Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. What is the point of Labor? #679:

    ‘@jonkudelka
    Pulling up the ladder sounds pretty much peak labor to me.’
    ‘@MichaelWestBiz
    Not very Labor of them
    Public will continue to subsidise private school funds after inquiry – govt shoots down move to curb tax breaks’

  2. LB – that Max C-M quote is absolutely spot on. Housing is simply too expensive in this country and I completely agree that the social contract is basically broken after 30 years of neoliberal economic policy started under Hawke & Keating and then turbocharged by Howard. It seems pretty clear there needs to be a managed decline of house prices relative to incomes

    BW – none of Labor’s so calleed housing ‘policies’ are going to do Jack shit, they’re woefully insufficient and you know it. The greens were right to block the HAFF because they managed to get an extra $3 billion of REAL money to be spent on fixing up public & social housing now, help to buy / shared equity is ultimately yet another subsidy to purchasers that will only drive up prices further so is the opposite of good policy, and giving tax handouts to property developers to make a measly 10% of properties ‘affordable’ (and the definition of affordable in this context borders on sophistry) is ridiculous. then we have the housing targets and agreements with the states, which will never be met on current trajectories

    In short, the ALP has been a dismal failure on housing policy, and even if the greens and coalition had rolled over those policies would not make the slightest bit of difference – they are a bandaid on an amputated limb

    Perhaps one day the ALP will be able to utter the words public housing in a context other than Albo’s ‘log cabin’ story

  3. What’s the point of the Thug and the Bandicoot?
    Nothing but delay and destruction.
    Thug is laughing his arse off at the Bandicoot.

  4. Funding for private schools while public schools struggle… check

    A continued focus of housing as a commodity as opposed to a necessity… check

    Focus on surplus to try and look like the better economic managers… while the Coalition continues to be seen as the better managers (its almost as if that shit doesnt matter)… check

    Pulling the ladder up indeed…

  5. PageBoi says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 9:56 am
    LB – that Max C-M quote is absolutely spot on. Housing is simply too expensive in this country and I completely agree that the social contract is basically broken after 30 years of neoliberal economic policy started under Hawke & Keating and then turbocharged by Howard. It seems pretty clear there needs to be a managed decline of house prices relative to incomes

    BW – none of Labor’s so calleed housing ‘policies’ are going to do Jack shit, they’re woefully insufficient and you know it. The greens were right to block the HAFF because they managed to get an extra $3 billion of REAL money to be spent on fixing up public & social housing now, help to buy / shared equity is ultimately yet another subsidy to purchasers that will only drive up prices further so is the opposite of good policy, and giving tax handouts to property developers to make a measly 10% of properties ‘affordable’ (and the definition of affordable in this context borders on sophistry) is ridiculous. then we have the housing targets and agreements with the states, which will never be met on current trajectories

    In short, the ALP has been a dismal failure on housing policy, and even if the greens and coalition had rolled over those policies would not make the slightest bit of difference – they are a bandaid on an amputated limb

    Perhaps one day the ALP will be able to utter the words public housing in a context other than Albo’s ‘log cabin’ story

    _____

    Just so that I can follow the logic:

    1. When Greens and the Coalition block Labor policy, it is due to Labor putting up poor (“Jack shit”) policy

    2. When Greens and Labor pass policy, it is due to the Greens putting up good policy.

    Is that correct? 🙂

  6. LB

    Keeping welfare payments below the poverty line – check
    Pointless and dehumanising ‘mutual obligations’ – Check
    (although the ‘mutual’ doesn’t seem to extend to the government to provide a livable payment)
    Asylum seekers sent to offshore gulags run by questionable entities – check
    Health care run into the ground – check
    ideologically driven increases to charges of humanities degrees – check
    universities forced to rely on foreign students due to chronic underfunding – check

  7. Griff, as a current Green voter, I would argue that if Labor and the Greens work together to pass policy, its generally not as good as it could have been, but its better then it would have been.

    I would argue that it passes because Labor and the Greens are prepared to negotiate.

    However, negotiation is useless when the initial premise is flawed; at that point the policy should be ditched and reworked from the start.

  8. The Gazumped Greens will be “frothing” upon realising that they have allowed themselves to “used” by the political school bully, performing like puppets for the Australia version of MAGA while desperately seeking relevance in an attempt to be significant.

