Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Voters could be wary of independents / minor parties getting control
    They helped the federal lib/nats to get rid of carbon pricing , against climate change and medivac , introduced harsher mutual obligations , introduced federal lib/nats revenge authority such as ABCC and ROC
    and stage 3 tax cuts

    also helped the federal lib/nats in stopping wage rises and cutting penalty rates

  2. So massive tax cuts get ya the grand sugar hit of +1 in ya primary labor.

    Look at what’s coming down the pipe maybe an interest rate increase,Muslim voice party and industrial relations laws coming into force in a few weeks..

    Then there is the unpopular leader,failure to control immigration or inflation,unpopular Shorten all over the media,dumb and dumber leftie immigration ministers,no aboriginal crime policy etc etc.

    Google by the way is only spending 10o million plus this year on online Aussie media access so it’s AI can practice/ train on Aus media content.That will end soon.

  3. CNN reports that its ‘poll of polls’ of Kamala Harris against Donald Trump ‘finds a close race and no clear leader’.

  4. U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision on Sunday to drop his reelection bid and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the Democratic candidate leaves Harris with a major, immediate decision: whom to pick as her running mate.
    These are some of the top people being discussed, provided they don’t seek the presidential nomination themselves, according to people familiar with internal policy discussions.
    ANDY BESHEAR, GOVERNOR, KENTUCKY
    Democratic Governor Andy Beshear has carved a successful political career in a heavily Republican state that voted for Republican Donald Trump by a margin of more than 25 percentage points in 2020. Beshear has touted his record of bringing jobs to Kentucky, supporting public education and expanding healthcare access. As governor, he has vetoed legislation banning abortions and gender-affirming care for transgender youth, although the vetoes were overridden by the Republican-dominated legislature.
    PETE BUTTIGIEG, U.S. SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION
    U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg built a strong fan base among Democratic Party voters during his 2020 primary run against both Biden and Harris, winning the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus. Seen as a polished defender of Biden policies, Buttigieg later endorsed Biden and was picked to join the incoming administration’s Cabinet in 2021. The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor also has deep ties in Michigan, a critical state for Democrats in November.
    ROY COOPER, GOVERNOR, NORTH CAROLINA
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has won praise from Democrats for his strong focus on economic development and his ability to win relatively strong approval ratings in a politically competitive state that leans Republican and voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
    MARK KELLY, U.S. SENATOR, ARIZONA
    U.S. Senator Mark Kelly is well liked among Democratic Party elites for striking a relatively moderate tone in a hotly contested state that traditionally has favored Republicans, but which Biden won in 2020. A former U.S. Navy captain and astronaut, Kelly is also the husband of former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, who was seriously wounded in a 2011 shooting. Gun violence is a major campaign issue for Democrats.
    JOSH SHAPIRO, GOVERNOR, PENNSYLVANIA
    Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s governor, took office just last year but is already seen as a rising star for the party nationally. Trained as a lawyer, Shapiro served as the state’s attorney general, a legal background that is similar to Harris’ own as a prosecutor. He has a long history of winning elections against Republicans in a state that Democrats believe they must win to secure the election in November.
    J.B. PRITZKER
    Billionaire Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has proven a major force in the party, tapping his own financial resources linked to Hyatt Hotels (H.N) to help Biden’s campaign effort and to stand up the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month. While Illinois leans heavily Democratic, neighboring Wisconsin is one of the biggest prizes in the 2024 election.
    GRETCHEN WHITMER, GOVERNOR, MICHIGAN
    Governor Gretchen Whitmer has built a strong base in the closely contested state of Michigan, running on a platform of straight talk and kitchen-table issues. She attracted Biden’s attention in 2020, being vetted as a possible running mate before Biden picked Harris. She was a top supporter of and spokesperson for Biden’s reelection bid.
    A Harris-Whitmer ticket would be the first all-woman ticket for a major U.S. political party – a potential bonus in an election where women’s reproductive rights are a top issue.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-vice-president-top-names-include-beshear-buttigieg-2024-07-21/

  5. Result!

    Pity that Harris will likely just be ‘anointed’ – it allows the Repugs to triangulate with the Bernie Bros (aka folk just like lordbain and Nicholas) to rant against the Democrat ‘establishment’ and hence depress the democrat vote in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. … but hey, once a trot … always a trot.

    Also, trots aside, IMO Harris would have more authority and campaign momentum if she won the nominee in a genuinely open and fair fight over the next 4 weeks. … and if she lost the contest the winner would have momentum going into the campaign season proper. As an aside, I dont think campaign finances would be a problem. There is only $81 million in the joint Biden-Harris campaign account. The DNC holds close to a quarter of a billion and ultimately most off that $81 million would flow into the nominees account. Moreover, if the convention selects the candidate, but that candidate only officially accepts the nomination in September, they could could to a big one month of fundraising before going onto public funding thereafter.

