Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. That ratio only applies during L-NP Governments.
    I’d say, once GST, Fuel Tax, Tobacco taxes, Alcohol Taxes, Medicare Levy and Income and Company Taxes are added up, Australia is the highest Taxing developed Country in the world.
    edit:
    i reckon if they call an election now and take a punt that Harris is still as popular at the end of August as she is now, they could get home with the loss of only 6 or 7 seats.

  2. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 4:37 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 4:34 pm

    We can ask Mr Bowe to facilitate the exchange of relevant details for payments via email. It’s not that difficult.
    =================================================

    For someone who often cries defamation when someone posts something they don’t like on this site. You now want Mr Bowe to start facilitating something that would be totally illegal unless he had a gambling licence. There is no way you can facilitate something like that legally on this site.

    Even if it isn’t illegal there is no way Mr Bowe wants this to become a political gambling site. Which he has to facilitate the bets for. Your bonkers if you think he does.

  3. PageBoi says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 1:13 pm

    the voice was ambitious, and to this nation’s great shame it failed

    Most Australians disagree with you so it is not this nation’s great shame.

  4. I always check my pay slip email.

    People who think workers don’t receive a tax slip ( email) or that they don’t check it just reveal how disconnected they are from the Australian workplace.
    Their opinions on other subjects should be viewed in that light.

  5. Lol@Fubar thought he was on a winner but it is not going to happen

    there is no point in wagering on something which is hypothetical

  6. People who think workers don’t receive a tax slip ( email) or that they don’t check it just reveal how disconnected they are from the Australian workplace.
    Construction workers on EBA sites don’t even know that RDOs are paid for by a deduction from their Net Pay, yet it’s there in black and white on their electronic Pay Slip.

  7. Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 4:58 pm
    People who think workers don’t receive a tax slip ( email) or that they don’t check it just reveal how disconnected they are from the Australian workplace.
    Construction workers on EBA sites don’t even know that RDOs are paid for by a deduction from their Net Pay, yet it’s there in black and white on their electronic Pay Slip.
    ===================================================

    That BS has already been called out. They get 26 days of paid leave. There is no deduction of net pay on those 26 days. Why do you keep spinning lies?

    “The union protects and improves Members’ wages and conditions. Our successful bargaining campaigns continue to deliver fair wages and better conditions like superannuation, site allowances, redundancy pay and income protection. In the year 2000 this branch of the CFMEU won the 36 hour week, giving workers 26 paid days off a year.”

    https://vic.cfmeu.org/wages#:~:text=Our%20successful%20bargaining%20campaigns%20continue,paid%20days%20off%20a%20year.

  8. What a glib piece of tripe…”People work 4 months for the government….”
    Where do you dig this guff up from BT?
    Some who come here say this is an echo-chamber, but on the basis of what some commentators come out with, I wonder we are even in the same universe let alone echo-chamber.

  9. Most wages employees will check their payslips religiously to check that loadings/OT and other allowances are paid correctly (and fair enough – mistakes do happen and sometimes items get left off) . It is only salaried staff whose pay only changes with a yearly review or job change who check less often. Whilst there are plenty who don’t understand their pay, there are those who don’t usually seem to be able to add two simple numbers together, that can calculate their pay correctly to 4 decimal places across a range of complex loadings and allowances.

  10. Tricotsays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:12 pm
    What a glib piece of tripe…”People work 4 months for the government….”
    Where do you dig this guff up from BT?
    =====================================================

    BT makes most of his crap up. Last night he was claiming there was a water mark from a 1841 flood on a pub which turns out was built in 1886. That’s the sort of compulsive liar we are dealing with here. I doubt he has ever seen a construction workers payslip, certainly not in the last 20 or so years. Yet he posts BS again claiming he has calculated their days off are unpaid.

  11. That said, I don’t blame Construction workers on EBA sites for not looking at their Electronic pay slips.
    Because, why would they want to be reminded that
    1/. They’ve got no choice of Super Fund
    2/. They’re making a substantial salary sacrifice into that fund whether they like it or not
    3/. Money to pay for their RDOs is deducted from their net pay and placed in a non interest bearing fund that they’ve got to apply to to be paid the accumulated RDOs.