    It no wonder the Teals have become the third “party” of choice as the “duped” Greens squabble amongst themselves.

    (Dear Greens, that’s an example of the dibble you serve up daily in an attempt to be significant. Are you a Greens Party or just a mini me liberal look alike ?)

    Boerwar is correct, the Thug can’t believe his luck with all the little Bandicoots doing his mischief for the Liberals.

  9. Griff,

    If the greens and the coalition block ALP policy it is usually for vastly different reasons.

    The coalition block things because to them chaos is a ladder – division is an end to itself

    the Greens actually want to improve the shite policies the ALP serve up, like they did in making the HAFF expenditure amounts a floor instead of a ceiling, and by extracting the extra $3b of real funding to fix up existing social housing and make it available

    they are not the same thing

    If the ALP maybe grew a spine and presented some policies that might actually change things for the better then perhaps they’d be more likely to win support in the parliament

  10. goll says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:18 am
    The Gazumped Greens will be “frothing” upon realising that they have allowed themselves to “used” by the political school bully, performing like puppets for the Australia version of MAGA while desperately asking relevance in an attempt to be significant.

    It no wonder the Teals have become the third “party” of choice as the “duped” Greens squabble amongst themselves.

    (Dear Greens, that’s an example of the dibble you serve up daily in an attempt to be significant. Are you a Greens Party or just a mini me liberal look alike ?)

    Boerwar is correct, the Thug can’t believe his luck with all the little Bandicoots doing his mischief for the Liberals.

    _________

    I know that the Teals are not a party. Just imagine if they decided to group and went for the Senate…

  11. goll, I once again asked.. how have the Greens been used?

    The Greens stuck by their guns, and werent used by Labor to pass subpar policy that would have only damaged the Greens baseline support and done piss all…

    Also not sure why your collating the Teals (which arnt an official party) with gaining support (evidence please) with a loss from the Greens (evidence please); hell, the latest polling shows a loss of support to others and a firming/gaining by the Greens.

  12. Kamala Harris has secured three-quarters of the delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

  13. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:22 am
    Kamala Harris has secured three-quarters of the delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
    ______________________________
    Has Harris done an interview yet?

  14. PageBoi says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:20 am
    Griff,

    If the greens and the coalition block ALP policy it is usually for vastly different reasons.

    The coalition block things because to them chaos is a ladder – division is an end to itself

    the Greens actually want to improve the shite policies the ALP serve up, like they did in making the HAFF expenditure amounts a floor instead of a ceiling, and by extracting the extra $3b of real funding to fix up existing social housing and make it available

    they are not the same thing

    If the ALP maybe grew a spine and presented some policies that might actually change things for the better then perhaps they’d be more likely to win support in the parliament

    _______

    They are different because reasons! And yet the same action. I believe you 🙂

    To see the centre-left and the far-left cooperate in Germany, the centre and the left cooperate in France, and just now the centre-left and far-left come together to endorse a single candidate in the US, makes me sad to see what The Greens are doing in Australia.

  15. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:08 am
    [Funding for private schools while public schools struggle… check]

    [A continued focus of housing as a commodity as opposed to a necessity… check]

    [Focus on surplus to try and look like the better economic managers… while the Coalition continues to be seen as the better managers (its almost as if that shit doesnt matter)… check]

    [Pulling the ladder up indeed…]

    And that sums up why the Gazumped Greens keep voting with LNP to oppose legislation to correct the institutionalised corruption after nine years of LNP governments.
    The LGNP coalition is it now ?

    The Greens, the tool of the new LGNP Coalition.

  16. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 9:06 am
    The Thug and the Bandicoot the Destructo Twins.
    Hate Australia.
    Hate aged care.
    Hate the NDIS.
    Hate housing supply.
    Hate religious discrimination reform.
    Love superannuants with more than $3 million in their accounts.
    Love spivs, shonks and shysters.
    Hated aged people.
    Love housing shortages

    Boerwar has taken up Trump style comms

  17. Griff… a few quibbles.

    the centre-left and the far-left cooperate in Germany… are hardly cooperating anymore, the left left is facing the classic issue of the centre diluting policy, and the far right in Germany is in ascendance because of the dilution of the left and the centre right nature of the German government not addressing the issues (broken record I know)

    the centre and the left cooperate in France… except Macrons party continues to work with the right as opposed to the left https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/macron-center-right-join-forces-against-left-in-parliament-jobs (which backfired again https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-20/blow-to-macron-as-far-left-keeps-key-french-parliament-post)

    and just now the centre-left and far-left come together to endorse a single candidate in the US… except the Democrats are hardly centre left (again, they are centre right if that) and AOC etc are hardly far left, considering they all support a soc dem capitalist state (so centre left)

    Heres the historic rule; if the left works with the centre in a way that simply kicks the can along the road and doesnt address the issues causing a growth of support for the right… then the left dies, the centre shifts right, and the right ascend to power.

