The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.
Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.
Pageboi
Was it just the clinic you went to?
I took my mother to an urgent care clinic in Carlton, Sydney, two weeks ago, and they were taking walk-ins. I was very impressed with the quick and effective service.
Also, we did ring the number provided by NSW Health, and they found an appointment for us, but if there was none available, they would have given is a Telehealth appointment.
I think they just need more clinics, but there is a shortage of medical staff (particularly GPs) in Australia (and in France also!) at the moment.
I hope they can bring some more online.
MI / D&M,
yes it might just be the urgent care clinic in coffs, but our ED here is notoriously understaffed, to the point of the doctors and nurses striking over the issue, and there is not a single GP who bulk bills general patients. Website for the urgent care clinic now says strictly appointment only
The LGA has a population of over 70k, and coffs is a hub to a region of more than that, so pretty disappointed. It’s actually probably the only real downside of moving here actually, everything else has been great!
Fairman…
The point I was trying to make – perhaps failed – was to draw attention to the transitory nature of opinion polls.
The Yes vote was steaming along quite nicely – favourable polls.
Dutton says no to the Referendum (I don’t buy the “there is not enough detail stuff – especially as Dutton’s nuclear gambit also believed no details were necessary to flesh out the the purpose) and suddenly the Yes vote gets the kiss of death.
You believe Dutton was honest and sincere in his tactic? I certainly do not. He meant to destroy the Referendum to get at Albanese and his government.
Why anybody would give any credence to Dutton on anything – after his Referendum gambit is beyond me.
Still, like US Republicans, about 35% of the electorate are rusted on for the Libs and especially the Nats out in the sticks
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 10:43 am
[Sorry, If you don’t understand. I don’t do explainer classes.]
Do you mind if I borrow that Lars ?
Dutts’ Nuclear Policy stacks up, keep the coal plants going until the Nukes next door are built, then plug ’em in!
Labor saying they won’t be built until 2047, big deal, that still locks in NetZero 2050.
Tricot:
You believe Dutton was honest and sincere in his tactic? I certainly do not. He meant to destroy the Referendum to get at Albanese and his government.
It’s not called Opposition for no reason.
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 12:06 pm
[Dutts’ Nuclear Policy stacks up, keep the coal plants going until the Nukes next door are built, then plug ’em in!
Labor saying they won’t be built until 2047, big deal, that still locks in NetZero 2050.]
You could visit one of those walk-in clinics perhaps Badthinker?
Have the thinker part looked at.
Enough Australian voters don’t want nuclear energy and the electricity produced by nuclear reactors is more expensive.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris launched her campaign for president on Sunday after her running mate stepped aside, and it has reportedly led to the biggest fundraising day for Democrats all year.
As of 9pm ET, grassroots supporters have raised $46.7 million through ActBlue following Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign launch,” the group said on Sunday. “This has been the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle.”
Herald Sun 22/07
Brittany Higgins is planning to sell her French home in the countryside less than a year after purchasing it to fund the million dollar fight over former Defence Minister Linda Reynolds defamation claim.
_____________________
The hubby needs to help her out. The lavish wedding was a waste of money. I bet that was his idea.
Boycott has been admitted to hospital suffering from pneumonia, days after being treated for throat cancer. It’s doesn’t look good.
PageBoi
yes it might just be the urgent care clinic in coffs, but our ED here is notoriously understaffed, to the point of the doctors and nurses striking over the issue, and there is not a single GP who bulk bills general patients. Website for the urgent care clinic now says strictly appointment only
The LGA has a population of over 70k, and coffs is a hub to a region of more than that, so pretty disappointed. It’s actually probably the only real downside of moving here actually, everything else has been great!
In France they call places like Coffs “les déserts médicaux”, and it is a real problem.
The developed world made a big mistake when they decided to import their medical professionals from the developed world. Because that part of the world developed, and now they need these people themselves.
UNSW has a campus in Grafton / Coffs, and train doctors specifically with the aim of attracting people from the regions. they give them a “UAI” discount. I have talked to many at open days (pre-COVID), and they were always enthusiastic about practising in the regions. But who knows what happens over the 5 / 6 years of a medical degree plus all the other training.
