Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Hi BK! *waves*

    There have been a few teething troubles. The FTTP NBN box had been tampered with and there was no power supply. So, until I could get an NBN technician out to replace the hardware we ‘only’ had 4G. We still don’t have fast internet because I have to wait until next Tuesday for the Telstra technician to come out and marry the NBN to Telstra (so many siloes these days!). Also, the coaxial cable connection to the TV is faulty, so we can’t watch the Olympics until a TV technician comes out this afternoon and hopefully that is fixed easily. #fingerscrossed

    Other than that it’s just the normal stuff of unpacking boxes and garbage bags full of stuff and finding places for it all to go. 🙂

  2. Well color me shocked.. Labor will be sanctioning named Israelis and 1 Israeli youth group based on the ICJ finding…

  3. Sandman at 11:43 pm
    There has never been an Australian Federal election between Nov 17th and February 4th except one when Hawkey went super early and he got a slap for it
    Except for 1975, 1977,1972, 1949 and probably a whole lot more. Hawke increased the Parliament by 23, won 7. Hardly a slap.
    It’s okay to do a search when you haven’t got a clue, you know?

  4. citizen @ #703 Thursday, July 25th, 2024 – 8:23 am

    The MSM obsession with tests for Labor leaders:

    Premier has passed one big political test, now he faces another
    Alexandra Smith
    State Political Editor
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-has-passed-one-big-political-test-now-he-faces-another-20240724-p5jw4n.html

    Maybe because Liberals skate by with few to no policies they can’t be tested on them? And even when they do have a policy, such as Dodgy Dutton’s nuclear policy, and they ARE tested on it, they just blow it off and say they don’t agree with the assessment. 😐

  5. The Productivity Commission has warned Labor’s Made in Australia plan risks evolving into protectionism, undermining decades of reform aimed at creating a vibrant economy, reports Michael Read.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-s-green-subsidies-a-risk-to-living-standards-pc-20240723-p5jvv5

    What’s wrong with protecting jobs and good employment conditions for your citizens …?

    Honestly, the extreme global capitalist multinationals who drain the life out of the majority of the human race can GAGFed !

  6. Covid me thinks was the tipping point China is finished as far as the crazy leg up it was given by the West.

    China a communist dictatorship showed its hand during covid and the precovid version of Globalisation is being remade as we speak.

    Mind you AI is going to smash the jobs in China sent by the west anyway.Suffer China!

  7. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. There is some good meaty stuff on needed economic and industry reforms needed.

    The multiple articles calling for the end of privatization now are correct. How times have changed.

    In the late 1990s and again in the early 2000s as a public servant I was on task groups that reviewed the evidence for benefits from private road and rail projects elsewhere. We consistently found public ownership was better. That advice got ignored by both State Labor and Federal Liberal governments.

  8. Yes Steve. I was lazy relying on the memory of an older man’s brain (mine) about election date history and made a fool of myself. Next time I’ll do some refresher research and try to avoid similar mistakes before reacting to the baiting nonsense that pops up on PB too often. I still think Labor could and should go full term or March next year.

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 7:57 am
    Hi BK! *waves*

    There have been a few teething troubles. The FTTP NBN box had been tampered with and there was no power supply.

    Welcome back C@t
    We’ve just moved to a new development and although NBN itself has been great, we chose Aussie Broadband as our provider who , due to inability to work to instructions, have taken 3 weeks to get a modem to us (wrong address/incorrect address used) and opaque invoicing issues being chief among their sins.
    And let’s not mention ACTEWAGL who can’t seem to get our address correctly aligned with the electricity meter number…I will never get back the hours spent on the phone with both these two business’.

  10. Natural monopolies shouldn’t be in private hands, but Labor sold them off in a flash, claimed they were being good little free marketeers.
    I reckon NACC should be looking at that stuff.
    =======================================
    On elections, there’s never a good time, but as the Higgins situation unravels, those 675,000 voters who decided the L-NP brand was no good anymore in ’22, they might be having 2nd thoughts?
    Anyone interested in a Chateau in a region of France so remote news of the Revolution hasn’t reached there yet, now’s your chance.

  11. Badthinker yes I should have done a search beforehand before posting- fair call. Yes Hawke gained 7 in 1984 in December but you didn’t mention the Peacock winning back 16 seats that year. I wonder why.

  12. Problem Labor has is there was never a good reason to dump the Morrison Government.
    Labor had no coherent economic policies [as usual], it was all
    Look over there!
    That’s unfair!
    It’s time!
    Jump on the bandwagon [to nowhere]!
    My Mommy/Granma was a victim! [Now it’s get square time!]
    With the emergence of Harris Labor could be tempted to wait until December, but that’s a big risk if she crashes and burns, imo.

