The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.
Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.
goll says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 6:50 pm
………………………….
There was movement at the polling station Nadia but not enough to settle the Corduroy brigade, the wannabe “green with significance envy” Mafioso and the boys from the bush, all of whom will do well to find the perfect mix for the ultimate negroni.
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Goll – I actually didn’t understand your “word salad” post. However, could you kindly explain why i am dragged into your monologue at the last moment, per above.
Do you think I somehow co-ordinate the polls? Do you think I create the numbers. I just comment, like others. What exactly is your point, if you have time to respond please.
Lordbain @ #600 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 7:58 pm
I like her old stuff better than her new stuff.
But geeky question, what tabletop sessions do you run. If it’s too geeky don’t out yourself if you’re not comfortable with that.
Mi, I am certainly NOT afraid to out myself on the tabletop 🙂
During covid (through family) i started your average 5th ed DnD. Then slowly corrupted them into giving pathfinder a try. We are currently doing Free Leagues Alien RPG (the cinematic modules are amazing and total party kills are a feature, not a bug. We might dip into some 40k tabletop by the end of year, but theres been pretty strong demand for a space colony campaign using the Alien rpg universe.
West and Beyonce will deliver energy and they will deliver what?
Tens of millions of dollars and thousands of energized young campaign workers?
Lordbain @ #603 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 8:10 pm
I’m currently running Paranoia, using the latest rules. It’s so silly it’s almost too much fun. Just finished a 40k RPG where I shoehorned the necomunda rules in, aka like an action RPG, makes it easy for me as the combat is so quick and easy, allows a focus on the story line.
Ooo I will shamelessly borrow that idea MI.
Will also have to add Paranoia to the list
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 7:55 pm
To hit the government’s housing targets, 20,000 homes will need to be built every month from July this year to June 2029.
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Buckley’s.
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:19 pm
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 7:55 pm
To hit the government’s housing targets, 20,000 homes will need to be built every month from July this year to June 2029.
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Buckley’s, Dutton’s and Bandt’s.
No funding whatsoever has been handed out under the HAFF fund. Given there are less than 9 months to the election it is unlikely construction of a house will even start let alone be finished.
Labor cant even build a token 5000 houses per year.
Taylormade @ #607 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 8:19 pm
That’s why abandoned housing developments, retirement villages, hotels and tourist accommodation are being bought. 🙂
Oh, and it’s eleventy times more than the Coalition would ever have built.
HAFF delayed by Dutton and Bandt.
Absolutely heartless treatment of homeless people by the Gang of Two.
L-NP will be in Government long before 2029, but let’s say Labor is still there.
I reckon Labor will build, at the most, 600 homes in that time.
Why?
1/. Because they’re incompetent
2/. Because there’s no money in it for the builders.
HAFF was given an extra 3 billion dollars… because of the Greens
That’s why abandoned housing developments, retirement villages, hotels and tourist accommodation are being bought.
Any detail on what was paid for these “assets”?
Mostly Interested,
My oldest son developed, on his own, a Word-based/Turn-based online interactive game, called ‘Wyzzards’ when he was in his early 20s. He was the Master of Ceremonies. It was becoming quite popular until he decided to devote his time and energy to Astrology. Now he writes books about Astrology and has a weekly radio show in America. 🙂
The first round of haff funding applications closed in March of this year.
Four months and no decisions on funding …… this is bureaucratic failure . It is after all a decision on about 500 houses being built. How hard is it ?
Badthinker @ #614 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 8:40 pm
A lot more has been gained for the money than handing taxpayers $$ over to LNP mates for dodgy deals.
Oh, and speaking about wasting taxpayers’ $$, which the Coalition are past masters at, it’s good to see Dodgy Dutton admitting that it’s going to take 80 years for the taxpayers to pay off his nuclear reactors. Or ‘amortize’ them, as he euphemistically and dodgily puts it. 😐
Badthinkersays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:38 pm
L-NP will be in Government long before 2029, but let’s say Labor is still there.
I reckon Labor will build, at the most, 600 homes in that time.
Why?
1/. Because they’re incompetent
2/. Because there’s no money in it for the builders.