  12. John Lyons on the ABC (regarding Netanyahus address in Washington); based on the best available evidence, the IDF has killed approx 5000 Hamas fighters… and in the process, has aided in the recruitment of an estimated 100k plus new recruits to Hamas. It also has the worst civilian to combatant death toll in recent human history, including the Syrian civil war.

    Me thinks Australias posture on Israel should not begin and end with a few individuals and a youth group…

  13. Damosays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 4:53 pm
    I always check my pay slip email.

    People who think workers don’t receive a tax slip ( email) or that they don’t check it just reveal how disconnected they are from the Australian workplace.
    Their opinions on other subjects should be viewed in that light.
    —————————–
    It doesn’t always happen but they all give you a yearly certificate.

  14. The reason the Voice did not get up – despite the chortle of the right – is that Dutton saw more value in being Dr No to damage Labor.
    Can’t wait for Dutton to propose a Referendum – on anything.
    As Abbott proved, a negative LOTO makes a shit poor PM. Dutton would even outdo Abbott in this regard.
    When Abbott was ousted a whole plane load of people on their way from Perth to Melbourne cheered the news when the cockpit put the news over to the passengers.
    When the national Liberal vote gets into somewhere near competitive in Victoria will be the time for Labor to take stock.
    As of now, Dutton is going backwards and the LNP have not made any real inroads on Labor for two years.
    Nothing is set in stone, but until Dutton actually shows some kind of leadership he will remain LOTO.
    That he is still there is more to do with the dearth of talent on the Opposition side than any other factor.

  15. Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:20 pm

    That said, I don’t blame Construction workers on EBA sites for not looking at their Electronic pay slips.
    ============================================

    Doubling down on BS doesn’t stop it being BS. Like your classic example below. What chance has someone who didn’t even know the CFMEU existed in the year 2000 have of knowing about workers pay rates? He obviously has no idea. Yet if you call him out he doubles down on his lies and abuses you. Like he did below in his post directed at me. Abusing me for saying CFMEU actually existed in 2000, even though it certainly did.

    Badthinkersays:
    Friday, July 19, 2024 at 2:02 pm

    CFMEU didn’t exist in 2000.
    Try doing a bit of research, or better still, have a clue about what you are gasbagging about.

  16. Over in the UK, a bit of an odd poll was released by Techne of Conservative Party Members on 5 leadership candidates that they were asked to rank, and the results are what percentage they would put in their top 4.

    The results are:
    Robert Jenrick – 55%
    Kemi Badenoch – 52%
    Tom Tugendhat – 52%
    Priti Patel – 47%
    Suella Braverman – 45%
    Don’t Know – 30%

    Not sure on the value of these results, but Conservative Leadership contests tend to be something of a circus.

  17. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/21/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-freshwater-strategy-51-49-to-coalition-open-thread/comment-page-18/#comment-4335651

    The VTP&E was subjected to a costly referendum, and it was rejected.
    Almost as if the gov was aware it was a vanity exercise of veigned importance.
    Then again centrist don’t seem to come with much flavor, as in neither progressive, nor conservative. Just another major party duopoly component.
    Anyway, I am seeing territory/ state/ local levels of gov moving on with truthtelling/ makarata, but it’ll be interesting if the gov after the next fed election will move on TRC/ treaty/ sovereignty/ reparations … after all Chucky III is here soon, and just got a UKP45M payrise, that and much more into a SWF would be a great start in all the Pommy Commonwealth of Nations, even former colonies.
    May be some Russian will want to buy a palace to go with a football club, or turn Buckingham Palace into a dormitory for pollyTICs away from home.
    It’s not like the royal haven’t got Clarendon, Windsor, Kensington , …
    Bring on a referendum on republic/ monarchy/ removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag!
    After all, the Australia Act(s) of 1986 supposedly made downunder independent from the empire on which the sun did set, Boer War to Brexit!

  18. Tricot says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:22 pm

    As Abbott proved, a negative LOTO makes a shit poor PM.

