Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Concurrence between Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy on a close race, with Newspoll further offering the novelty of best leader polling for both Labor and the Coalition.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor with an two-party of 51-49, unchanged from the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Both leaders record improved personal ratings, with Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 44% and down two on disapproval to 51%, and Peter Dutton up three to 41% and down five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 46-38 to 46-39.

Respondents were also asked to pick favoured Labor and Coalition leaders out of lists of six contenders, with Anthony Albanese recording 28% as preferred Labor leader ahead of 13% for Tania Plibersek, 10% for Bill Shorten, 8% for Jim Chalmers, 4% for Richard Marles and 2% for Chris Bowen. Peter Dutton likewise scored 28%, with Jacinta Price on 14%, Sussan Ley on 6%, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie on 5% apiece and Dan Tehan on 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Also out today is the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll from the Financial Review, which has the Coalition leading for the first time on two-party preferred at 51-49, after the previous results had it at 50-50. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 34% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is at up one to 36% and down one to 39%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-39, out from 43-41 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1060.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor, Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 8 of 20
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  1. Buying a house with friends… can’t see how that goes wrong…

    I can’t possibly imagine why birthrates have plummeted so much…

  2. Lordbain …..A bit of fun then brother….(In answer to the question: “What type of Green are you?”)
    *UK – Light Green and few in number
    *Germany – Dark Green – more in number
    *OZ – Mid Green but underneath with a tinge of pink or red
    Look, a number of my friends profess to be green/Greens and mainly former Labor supporters to boot..
    I tell them them are yearning for their youth when the trees and wilderness in Tassie were their rallying cry.
    These days, as BW points out, said Greens seem to have serious political ambitions to harry Labor and do deals with the Libs. That’s okay, that’s politics but you will have to grow very old before Greens in Oz come anywhere near having any real power and actually take responsible action for their dream time agenda.

  3. Sorry posted this in wrong thread. Which really pissed off TM for some reason?

    Entropysays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 5:50 pm
    Reynolds leaked confidential documents. To the same source that Lehrmann leaked her phone transcripts. Seems like ongoing harassment to me. The real question was this conspiracy to harass her carried out in collaboration between Reynolds, Lehrmann and Albrechtsen? Ironically this could be considered a “tortious conspiracy” if this is the case.

    “Former defence minister Linda Reynolds repeatedly leaked confidential correspondence about Brittany Higgins’ compensation payout to the media according to legal documents filed in the WA Supreme Court in conduct that is alleged to constitute an ongoing “campaign of harassment”.

    The alleged conduct, detailed for the first time in Ms Higgins’ amended defence to Senator Reynolds’ defamation claim, follows legal discovery of Senator Reynolds’ emails, texts and correspondence regarding the rape allegation.

    The amended defence claims Senator Reynolds leaked confidential legal correspondence to The Australian’s columnist Janet Albrechtsen.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/legal-discovery-reveals-linda-reynolds-leaks/news-story/bd2d1b2f85bb35f4135702be6b06aafd

  4. Entropysays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 6:07 pm
    Sorry posted this in wrong thread. Which really pissed off TM for some reason?
    _____________________
    How about you show a bit of respect to Adrian Beaumont.

  5. On the evidence of Reynolds leaking confidential information to Albrechtson re: Higgins, have these two not heard of the Federal Privacy Act? Amazing.
    https://www.news.com.au/national/legal-discovery-reveals-linda-reynolds-leaks/news-story/bd2d1b2f85bb35f4135702be6b06aafd

    This whole saga is becoming a lawyer’s picnic, with I suspect more to come.

    Lordbain

    Who knows? I suggested they would both be wise to settle after the Lee verdict in Lehrmann v Higgins.

  6. So much for the claims of some here that this case would somehow embarrass the Labor Party
    10 days to go and we’ll know.
    To be fair to the Labor Party, they are embarassment proof.
    Though I do think they’ll have to rewrite 60 years of Labor Myth if the Venona Decrypts pertaining to ALP/Soviet, er, ‘relations’are ever released.