  18. The “conservative” Greens, willingly supporting the LGNP opposition agenda to prevent progressive government and Lordbain admits the “conservative Greens culpability !

    A total capitulation and lack of self awareness.
    The original Greens just cringe at the willingness to be swallowed by the conservatives.

  19. goll, when did I admit the conservative greens culpability?

    If your going to put words in my mouth, you better back it up…

  20. Max is blocking government funding for social housing.
    Max is stopping housing development in his electorate.
    But Max cares about the homeless.
    What is the point of Max?

  21. Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:34 am
    Griff… a few quibbles.

    the centre-left and the far-left cooperate in Germany… are hardly cooperating anymore, the left left is facing the classic issue of the centre diluting policy, and the far right in Germany is in ascendance because of the dilution of the left and the centre right nature of the German government not addressing the issues (broken record I know)

    the centre and the left cooperate in France… except Macrons party continues to work with the right as opposed to the left https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/macron-center-right-join-forces-against-left-in-parliament-jobs (which backfired again https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-20/blow-to-macron-as-far-left-keeps-key-french-parliament-post)

    and just now the centre-left and far-left come together to endorse a single candidate in the US… except the Democrats are hardly centre left (again, they are centre right if that) and AOC etc are hardly far left, considering they all support a soc dem capitalist state (so centre left)

    Heres the historic rule; if the left works with the centre in a way that simply kicks the can along the road and doesnt address the issues causing a growth of support for the right… then the left dies, the centre shifts right, and the right ascend to power.

    ________

    You can quibble. I am aware that some far-left prefer an alternative approach. I am just not sure that I am on board with breaking the system just yet. Or breaking the system further because apparently the system is already broken 😉

    p.s. Bernie is Centre-Left? It all depends on where you are standing I suppose.

  22. The hero of many far left in here, fruit loop Maduro has threatened a bloodbath

    “Lula raises alarm over Maduro’s ‘bloodbath’ warning to Venezuela
    Brazilian leader says he was ‘frightened’ by counterpart’s warnings of ‘bloodbath’ if he loses to Edmundo González”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/22/lula-maduro-venezuela-election-result

    He has also threatened Guyana with invasion of ‘disputed’ territory.
    Hopefully, Sir Kier sends some gunships 😡

  23. Democrats urge Harris to look to battleground states for VP pick.
    “That is the first presidential decision that Vice President Harris has, so she’s got a lot of good choices ahead of her,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told reporters at the Capitol, rattling off a number of Democratic governors — Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Roy Cooper of North Carolina among them — along with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) as possible choices.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4786852-harris-vice-president-pick-midwest-governors/

  24. Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:47 am
    Griff, the system is already broken (unless the rise of the fascist right is a feature and not a bug)

    _______

    It appears I have accurately preempted your response 🙂

  25. Picking Gretchen Whitmer and having 2 women face off against him
    will blow that orange pee-fiend’s one neuron mind 😆 😆 😆

  26. UK cartoons and other miscellany

    Graeme Keys

    Jonsey

    Ella Baron

    Tom Gauld for @newcientist

    Guy Venables

    Ben Jennings

    Stokoe

    Christian Adams

    Morten Morland

    Matt

    Brighty

    Patrick Blower

    Dave Whamond

    Dennis Goris

    Garthtoons

    ==================================
    The French Connection

    Placide
    “Kamala Harris. I will catch her with my little finger, just like the others.”

    Chaunu
    “They must have had a puncture!”
    [The Tour de France has finished in Nice, but a prime minister has still not be chosen.]