    Correlation is not causation. If he didn’t have Turnbull and the rest of the wets in Cabinet doing a shit job and the Senate blocking all his reforms it would have been a completely different story.

    Don’t let me ever hear the ALP claiming they have a mandate that the Senate should respect ever again.

    And the polling does not indicate that Dutton is going backwards.

  19. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:45 pm
    Tricot says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:22 pm

    As Abbott proved, a negative LOTO makes a shit poor PM.
    Correlation is not causation. If he didn’t have Turnbull and the rest of the wets in Cabinet doing a shit job and the Senate blocking all his reforms it would have been a completely different story.

    ————————————-
    The Abbott government did have a favourable senate ,
    Repeal of carbon pricing and Abbott reforms were passed

    Abbott was incompetent

  20. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:45 pm
    Tricot says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:22 pm

    As Abbott proved, a negative LOTO makes a shit poor PM.

    Correlation is not causation. If he didn’t have Turnbull and the rest of the wets in Cabinet doing a shit job and the Senate blocking all his reforms it would have been a completely different story.

    Don’t let me ever hear the ALP claiming they have a mandate that the Senate should respect ever again.
    ================================================

    Pretty sure the previous LNP Government pulled out that line far more than current Government does.

  21. Engineers Australia has put out a report on infrastructure funding in Australia. It is a problem but not in the way people might expect. Australian road infrastructure spending per capita is the highest in the OECD, and rail the second highest (only Switzerland is higher). Victoria is the highest spending state per capita.

    At the same time our projects, per km, are among the most expensive, with only USA, UK, Netherlands, NZ and Hungary (no corruption there either!) dearer. Even countries with quality high speed rail networks like France, Germany and Japan spend less overall both per capita and per km.

    Corruption. pork barrelling and poor planning all cost you money. We got the trifecta in Australia.
    https://createdigital.org.au/australian-investment-public-infrastructure/

    Interestingly we managed to waste an awful lot of money on infrastructure despite a shortage of engineers. So don’t blame us on this one.

    One more thing, at a time when there is both a shortage of engineers and builders, and a shortage of houses, we should not be building any new road projects unless they are essential. Hold the pork!

    One for Catherine King to ponder.

  22. Scott says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 4:57 pm

    “there is no point in wagering on something which is hypothetical”

    WTF? That’s exactly what wagers are made upon. #HeadDesk

  23. I Thought DUTTON can never be funny, but I am wrong. 🙂
    He makes good jokes about SMRs

    “I’m not interested in the fanatics:” Dutton responds to science academy’s report on nuclear SMRs

    https://reneweconomy-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/reneweconomy.com.au/im-not-interested-in-the-fanatics-dutton-responds-to-science-academys-report-on-nuclear-smrs/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17218943947406&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Freneweconomy.com.au%2Fim-not-interested-in-the-fanatics-dutton-responds-to-science-academys-report-on-nuclear-smrs%2F

    “Opposition leader Peter Dutton has dismissed a report on nuclear small modular reactors by the highly respected Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, saying the Coalition has consulted its own experts and it is not interested in the views of “fanatics.”

    ATSE on Wednesday described SMRs as a “chimera”, and said they were unlikely to be able to be built in Australia before the mid to late 2040s, more than a decade before the Coalition’s timeline of 2035.

    The report by ATSE is in line with other assessments by the CSIRO, the Australian Energy Regulator, the Australian Energy Market Operator, former chief scientist and virtually everyone in the energy industry.

    But Dutton dismissed it out of hand.

    “What this report shows is that the lights are going to go out, and that wind, in particular, is not reliable,” he told journalists in the Hunter Valley, not far from one of the sites identified by the Coalition to host a nuclear power plant, according to a transcript posted on his website.

    Actually, the ATSE report says nothing of the sort. It doesn’t address grid reliability problems, nor does it look at SMR costs or waste issues.

  24. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 6:06 pm
    Every major road project in Victoria is essential.
    ================================================

    Victoria is playing catch up on infrastructure. As do nothing Victorian LNP Governments like to do nothing the years they are in. The only thing Kennet wanted to build was a statue to himself. Which he couldn’t even deliver that it turns out. I think he did build a shed though.