Having seen many enthusiastic students over the years who have just missed the UAI for medicine – they mostly seem to go into medical research as far as I can tell – I think there is a good case for training more doctors.
This should also help, eventually with the GP shortage.
But OC is the expert here. My words are just thought bubbles.
Dutton blaming the CFMEU for the rise in inflation. Looks like they going to be the blame for everything.
Harris seems a bit Trumpian here. America and the world are screwed either way.
https://x.com/karaokecomputer/status/1815101731216478606
Badthinker…
Your concept of opposition has not moved much beyond saying No…..just like Dutton’s currently
While it is a bit old fashioned, ‘Loyal Oppositions’ under what is left of the so-called Westminster tradition, were obliged to provide alternatives as well as “oppose”.
Dutton is into right-wing ideology and pathetically weak on any kind of real policy development.
By your many comments you seem well at home with this unsophisticated approach to politics. Mind you, you have plenty of mates out there in voter land.
Sohar the full quote is
“I say with all love and warmth, that part of the concern also for people who are progressive thinking and liberal-minded or just ‘fix it! fix it!’ is that we all have these posters in our closet on a stick that we sometimes cart out to talk about criminal justice policy, and those statistics you heard…
And we run around with the signs and say, “Build more schools, less jails!’ “Build more schools, less jails!’ ‘Put money into education, not prisons.’
There’s a fundamental problem with that approach, in my opinion, and it is this: I agree with that conceptually, but you have not addressed the reason I have three padlocks on my door.
So part of the discussion about criminal justice reform has to be an acknowledgment that crime does occur, especially violent crime and serious crime. There should be a broad consensus that there should serious, swift, and severe consequences to crime. ”
I think most people would agree with that sentiment
Bean, isnt that sorta strawman though?
When people talk about reform they arnt just simply shouting defund the police etc outside of catchy march tunes.
It is interesting that Senator Reynolds is prepared to force a young pregnant mother, who was raped in the Senators office, sell her home to fund the defamation defence.
Yeah I agree, but I also understand the realist perspective. Like you need police and crimes do need to be punished. I don’t agree with the severe and quick punishment thing because thats usually just an excuse to fill jails with minor offenders, but largely I get her perspective.
I should have added that I don’t really agree with it, but its a logical position and people would agree with the sentiment, and it doesn’t exclude her also having a position of reform in the future since she also acknowledges that she agrees with them in principle.
FUBAR says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 11:17 am
Scott says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 8:50 am
AEC should be stopping this
This has nothing to do with the AEC.
———————
During federal election campaign it has and ballot paper
The AEC could easily stop the Federal National party from misleading voters in the northern territory
When Jacinta Price is campaigning and on the ballot paper put (This candidate is a National Party member) next to Country Liberal Party
Sounds like Brittany couldn’t leave well enough alone and went back for her hat?
Badthinker !
Labor saying they won’t be built until 2047, big deal, that still locks in NetZero 2050 ????
No logic there, in the meantime the Earth gets FRIED !
Stupid statement by a badthinker !.
Steve Davis:
He is kind of right, primary industry price costs in the past 20-25 years have been caused by employment pressures, and unions don’t help with that.
1934Pc:
“Australia… contributing just over 1 per cent of global emissions.” Says your beloved CSIRO.
Meanwhile China is ramping up energy production elsewhere in fossil fuels, as well as renewables. Whatever we save is going to be wasted by them, what difference will it make? (I know I sound like a NIMBY, get over it 😀 )
FWIW: an analysis of the Newspoll poll by Kat Wong.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/poll-show-leaders-struggling-to-stand-out/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
‘out of sorts says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 3:24 pm
Steve Davis:
He is kind of right, primary industry price costs in the past 20-25 years have been caused by employment pressures, and unions don’t help with that.’
—————————
LOL. Nearly all basic ag labour tasks are being done by o/s gig workers who are being ‘managed’ by labour hire companies. You could not screw them down any more if you tried.
BTW this will be the first election since 1976 without a Bush, Clinton, Biden or Obama.
》Australia… contributing just over 1 per cent of global emissions.” Says your beloved CSIRO.
With just 0.33% of the global population
I went to a walk-in clinic in Canberra a week ago for a tetanus injection. There are several scattered throughout the city. None take bookings and the website expressly says not to phone as the staff are busy treating patients; not answering phones. It worked for me.
