Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 20
1 4 5 6 20
  1. Ahhh goll. Why am I not surprised to see you come to the defence of someone bullying someone else for having the audacity to… talk about polling.

    Bravo…

  2. At present we are on the border of a Labor Majority/Minority with a small trend to the LNP who are becoming competitive slowly.

  3. Labor do need get some clean air as they are being impacted by factors largely out of their control eg Payman and CFMEU.

  4. Nadia88
    The Teals – Gosh, spare me. They lack any political party structure and are reliant on funding from wealthy individuals. The Teals won seats, because the Greens and Labor members held hands in those seats to oust the sitting Libs, aided by changing demographics The gloves should come off soon, and the Greens and Labor will be fighting to take those ex-Lib seats for themselves. Kooyong, for example, should go Green eventually. Will probably revert back to the Libs next election, but eventually it will turn Green. Burnside pulled 21% there in 2019 so there is a very decent Green rump in that seat. If the Lib vote stays down around 40% there, & the Greens come 2nd, then they should win the seat off ALP preferences…eventually.
    ——————————
    Don’t see Kooyong going green because the electorate keeps expanding east and south into less green friendly areas and talk of demographic change is misleading because change is being driven by a growing Asian population and many of them are wealthy so the ALP might be a stronger chance than the greens because that wealthy Asian population has gone to the ALP at state level. The UK greens first seat was a bit like Kooyong that was once solid conservative but moved away from the conservatives over many elections before flipping to labour in the 97 election before going green.

  5. Perhaps Lordbain you could adopt a gentler approach to talking about polling, promoting the Greens and expressing your (I believe) well meaning aspirations for a better Australia, whether it be via your views, the polling results or the Greens ideology.

    I suspect that the majority of bludgers have a heightened awareness of polling, party policy and the quality (or lack of quality) of politics generally.

    The use of the words “arsehole” or “chum” probably don’t work.

    If more Australians were as fervent, thoughtful and aware as yourself, the politics and the political outcomes may be more productive, focused and generally better.

    Most Australians are not politically engaged so it’s probably worth acknowledging those that are, regardless of their bent.

  6. More than one poll is showing over 50 percent of Aussies think Australia is going in the wrong direction.
    Private sector is not growing its the government sector that is.Mainly 40 billion NDIS.

    A pathetic left wing rabble is the federal Labor government they are directionless and have no vision.

    Err Payman was selected by labor,and the CFMEU are part of labors fabric.

  7. The thing is, if you’re going to criticise someone, you really should try to walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticise them, you’re a mile away and you have their shoes!

  8. Those 50 per cent should get together and put it out to every politician and the other 50% of society what the right direction is. Id like to see the results.

  9. Pied piper 11.00pm
    “A pathetic left wing rabble is the federal Labor government they are directionless and have no vision.”

    That may be true (or not) but the “pathetic left wing rabble” are in government and seemingly in a good position to remain in government (albeit perhaps as a minority).

    It is however a sad indictment of the alternative government, the LNP, that they cannot gain the ascendency over the “pathetic left wing rabble” particularly as the LNP are the recipients of such enormous amounts of free marketing by a hopelessly compromised MSM and media sparrow, the ABC.

    A spectacular creation of a different unknown political isotope will be required to dismantle the hold that the combined forces of the Labor party, the Greens, the Teals and the Legalise Marijuana Party seem to have at the moment.

    The LNP remain below that “rabble”.

    Perhaps replacing Dutton with a “coloured female” may dot it!

