Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. nadia88 says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    Actually, the numbers are finally in for Roy Morgan

    * ALP 31.5% (up 0.5)
    * LNP 39.5% (up 2)
    * GRN 13% (up 0.5)
    * Pauline 5% (steady)
    * Others 11% (down 3)

    Sample: 1752
    Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/coalition-gains-slight-edge-over-labor-after-controversy-about-alleged-union-corruption-l-np-51-cf-alp-49

    —————-

    contradictory heading by Morgan poll
    Lib/nats 51%
    Labor 49%

    but labor leads based on actual federal election result
    When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred narrowly favours the Albanese Government: ALP: 50.5% (down 1% point from a week ago) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 1% point from a week ago).

  2. No argument from me. The way people vote in the privacy of a booth is more important than a respondent allocated calculation. So, I go with the 50.5% ALP 2PP.

  3. Just looking at the Biden blog, a poster called Clem Attlee has launched into Boer at 5.30pm, so I gather there will be a mega-response shortly. I’d rather keep out of it. Lordbain – i think you can grab your favorite ale and watch the fireworks on the other blog.
    Will keep an eye out for YouGov & Redbridge.

  4. Just checked nadia… look I honestly dont need anymore US news for the week (maybe 2, depending on when the first decent polls begin)

    Aussie polling will always be my drug

  5. The final newspoll in 2022 overstated the Labor primary by 3.5% and the final 2PP by 1% .

    If newspoll still has the same lean you would get something very close to the freshwater polling result last night.

    Just sayin

  6. Polling showing libs are about 40 on primary.

    Labor has major issues like interest rates and Muslim party etc etc that will drag it down.

    Not great Newspoll for libs but it will turn quickly.

  7. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 6:45 pm
    The final newspoll in 2022 overstated the Labor primary by 3.5% and the final 2PP by 1% .

    If newspoll still has the same lean you would get something very close to the freshwater polling result last night.

    Just sayin

    _______

    Seriously? You are attempting to ascribe and adjust for house effects based on one poll each? That is somewhat naive from an old-timer like yourself 🙂

  8. I asked about C@t this morning and was reminded she is moving house. It’s possible she doesn’t have internet connected yet.

  9. I believe he is referencing this, albeit in a highly offensive and misunderstood way.
    Socialist Realism.
    Either both depictions are offensive or neither are.
    Never heard of Ruby Bridges before, clearly the pitch is going to be Harris as a Symbol rather than the reality.
    Problem is the Dems have already done that with Obama, he was at least half American [some say full Amereican] Harris is a Hindu/Jamaican, who’s buying that?

  10. If Australia had an election campaign like the USA the punters and the press would be totally pissed off. Its fucking 4 months yet and the media are going on and on and on about a country that most of us couldnt care less about. I’m well over it. WE DONT LIVE IN AMERICA FFS.

  11. Morgan reflects the electorate, Labor do better when the House isn’t sitting, L-NP has held it’s gains.
    Teals have run out of issues, NACC is legislated, the worm may be turning on the Brittany Higgins issue [11 days to LR v BH in Perth], Labor is the Party with corruption issues now.
    Parly resumes August 12 for 2 weeks.
    Dutts has told troops to be ready for Setember Election.

  12. Buried in the weeds of the Morgan Poll is this enlightening gem…

    When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred narrowly favours the Albanese Government: ALP: 50.5% (down 1% point from a week ago) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 1% point from a week ago).

    After 2 years of huffing and puffing, the downrampers have not even broken out of MOE

  13. Thanks Confessions. By the way I thought your post a few days back suggesting that the Dems go for an all women team focussing heavily on the need to protect women’s reproductive rights made a lot of sense. I think it’s the one issue that could easily tip the scales if they can just get women out voting in huge numbers right across the country.

  14. So lets look at the last month or so of polls and the Labor primary vote below. The outlier here appears to be Newspoll when you look at what happened over the last 6 weeks:

    It has to be a) Newspoll is seeing something that the others are missing or Newspoll is wrong.

    I can accept individual polls vary but why would the Newspoll be so consistent on the primary in a 6 week period of Payman, COL, CFMEU etc and 2-3 points higher than the other polls where the news cycle has been unfavourable for the govt and the others show a decline in the primary vote or a lower level of primary?