  13. So you still reckon on an election this year bad. Why would Harris crashing in the US trigger Albo visiting the GG? He’d have to be nuts to go for December if cost of living is going to be key issue next time around. I can’t see the logic.

  14. Badthinker,
    You’re hanging it all out there which is good for democracy.

    However you only get one vote. It obvious there are many paths to travel to find the place to land on.

    How many of the 20% undecided across Australia (maybe) are going to land on Dutton, nuclear, demeaning women’s rights, environmental negatively and fighting China, (among other things) ?

    I’m not sure that Dutton has gained enough momentum to get across the line at whenever the next election is held.

  15. So you still reckon on an election this year bad. Why would Harris crashing in the US trigger Albo visiting the GG?
    Pretending to be obtuse?
    I hadn’t picked that up about your comments before, now that I have, i’ll delete my reply to you at 9:27 am and rate your future responses to me as Entropy Level.

  16. Badthinker, 9.21am,
    [Problem Labor has is there was never a good reason to dump the Morrison Government.]

    Delusional at best, with a side of nuclear and sprinkled with racism and refugees, is not enough to get the LNP across the line.

    And that’s even with the help of the sunset media.

  17. Hate to break it to you Bad but voters in 19 seats found a reason to ditch Morrison in 2022. Maybe they were obtuse too ?

  18. Some here calling for a March 2025 election.

    There is a WA state election to be held on March 8th.

    So I am tipping no March federal poll and a May election.

  19. Badthinker: “Problem Labor has is there was never a good reason to dump the Morrison Government.”

    that is, quite possibly, the single dumbest statement ever made on PB………

    I suspect the character limit in the comment box wouldn’t allow one to list all of the reasons that the Morrison government deserved to be dumped for

    Jesus H Christ!

  20. It seems that Labor is doing the re-set for going into the election in around May 2025.

    There are three signs:

    1. A reshuffle.
    2. Cutting its legislative ambitions.

    (What’s the point with the Thug and his Little Helper delaying and blocking everything. Anything Labor proposes is getting the four step treatment from the dynamic duo:
    a. Any Bill is met with howls of derision, demands and stunts.
    b. Any Bill is then delayed.
    c. Some Bills are blocked altogether.
    d. Anything that does get past is then denounced as not good enough by the Greens and dangerous and destructive by Dutton – except for any amendments at the margins which are duly claimed as the MAIN outcome of the whole kabuki theater.
    e. complaints about things not happening fast enough. (I particularly admire the gall of this one. Except that there are domestic violence victims out there right now who might just have had housing to go to but for the bastardy of Bandt&Co.

    One of the victims of this process was the reform of the EPBC Act.

    Currently being held up or blocked altogether by Thug and his enabler the Bandicoot: religious discrimination reform, taxation of superannuation accounts more than $3 million, political donations reform, NDIS reform and the supply of social housing.

    Soooooooooo destructive! Currently being held up or blocked altogether by Thug and his little mate: religious discrimination reform, taxation of superannuantion accounts more than $3 million, political donations reform, NDIS reform and the supply of social housing.

    In other words, any intiative by Lab

    3. Sorting budget and spending for the run into the election.

  21. LOL.

    ‘Ecotourism’ has a jaded faded air about. Apart from the marketing, it is a marginal activity given the scale of the global tourism smash on biodiversity.

    So, it is time for ‘regenerative tourism’.

    It looks like the latest attempt by tourism to greenwash one of the most globally destructive industries.

    As noted previously, if the Federal Government wants a very quick housing fix, reduction in CO2 emissions, immediate positive impact on biodiversity, and the freeing up of a substantial workforce then putting a cap on o/s tourist numbers would do all four. Just Like That.

  22. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/21/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-freshwater-strategy-51-49-to-coalition-open-thread/comment-page-15/#comment-4335379

    I’ll leave mishandled risks/ threats for another time. It was time for them to go, given Tonicchio, Fizza, PM+ all had a go.
    Hmmm, I can think of my policy areas where the PM+ to 2022, despite all them ministries, didn’t make the grade.
    Opportunity.
    Cost of living.
    Education.
    Environment.
    Healthcare.
    Human Rights.
    Infrastructure (Comms, energy, housing, transport, water).
    Public safety and national security …

  23. Yep Bob, there is that WA election. Might give some hints about what is to come in Hasluck Swan Tangney Pearce and Bulwinkel. WA gave Labor majority Govt in 2022. Will WA be where we wait to see how minority the expected Labor minority Govt be after 2025?

  24. BW, it would be nice if the government HAD any legislative ambitions……….

    Pretty much the same sitting schedule as the last year of the Morrison government, who you wouldn’t exactly accuse of passing too much legislation

    Gillard passed WAY more legislation, and in a minority parliament

    i would love to see some ambition from the government, but it’s more or less passed most of the Liberal Party’s policy platform so seems to be running out of things to do……..