  7. Taylormadesays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 6:27 pm
    Entropysays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 6:07 pm
    Sorry posted this in wrong thread. Which really pissed off TM for some reason?
    _____________________
    How about you show a bit of respect to Adrian Beaumont.
    ==================================================

    I posted there in error. I said sorry but only you seem to want to make a huge issue out of it.

  8. LVT…..
    Sorry, have not got the foggiest about your last comment? Albanese/FNQ/luxury – what is this blether about? Normally, I understand you standard English, but his time? Have you been on the turps?

  9. Liberal Reynolds, Liberal Higgins, Liberal Lehrmann, Liberal Morrison…

    The Liberal Show Trial.
    The Liberal Show and Tell Trial.

  10. Pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 7:21 pm
    Finance report todays -Alan Kohler -up now on YouTube for the disbelieving.
    =====================================================

    I’m happy to believe it comes up at 7:21 pm EST. You were citing it at around 6:30 pm EST (4:30 pm WST) time though. When you previously mentioned it though.

  11. Lars, maybe I could knock up a yarn about a former Minister for Defense who failed a female employee who was raped by a Liberal Rising Star who appears to have been protected by people of influence in government, the law, and one eyed media companies.

  12. Granny why not tell us a story about a young man who had to leave employment because of his wife’s determination to stand against political hypocrisy? That sounds like a more interesting story to tell?

  13. C@t has emailed back to say she is deep in unpacking and has internet connection issues.

    She will be back in due course.

  14. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 7:28 pm
    Liberal Reynolds, Liberal Higgins, Liberal Lehrmann, Liberal Morrison…

    The Liberal Show Trial.
    The Liberal Show and Tell Trial.
    =============================================

    Don’t forget Liberal Albrechtsen, she seems to be central coordinator.

  15. You will have to help me out Lars at 7:50pm, I am unaware of any young men who had to leave employment because of their wive’s determination to stand against political hypocrisy.

    Give us the background to what sounds like rivetting stuff.

  16. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 7:51 pm
    Stutchbury quits.
    Or was he pushed?
    ====================================================

    One to many pro-immigration articles i guess. They weren’t being well received by the LNP who were running a scare campaign in that area. It was hardly helpful having the AFR point out that the LNP’s big business mates weren’t onboard with it. As we know they would get their way if the LNP won Government.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-must-avoid-political-overreaction-to-a-bigger-australia-20231120-p5el83

  17. Thanks Entropy. The litigation variant of a car crash. I cringe yet cannot look away. Will this be three for three after Porter and Roberts-Smith?

    We shall see.

  18. Granny that sounds like the former AG from WA WA land you were thinking of earlier. No wait, that was a female former defence Minister. Must be something in the water up there.

  19. That’s an easy one Lars.

    A strong willed young wife who wears the pants in their family told her hubby to stop working for the Minister for Emergency Services in the State Govt., so he did.

    Luckily we have a good welfare safety net in Australia for the unemployed so I wouldn’t be too concerned about him.

  20. Griffsays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 9:01 pm
    Thanks Entropy. The litigation variant of a car crash. I cringe yet cannot look away. Will this be three for three after Porter and Roberts-Smith?

    We shall see.
    ==================================================

    The Liberals again fully in Deeming-Kroger effect mode. Who better to coordinate it all then Kroger’s former partner too.

  21. Is an expression like “wears the pants in the family “ still ok over your neck of the woods Granny?

    It’s a little sexist no?

  22. Granny , what about a 30 yr old woman who enters into a relationship with a 60 yr old politician and is granted political favours by the politician? Is that ok ?

  23. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 9:47 pm
    Granny , what about a 30 yr old woman who enters into a relationship with a 60 yr old politician and is granted political favours by the politician? Is that ok ?
    ==========================================================

    In Barnaby’s case it was more like 50 years and 30 years. Though sleeping with your staffer is never alright.

  24. It’s easy to describe not so easy to do.

    Government has directly built housing before. It’s called Public Housing. The Greens calling to return to doing that is in no way Utopian radical or crazy.