  6. Griffsays:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 6:00 am
    goll says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 12:16 am
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, July 21, 2024 at 9:56 pm
    [So in summary minority govt is on the cards – its just how much of a minority govt that is in question. Basically about a 1.5% swing on Newspoll and worse under the other polls. Labor primary 33 going up 1 was a surprise in Newspoll.]

    [Just a negroni or two in it !]

    _________

    [A slight contrast to what Dr Kevin Bonham said on Twitter “No force on earth will make the media shut up about impending minority government but in my model off this Newspoll Labor wins a median 76.3 seats.”]

    Absolutely agree with you Griff.
    My comment about Lars and his polling summation and a couple Negronis was somewhat facetious!

    Lars has a problems both pouring over the polling and the pouring of Negronis.
    Very heavy with the “compari” if you don’t mind!

  7. Lordbain
    I didn’t know the Greens had been compared to Hitler, you’d have to enlighten me on that.
    A foretaste of what they’d cop all the time should their usefulness to the powers that be diminish.
    I wish the ALP were doing more on some of the “progressive” issues such as climate change but that’s the way to electoral oblivion.

  8. AE, friendly reminder that more “Bernie bros” swung behind Clinton in 2016 then Clinton supporters to Obama in 2008, and Clinton supporters to biden in 2020.

    Might be time to pretend Bernie bros are the problem, especially considering sanders and the progressive wing supported biden to the final minute.

    But hey, what ever supports the narrative;)

  9. Timothy Snyder with an essay on “BothSidesism” as the ruling philosophy in the media.
    Comment – not in Australia – “BothSidesism” only happens in the ABC- when Labor is in power!

    If Coalition is in power -no “BothSidesism”
    No “BothSidesism” for Murdoch, NineFax, or Sevenwest at any time!

    https://snyder.substack.com/p/both-sides

  10. Lordbain
    My near complete incompetence with digital technology prevents me from reading the Oz piece you quote but I’ll take your word for it. And the Oz, admittedly, has a history of going hard on the Greens. Once in a while. But picking one or two pieces as examples doesn’t alter the fact that overall the Greens get an easy ride.
    Out today.

  11. Lordbain 8.21am
    [The idea that the greens are protected from media time is ridiculous…]

    You’re right, the Greens, under the leadership of Mr Bandt are tying their own shoelaces” badly.

  12. Well, this is another sad day for democracy during this POTUS race.

    The first was the attempted assassination of Trump.

    The second was the MSM giving Trump a free pass on his progressive dementia, let alone his malignant narcissism, while destroying Biden for much, much less by way of cognitive decline. Pathetic editorial management. Pathetic journalism. Just pathetic.

    It pays to own the MSM! I trust all the Far Lefties who were sucked in by the MSM to join the conga line helping to tear down Biden get what they think they are going to get.

    As for all the Far Righties who joined the MSM conga line to tear Biden I hope you don’t get what you thought you were getting.

    History is going to be much, much kinder to the Biden presidency than the madness of the times suggests.

    Trump? At best a Hitler lite, a Kimmie wannabe without the balls. At worst a world trashed beyond our current comprehension.

    Enjoy!

  13. Pied piper 7.42am
    [Look at what’s coming down the pipe]

    Everyone is subjected to the “the pipe” from sun up till sundown in various mediums and from various sources however the long term trends in the polling indicate it is “addictive” for a few and not even acknowledged by the majority.

  14. Morning all. Its a significant day. I’ll save my thoughts on Biden for the other thread.

    Thanks for the roundup BK. Labor obviously needs to forget the polls and focus on the governing. The polls are within MOE of each other, so I do not see a contradiction in them.

    Cost of living is still the primary issue. Unfortunately the CFMEU scandal contributes to the cost of living via inflated building costs.

    Labor has to deal with the CFMEU, and be seen to do so. Combined with the relative failure of Federal Labor’s watered down NACC, Labor’s inability to fight corruption is a bad look to say the least.