    Jun 3, 2024 Jun 7, 2024 Newspoll/Pyxis Online NAT 1,232 33
    Jun 3, 2024 Jun 9, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,687 30.5
    Jun 11, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Resolve Strategic Online NAT 1,607 28
    Jun 14, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Freshwater Strategy Online NAT 1,060 32
    Jun 10, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,724 29.5
    Jun 12, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Essential Research Online NAT 1,181 31
    Jun 17, 2024 Jun 23, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,696 31.5
    Jun 24, 2024 Jun 28, 2024 Newspoll/Pyxis Online NAT 1,260 32
    Jun 26, 2024 Jun 30, 2024 Essential Research Online NAT 1,160 30
    Jun 24, 2024 Jun 30, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,708 31.5
    Jul 1, 2024 Jul 7, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,723 28.5
    Jul 9, 2024 Jul 14, 2024 Resolve Strategic Online NAT 1,603 28
    Jul 8, 2024 Jul 14, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,758 31
    Jul 10, 2024 Jul 14, 2024 Essential Research Online NAT 1,122 29
    Jul 15, 2024 Jul 19, 2024 Newspoll/Pyxis Online NAT 1,258 33
    Jul 17, 2024 Jul 19, 2024 Freshwater Strategy Online NAT 1,060 31

  15. sprocket_says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 6:37 pm
    The poor souls parsing the Morgan entrails are missing the big picture.
    =======================================================
    The LNP posters on the other blog haven’t yet picked up on that 39.5% LNP Primary.
    The big picture is that the Libs are very close to getting to the 40% mark. Dutton has done what he’s needed to do, and that is lap up the fringe right vote. (UAP is basically extinct, though ONP is hanging in). The LNP get about 65% of the ONP vote, so the Libs are getting close. I know some posters don’t like seeing/hearing this (and gosh I’ve copped it from several fronts this past fortnight), but the numbers are what count, not feelings.
    The most recent LNP primaries, are as follows…
    * Morgan (today) 39.5%
    * Newspoll (Sun) 38%
    * Freshwater (Sun) 40%
    * Resolve (last Monday) 38%
    * Morgan (earlier this month) 39.5%
    * Essential (last tues, the clear outlier) 33%

    WB bludgertrack has the LNP averaging out at 37.4%. This is surely going to go up when the above named polls are fed into his computer program.

    Labor – they have fallen below 30% on three seperate polls during July, possibly a fourth coming soon. Naturally I blame the Sen.Payman situation on this, based on the old rule of “division is death”. The CFMEU thing is mainly isolated to Victoria, but if it gets out of hand, you could see a situation develop similar to what happenned at the 1990 Fed election in Victoria. This would be the end of the Albanese gov’t. Note the 2% swing against Labor in Victoria, in the recent Morgan update. Victoria is a state to watch at the moment.

    Greens – they have held their vote steady. They’re on the march in this country and we can expect their primary to start breaching the 15% mark regularly before the year is out. They did breach the 15% mark on Jun.9 & Apr.21 (refer the BT poll data tab). They’re coming, like it or not. They’ll hang onto their 3 Brisbane based seats. They’ll jag Wills, and possibly Cooper (ex-Batman), in Vic. I think they have their eyes on Richmond (NSW), and given that Mr Albanese found it necessary to go to a Primary School for playtime with children in the Division of Lilley (QLD) last week, perhaps Lilley is now in play (though the Greens came 3rd in that seat last election)

    The Teals – Gosh, spare me. They lack any political party structure and are reliant on funding from wealthy individuals. The Teals won seats, because the Greens and Labor members held hands in those seats to oust the sitting Libs, aided by changing demographics The gloves should come off soon, and the Greens and Labor will be fighting to take those ex-Lib seats for themselves. Kooyong, for example, should go Green eventually. Will probably revert back to the Libs next election, but eventually it will turn Green. Burnside pulled 21% there in 2019 so there is a very decent Green rump in that seat. If the Lib vote stays down around 40% there, & the Greens come 2nd, then they should win the seat off ALP preferences…eventually.

    Sorry for talking about the polls and numbers. Quite frankly it’s better than talking about Higgins, Wilkinson, Biden, dementia, bandicoots, satan and Trump’s shoe size when he nearly had his head blown off.

  16. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 7:25 pm
    So lets look at the last month or so of polls and the Labor primary vote below. The outlier here appears to be Newspoll when you look at what happened over the last 6 weeks:

    It has to be a) Newspoll is seeing something that the others are missing or Newspoll is wrong.