    Why difficult? Budgets. Skills shortages. And no the migrants are not to blame just years of cuts to budgets of housing supply are to blame. Bad planning by governments have caused this and Labor and Greens should cooperate to build supply as fast as possible. (Note I don’t rate the LNP in this. They might surprise) A big help to social cohesion. As is giving those renting a secure tenancy no matter how landlords complain about the power dynamic changing.

    So Labor there is your problem. By sticking to invest to create supply you are slowing down the building of supply. You can do more direct funding without creating a public developer because you already have state government that can spend that money directly on public housing. Just make sure as before the states have to spend it on housing.

  25. Oops sorry

    It’s an and not an or with housing. Do both direct government funding and invest to supply.
    Make it clear in communication you are doing both.

  26. Socrates,

    On the evidence of Reynolds leaking confidential information to Albrechtson re: Higgins, have these two not heard of the Federal Privacy Act? Amazing.
    https://www.news.com.au/national/legal-discovery-reveals-linda-reynolds-leaks/news-story/bd2d1b2f85bb35f4135702be6b06aafd

    This whole saga is becoming a lawyer’s picnic, with I suspect more to come.

    Lordbain

    Who knows? I suggested they would both be wise to settle after the Lee verdict in Lehrmann v Higgins.

    I believe Higgins wanted to settle, but Reynolds refused.

    I have heard gossips that says:
    * Reynolds never lets things go, and
    * the Coalition believe the Higgins cost them government in 2022.

    All very sad. Brittany Higgins is a relatively close neighbour to me in France, and we have friends in common.

    I guess I will not come across her in the streets of Bergerac now.

    But more seriously, how vindictive is Reynolds – no one has come out of that saga looking good.

    But Brittany is young, and she has a good job, and so she will recover from being left with nothing.

  27. Douglas & Milko

    “ I believe Higgins wanted to settle, but Reynolds refused.”

    Yes that was my understanding too.

    When I was a young public servant a top barrister once told me to never fight a court case you could avoid, because victory was never guaranteed. We shall see how Higgins v Reynolds turns out.

    I can’t see how it will do anything other than reinforce perceptions of the Liberal Party as heartless.

  28. Lars at 9:47pm, I can only assume your sage concern about a 60 and 30 year old having a relationship that resulted in political favours wasn’t someone on the LNP side, because like Entropy, I can only think of conservative blokes who have mixed it with the staff.

    You will have to post one of your links so that we can figure out who it was.

  29. Pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 10:30 pm
    The taxpayer wizzed 2.4 million against the wall thanks Albo.
    ===================================================

    You mean thanks Reynolds, even Morrison made it clear where the problem lay in this. Once Morrison said this about it as PM, how was there not going to be a settlement?

    “Scott Morrison has said “sorry” to Brittany Higgins during a parliamentary acknowledgement of victims of bullying, harassment and sexual assaults in the parliamentary workplace.

    “I’m sorry to Ms Higgins for the terrible things that took place here,” he told parliament.

    “The place that should have been a place for safety and contribution, turned out to be a nightmare.”

    He said he was also sorry for those who had endured similar things before her in parliament house.”

    https://theconversation.com/morrison-says-sorry-to-higgins-for-terrible-things-that-happened-176686

  30. Albo aka labor payed the money out not libs.

    Heartless? That’s federal labor the amount of homeless Australians thanks to fed labors disgraceful importation of far too many people is still rising.

  31. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned Tuesday amid bipartisan outrage over her agency’s failure to stop a 20-year-old gunman from opening fire on former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally.
    Cheatle’s departure came after a blistering congressional hearing in which she offered minimal new information about the July 13 assassination attempt in western Pennsylvania, which marked the Secret Service’s most stunning failure since President Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981.
    The director vowed to get to the bottom of what she acknowledged was a colossal security lapse, but politicians on both sides of the aisle said her assurances didn’t inspire confidence and urged her to step down.
    Cheatle in an internal email told employees she was resigning “with a heavy heart,” saying she didn’t want calls for her to quit to become a distraction. “The scrutiny over the last week has been intense and will continue to remain as our operational tempo increases,” she wrote. “However, this incident does not define us.”