  15. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%,
    ———————————–
    AEC should be stopping this
    Case of voters being electoral misled they think Jacinta Price because she is a country liberal party member she is in the federal liberal party
    When she is a federal national party member

  16. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggested that Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance was controlled by the CIA after Donald Trump selected him as his running mate.
    “On the Republican side, President [Trump] promised the last time around that he was going to drain the swamp, but instead, he came in, and he appointed a pharmaceutical lobbyist and a CEO to run HHS, Verizon lobbyists to run the FCC, a Goldman Sachs CEO to run the Treasury Department, an oil lobbyist to run the Interior Department, a coal lobbyist to run the Environmental Protection Agency, and so on.” “And only today, President Trump has announced that in his new administration, should he win this election, that Jamie Dimon will be his choice as Commerce Secretary, and that Larry Fink, the director of BlackRock, will run the Treasury Department,” he noted. This is the swamp. These are swamp creatures.” Kennedy also took a shot at Vance. “And his pick as vice president is a salute to the CIA and to the intelligence community and to the military-industrial complex,” he insisted. “Their gravy train is going to continue.”

  17. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 8:40 am
    [goll, would you like to give examples of the Greens badly tying their shoelaces?]

    What I will give you is the record of the Greens in the ACT, in government, working with Labor, to achieve mostly good outcomes and not tripping over their shoelaces.

    The Federal Greens, with Bandt as leader are beset with “I wanna be significant” moments which unfortunately has left many with a Green bent, confused, irritated and “anyone but the Greens”.

    The Greens appearing and behaving “too big for your boots” with untied laces is restricting Federal Labor, legislation, progressive Green issues and the task of keeping the “Neanderthals” away from the government benches.

    Bandt needs the “hissy fits” to placate the multi dysfunctional personalities of the broad spectre of Greens and is failing miserably.

    The latest Green imbroglio involving the “Muslim vote, the outer suburbs and Gaza all exemplify the confusion generated by the Greens.

    Labor policy and decision making may not be the Greens preferred direction but to seemingly “declare war” on Labor diminishes the potential progress of the Greens.

  18. Thanks for featuring that story on elder abuse BK. My sister works in aged care and tells me it is much more prevalent than I thought. What sort of person takes advantage of their own relatives who are the main perpetrators she says. I have a word for it but I can’t use it in a lady’s presence

  19. goll, I asked for examples, not a hissy fit of someone complaining because the Greens wont support (without amendments) policies they disagree with.

    Also how are the Greens involved in the Muslim Vote party? It was a Labor senator, following Labor policy, who went against the Labor party in the Senate, and who left the Labor party.

    Not sure how the Greens fit in…

    Also as a citizen of the ACT, I am well aware of the territory greens track record thank you 🙂

    Also “anyone but the Greens” must be why the Greens are plummeting in the polling… oh wait, their polling is stable 🙂

  20. Makes you wonder what’s going on in the Coalition room when a Jacinta Price gets the second choice nod in a leadership poll. Pretty telling of the lack of options when 2 females rate higher than some of the blokes in a Party rife with maudlin masculinity.

  21. Sandman
    ‘Makes you wonder what’s going on in the Coalition room when a Jacinta Price gets the second choice nod in a leadership poll. Pretty telling of the lack of options when 2 females rate higher than some of the blokes in a Party rife with maudlin masculinity’.

    Well when you look around the Coalition caucus you are hardly over run with talent and electoral magnetism. Taylor looks like he’s selling snake oil, then there’s Cash, Birmingham, Ley, Patterson and who could forget Tehan who reminds me of that old joke about a constipated mathematician.

  22. And yet newspoll is 51-49. If the liberal party is so bereft why is Labor not doing better in the polls ?

  23. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 9:35 am
    [goll, I asked for examples, not a hissy fit of someone complaining because the Greens wont support (without amendments) policies they disagree with.]

    [Also how are the Greens involved in the Muslim Vote party? It was a Labor senator, following Labor policy, who went against the Labor party in the Senate, and who left the Labor party.]

    [Not sure how the Greens fit in…]

    [Also as a citizen of the ACT, I am well aware of the territory greens track record thank you ]

    [Also “anyone but the Greens” must be why the Greens are plummeting in the polling… oh wait, their polling is stable ]

    Lordbain, you have correctly addressed the reason “their polling is stable”.

    I was hoping you wouldn’t reply with “one of those” high pitched, blackboard scratching, indignant, “let’s make it worse” rants.
    But there you have it.
    (I was a Green before you could spell “inclusivity”.

  24. goll, I guarantee I was a Green before you.

    Me think this smells like the classic “I was x, but then they did 1 single thing I didn’t like, so i rethought my entire economic and world view” lines.

    So tell me; what Greens policies dont you like, and if its just “i dont like Bandt”, explain how politics as a popularity contest is in any way healthy 😉

  25. Nice don’t look here, look over there try Lars. I’m not buying unless or until the Coalition gets a 52-48 NEWSPOLL and someone can explain to me why a bunch of FEMALE Teals took out MALE Liberals in 2022 and why that won’t happen in Bradfeild, Wannon etc in 2025. Many women voters just don’t rate Liberal men. It’s not the only factor but a significant one when you remember the Teals ran on a platform explicitly championing women’s issues along with climate change etc. The Greens are no longer the only pro-women option now if you think Labor sux re women’s equality too. Get used to it, it’s not going away any time soon.