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A prophecy from someone who believes a building built in 1886 can have a flood mark from 1841. You can’t help being sceptical about anything you say. As so much of it is BS.
Quote: “A big ball of wibbly wobbly, timey wimey stuff”
Does Badthinker still believe that we will be going to an early election in August? 😆
Lordbain
Did you hear Weyland Yutarni might get the AUKUS contract? 😉
I have also played an Aliens universe campaign with friends here in Adelaide.
Since then though we have been having great fun with a Cthulu campaign set in historic Adelaide (1900s to 1920s) complete with references to period buildings, events and train services! Its great fun 🙂
Cat
“ Does Badthinker still believe that we will be going to an early election in August? ”
A man needs something to dream for Cat 🙂
Socrates, better the Wey U then, say, Umbrella 😛
Cthulhu is always a blast; sometimes you want a classic hero to power fantasy tabletop, and sometimes you wanna see just how gruesome your ending is.
Nadia, 8.04,
[Goll – I actually didn’t understand your “word salad” post. However, could you kindly explain why i am dragged into your monologue at the last moment, per above.
Do you think I somehow co-ordinate the polls? Do you think I create the numbers. I just comment, like others. What exactly is your point, if you have time to respond]
The “word salad” is unfortunately my bad habit. Decline it as you wish.
It was not my intention to drag you anywhere. My apologies.
I actually appreciate your contributions, whether it be the posting of the timing of expected blogs and your general commentary.
I don’t and have never suggested you co-ordinate or create numbers.
I believe I was acknowledging your contributions and did not deliberately set out to elicit anything else.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 10:42 pm
Nadia88
The Teals – Gosh, spare me. They lack any political party structure and are reliant on funding from wealthy individuals. The Teals won seats, because the Greens and Labor members held hands in those seats to oust the sitting Libs, aided by changing demographics The gloves should come off soon, and the Greens and Labor will be fighting to take those ex-Lib seats for themselves. Kooyong, for example, should go Green eventually. Will probably revert back to the Libs next election, but eventually it will turn Green. Burnside pulled 21% there in 2019 so there is a very decent Green rump in that seat. If the Lib vote stays down around 40% there, & the Greens come 2nd, then they should win the seat off ALP preferences…eventually.
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Don’t see Kooyong going green because the electorate keeps expanding east and south into less green friendly areas and talk of demographic change is misleading because change is being driven by a growing Asian population and many of them are wealthy so the ALP might be a stronger chance than the greens because that wealthy Asian population has gone to the ALP at state level. The UK greens first seat was a bit like Kooyong that was once solid conservative but moved away from the conservatives over many elections before flipping to labour in the 97 election before going green.
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MexBeemer – yes you may be right, however Kooyong has actually expanded a bit south-westish, and has picked up areas of Toorak. So I stick by my above comment that the seat may return (temporarily) to the LNP, before inevitably going to the Greens. It’s actually the point you make above anyway.
Remember that 21% Green rump Burnside pulled in 2019. 21% in a supposedly blue ribbon Lib seat. It’s a significant primary. To be watched closely next election. We’ll see.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:45 pm
Does Badthinker still believe that we will be going to an early election in August?
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Probably, though his prediction is probably now for August 2023. He rarely lets the constraints of linear time hamper his statements.
Lordbain @ #622 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 8:48 pm
I’m lining up a game of Achtung! Cthulhu. I’m just a little tired of the traditional stuff and seek odd systems no-one gets onto the table.
Socratessays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:48 pm
Cat
“ Does Badthinker still believe that we will be going to an early election in August? ”
A man needs something to dream for Cat
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“If you build your life on dreams it’s prudent to recall; a man with moonlight in his hands has nothing there at all.”
Socrates @ #621 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 8:48 pm
I think he’s a Baddreamer, Soc.
I went into an event at Adelaide City Council Town Hall this evening to hear Allan Behm (former defence advisor to Fraser, Hawke, Keating, head of strategy at Defence and later advisor to Penny Wong). He was speaking on the launch of his new book, The Odd Couple, about the Australia USA relationship. I bought a copy and will be reading it soon.
