Adrian Beaumont update at 11:40am: I’ve done an article for The Conversation on Biden’s withdrawal. It’s too early to analyse polls of Harris vs Trump as Harris hasn’t been a presidential candidate until today. Economic data is improving, and Harris is much younger than Trump. But it’s a very risky move as Harris hasn’t been battle-tested in primaries, and failed in 2020. However, Democrats needed to take the risk as Biden’s age is of great concern and he’s already behind. US Senate polls have the Democrats doing well, implying Biden was a drag.
Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential election race, “to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Discuss.
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C@tmommasays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 6:30 am
sprocket_ @ #1173 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 6:23 am
And the Tier 1 NYTimes/Sienna has Kamala in front…
Trump 43
Harris 44
RFK Jr 5
Stein 1
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/25/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html
I thought Fubar or Badthinker (I forget which, they’re both the same anyways), said Kamala Harris had run out of puff already?
She’s only just started to gain momentum!
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BTSays also says that. 🙂
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Team Katichsays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 8:07 am
Yes we, Kam!
———————-
Those boots were made for walking….
”
Although both look cheesy I will add anothe cheesy phrase
Kamala Harris walking ( a la Johnny Walker walking).
Obama is set to endorse on the Weekend. This will lead headlines for a day. Although it was perhaps not by design, it was a crafty measure to hold off his endorsement to maintain momentum. The VP pick will also be a big event and I dare say that will happen mid next week. It has to be done before the virtual rollcall starts.
The first state level poll I have seen was for New Hampshire where Trump had just taken a small lead over Biden previously, Harris is now leading by 6 points. I suspect this what is going to occur with Virginia, Michigan, then probably Pennsylvania and Wisconsin too. And if the Harris team manage that it is the ballgame.
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Confessionssays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 8:36 am
And JD Vance is looking like an even worse VP pick than Sarah Palin! For all her unsuitability for office, Palin at least fired up the Republican base. JD can’t get people at his rallies to laugh at his jokes. And there’s these weird stories circulating about how he tried to have sex with a couch. WTF? Again, as always with Donald Trump, he just attracts the weird.
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Confessions
Ref: weird stories
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
Couchfucker, A Hillybilly Elegy Story:
In the dim glow of the late afternoon sun through the trailer’s coal-dust stained windows cast its warm embrace upon the living room, J.D. found himself captivated by the soft, inviting curves of the worn-out couch.
It wasn’t just a piece of furniture to him; it was a comforting presence, whispering promises of hidden delights through its frayed fabric and sagging cushions. His fingers traced the patterns of the upholstery, feeling an inexplicable connection, an intimacy that transcended the ordinary.
He often sat there for hours, losing himself in the tactile sensation of the fabric against his skin, the faint scents of his family’s history embedded in its fibers. It was an intersection, like his feelings during the annual family reunion, that combined shame and arousal.
J.D. had to admit it to himself; he was polyfurniamorous.
Everything in the room struck a deep chord of desire; his infatuations and lusts weren’t limited to the couch. The antique-styled melamine coffee table with its printed veneer surface stirred something deep within him. He admired the craftsmanship, the way each groove and edge seemed to beckon his touch.
On quiet evenings, he would pour himself a glass of corn liquor and sit by the table, imagining the hands that once crafted it, the lives it had silently observed. He knew the stains on its surface would tell many a tale of life in the holler, particularly under UV light.
The old armchair by the window held a special place in J.D.’s heart. It was where he felt the most at ease, the most understood. The chair’s worn velour surface and creaky joints seemed to respond to his every move, almost as if it were alive, sharing his burdens and joys. He would sink into its embrace face down, feeling the weight of his troubles lift as he closed his eyes and let the chair cradle him.
In those moments of release, J.D. felt a deep, unspoken bond, a romance that defied the conventional, a love that was as enduring and unyielding as life in the holler itself.
“
Vance is a good pick for Trump imo. I just hope Vance tries to get as much of the limelight as possible.
RFK jr is antivaxxer, if he drops out it doesn’t help Harris much. Jill Stein’s voters aren’t switching to Harris, the Greens Party in America isn’t your Australian Greens.
Harris hasn’t got the nomination yet and she’s not a particularly good candidate.
=========================================================
If Team Trump is hanging back atm, it doesn’t mean they’ve been blindsided, because there’s going to be an Open Democratic Convention.
It may be stitched up for Harris by Day 1, but that is a big assumption 24 days out.
Keeping it coming BT.
You’ve been wrong on most of your postings.
When was that federal election again? August wasn’t it.
Is Victoria around? I value their input.
Why are my peers assholes?
Just saw this posted on X: “Trump should be forced to carry Vance full term. No exceptions.”
OK, this is an interesting couple of polls from University of New Hampshire. They are highly rated and with big samples.