  25. Ven

    Dutton is a liar.

    He is delaying the transition away from expensive fossil fuels.

    He works for the fossil fuel cartel vampires that are draining the life from civilisation.

  26. Federal Liberal party leader which did not surprised

    Lib/nats and non lib/nats voters knew Tony Abbott as prime minister was going to be a short stint and Malcolm Turnbull would challenge well before the federal Lib/nats government term was up

    Voters knew Malcolm Turnbull wouldnt be able to lead the way he wanted and it was only a matter of time till Turnbull tried to implement something he believed in but the lib/nats propaganda media units controlled the federal liberal party and Turnbull leadership was over

  27. I’d imagine roads and rail are more complex to build in Australia in that they need to be weatherproof from extreme conditions as well, but on the whole there probably is a lot of bloating of costs in there from excessive middle-management and such.

  28. bill says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 5:58 pm

    I am and a huge fan of the Bell Tower Times. Four Premierships and I was at one of them. My mood has little to do with their current level of performance. In 2012 we wooden spooned and then went on to win a premiership. As much as I love Kelly playing for us, the decision to sell the farm to get Kelly from Geelong was the wrong one. And our list management since then has been poor. Fortunately, those responsible for all of that have now been moved on and there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel – there always is. I take it from your attitude that you are a Dockers supporter, still dreaming of some silverware.

  29. Almost all journalists working for Nine Entertainment newspapers are sensationally going on strike on the eve of the 2024 Olympic Games opening ceremony, including 20 reporters on the ground in Paris.
    Staff at the network’s mastheads, including The Age, the Sydney Morning Herald, Australian Financial Review, WAtoday and Brisbane Times, have voted overwhelmingly in favour of strike action from Friday.
    It cames after union representatives and management failed to find a resolution with annual pay rates during crunch talks on Thursday, news.com.au has been told.

  30. The government has had a rough few weeks. Fatima Payman drowned out the stage 3 tax cuts coming in after literal years of media noise about them.

    Patricia Karvelas said on ABC that Albanese is considering quite a big cabinet reshuffle, beyond replacing the two retiring MPs. I think he’s happy with the path his govt is on and not hearing the public anger. Any savings people had in offset accounts and whatnot has well and truly dried up after 2+ years of high interest rates. Ultimately the state of the economy is always the #1 measure for voters despite it being largely out of the control of the govt of the day.

  31. Fubar
    Well, obviously correlation is not causation. However, putting Abbott’s woes down to Turnbull’s wetness I would wonder about as well.
    I know you get angry at times here with what you perceive to be the stupidity of some of us not seeing your point of view (last night a good example) but I am interested in just how much further to the right you would like the Liberal Party to be.
    I think the Tories in the UK have a problem sorting out this issue as well.
    The LNP can kiss government good-bye for awhile unless they can capture more in the centre, or is the swing to the right a way to go?

  32. > Australian road infrastructure spending per capita is the highest in the OECD,

    If you build homes and workplaces far apart you need a lot more transport infrastrcture per person.

  33. Kirsdarke says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 6:16 pm
    I’d imagine roads and rail are more complex to build in Australia in that they need to be weatherproof from extreme conditions as well, but on the whole there probably is a lot of bloating of costs in there from excessive middle-management and such.

    They might have missed it but we are a vary large continent with a very small population so the road/rail km to person ratio is pretty fucking big and therefore expensive.

    Our cost structure is not due to excessive middle management.

    “Labour costs, which are generally 45% of the cost of construction, have been rising as much as 5% per annum[23] over the past 15 years, despite (until very recently) low inflation and low general wage rises.”

    https://www.cis.org.au/publication/bungles-blowouts-and-boondoggles-why-australias-infrastructure-projects-cost-more-than-they-should/#:~:text=Labour%20costs%2C%20which%20are%20generally,and%20low%20general%20wage%20rises.