The editor-in-chief of the Australian Financial Review, Michael Stutchbury, will step down after 13 years in the role, amid a shake-up at Nine Entertainment that will see 200 jobs cut across the media company.
Stutchbury, 67, will be replaced next month by James Chessell, the former executive editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age.
Nine Entertainment’s managing director of publishing, Tory Maguire, said Stutchbury had guided the Financial Review through enormous changes in technology and consumer behaviour.
Journalists at the Financial Review – and the Age and the Sydney Morning Herald – face looming cuts of up to 90 jobs in the publishing division.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/22/michael-stutchbury-resigns-afr-editor-in-chief-australian-financial-review-ntwnfb
“Labor saying they won’t be built until 2047, big deal, that still locks in NetZero 2050 ”
_______
What’s moron you are. The ‘realistic timeframe’* is as follows:
1. Herr Dutton gets elected in 2025 and starts the process of setting up the regulatory framework, massively expanding university and TAFE places for scientists, engineers and technicians etc etc according to the IAEA’s “how to become a nuclear energy country” guidebook.
2. At the same time ‘intensive community consultations’ take place to finalise the selection of the sites for the first seven nuclear power plants. Contract negotiations commence with prospective manufacturers of nuclear power plants. Let’s assume that the South Koreans – the LNP’s pin ups – are selected and contracts are entered into by 2030.
3. Points 1 and 2 take five years ‘best case’ – using the UAE example as the template – to complete.
4. A Further five years is taken to remediate all of the sites selected, but let’s assume for the purposes of the argument that by 2030 – not 2028* as Dutton has postulated – construction at at least two sites starts.
5. It will take 9 years for the first power to be generated and tested into the grid. It will take a full 14 years at a minimum before the first two plants have all four units (individual reactors) fully operational and putting their ‘nameplate’ generation capacity into the grid.
6. So that takes to around 2044 … and for what? Using the South Koreans as the benchmark that means that about 11 gigawatts of electricity would be generated by eight nuclear reactors in two power plants.
7. When all seven power plants rare operational a combination of up to 28 individual reactors will produce around 45 gigawatts of electricity – or about 6% of the nation’s generation requirements. The other 94%?
8. The simple truth is that the LNP’s plan for nuclear power generation is not an alternative to Labor’s renewable plans. In truth it is a mirage – a calculated distraction for the real agenda: destroy investment in renewables and then ‘as an emergency measure’ institute a new round of fossil fuel generators for day-to-day energy requirements for the rest of this century.
9. If the LNP was serious about replacing ‘baseload’ coal fired power stations with baseload nuclear power – to provide reliable 24/7 power to industrial centres like the Illawarra and the Hunter (nd hence avoid the need for things like massive off-shore wind farms), the ‘facts based debate’ they are now belatedly calling for needed to start in the late 1990s – ie. at the time that Howard banned nuclear power in an act of political expediency AND action needed to be taken at some point between 2006 (when Howard kicked Ziggy’s nuclear power report into the long grass) and 2017 – when Truffles was ruminating over a ‘National energy guarantee’. Instead of simply manoeuvring against Truffles over the NEG – if Dutton was fair dinkum back in 2017-18 he should have had the guts and integrity to come out and offer nuclear power as the alternative. He didn’t, and indeed was on record as late as 2022 publicly opposing nuclear power generation for Australia. Now, it is too late: the coal fired power plants that sustain these industrial centres will all be decommissioned a decade – or more – before any nuclear power could come on line to replace them.
10. So no “Badthinker”, the LNP’s plan – if implemented by 2047 – would not lock in net 2050 – not even just in relation to electricity generation (let alone all the other much tougher decisions that will have to be made and implemented in other sectors of the economy) BECAUSE 94% of day to day generation would still have to come from other means. SMR’s wont be much chop either, because even 20-30 SMR’s will only generate another 5-10 gigawatts between them. Net zero – just in electricity generation – will come down to renewables – and the only show in town capable of delivering what is required is Labor’s plan.