    I can accept individual polls vary but why would the Newspoll be so consistent on the primary in a 6 week period of Payman, COL, CFMEU etc and 2-3 points higher than the other polls where the news cycle has been unfavourable for the govt and the others show a decline in the primary vote or a lower level of primary?

    Jun 3, 2024 Jun 7, 2024 Newspoll/Pyxis Online NAT 1,232 33
    Jun 3, 2024 Jun 9, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,687 30.5
    Jun 11, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Resolve Strategic Online NAT 1,607 28
    Jun 14, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Freshwater Strategy Online NAT 1,060 32
    Jun 10, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,724 29.5
    Jun 12, 2024 Jun 16, 2024 Essential Research Online NAT 1,181 31
    Jun 17, 2024 Jun 23, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,696 31.5
    Jun 24, 2024 Jun 28, 2024 Newspoll/Pyxis Online NAT 1,260 32
    Jun 26, 2024 Jun 30, 2024 Essential Research Online NAT 1,160 30
    Jun 24, 2024 Jun 30, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,708 31.5
    Jul 1, 2024 Jul 7, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,723 28.5
    Jul 9, 2024 Jul 14, 2024 Resolve Strategic Online NAT 1,603 28
    Jul 8, 2024 Jul 14, 2024 Roy Morgan Online/Phone NAT 1,758 31
    Jul 10, 2024 Jul 14, 2024 Essential Research Online NAT 1,122 29
    Jul 15, 2024 Jul 19, 2024 Newspoll/Pyxis Online NAT 1,258 33
    Jul 17, 2024 Jul 19, 2024 Freshwater Strategy Online NAT 1,060 31

    ________

    This is better. Newspoll does look like the upper limit, but not out of bounds. The very same argument could be applied to Resolve as the lower limit.

  17. Gosh Lars – we are almost thinking the same way on politics. Six minutes apart and we basically dropped the same post.

    Anyway, enough for me for the time being. I’ll wait for YouGov & redbridge.

  18. nadia88 says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 7:31 pm

    I won’t repost your post, but thank you. I agree with you in parts. The Coalition is improving. However, I do not see the positive trend in primaries for The Greens. They were cracking 15 on individual polls more often in 2023 as a result of increased variance in 2023. The trend on Bludgertrack is quite flat for 2023/2024, although better than 2022.

  19. Nadia

    Found this other post earlier than the link
    where opinion polling companies doubt those opinion polls who are showing labor primary vote lower than30%

    Kos Samaras
    @KosSamaras
    ·
    Jul 16
    Resolve places Federal Labor’s primary vote at 28%. However, both public and private research I have seen do not support this figure. In fact, the trend has been stable, with Labor in the low to mid-30s and the Coalition in the mid to high-30s. Newspoll is similar.

  20. If you look at Williams 2PP graph it closely correlates with the preferred PM graph as well and tracks Albo’s net satisfaction decline as well.

  21. Apart from mouthy platitudes Jacinta Price offers nothing of value, nor detail, when it comes to indigenous affairs.
    Sarah Ferguson really holding her to account, probing her to provide any details of what the coalition has to offer. She’s rather vacuous, Price.

  22. The responses on here astound, the result being that credibility has been lost What we have is a political party based in Queensland and rural Australia versus the rest, so the population centres At this stage of the cycle , notwithstanding media bias, people are not switched onto politics and will not be until an election is called so the polls are not relevant (noting the ALP enjoyed leads but Howard won elections). Come an election the ALP will present as a disciplined government which has made policy gains in a World which is a long way from perfect (War zones, inflation, access to housing are World events in a post pandemic World). That they have improved the health system, supported wage increases, given tax relief and provided enhanced supports to those in need of support will see the government rewarded accordingly and a comfortable victory across the majority of the Nation

  23. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 7:56 pm
    If you look at Williams 2PP graph it closely correlates with the preferred PM graph as well and tracks Albo’s net satisfaction decline as well.

    ________

    I agree with that. A lot of hurt and disappointment post referendum. The leader loses personal goodwill moreso than the party in such situations. The interesting thing more recently is the uptick in Dutton’s numbers. That is something new. The nuclear thought bubble hasn’t made a dent.

