Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Centresays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 9:01 pm
    Entropy, if you want to call information from The Guardian (left-wing publication) as garbage, then suit yourself!
    ==============================================

    I want to call what you post anti-science climate denying garbage. Though i have no interest in having a discussion on climate change. With someone who seems to believe a car salesman’s opinion is somehow relevant to the science of climate change. Anyway i’ve wasted far to much time with anti-science ignoramuses tonight. So will now stop replying to them.

  2. William Bowe says:

    This would not appear to be true.
    You are correct, William.
    It was Lucianne Goldberg, Linda Tripp’s agent.
    Goldberg also spied on the Humphrey and McGovern campaigns for Nixon dirty tricks maestro Murray Chotiner

    Born Lucianne Steinberger in 1935, Goldberg grew up outside Washington, where her father worked as a government physicist. She wrote a gossip column for the local paper and worked for Presidents Kennedy and Johnson. (Of L.B.J., she told PEOPLE in 1992, “He used to twist your nipple in the elevator and think it was a sexy move.”)

    https://time.com/archive/6732185/clintons-crisis-lucianne-goldberg-in-pursuit-of-clinton/

  3. That’s right.
    I read my version around the time of the impeachment, years after Goldberg’s 1992 People story, which I was unaware of until 5 minutes ago.
    Guessing that what I read was an interview with Lucianne Goldberg re Linda Tripp and Goldberg expanded on the lift encounter with Johnson.
    Goldberg was pretty well known in 1998, i’d forgotten her in the meantime and confused her story with Linda Tripp’s.

  4. The other politician young women avoided getting into a lift with was Vince Gair when he was ambassador to Ireland. His ADB entry doesn’t mention the lift but includes his proclivities among the several reasons he was recalled.

    https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/gair-vincent-clare-vince-10267

    Below is an Irish Newspaper account of the Night of the Long Prawns and other repercussions of the Gair Affair. Probably only for aficionados but the Examiner describes Gair’s appointment as GUBU -grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented, often used in Ireland to describe any political scandal after the phrase was used by Taoiseach Haughey trying to defuse the claims that eventually led to his disgrace.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-10097999.html

  5. William Bowesays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 9:15 pm
    The story seemed to acquire a bit of colour between Goldberg’s telling of it and your own.
    =================================================

    Also a lot of it is still BS. Goldberg worked for Nixon and made up dirty stories about Democrats. I can find no evidence for this part of Badthinkers statement: “worked for Presidents Kennedy and Johnson”. The important fact being she never worked for Johnson or had a job in the White House in 1968.

    “Goldberg said she had served on Kennedy’s White House staff, but according to The Washington Post, her name does not appear on any staff records. In response, she said she worked in the Old Executive Office Building doing opposition research, then worked out of the National Press Building in public relations.[6]”

    “When recruited, she was told President Nixon himself had approved the spying, which was to include traditional political intelligence and information on personal habits: “‘They were looking for really dirty stuff’, [she] said. ‘Who was sleeping with whom, what the Secret Service men were doing with the stewardesses, who was smoking pot on the plane – that sort of thing. I was told to send it all along.'”[11] Goldberg’s role as a reporter-spy came to light in the Watergate hearings that led to the resignation of Nixon.[14]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucianne_Goldberg

  6. Entropy

    Many people believe what they’re told when it comes to climate change. That’s fine, that’s their choice.

    But many people are starting to question the urgency of climate change, that car salesman is just one of many I have encountered with that view…

    Biden handing out 1,473 oil and gas licences (half the number handed out in the world and 83% of that handed out by all wealthy nations) in his term can’t think it’s an emergency!

  7. Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 9:21 pm
    That’s right.
    I read my version around the time of the impeachment, years after Goldberg’s 1992 People story, which I was unaware of until 5 minutes ago.
    Guessing that what I read was an interview with Lucianne Goldberg re Linda Tripp and Goldberg expanded on the lift encounter with Johnson.
    Goldberg was pretty well known in 1998, i’d forgotten her in the meantime and confused her story with Linda Tripp’s.
    ================================================

    Goldberg like Linda Tripp in your previous lie. Was not working in the White House in 1968. You are still making it all up to discredit LBJ. Whom you apparently have problem with for signing the 1964 civil rights act. If my reading of your original post on this is correct.

    Goldberg even in her fake claims. Only claimed to work for Kennedy not Johnson. So even she doesn’t appear to be claiming to be working at the Johnson White House in 1968.

  8. An absolutely wonderful, highly informative, and hard to put down PhD thesis on R. John Williams. I heartily commend it to anyone interested in Williams, the guitar, or the culture of classical guitar in our times. A well-written compelling read.

    Michael O’Toole, “John Williams: An Evaluation of his Impact Upon the Culture of the Classical Guitar”. Doctoral thesis, Technological University Dublin, 2018. doi:10.21427/D70129

    https://arrow.tudublin.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1088&context=appadoc

  9. Oakeshott Country @ #914 Thursday, July 25th, 2024 – 7:20 pm

    Fess
    How long have you lived in Sydney, if you think Hornsby is an insular peninsula?

    Some on here take great delight in displaying their ignorance. In fact the populated section of Hornsby Shire is a peninsula between Berowra Waters and Cowan Creek. The headwaters of Berowra Waters are in Thornleigh, south of Hornsby Fishponds, and the southernmost extents of the multiple Cowan Creek tributaries are in Turramurra.

    You can see it all on here if you have the wit to look, or just a long term familiarity with Sydney bushland and waterways. Mock on, turtle.