Harris is matching Bidens 2020 result in New Hampshire and Maine. Ok OK, not swing states (Although Maine has one EC vote that is). And yes, early days. But this, to me, is very encouraging.
Trump could dump Vance but it would make him look more chaotic than normal; as hard as that is to believe. Flip flopping on a VP choice is not done lightly. The democrats were forced to do it in 1972 as Thomas Eagleton turned out to be a nutcase and they inserted JFK’s brother in law (and later Arnold Schwarzenegger father in law) Sargent Shriver into the role (he also happens to be the last member of a democratic presidential ticket who was anti-abortion).
Of course there is the issue of if not J.D. Vance whom does Trump then pick? Is the new candidate going to be just as bad? They can hardly go for a more moderate Republican as they booted most of them out and those that are still around don’t want to be Trump’s next hanging target.
Young voters join KHive
Harris bid energizes young voters as registrations surge
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/24/2257584/-Harris-bid-energizes-young-voters-as-registrations-surge?pm_source=ICYMI&pm_campaign=ICYMI07252024
“After President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign on Sunday and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the next Democratic nominee, Vote.org reportedly registered 38,500 new voters over the next 48 hours. This represents a 700% surge over the previous 48 hours, with most of those voters being ages 34 and younger.
That beats the previous best day of the 2024 cycle, which came on National Voter Registration Day in September when pop superstar Taylor Swift posted an Instagram story urging her followers to get registered. That message helped spur over 35,000 new voter registrations.
The latest surge in registrations comes as Harris and other Democratic candidates see a flood of donations. Since Harris entered the race, ActBlue has recorded $179 million in donations to Democratic candidates and causes. That’s just part of a historic flood of over $250 million that poured in since Harris became the nominee-apparent.
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So voter registrations and donations for Democrats
TK – New Hampshire and Maine are actually swing states as they are always fairly close. It is just they both only have 4 EC votes each and voted democrat every election since 2000. A win there is as important as Nevada.
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Team Katichsays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 10:37 am
OK, this is an interesting couple of polls from University of New Hampshire. They are highly rated and with big samples.
Harris is matching Bidens 2020 result in New Hampshire and Maine. Ok OK, not swing states (Although Maine has one EC vote that is). And yes, early days. But this, to me, is very encouraging.
”
Separate polls from UNH and Saint Anselm College show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in New Hampshire
https://www.wmur.com/article/kamala-harris-donald-trump-new-hampshire-polls-725/61703334
“In a general election matchup, a poll from the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College shows Harris with 50 percent over Trump’s 44 percent.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is at 3 percent.
There were 2,083 registered voters who responded to the Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from July 24-25. This poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.1%.
Meanwhile, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll also out on Thursday shows a similar spread, with Harris at 49 percent of support. Trump is second at 43 percent. Kennedy has 4 percent in that poll
B.S.F
I dunno. Shall we say “close(ish) states”? Last time Maine was Republican was Bush v Dukakis. I am old, but I only remember this thanks to the movie Naked Gun.
Same for NH except the 2000 result that saw GWB win the WH in a dodgy photo finish with plenty of parallax SCOTUS error. Florida is always mentioned as the state that cost Gore victory, but Bush only won NH by 7,000 votes.
they’re in like Flynn, BoeringWarmonger, with the inside track to the vast lithium riches. And they didn’t have to conquer the country either, just old fashioned Diplomacy & development assistance.
Of course there is the issue of if not J.D. Vance whom does Trump then pick? Is the new candidate going to be just as bad?
Vance was a good VP match up against Biden/Harris.
Sounds like Team Trump is managing expectations now that match up won’t happen.
Vance’s credentials are more MIC than phony Appalachian, he was a good pick if the Dems go with Mark Kelly, allegedly the Obama candidate.
If Harris is the nominee, then a black VP from the Old South would have the authenticity that Harris lacks, imo.
Harris can make a clean sweep of the Atlantic seaboard, New England, the Great Lakes, the Pacific coast and South West. A great win for the Democratic ticket is on the cards.
Trump is very clearly too old/ too obese/ too fatigued/ too wrecked/ too angry to campaign at full tilt. Beautifully, the prospect of defeat at the hands of a black woman will be driving him to fury.
What will happen to the Republicans when Trump loses?
So BT thinks the Democrats would possibly have two colour candidates?
Seriously, needs to get of the meds.
NYT/Siena College poll. A dude on Planet America said this week if trump’s popularity got above 47% and stayed there until election day he should win.
Mr. Trump hits a high in popularity. Overall, 48 percent of registered voters say they have a favorable view of him, up from 42 percent in our last poll (taken after the debate but before the convention and assassination attempt). It’s his highest favorable number in a Times/Siena poll, which previously always found his favorable ratings between 39 percent and 45 percent.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/upshot/poll-kamala-harris-trump.html
So ONE poll has Harris in front by ONE point.