  10. Vice President Kamala Harris raised a record $81 million in her first 24 hours as a candidate for the Democratic nomination for president. That is more than any presidential candidate has ever raised in that stretch of time, the AP reports.
    “The Harris one-day total outstrips the nearly $53 million that Donald J. Trump raised after his criminal conviction, itself an eye-popping sum for a presidential candidate,” notes the New York Times’ Nicholas Nehamas.
    “And it also eclipses the roughly $72 million that President Biden raised in the first quarter after he began his re-election campaign in April 2023,” Nehamas added.
    “The Harris campaign noted that over 888,000 grassroots donors made donations in the past 24 hours, with 60% giving their first contribution of the 2024 campaign cycle,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

  11. A sixth of Tory voters are likely to die before the next general election, according to a new analysis.
    Polling company Focaldata found that the age at which the Conservatives become the most popular party is 64, compared to 42 in 2019.
    In the last five years, one in every ten voters who backed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson’s leadership have died – around 1.3 million people.
    Analysis by The Times using Office for National Statistics population estimates suggests this trend will accelerate during the current parliament. The data suggests 1.2 million Tory supporters will die by 2029, which is 17 per cent of the party’s vote share.
    In comparison, only 500,000 Labour voters – or 5.3% – are expected to die in the same period.
    Labour could also see nearly 800,000 more votes as younger people, who are more likely to back the party, become eligible to vote.
    The net effect is the Tories losing a million votes while Labour gains 300,000.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conserative-voters-age-next-general-election-b2583660.html