  24. The only real voting evidence since the 2022 federal election

    have been in 3 by-election
    Where swings have been to Labor in a safe Federal Liberal party seat where Labor gain that seat and in a 50/50 Labor held seat
    There has been no swing against the federal government

    There has been swings against the federal Lib/nats and the swing the federal liberal party had was in a safe QLD LNP seat
    Which has contradicted opinion polling about federal Lib/nats are getting swing nation-wide outside of QLD

    There seems be no swing to the federal lib/nats outside of QLD

  25. Scott compare and contrast your Kos quote from July 16 with this one from today – can you spot the difference?

    @KosSamaras

    Freshwater poll – Federal. ALP 31%, L-NP 40%, Greens 13%, others 16%. Two-party preferred: 51-49 to the LNP. Labor’s primary support remains in the low 30s, while the LNP is in the high 30s. Freshwater reports a higher primary for the LNP than most other public polls, but it aligns with the overall trend.

    These numerical patterns are important, but come election time, we will see a drastic, seat-by-seat political tussle: Labor vs. Liberals, Liberals vs. Independents, Labor vs. Greens, and some three-way contests.

  26. Unless there is a federal by-election happening within the next 6 months to at least see what the opinion is now

    The data is showing a likely labor 2nd term majority

  27. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, July 22, 2024 at 8:03 pm
    These numerical patterns are important, but come election time, we will see a drastic, seat-by-seat political tussle: Labor vs. Liberals, Liberals vs. Independents, Labor vs. Greens, and some three-way contests.
    ——————————————–
    Yes but the pressure would be more on the federal Lib/nats seats which are targeted by independents

    The Federal lib/nats have to gain seats and not lose any seats

  28. Albo in Lilley means they’re rattled already.
    Swan lost it in ’96, very close in ’13, close in ’16, ’22 was a fiasco, LNP Candidate disendorsed during campaign.
    Older area, mostly settled from ’20’s to 50’s, proletarian, CFMEU issue could be a sleeper, they’re as bad in Qld as anywhere else.
    And if Labor’s rattled in Lilley, their last seat on Brisbane’s northside, they’re in trouble everywhere.

  29. The Federal lib/nats have to gain seats and not lose any seats
    Labor are on wood as it is, if Victorian voters decide that the State is being run by the CFMEU and they don’t want them running the Country, then it’s over for Labor.
    That’s what’s happened in Qld, in ’19 and ’22, it will happen everywhere, sooner or later.

  30. Unions wont bring Labor down. Somebody has to represent workers and its certainly not Dutton. If anyone thinks the Coalition is on the workers side they’re completely deluded.

  31. No matter what the polls say Nadia you spout the same pro Green fantasy land round up’. GREENS on the March with 15% pv by years end and winning Wills Cooper Richmond,the Teals losing their way and Labor in the poo. Based on what exactly? Statistical contortions with an MOE of 10+. It’s helps you sleep at night but election booth reality will bite you on the tooshie in Wills in Macnamara in Wen tworth in Cooper in Richmond because Bandt picked a side and went too far. Now the Randwick council Greens head is calling the Govt out for being complicit “baby killers” ..going too far too often is both disgusting and in election terms stupid. Dream on Nadia, your calculator needs an upgrade to say the least.

  32. Gee, I see the entrails of the chook (re polls) being picked over by the the diehards shuffling a point here, half a point there with the samples so small and the MOE up to 3% makes one wonder what world some are living in.
    Some here keep beating the “election soon” drum and as we get get closer and closer to April/May 2025 of course this particular MOE shrinks! What a joke….
    There is absolutely nothing for Labor going before its full term. Labor is little different from the LNP at this point in the election cycle and Dutton, despite the salivation of some, is nowhere near getting to the Lodge yet, if ever.
    Regardless of its detractors the current government has been competent, united and working hard to make the best of the mess left after 9 years of LNP government.

  33. Ah, I see the usual assholes are here claiming nadia is saying things they arnt.

    Last time I checked nadia had not made it clear they were happy or not with the performance of any party… but then that doesnt matter for you guys doesnt it.

    God forbid we discuss polling on a polling site, as opposed to listicles and far right conspiracies involving the supposed weaponization of rape…

  34. Touched a nerve on the GTS psyche there so you revert to personal abuse- how very enlightened of you Lordbain. Carry on ☺

  35. Sandman, I treat you as you treat others chum.

    If Nadia’s calculator is wrong, please feel free to show your own numbers with working out like they do… I won’t hold my breath though

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