    On top of that the planning restrictions and interference from Local and State Governments and Enviro Lawfare impose significantly higher costs than in other international jurisdictions. The UK has exactly the same problems because our governmental system and unions are so similar.

  34. Fubar I was lucky enough to attend the 2018 GF. Of course you don’t get a countdown clock at the ground like you do on TV which made it fairly nerve-wracking. Don Sheed the boy from Kalgoorlie! We could get the wooden spoon for the next decade and I wouldn’t care.

  35. Tricot says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 6:21 pm
    Fubar
    Well, obviously correlation is not causation. However, putting Abbott’s woes down to Turnbull’s wetness I would wonder about as well.
    I know you get angry at times here with what you perceive to be the stupidity of some of us not seeing your point of view (last night a good example) but I am interested in just how much further to the right you would like the Liberal Party to be.
    I think the Tories in the UK have a problem sorting out this issue as well.
    The LNP can kiss government good-bye for awhile unless they can capture more in the centre, or is the swing to the right a way to go?

    The LNP doesn’t need to move right. It just needs to be true to the conservative roots of its members.

    The UK Tories lost so badly because they didn’t act like Conservatives and they didn’t do what they promised that they would do. The loss is exacerbated by the first past the post system which made the lost votes to Reform have a significantly oversized negative impact.

    It has been a constant meme on this thread for decades – the LNP will never win being too far right – But Howard won multiple elections, Abbott won, Morrison won. The Queensland LNP are about to have another mammoth win and they are hardly soaking wet lefties of the conservatives and the NT CLP look like they’ll get up too. Conservatives have a good message, it just needs to be well delivered at the right time.

  36. Kirsdarke

    “I’d imagine roads and rail are more complex to build in Australia in that they need to be weatherproof from extreme conditions as well, but on the whole there probably is a lot of bloating of costs in there from excessive middle-management and such.”
    ————————————————-
    Not really. In climatic terms road building does cost more in places like coastal Qld due and NW WA to the greater flood inundation risk and heat. But building roads in southern states like NSW, SA and Victoria which have a Mediterranean climate is no different to France or Italy, where high quality work is done for much less.

    In tunnel projects the weather makes almost no difference. Tunnel costs depend on geology. Though good planning of tunnels includes drilling test bore holes to eliminate that risk. Failing to do so is bad planning.

    Melbourne has poor geology for tunneling (soft clay, high water table) so there is some excuse for the Melbourne rail tunnels being expensive. Sydney sandstone is an almost perfect tunneling material (not too hard, not too soft) so there is no technical reason why projects like WestConnex are so costly.

    Australian infrastructure costs are high, and there is no credible technical reason to deny it. Sydney metro rail projects cost more per km than TGV lines in France.

  37. “Marles should be shuffled out of Defence.”
    ———————————–

    That would be a financial disaster for the British defence industry and employment in northern England.

  38. The eastern states media are seething that Reid is at west coast. Tim Watson asking a rambling leading question of Harley, “surely you must be homesick, it must be tough.” What a flog

  39. Sad to see Burney retiring at the next election. But I was at an event with her a couple weeks ago and thought she looked fantastic, much better than the last time we were at events together where I seriously worried for her health.

    Perhaps she’s just ready to retire. No doubt the Voice outcome was highly dispiriting and took its toll on all involved, including Burney.

  40. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 6:06 pm
    Every major road project in Victoria is essential.
    _____________________
    Does that include unsolicited proposals from tolling companies ?

  41. Shorten is fine. Giles should be a guaranteed out, if not for his close relationship with the PM.

    You would think Wong, Chalmers, Gallagher, Marles are all safe. Madeleine King has been good, Clare O’Neil has been fine really but doesn’t seem to have many friends. Chris Bowen won’t move. It’s that band of less prominent MPs like Jason Clare, Catherine King, Amanda Rishworth, Julie Collins, Ed Husic, Murray Watt, Plibersek even. He will probably shuffle them around a bit.

    Brendan O’Connor and Burney are both cabinet ministers, leaving some vacancies. Would be nice to see Anne Aly enter the cabinet. Pat Conroy would have a strong case off the back of his work in the pacific and defence industry.

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