    From the TGA blog, Max C-M – hard to disagree with this:

    “In a post to X, Chandler-Mather said the standing ovation is a “reminder that the entire US establishment enthusiastically supports the massacre in Gaza.”

    Yet Labor wants to tie [Australia] to the hip of the United States.

    Iraq, Afghanistan and now Gaza. How many times does the United States have to lurch into/back murderous, destructive invasions that cause unimaginable harm, before Labor and the Liberals decide to stop acting as lackeys for US foreign policy … It makes the world less safe and leaves a dark moral stain on our country.

  25. $100 million for the broadcast rights, a below inflation pay rise, and the staff are refusing to broadcast the…
    … could not happen to a nicer bunch of plutocrats.

  26. ‘PageBoi says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 10:04 am

    BW, it would be nice if the government HAD any legislative ambitions……….
    …’
    ——————-
    This is a standard Greens lie, repeated with Goebbelsian fervour. Only an innumerate Greens would describe the reform of a $40 billion a year program as being ‘nothing’. It IS nothing ATM because it is being held up by the Destructo Duo.

    How are the Greens coming along with their costings and budgeting for the half a million jobs they have promised to destroy along with the $300 billion that will disappear from the national accounts?

    It is a bit rich that these same hypocrites criticize Dutton for not publishing HIS energy plans!

    The only Federal Government to deliver anything substantive on climate action is Labor. That is despite Dutton. That is despite Bandt.

    We are going to get to 43/30 on the way to Zero Net Fifty.

  27. Hey BW, you going to apologize about lying about Page yesterday?

    What about the NACC; when will you admit that the NACC is wet lettuce nonsense introduced by Labor and the Coalition working together to ensure its merely a wasteful paper tiger?

    What about the expansion of gas fields and coal mines in direct contradiction of their emissions plans.

    What about weak environmental planning laws?

    When will you explain why banning building in flood prone areas is bad?

    It goes on and on, and yet you try and deflect everytime…

  28. The over heightened rhetoric on here of recent days suggests it’s dawning on the super fans that Albo is in a losing position.

    It’s really a very febrile mood.

    That end of term dilemma do we wait for things to change and be accused of hanging on or do we go now ?

    Interesting fact 20% of Melb cbd office space is vacant – pointer of more economic trouble ahead. Quarterly cpi next wed also an important marker.

  29. When will you explain why banning building in flood prone areas is bad?

    The Greens only want to ban buildings in built up areas that have been there for 100+ years.
    The effect of that being adopted is to reduce the value of housing there to zero.
    At the moment it’s just [mostly light industrial] Rocklea, where poor people live anyway.
    [nearby suburban] Graceville, Corinda, Sherwood, Tennyson, Yeerongpilly, Fig Tree Pocket all qualify as flood prone too.
    I’d say once an area is declared flood prone/no building, the next logical step is to remove services/utilities.

  30. Linda Burney, the Minister for Indigenous Australians and first Aboriginal woman in the lower house, will retire from politics at the next election.
    Skills and Training Minister Brendan O’Connor, who also sits in cabinet, will join Ms Burney to retire a the end of this term of government.
    The pair will step down from their positions as ministers immediately, prompting a ministry refresh.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-25/linda-burney-oconnor-retires-albanese-ministry-reshuffle/104140104

  31. Linda Burnie and Brendan O’Connor pull the pin so yep we will get a cabinet reshuffle on Sunday. What Albanese does with his cabinet should be interesting so too the loons saying this means Albo is going to the GG next.

  32. Linda Burnie and Brendan O’Connor pull the pin so yep we will get a cabinet reshuffle on Sunday. What Albanese does with his cabinet should be interesting so too the loons saying this means Albo is going to the GG next despite Albanese saying he wants to go full term in the same press conference like Howard did.

  33. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 10:40 am
    The over heightened rhetoric on here of recent days suggests it’s dawning on the super fans that Albo is in a losing position.
    ————————-
    If a likely federal Labor 2nd term Majority government is a losing position , what is a winning position

  34. Late breaking Lehrmann:

    Until this week, Mr Lehrmann was expected to represent himself in the Federal Court today, in what was the first case management hearing of his appeal.

    But he did not appear, and was instead represented by criminal lawyer Zali Burrows.

    When asked outside court whether Mr Lehrmann had the funds to pay her, Ms Burrows told reporters, “have you asked him?”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-25/bruce-lehrmann-delay-pay-money-owed-network-ten-appeal/104138186
    Just a suspicion at this stage, but I’m thinking there may be a few regrets on the Labor side about the pursuit of Lehrmann?

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