Behm argues that the whole relationship between Australia and USA is dysfunctional because Australia is too subservient. In this regard, AUKUS is a symptom of the problem rather than the problem.
Behm considers that Australia’s leadership is driven too much by insecurity. We exaggerate the threat of China, and so commit ourselves to an exaggerated and over-costly solution. Plus, recognising the reality of US politics, there is no guarantee the costly security we are paying for will be provided, depending on who is in the White House.
Behm had a lot of historical and current evidence to justify each point.
https://www.dymocks.com.au/book/the-odd-couple-by-allan-behm-9780645247992
So, there’s going to be a realignment of the Labor Ministry once Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor announce their retirements?
I think Malandirri Macarthy would be the best bet to replace Linda Burney. However, Marion Scrymgour may get the nod because she is in the Lower House.
As far as Brendan O’Connor’s replacement, that’s a tough one. There are so many talented up-and-comers in Labor’s ranks, I can’t decide who should get the nod!
Lordbain, MI
We have found Cthulu set in the city you live in, just translated to a different era, to be great fun. Endless opportunities for a creative DM to repurpose buildings and settings you know in a different era. Our DM has even dug up historic photos from the era which he circulates via email prior to games as hooks to the story line. Evidently somebody wrote a whole series of Australian set Cthulus scenarios called “Terra Australis”. Great stories. Recommended if you can find them.
Badthinker – you’re a good poster and have a great knowledge of our Electoral Act, but you need to “own” the Aug.3 election blooper. I’m sure Entropy and others will forgive, and possibly decide to forget. Until that happens though, sorry, it will keep coming up.
Lars’ turn come’s on Nov.9 and mine on Dec.7 or 14. I’ll wear it if my pred doesn’t come through.
You too Mr.
Cat
I think all our dreams would be troubled if we spent our days typing in the service of Menzies House or Rupert Murdoch.
nadia88says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:12 pm
Badthinker – you’re a good poster and have a great knowledge of our Electoral Act, but you need to “own” the Aug.3 election blooper. I’m sure Entropy and others will forgive, and possibly decide to forget. Until that happens though, sorry, it will keep coming up.
Lars’ turn come’s on Nov.9 and mine on Dec.7 or 14. I’ll wear it if my pred doesn’t come through.
You too Mr.
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Forget the August election. I’m more interested how a pub built in 1886 got a flood mark from a 1841 flood? Followed by why does he believe the CFMEU didn’t exist in the year 2000? Plus how posts made after an election had any effect on that election?
Though to be fair your statement that “Badthinker – you’re a good poster” is up their with those crazy statements too.
C@tmomma @ #615 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 8:40 pm
You should recommend him as a Labor policy strategist. He would easily outperform the current lot.
Socratessays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:14 pm
Cat
I think all our dreams would be troubled if we spent our days typing in the service of Menzies House or Rupert Murdoch.
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The LNP are pretty incompetent. Yet even i can’t believe they would employ “Badthinker”. Unless of course the LNP believe in “infinite monkey theorem” and Badthinker is just one of those monkeys?
goll says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 8:49 pm
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No probs Goll & thanks for getting back. I’m probably a little bit shirty about the current PB carry-on about the “ALP Primary”, and that it seems to keep bouncing back to me like I somehow organised it. There was a mini carry on with another poster 2 weeks ago which I got dragged into as well.
Goodness forbid if another poll shows the ALP primary below 30%, or the Greens tracking above 15%. I’d be too scared to post.
However, as I usually say – straight through to the keeper, so we move on.
nadia, if the Greens drop below 10 ill blame you 🙂
Socrates @ #633 Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 – 9:14 pm
And they would become nightmares if they did it in the service of Peter Dutton.
Soc,
You reckon paying for the subs is a raw deal! It’s as nothing compared to 80 years to pay for Dutton’s nuclear reactors! By which time we’ll need the subs because we’ll all be living under water! 😆
Before I go to the Land of Nod (moving house takes it out of you), here’s a feel-good post from The Bulwark’s JVL analysing Kamala Harris’ first solo rally:
https://youtu.be/saF-9txzYpI?si=pRYoggRZ_4ZejSrh
Enjoy. 🙂
Entropysays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:23 pm
nadia88says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:12 pm
Forget the August election. I’m more interested how a pub built in 1886 got a flood mark from a 1841 flood? Followed by why does he believe the CFMEU didn’t exist in the year 2000? Plus how posts made after an election had any effect on that election?