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The prime minister has to shrug off culture wars and Green taunts to focus relentlessly on an improving economy, writes Craig Emerson who says Albanese can’t afford distractions now.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/albanese-can-t-afford-distractions-now-20240716-p5ju61
    A high-ranking CFMEU official is alleged to have boasted to corrupt building firms that he could secure them lucrative contracts on major construction projects financed by superannuation giant Cbus because of his influence with insiders at the super fund. Nick McKenzie et all say that allegations of improper dealings between CFMEU state secretary Darren Greenfield and Cbus are made by state and federal detectives working for Operation Brownsmith, a special police taskforce in NSW that investigated alleged union corruption between 2019 and 2022.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/cfmeu-boss-allegedly-bragged-of-corrupt-contract-connections-at-94b-super-fund-20240722-p5jvmb.html
    Medical “profiteering’’ is inflating health costs, an eminent psychiatrist has warned, as new data from The Australian’s Needs of The Nation survey reveals Australians are struggling to pay soaring medical bills. For The Australian, Natasha Bota reports that Orygen executive director Patrick McGorry – a former Australian of the Year who founded free youth mental health service Headspace – has blown the whistle on what he considers to be overcharging and overdiagnosis by some medical specialists. He revealed some private psychiatrists are charging up to $3000 to diagnose mental health disorders.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/health/top-psychiatrist-patrick-mcgorry-blows-whistle-on-specialists-profiteering/news-story/40e5ffb4807aa3d1c60af945262f249e?amp=
    Brittany Higgins says she has been forced to sell her new home in France to defend a defamation action brought by Liberal senator Linda Reynolds which has already cost her more than $1m in legal fees.
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/jul/22/brittany-higgins-linda-reynolds-defamation-case-sold-french-home-ntwnfb
    State and federal governments are ramping up their push for households to switch their hot-water systems from gas to electric heat pumps, in a bid to meet ambitious climate targets and avert a gas supply shortage. But the cost of the new technology continues to put off consumers, explains Mike Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-pump-up-key-technology-to-get-households-off-gas-20240719-p5jv2p.html
    Labor must strike a deal with the Coalition to reform aged care funding by next month or risk more nursing homes going to the wall and leaving vulnerable older Australians in care limbo, members of the Albanese government’s own taskforce warn. The current political standoff also means Labor’s promise of a new aged care act in this parliamentary term “dangles precariously”, a key advocate for older Australians says. Sector voices, both providers and consumers, are increasingly fearful that aged-care reform has descended into a political battle for advantage at the expense of sound policy, improved safety and care quality for older Australians and the financial sustainability of the sector.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/aged-in-limbo-as-care-reforms-stall/news-story/4d466f2297834688f6cea181c40a34aa?amp=
    The federal government will fall 260,000 homes short of its 1.2 million target by the end of the decade, with warnings the nation faces chronic housing affordability problems that will weigh on younger generations for years. Shane Wright reports that new forecasts from Oxford Economics, released on Monday, show that despite the housing construction market enjoying a pick-up from next year as the Reserve Bank starts to cut official interest rates, the government will miss its ambitious home target by more than 20 per cent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-quarter-of-a-million-shortfall-housing-target-unlikely-to-be-met-20240719-p5juyu.html
    Biden’s exit changes the game. But Peter Hartcher tells us why Trump’s is still on track to win.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-s-exit-changes-the-game-but-here-s-why-trump-s-still-on-track-to-win-20240722-p5jvgy.html
    Farrah Tomazin sys that Kamala Harris has three major obstacles to overcome to be president.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/kamala-harris-has-three-major-obstacles-she-will-have-to-overcome-to-be-president-20240722-p5jvhj.html
    Biden couldn’t withstand the friendly fire. But will his self-sacrifice save the Democrats, wonders Nick Bryant.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-couldn-t-withstand-the-friendly-fire-but-will-his-self-sacrifice-save-the-democrats-20240722-p5jvgt.html
    Alan Kohler asks, “With Joe Biden out, can Kamala Harris beat Trump and Vance?” At the end of his contribution he says, “The Supreme Court’s decision makes the president’s actions within the US as unconstrained as they are outside it. The idea of giving that power to a man who is what former Republican house speaker Paul Ryan calls an “authoritarian narcissist”, makes this election – more than any in history – a turning point for America, and the world.”
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/07/22/alan-kohler-america
    Suddenly, Trump, not Biden, is the buffoonish old guy in the race, writes Bill Wyman. He points out that, perhaps due to overconfidence, and plainly happy to dramatise the assassination attempt against him, Trump didn’t use his convention to broaden his appeal. Instead, in a barrage of cartoonish hypermasculinity, he doubled down on just about all of his worst instincts, right down to his vice-presidential pick.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/suddenly-trump-not-biden-is-the-buffoonish-old-guy-in-the-race-20240722-p5jvgv.html
    With 78-year-old Donald Trump now certain to face a Democratic candidate younger than he is, the Republican could have the tables turned on him over the questions of age and mental agility that he often sidestepped while Joe Biden was his opponent. The age gap between Trump and any of his likely Democrat opponents – Kamala Harris, 59; Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, 52; Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, 51 – could make him the sole focus of voters’ desire for a generational handover of power, writes Edward Helmore.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/22/election-trump-harris
    The post-Biden era may be uncertain for the Democrats, but for Trump it will be utterly dismaying, writes Simon Tisdall saying that whoever is nominated, a fresh choice will be on offer – a far better one than a grudge match between two grumpy old men.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/22/post-joe-biden-era-democrats-donald-trump
    Following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the conservative media has engaged in a campaign of misinformation and blame, with non-partisan media failing to do much better, writes Victoria Fielding.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/media-enabling-trumps-mission-to-destroy-democracy,18795
    Australia’s foreign policy via its support for Israel’s government is under strain like never before following claims of genocide at The Hague and now findings that Palestinians are subject to apartheid, says Farah Abdurahman.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/icj-apartheid-findings-over-illegal-israel-settlements-put-australias-foreign-policy-at-the-brink/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding


    Dionne Gain

    Mark David

    John Shakespeare

    Andrew Dyson’

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Spooner

    From the US




















  13. Thanks BK!

    McGorry is belling the cat on just another group of people that have responded to the rivers of gold aka the NDIS.

  14. NDIS under Shorten has blown after more than two years of commentary by Labor its heading for 100 billion.
    Fed labor is happy to be in government but does not take responsibility blaming everyone else but themselves.
    The guilty party.

  15. Thanks BK. Attention is heavily distracted from domestic politics, but it is still happening. The story about Labor falling well short on housing targets should be big news, but it is being ignored. Labor must fix this (and the CFMEU).

    Australia has a lot at stake with the US election too. An isolationist Trump being elected does us no good on economic or security fronts.