  32. Kamala Harris made the first public speech of her presidential campaign, promising to unite Democrats during a visit to the vital swing state of Wisconsin, and comparing Donald Trump to the sorts of criminals she used to prosecute in California.
    “Before I was elected vice-president, before I was elected United States senator, I was elected attorney general of the state of California, and I was a courtroom prosecutor before then,” Harris said. “And in those roles, I took on perpetrators of all kinds: predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So hear me when I say, I know Donald Trump’s type.”
    The crowd loved that line, and Harris kept at it:
    And in this campaign, I promise you, I will proudly put my record against his any day of the week.
    As attorney general of California, I took on one of our country’s largest for-profit colleges that was scamming students. Donald Trump ran a for-profit college that scammed students. As a prosecutor, I specialized in cases involving sexual abuse. Well, Trump was found liable for committing sexual abuse.
    As attorney general of California, I took on the big Wall Street banks and held them accountable for fraud. Donald Trump was just found guilty of fraud on 34 counts.
    Let’s also make no mistake, this campaign is not just about … Donald Trump. This campaign is about who we fight for. This is about who we fight for.

  33. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    “Trump is a transformational politician. That’s his strength and it’s near unique. The ultimate question, however, is whether his transformations assist or hurt Australia. As for the pro-Trump populist right in this country, why can’t it ditch its mindless cheering and start to assess where Trump might be good or bad for Australia?”, laments Paul Kelly.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/will-trumpvance-compact-be-good-for-australia/news-story/fa8748262da02fe67201132ccbfdc50a?amp=
    Anthony Albanese is expected to freshen up his frontbench in the coming days, amid warnings by colleagues not to make enemies given his and the government’s shaky standing in the polls. Phil Coorey says the shake-up, which the prime minister flagged in May, is not expected to be major, given his desire to maintain the stability that has been a hallmark of the government, and the fact that few ministers intend to retire at the next election.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-mulls-reshuffle-as-colleagues-urge-him-to-tread-lightly-20240723-p5jvqm
    A fascinating study into how our standards of living have changed since before COVID helps to explain why some Australians feel no pain. Ross Gittind dissects the study’s findings and forms a conclusion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cost-of-living-crisis-why-only-some-of-us-are-feeling-the-pinch-20240723-p5jvu2.html
    The NSW Labor Party has been forced to cancel a series of fringe events and employ the “largest security contingent” in the division’s history as Sussex Street prepares for a state conference to be rocked by major demonstrations and potential political extremism. Max Maddison writes that while the Israel-Palestine debate has long caused ructions across Labor’s factions, the months-long bombardment of Gaza after the October 7 terrorist attacks has seen simmering anger further fuel the divide within the party and across the community.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-engages-unprecedented-security-contingent-for-state-conference-20240716-p5ju49.html
    New apartment buyers are shunning unit blocks by builders and developers who have been refused, or have declined to apply for, a quality rating under the NSW government system designed to instil fresh confidence in the property industry. As gold-star rated developers report a spike in business from buyers, the two-year-old Sydney scheme might soon be extended to Victoria, the ACT and Queensland, reports Sue Williams.
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/the-gold-star-system-driving-dodgy-property-developers-out-20240717-p5juk0.html
    Victoria’s major road and rail projects mean we are building fewer houses, at greater expense. The construction union’s grip is affecting costs, efficiency, quality and the availability of labour, writes Harley Dale.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/can-t-get-a-tradie-the-cfmeu-s-stranglehold-on-major-projects-is-choking-all-of-us-20240722-p5jvhy.html
    Nick Toscano reports that costs are climbing again after a stretch of cold weather coincided with a wind power drought, forcing expensive gas plants to fill the gap.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/cold-spell-and-wind-drought-push-electricity-prices-higher-20240723-p5jvvl.html
    Peter Dutton’s sketchy plan for Australia to go nuclear is nothing more than a political distraction with no actual benefits for the country, writes Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/duttons-nuclear-delusion-an-exercise-in-stupidity,18797