  26. UK cartoons and other miscellany

    Nick Newman

    Mac

    Peter Songi

    Dennis Goris

    Mike Seddon

    Tayler

    Paul North

    Garthtoons

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

    The Shovel
    “A 78-year-old man who confuses Barack Obama with Joe Biden, called his wife Mercedes rather than Melania, and thanked supporters for coming to a rally in South Dakota (he was in Iowa), is surprisingly still running for office.”

    Larry the Cat

    Joe Biden has taken a decision that he thinks is in the best interests of his party and his country. Trump supporters are going to find that concept very confusing.— Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) July 21, 2024

  27. This is obviously the quiet corner of PB today……
    For some of Labor’s critics, even if Labor were leading 55-45 at this point in the political cycle, they would be shouting about what a lousy lot Labor are.
    Have long held the view that even on the eve of an election campaign a party leading 52-48 can still lose. One has to see how quickly Dutton’s poison killed the Voice. At the start it looked as though there was enough support for the Yes vote to get up
    Not only did he kill this proposal but he has also ensured no government in the foreseeable future will try Constitution change.
    The dead hand of the conservatives says it all.

  28. Kamala Harris@KamalaHarris

    I prosecuted sex predators. Trump is one.
    I shut down for-profit scam colleges. He ran one.
    I held big banks accountable. He’s owned by them.
    I’m not just prepared to take on Trump, I’m prepared to beat him.

  29. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 10:43 am
    Sorry Sandman If you don’t understand. I don’t do explainer classes.

    Ok Lars try this then. Howard rated 51-49 for alot of his time as PM yet won in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004.

    Recent Newspolls –
    April 15 51-49
    May 18 52-48
    June 3 50-50
    June 24 51-49.

    Get the Coalition to 52-48 and then Labor has a problem. Till then, crickets.

  30. Tricot – The Voice went down easily because the “Yes” campaign was bizarrely bad. Normally if the opponents of a proposal are saying there is a lack of details, the proponents would give details. Instead, “Yes” tried to make fun of the argument.
    Dutton’s poison is not as toxic as you make out and more easily countered with facts than you make out.

  31. An update on the government’s so-called urgent care clinics

    we have used one previously when my wife had a bad cut that needed seeing to, turned up mid morning on a sunday, waited for maybe half an hour, then issue dealt with and on our way – quite good

    Yesterday I took myself in, as I’ve developed a nasty infected lump/ingrown hair/pimple/somethingorother on my inner thigh and it’s really painful to walk. Was sent away as I didn’t have an appointment! Huge wait in Emergency so I went home with it unsorted

    Called up again today about 10:30, no appointments available, and they can’t book in advance for future dates so told to call back next morning

    So much for this ‘game changing’ service, and I’m also really pissed of that it seems there was no publicity of the change from a walk-in to appointment model. Pretty major fail by federla health department and healthscope or whoever they outsourced it to. Yes now that I’ve checked the website has been updated, but when the clinics launched they were sold as being for walk-ins

    would appear to be yet another failed/not sufficient labor health initiative.

    Still can’t get a bulk billed GP appointment without a concession card in my area either

    I’m actually really disappointed, after our first visit to urgent care I thought it was one of the things the ALP had done well – but of course I spoke too soon

    (PS of course it would be worse under the liberals)

  32. Sandman , you know it has been 17 years since Howard left the Lodge.

    Perhaps it was a defining experience for you but the world and Australia has changed considerably since then.

    There has been 6 failed PM’s since.

  33. PageBoi, we’ve used the new urgent care clinic in Hobart 4 times now. So much better than ED. No druggies for start. Wait times in 10s of minutes rather than multiples of hours.

  34. Simon Holmes à Court

    first signs dutton+gina's plan is working:https://t.co/GSdZ6L1Xhu— simon holmes à court (@simonahac) July 22, 2024

    This is one reason for Labor going to an election before the end of this year.

    Dutton is doing enormous damage to investor confidence, limiting investment in renewables even from opposition.

    At the moment, Dutton could stop the renewable transition in its tracks, if he becomes the next PM. As well as being a tragedy for the environment, it will make Australia an economic backwater, eking out the last few years of cola and gas before they become stranded assets.

    And if Dutton is going to be our next PM, perhaps we need to know sooner rather than later.

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