11. The question must therefore be asked, if renewables will provide the spine of the new national energy market, exactly what role would 45-60 gigawatts of nuclear energy – if and when it does turn up – play? It wont help Newcastle and the Illawarra much (or Whyalla or any other high energy industrial centre) because by 2045-50 either heavy industry would have left those centres once coal fired power ends, OR Labor’s plans for firmed renewables will have been implemented. Nuclear power is also a terrible ‘peaker’ technology, because of the expense and timeframes involved in turning these sort of power plants on and off. It seems to me, the LNP – having fucked around for the last 30 years – would only ever deliver a trillion dollar white elephant.
This is all a marketing exercise: legitimising lies to get ‘low information low interest’ voters to believe – without any thought – that the LNP will save their utes and somehow, via magical thinking immediately slash their electricity bills now (even though it would be decades before nuclear power turns up [and leaving aside the fact that it would push prices through the roof once it doers]).
* Even though I said ‘realistic timeframes’ to implement the LNP’s ‘plans’, this is only ‘on paper’. In reality I cannot see how anyone would ever think that these timeframes – in this country – could ever be met. Rather than us being like the UAE and South Korea, it is far more likely that the whole pro chess would get bogged down for decades and decades: ie. like just about everywhere else in the world.
Kamala Harris has spent much more of her life as a prosecutor than as a senator or vice president – and that is exactly how she is now going to run against Donald Trump. In sessions that were quietly underway at the Naval Observatory even before Joe Biden’s disastrous debate, Harris and her inner circle had already landed on the plan to look past whoever Trump picked as his running mate and focus almost exclusively on the former president.
The vice president had expected that to be part of her role making the case for Biden. But it became clearer and clearer over the last month that she was likely going to be making the case for herself.
Now that Biden has stepped aside — and with even more of her potential opponents planning to endorse her by the end of the day Monday — over a dozen advisers and close allies told CNN they think her candidacy will lean heavily on her background as a district attorney, attorney general and cross examiner in Senate hearings.
It is simple, they say: prosecutor versus felon.
The strategy will be a return to the “prosecutor for president” framework of her 2020 presidential campaign, which included her slogan taken from her days standing up in court as a young assistant district attorney: “Kamala Harris, for the people.” In those days, her team was stretching the rhetoric. But this year, the GOP nominee has been found guilty in a New York hush money trial, liable for battery in a civil case, and faces two other criminal cases related to subverting the 2020 election.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/22/politics/harris-strategy-against-trump/index.html
Rep. Jamie Raskin on @MSNBC as he endorses Vice President Harris: “JD Vance has no conviction. But Donald Trump has 34 of them, so maybe he can share.”
Boerwar. Kat Wong who wrote that newspoll related article for city news needs some basic maths. 28% of voters supporting each of Dutton and Albanese does not mean less than a third of people want Dutton or Albanese. In fact somewhere near 56% want Dutton or Albanese.
My thoughts on the latest newspoll and freshwater
Primary for both sides is pretty crap, deservedly so. With tax cuts and nukular policies now well and truly in the mix it seems neither has really shifted the dial
The national mood is gloomy, given the continuing COL issues and housing crisis, plus all the other crap going on. You see this in the negative net sats for both leaders , high portion of ‘dont know’ to same questions, and negative responses to general direction of the country type Q’s
Freshwater ‘who is better to manage X’ was pretty dire for the government, with the coalition ahead on most categories
In the circles I move in the mood is generally one of resignation, that the government is mediocre at best but memories are still fresh of just how shit the former government was, and there’s certainly no love for Peter Dutton
Can’t see a path to victory for the coalition at the moment, but further seats lost to independents and greens is quite possible, potentially resulting in a (welcome IMO) ALP minority
Danger points for the government are duttons continual reference to albo as ‘weak’, the economy (not that they’d be any better), and the whol migration/housing nexus
Unfortunately the government can’t really run on it’s record, it does to me seem to be a very meek and timid government and their responses to most problems have been generally half assed or downright bad. Positives would be some of the IR stuff and ‘some’ of the responses to gender equality
On the downside we have several broken promises
No-one left behind – this should be self explanatory but failure to raise jobseeker, continued mutual obligations, housing failures etc etc – this one’s broken
Reduced power bills – sorry but subsidising your bill isn’t the same as lowering it. They could have met this one if they’d stood up to the gas industry, but they didn’t so this is a fail
Integrity – pissweak useless NACC, no-one suffering any consequences for robodebt, whistleblowers and peaceful protesters prosecuted, fighting for the right in the high court to shred documents between ministers – utter fail
The mood for mine is we’re glad the coalition is gone but Labor haven’t really improved things much. It’s almost the end of the term now so time isn’t a factor any more either, you can only blame the other side for so long. Labor and albo go into the next election owning all the problems, and so far their solutions are just less crap than the opposition, certainly nothing inspiring
Lovely pic.