  16. How dare Trump put his own people first.

    So-called housing targets are a scam by federal labor they have bought in over a million people no builders can keep up with that.

    In fact builds have been going backwards under the failing federal labor government.

  17. There’s no truth in the rumour that Dutton and the Liberals are concerned that Albanese has invited Anastasia Palaszczuk to join the Federal government as DPM to distract the Queenslanders before the big match.

  18. ‘Socrates says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 8:11 am

    Thanks BK. Attention is heavily distracted from domestic politics, but it is still happening. The story about Labor falling well short on housing targets should be big news…’
    ——————–
    Every single housing supply initiative by Labor has been blocked completely or delayed by the Thug and the Bandicoot.

  19. Superannuation tax reform. Tax increase on accounts of more than $3 million. Blocked by the Thug and the Bandicoot.

  20. Of course Craig Emerson is going to say this… the entire small target plan is his design post 2019…

    Also in agreement Socrates, the complete failure of the housing target should be louder news, and should highlight the failure of incremental market based solutions when seeking to actually resolve issues, as opposed to appearing like you care…

  21. BK @ #215 Tuesday, July 23rd, 2024 – 6:57 am

    State and federal governments are ramping up their push for households to switch their hot-water systems from gas to electric heat pumps, in a bid to meet ambitious climate targets and avert a gas supply shortage. But the cost of the new technology continues to put off consumers, explains Mike Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-pump-up-key-technology-to-get-households-off-gas-20240719-p5jv2p.html

    Sounds like consumers will yet again end up paying the price for this government’s failure to implement proper policies. Just like they do with rooftop solar.

    All so that the fossil fuel industry can continue to make massive profits exporting carbon but pay no tax and bear no cost for doing so.

    Thank goodness people have more sense than to rely on their government to fix this mess.

  22. Stunts putting up legislation when you know you do not have the numbers.

    Buck stops with the federal government remember 57-43 now struggling at barely 50-50 in polls.

    Another six months -12 months with the same incompetents it will be 46-54 federal labor behind if major policy and people/ Minister swaps are not made.

  23. The Thug and the Bandicoot the Destructo Twins.
    Hate Australia.
    Hate aged care.
    Hate the NDIS.
    Hate housing supply.
    Hate religious discrimination reform.
    Love superannuants with more than $3 million in their accounts.
    Love spivs, shonks and shysters.
    Hated aged people.
    Love housing shortages.

  24. Not sure what points to Labor getting a majority at this point. They are trending down in polling, the government is basically now seen as a disappointment, people don’t think the country is heading in a positive direction and it will be difficult to turn that perception around. Most likely will be returned as a minority government because they are seen as the least worst option but will likely lose a lot of seats, and the LNP could return to government if perceptions of Labor get worse than they are now.

  25. Pathetic. Trump (Dutton’s role model) is a demented malignant narcissist. NOW they they think it might be time to talk about Trump’s cognitive state. BTW, Trump is not doing ‘mistakes’ or ‘gaffes’. Trump enters delusional states associated with progressive dementia. He doesn’t mistake Haley for Pelosi. He is delusional in believing that Hales was in Pelosi’s job. He doesn’t mistake Obama for Biden. He has delusions that Obama is the President and that he is running against Obama.

    And when he is not in a delusional state associated with his progressive dementia his policy nostrums include a 2,000km moat, nuking hurricanes and injecting bleach into covid patients.

    He is ALWAYS malignant. Dutton!

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/22/election-trump-harris

  26. I think the biggest problem for Albo and labor is that many people seem to think, what’s the point of them, what have they done. With that frame of mind people may think going back to the coalition (as useless as they were/are) wouldn’t hurt. That won’t happen as the coalition won’t be picking up too many seats.
    I don’t mind the idea of a minority labor government, with the support of the teals tbh.
    Getting the likes of Zoe Daniel, Zali Steggall, David Pocock for example, into the tent would be a good thing. Hell, make a couple of ’em ministers.