  10. Centresays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 9:29 pm
    Entropy

    Many people believe what they’re told when it comes to climate change. That’s fine, that’s their choice.
    ================================================

    I suspect my understanding of the science is somehow far superior to yours. While you may think planck’s constant is a standardised building timber length. I have a bit more understanding of the emission and absorption spectrum of the electrons fields around atmospheric gas molecules. Certainly i have been to far more climate change talks given by climate scientists than you i suspect. Also have far better understanding of the positive feedback role that that atmospheric water vapour plays in overall global temperature rises. As the group on the floor below me did a lot of research in that area. So got to hear lots of talks on that.

    So what you find in the climate models. Is if you do the modelling with out water vapour. The level of greenhouse gases for 0.5 celsius rise to the planet in the absents of water vapour in the model. Will result in around 1.5 celsius rise once water once you account for water vapour in the model. So a lot of the warming effect is due to the rise in temperature by the greenhouse gases increasing the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Which then has a positive feedback effect increasing atmospheric temperature further.

  11. Entropy, this is a guy who voted for Scomo… are they really worth the effort?

    We both know the reality of climate change doesnt change just because politicans are hypocrites about it

  12. Pied piper says:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 8:42 pm
    Cott independent a Teal like structure are looking for a candidate to run in state seat of Cottosloe.

    Err that’s the only seat the libs hold in Perth.Lower house

    ———- ——- —— –

    The Libs nominated Sandra Brewer in Cottesloe for the next state election, ex director of the WA Property Council not sure she’s a great fit for what’s probably the most anti-housing density seat in WA. Then there’s the direction of the federal and state Liberal parties being slowly taken over by right wing religious and social reactionaries which is putting blue blood voters even more offside. Cottesloe is the WA equivalent of Wentworth – it’s not a place where people like Dutton are looked on favourably.

  13. Lordbainsays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 9:57 pm
    Entropy, this is a guy who voted for Scomo… are they really worth the effort?

    We both know the reality of climate change doesnt change just because politicans are hypocrites about it
    =============================================

    You are correct. It just these anti-science idiots do tend to annoy me at times. Particularly when BT has already made me annoyed with his BS ravings again.

  14. Not politics, but an absolutely wonderful, highly informative, and hard to put down PhD thesis on R. John Williams. I heartily commend it to anyone interested in Williams, the guitar, or the culture of classical guitar in our times. A compelling & satisfying read.

    Michael O’Toole, “John Williams: An Evaluation of his Impact Upon the Culture of the Classical Guitar”. Doctoral thesis, Technological University Dublin, 2018. doi:10.21427/D70129

    https://arrow.tudublin.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1088&context=appadoc

  15. Bonza, the real potential burn is if Trump gets a 2nd term… basically his policies lock us in to the worst case scenario (as opposed to pretty bad case scenario currently)

  16. Entropy says Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 9:50 pm

    I suspect my understanding of the science is somehow far superior to yours. While you may think planck’s constant is a standardised building timber length. I have a bit more understanding of the emission and absorption spectrum of the electrons fields around atmospheric gas molecules. Certainly i have been to far more climate change talks given by climate scientists than you i suspect. Also have far better understanding of the positive feedback role that that atmospheric water vapour plays in overall global temperature rises. As the group on the floor below me did a lot of research in that area. So got to hear lots of talks on that.

    So what you find in the climate models. Is if you do the modelling with out water vapour. The level of greenhouse gases for 0.5 celsius rise to the planet in the absents of water vapour in the model. Will result in around 1.5 celsius rise once water once you account for water vapour in the model. So a lot of the warming effect is due to the rise in temperature by the greenhouse gases increasing the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Which then has a positive feedback effect increasing atmospheric temperature further.

    Many years I go I saw someone arguing that human induced global warming was not true, with one of his arguments being that the warming affect of water vapour was far more than that of CO2. I’m not sure he understood feedback loops. (he was also the type, common amongst deniers, that seemed to ague that there was no warming, but if there was warming, it was not caused by burning fossil fuels or any other human activity).

  17. Centre @9.29pm
    [Biden handing out 1,473 oil and gas licences (half the number handed out in the world and 83% of that handed out by all wealthy nations) in his term can’t think it’s an emergency!]

    You have no idea how oil and gas licencing is regulated, controlled and owned in the USA.
    What you are implying is that Biden was responsible for oil and gas licencing in the USA.
    You say this because it’s suits your mindset to vent your particular version of of a false argument
    Some very light research into the oil and gas industry in the USA will give you some answer regarding regulation, ownership, individual states and their role, environmental implications, political implications and the reality.
    Harping on about a Guardian article, its position along the political spectrum and one set of explanatory graphs doesn’t do justice to the incredibly complex nature of the oil and gas industry in the USA.
    The USA often has an ability to confuse and oil and gas is no exception.
    The entire world and more importantly the USA will turn away from oil and gas for economic reason resulting from changing technology..
    The science says that the changes needed to wean the entire earth off oil and gas is not happening quickly enough.
    Any amounts and numbers of human catalytic interference will be needed to enable this to happen.
    Attributing the granting of oil and gas licences in the USA to President Biden or any other past President is not going t alter the complexity of the task in what could be the greatest test if humankind on the earth as we know it.
    The history of oil and gas, the current prevailing forces defining the use of oil and gas and moving forward reducing oil and gas is a task beyond explanation.
    Some people are trying.

  18. I noted two Aus fed gov ministers stepping down.
    Rate the skills and TAFE highly.
    The other well, some pigs aren’t more equal.
    Hmmm, teacher, advisory board, state pollyTIC, federal pollyTIC, Minister, how does she feel about centrist, blue Libs lite’s ‘social justice and equality’ now?
    Read in ABC News: https://apple.news/AxjqvyAefT8e6bJYmd-XJyg
    Shared from Apple News

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