Also, I think Zoe Daniel was amazing on insiders, freedom boy’s got no chance! She was articulate, across the issues and spoke well, you’d have to be a pretty rusted on lib or ALP supporter to vote against her if you lived in Goldstein
Plus she gets bonus points for not straight up laughing in David Speers’ face when he said the ALP has addressed climate and integrity as issues, but her quite diplomatic response shows that those very much remain on the agenda as live issues…….
Dutton’s nuclear policy is a poorly constructed conjob that even his boosters would be embarrassed to promote.
Of course, genuine conservatives won’t have a bar of this rubbish.
The dud glow-in-the-dark radioactive Thug says this about the female independents:
“Dutton argues teal MPs have achieved ‘nothing’ since elected”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jul/22/australian-news-live-politics-albanese-dutton-biden-us-election-labor-coalition-greens-energy-weather-it-outage-nsw-vic-qld-ntwnfb
Just bloody typical of the misogynistic foul nuclear waste dump proposing party he
runs… 😡
He has utter Buckley’s chance of winning back these seats now 😆
David Rowe
Well said pageboi 439pm. pretty much on the money.
Who would have thought in the middle of a housing crisis and a population of 30m people would think 5000 new houses (per annum) maybe could be considered well – tokenistic?
Awaiting Morgan Lars.
Scott – If you are on the site, you mentioned earlier today a comment from Kos Samaras that the Redbridge poll was coming soon. Do you have the link, as i’ve chkd the Samaras “X” feed, and there is nothing there. Sorry, I can’t find your earlier post, perhaps it’s on the other blog.
No doubt Lars Von Trier is keen on Morgan Poll
To calculate Labor primary vote
davosays:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 5:20 pm
The dud glow-in-the-dark radioactive Thug says this about the female independents:
“Dutton argues teal MPs have achieved ‘nothing’ since elected”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jul/22/australian-news-live-politics-albanese-dutton-biden-us-election-labor-coalition-greens-energy-weather-it-outage-nsw-vic-qld-ntwnfb
Just bloody typical of the misogynistic foul nuclear waste dump proposing party he
runs…
He has utter Buckley’s chance of winning back these seats now
—————-
Some are ordinary so they are not all safe.
nadia88 says:
Monday, July 22, 2024 at 5:39 pm
Awaiting Morgan Lars.
Scott – If you are on the site, you mentioned earlier today a comment from Kos Samaras that the Redbridge poll was coming soon. Do you have the link, as i’ve chkd the Samaras “X” feed, and there is nothing there. Sorry, I can’t find your earlier post, perhaps it’s on the other blog.
———————-
Good timing Nadia i just came on
Here is the link
https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1814994505008906682
Thanks for link Scott. Looks like Morgan is holding off a bit, but that’s life. Perhaps soon. I’ll hang around another half hour or so. Thanks too for your posts and interest in the numbers. V.informative.
Catprog @ #128 Monday, July 22nd, 2024 – 4:02 pm
Scope 3 emissions, anyone?
Over the last two weeks Morgan Poll was quick to publish when the federal lib/nats were leading
But when Labor is leading they seem to delay it
Maybe Labor is in the lead this week
No, I think Labor is heading south at the moment. July has not been good for Labor.
Actually, the numbers are finally in for Roy Morgan
* ALP 31.5% (up 0.5)
* LNP 39.5% (up 2)
* GRN 13% (up 0.5)
* Pauline 5% (steady)
* Others 11% (down 3)
Sample: 1752
Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/coalition-gains-slight-edge-over-labor-after-controversy-about-alleged-union-corruption-l-np-51-cf-alp-49
My comment – International events stepped in to shore up the majors. Repeat of Newspoll