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

    Pup Fiction

    For Lars

    A year ago, before the GOP primaries were over, I made a bet with a friend that neither Trump nor Biden would be taking the oath of office on Jan 20, 2025. The odds just got a lot better–for me and for the country. 1/6— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) July 22, 2024

  27. Griff, I mean if you look at the modern capitalist system and dont think it needs a major rejigging…

    Also deff not happy with this news; Harris will be keeping Bidens campaign team. I get that time s of the essence but come on…

  28. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:38 am
    [goll, when did I admit the conservative greens culpability?]

    [If your going to put words in my mouth, you better back it up…]

    That’s very LGNP of you !

  29. Labor must strike a deal with the Coalition to reform aged care funding by next month or risk more nursing homes going to the wall and leaving vulnerable older Australians in care limbo

    So the bandicoot/stunt bundt and his green faeries are making perfect the enemy of the good once more, what contemptuous filth 😡

  30. Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee after winning enough delegates.

  31. Some of us don’t agree Greens policy is better, and “compromise” would make Labor policy worse.

    Look at how Chinese consumers are feeling in an environment of falling house prices and a rapid disassembly of the housing market.

    Perhaps both could co-operate and bring down demand instead? You know, cut migration?

  32. The fundamental comparison between China and the Greens is that they both do command and control economy.

    This is clear when the Greens want caps on everything, free everything, and wages increased by 40%.

    All by diktat.

    China’s command and control economy has delivered the Greens’ wet dream: 65-80 million empty apartments, a totally trashed ecology, huge numbers of species headed towards extinction, the biggest naval build up in world peace time history, the highest CO2 emissions on the planet, the most coal burned on the planet, filthy air, filthy rivers, collapsing groundwater basins, polluted seas, falling wages, rising unemployment and youth unemployment believed to be well north of 20%.
    Enjoy!

  33. BW, those in glass houses shouldnt throw stones… Australia has one of the worst rates of extinction on the planet, and lets not downplay one of the highest per capita emission rates.

    But then again, China bad, Labor good…

  34. Yes, I think Labor and the Greens can collaborate and meet mutual objectives of improving housing affordability, reducing emissions, and protecting the environment by significantly cutting migration. It would be a progressive win that puts low income Australians first.

  35. If Labor had have committed to cut the apron strings with the fossil fuel cartel from the start of this term and to negotiate every outcome with the Teal/Greens, rather than the L/NP, they would be flying now.

    It is the Labor right strategists, that are captured by political donations and who seek bipartisanship with the extreme L/NP, that is holding Australia back.

  36. The Resources Minister just approved a raft of new gas & CCS exploration licences.We export 80% of our gas – & the resources tax is so woeful that Aussies barely benefit. Most of it goes to Japan who then export the same amount to other markets#auspol https://t.co/Yn8kfrHnpM— Dr Sophie Scamps MP (@SophieScamps) July 23, 2024

    Utterly captured by the fossil fuel cartel.

  37. The Greens are always 100% right. Negotiate with that?

    They are going to deliver Zero Net Forty. That is, less than 16 years to deliver an outcome that will destroy half a million jobs and will shift at least $300 billion around the economy. Negotiate with that?
    The additional costs to the budget of the Greens various free promises? Add somewhere between $50 and $100 billion on top of that. Negotiate with that?
    The Greens want to get rid of the ADF. Negotiate with that?
    The Greens want wages to increase by 40%. Negotiate with that?
    The Greens want public ownership of all housing. Negotiate with that?
    The Greens want to close down the following industries: all livestock industries, coal, oil, gas, olive, wine grape, cotton and rice. Negotiate with that?
    The point is that the Greens have always an excellent reason to delay the implementation of everything by at least six months and to block the rest. Negotiate with that?

    The Thug is laughing all the way to the political bank as the Greens hand him the chaos and delays he so desperately needs. Negotiate with that?

    The Greens and the Liberals astroturf every housing development and delay every housing funding initiative. Negotiate with that?

    The Greens and the Liberals astroturf every new windfarm. Negotiate with that?

    The Greens and the Liberals have been stoking communalist hatreds about Gaza. Sicko stuff to harvest domestic votes.

    We all know the game here.

  38. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 12:24 pm

    ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recorded its largest weekly rise since Apr 2021, jumping 5.9pts to hit a 6mth high. Each of the sub-indices rose by at least 5pts: https://x.com/ANZ_Research/status/1815530011140424086
    ———————–
    Well, that is bad news for the Thug and the Bandicoot. They only want bad news. Not good news.

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