    Elizabeth Knight posits that the government’s CFMEU response plays into the Coalition’s hands.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-the-government-s-cfmeu-response-plays-into-the-coalition-s-hands-20240723-p5jvsu.html
    The corporate cop’s probe into big four bank ANZ market trades during a $14 billion government bond sale involves suspected illegality and is more than a “please explain”, its chairman Joe Longo says. In a wide-ranging interview with The Australian Financial Review, the head of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission also detailed new initiatives to crack down on insider trading, previewed an intervention into the private credit market, and hit back at claims ASIC is a “toothless tiger”.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-suspect-anz-broke-the-law-in-14b-bond-sale-asic-20240723-p5jvw4
    According to The Age, Dean Martin – a former Rebels president and CFMEU delegate who was once in a relationship with Senator Lidia Thorpe – is to be sent to New Zealand.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/dustin-martin-s-bikie-uncle-to-be-deported-20240717-p5jucx.html
    With digital media and the rise of streaming music services, the sale of physical albums and singles has dried up. Artists now rely on making a living from live performances, but that, too, is under threat, explains Michael Sainsbury.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/australian-music-loses-out-in-shift-to-streaming-ticketing-monopoly-struggling-venues/
    Sharlotte Shou explains how Australia’s infant food labelling’s ‘health halo effect’ risks leaving babies under-nourished.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/24/how-infant-food-labelling-risks-leaving-australian-babies-undernourished-ntwnfb
    Meanwhile, hundreds of highly caffeinated beverages have been removed from shelves in a crackdown on potentially harmful energy drinks. Beverages with almost double the maximum allowed caffeine content are among almost 700 drinks seized during inspections of more than 100 retailers in South Australia. Inspectors found 18 were selling non-compliant energy drink products, SA Health said yesterday. Warning letters were issued to 13 businesses and two were fined a total of $3,000.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/23/energy-drinks-with-nine-times-as-much-caffeine-as-a-can-of-coca-cola-removed-from-australian-shelves
    Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Google face fines of almost $800,000 a day if they don’t front up over efforts to combat online abuse, explains Angus Thompson. He tells us the companies have been given six months to report back to Australia’s eSafety commissioner, Julie Inman Grant, on efforts to lift their standards as part of a tough new approach requiring half-yearly disclosures for the next two years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wilful-blindness-big-fines-for-tech-giants-that-ignore-abuse-material-20240723-p5jvup.html
    The head of the US Secret Service has resigned amid bipartisan outrage over the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/head-of-us-secret-service-resigns-after-trump-rally-shooting-20240724-p5jw1a.html
    Running Kamala Harris may actually be a political masterstroke for the Democrats, argues Steve Phillips.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/23/kamala-harris-elecion-masterstroke-democrats
    Kamala Harris frames herself as everything Trump is not, and Democrats are behind her. Writes Farrah Tomazin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-first-campaign-stop-harris-frames-herself-as-everything-trump-is-not-20240723-p5jvwh.html
    GOP attacks against Kamala Harris were already bad – they are about to get worse, writes Professor of Politics, Stephen J. Farnsworth.
    https://theconversation.com/gop-attacks-against-kamala-harris-were-already-bad-they-are-about-to-get-worse-235160
    Presidential candidate Donald Trump has become notorious for his aggression and bullying, which the mainstream media is happy to ignore, writes Rosemary Sorensen who says the media have normalised it and it’s time to take control.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/media-has-normalised-trumps-bullying–its-time-to-take-control,18799

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding


    Simon Letch

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Geoff Pryor

    Fiona Katauskas

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    From the US





















  34. Kevin Cate@KevinCate
    ·
    3h
    NEW REUTERS/IPSOS POLL:
    @KamalaHarris
    42%
    Donald Trump 38%
    RFK Jr. 8%
    (MoE +/-3%)

    The expected honeymoon. This is very likely messing with Trump’s head.

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