Though to be fair your statement that “Badthinker – you’re a good poster” is up their with those crazy statements too.
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If you think so Entropy.
Badthinker has a good knowledge of the 1983 Electoral Act, which is something I checked after a post of his a month or so ago. As for his other predictions – you can sort it out with him. Not my beef.
Glad you’ve moved on from his Aug-3 Federal election prediction though. I gather we won’t hear about it again.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:10 pm
As far as Brendan O’Connor’s replacement, that’s a tough one. There are so many talented up-and-comers in Labor’s ranks, I can’t decide who should get the nod.
_____________________
How about giving Graham Perrett a go.
In AFL terms he would be described as a ‘list clogger’.
Time for him to step up and take on some responsibility.
He has been in 2007. Can’t be just a backbencher for his entire career.
nadia88says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:39 pm
Entropysays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:23 pm
nadia88says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:12 pm
Forget the August election. I’m more interested how a pub built in 1886 got a flood mark from a 1841 flood? Followed by why does he believe the CFMEU didn’t exist in the year 2000? Plus how posts made after an election had any effect on that election?
Though to be fair your statement that “Badthinker – you’re a good poster” is up their with those crazy statements too.
======================
If you think so Entropy.
Badthinker has a good knowledge of the 1983 Electoral Act, which is something I checked after a post of his a month or so ago. As for his other predictions – you can sort it out with him. Not my beef.
Glad you’ve moved on from his Aug-3 Federal election prediction though. I gather we won’t hear about it again.
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The smart money is on “Badthinker” to go with a September election date soon. My guess he will make that claim sometime within the next two weeks.
Crazy stupid is a lot more predictable than crazy smart. Hence it is far easier to predict what Trump or Badthinker will do next than Elon Musk.
Cat
“ You reckon paying for the subs is a raw deal! It’s as nothing compared to 80 years to pay for Dutton’s nuclear reactors! By which time we’ll need the subs because we’ll all be living under water! ”
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Yes the nuclear power idea of Proton Pete is a brain-snap of epic proportions. Its nuts.
Lordbain says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:32 pm
nadia, if the Greens drop below 10 ill blame you
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No, don’t do that. Don’t want to end up on your baddies list.
They’ll be fine. Expect them to start breaching that 15% national polling mark within the next few months. It’s coming.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 10:11 pm
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The smart money is on “Badthinker” to go with a September election date soon. My guess he will make that claim sometime within the next two weeks.
Crazy stupid is a lot more predictable than crazy smart. Hence it is far easier to predict what Trump or Badthinker will do next than Elon Musk.
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Righteo – well perhaps we’ll just see what badthinker comes up with next rather than speculating on what he may post. I remember him banging on about Aug-3. He needs to backtrack/own up and then I’m sure the site will forget & move on.
Per the crazy stupid/Trump/Musk sentence – sorry, word salad. I don’t understand.
Nadia, if the greens don’t breach the 15 percent mark in the time period I will now blame… Lars 🙂
nadia88says:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 10:28 pm
Entropysays:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 10:11 pm
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The smart money is on “Badthinker” to go with a September election date soon. My guess he will make that claim sometime within the next two weeks.
Crazy stupid is a lot more predictable than crazy smart. Hence it is far easier to predict what Trump or Badthinker will do next than Elon Musk.
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Righteo – well perhaps we’ll just see what badthinker comes up with next rather than speculating on what he may post. I remember him banging on about Aug-3. He needs to backtrack/own up and then I’m sure the site will forget & move on.
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Considering the actual election is a lock for May 2025. The only real election speculation is from those predicting wrong dates.
Nadia88 is
.
optimistic about 15% Greens by years end. Yeah sure, good luck with that and you’re December election. Tick tick tick toc.