  27. “Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather has made clear the minor party’s policies are aimed at achieving a real decline in housing values over time to ­ensure the next generation has a better chance of buying a home

    Mr Chandler-Mather said that Labor had failed to comprehend that “the social contract has been broken”, and that an “entire generation of people who previously, I think, probably would have got involved in the Labor Party have abandoned them”.”

    His not wrong, and its nice to have at least one party brave enough to point out you cant have your cake and eat it too when it comes to the housing crisis…

    Its Chandler-Mather though, so i look forward to all the frothing responses


  28. Australia’s foreign policy via its support for Israel’s government is under strain like never before following claims of genocide at The Hague and now findings that Palestinians are subject to apartheid, says Farah Abdurahman.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/icj-apartheid-findings-over-illegal-israel-settlements-put-australias-foreign-policy-at-the-brink/

    Can some one please explain to me why Israel is the most important ally on Asian continent, strategically or otherwise?

  29. Sohar

    “Somethings ain’t gunna change either way.”

    Wouldn’t it be great if Australian voters could get information like that BEFORE they voted too.

  30. Boerwar

    “Every single housing supply initiative by Labor has been blocked completely or delayed by the Thug and the Bandicoot.”

    Yes and Labor needs to keep reminding people of that. They might also consider other policy changes. Blind Freddie can see that our housing industry needs structural reform, not a short term funding boost.

  31. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 9:30 am

    Wouldn’t it be great if Australian voters could get information like that BEFORE they voted too.

    ______

    Hear! Hear!

  32. ‘Henry says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 9:24 am

    I think the biggest problem for Albo and labor is that many people seem to think, what’s the point of them, what have they done. With that frame of mind people may think going back to the coalition (as useless as they were/are) wouldn’t hurt. That won’t happen as the coalition won’t be picking up too many seats.
    I don’t mind the idea of a minority labor government, with the support of the teals tbh.
    Getting the likes of Zoe Daniel, Zali Steggall, David Pocock for example, into the tent would be a good thing. Hell, make a couple of ’em ministers.’
    ———————–
    The positions advocated by the latter require a minimum of a $300 billion rejig of the economy requiring the disappearance of around half a million jobs. Say that really quickly and nobody will notice, right?

    Sure. Some of those jobs will be replaced by the Green Revolution.

    But whole industries, towns and regions will have their economies disappear.

    Extremist populists do not want to talk about that. They just want to stunt, get a few wins at the margins and brag about that.

    In the interim it is easier for them all to just block, block, delay and delay.

  33. Soc

    On the construction industry, I agree. We need root and branch reform, be it from phoenixing builders who, before they go under, deliver an average of forty per cent new builds with significant faults, to cleaning out the CFMEU.

    In terms of quality standards, the industry self-regulates like a rabid dog.

  34. US and NATO and other European nations support Ukraine in Putin war because if Putins wins in Ukraine, he could start attacking other European nations( atleast that is argument). Hence, Putin needs to be stopped at all cost. That is a fair enough strategical and national interest concern in helping Ukraine.


  35. Pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 7:36 am
    NDIS under Shorten has blown after more than two years of commentary by Labor its heading for 100 billion.
    Fed labor is happy to be in government but does not take responsibility blaming everyone else but themselves.
    The guilty party.

    Do you want Project 2025 to be implemented?

  36. Something to remember Trump for: $8 trillion addition to the national debt in just four years.

    He is promising more of the same. Trump could bring the world’s financial system crashing down around all our ears. Dutton!

    Biden got the US out of Afghanistan.
    Biden stopped the US going into Ukraine.
    Biden stopped China from invading Taiwan.

    Not even Biden could stop the competing bloodthirsty genocidal maniacs who run Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.


  37. Pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 8:21 am
    How dare Trump put his own people first.

    Ladies and Gentlemen
    I present you PP, who supports Project 2025.

    PP
    Does Dutton support Project 2025 in Australia? Is that the reason he went to America recently?

Comments Page 5 of 20
1 4 5 6 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *