to meet 🙂

  33. I believe that the first chaps who went upriver in a whitefella boat wondered why there were logs lodged in the canopies of trees well up the banks of the river…

  34. MI, thats a good link, and I believe (ill try to find it) that studies on right wing populism show that celebrity endorsements can have a negative effect as they play into the elitist narrative the right wing populist uses.

    Also on a side note the youngsters (young millennials and older zoomies) I run the tabletop sessions for mention that Swift is on the out for alot of youngsters based on an image of being fake (especially for zoomies onward)

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