Of course, we’re ignoring the fact that if Harris does indeed with the popular vote by 1 percentage point, Trump would win the electoral college in a canter.
Of course, we’re also conveniently ignoring the fact that presidential polls underestimate the more conservative candidate almost always, due to the “shy Tory effect”. Has anyone forgotten about Trump 2016, Brexit 2016 and Morrison 2019? And Biden was leading Trump by double digits in 2020 a few weeks before election, he ended up winning the popular vote by only 4.5 points and only barely avoided losing the electoral college.
Trump will win, and win big.
This blog has more credibility than the clowns on Planet America
So MM, so given you say Trump will win big and have made that call, what is your EC vote prediction and which states are going to flip?
Tim Miller has a bombshell on JD Vance – he is more involved in the Project 2025 than was thought
https://youtu.be/3h_d4IjKoKg?si=nsRoVARf3rVzGwhU
Looking at TikTok trending page – leading at #1 is this:
Trump to win every single state that Biden won off him last time, plus Nevada and Minnesota.
Coalition to win Tangney, Bullwinkel, Aston, Higgins, Gilmore, Robertson, Blair, Lingiari, Bennelong, Lyons and Dunkley off Labor in 2025. They will also win Curtin, Mackellar and Kooyong from the Teals and Ryan and Brisbane from the Greens. Labor to lose Wills and Cooper to the Greens.
Jill Stein is running again for the US Greens, sitting on 1% in the latest NYTimes poll.
Yes, that Jill Stein…
MelbourneMammoth @ #1228 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 11:16 am
Care to tell us what name will you be posting under after these two elections?
My daily reminder to our resident soothsayers like MelbourneMammoth that there is no such thing as psychic powers.
sprocket_ @ #1229 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 11:51 am
No announcement yet, perhaps Labor’s brains trust have decided a radical cleanout is a necessary tradeoff for leaving a Dutton Government with a mountain of problems?
Ahh, I see Obama is getting a little nervous about being seen as an outlier.
No time for grandstanding sir, just get onboard.
Badthinker @ #1233 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 12:38 pm
Are you dense, or do you just act that way? The announcement is scheduled for Sunday. Today is Friday. You’re welcome. 😐
Yes, we clearly have a white supremacist problem across the globe
Rex Douglas @ #1234 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 12:41 pm
Ditto, Rex Douglas. Do you not read what others post? Here, for your edification is what I posted earlier:
Former president Barack Obama has been in regular contact with Harris and plans to soon endorse her as the Democratic presidential candidate, a source familiar with his plans said on Thursday.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-leads-kamala-harris-among-registered-voters-in-latest-poll-20240726-p5jwq1.html
Maybe you should spend less time thinking up wisecracks about Labor and more time getting your facts straight?
My first thought on this is that “god it must be miserable working for Murdoch”.
TeamKatich: The same name as I have now. What need do I have to hide by changing it?
Although, if I got my prediction right (likely) I might be tempted to crown myself Nostradamus Superstar II……
Obama wanted to have his cake and eat it too. I don’t think it will do any harm to Harris in the long run. His actually endorsement won’t change any delegates but will be a big deal in terms of events. That will dominate the news cycle for a 12 or 24 hour period and although it was not by design, that will help in maintaining the “Big MO” (to use the G.H.W. Bushism).
alfred venison @ #1217 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 11:03 am
Are you sad they beat Russia and China to it? 😐
Thank you MM.
Have a screenshot in that prediction. Let’s see how you go with it.
Do keep up, C@t, its China that’s in like Flynn. They’ll build a railway there too, no doubt, since the line from China to Russia via Iran is now finished.
The shy voter effect might equally well apply to Harris supporters as to Trumpists. I dare say there are plenty of otherwise conservatively-tuned voters who are appalled by Trump but are reluctant to say so, such is the bullying by team MAGA. They could be equally shy about declaring themselves for a black woman candidate.
I can think of lifelong Liberal voters who’ve fled in disgust from the Liberals in WA without first saying so.
Trump chickens out and refuses to debate Harris
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/25/2258180/-Trump-chickens-out-and-refuses-to-debate-Harris?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“The Trump campaign posted this on their campaign website:
Given the continued political chaos surrounding Crooked Joe Biden and the Democrat Party, general election debate details cannot be finalized until Democrats formally decide on their nominee. There is a strong sense by many in the Democrat Party – namely Barack Hussein Obama – that Kamala Harris is a Marxist fraud who cannot beat President Trump, and they are still holding out for someone “better.” Therefore, it would be inappropriate to schedule things with Harris because Democrats very well could still change their minds.”
I don’t think there’s any doubt now that the Trump handlers acknowledge the massive shift in the optics and contrast with Harris now the opponent.
You’ll rarely see Trump in the same room as Harris.
alfred venison @ #1244 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 1:39 pm
Please excuse me for having a life outside of PB and not knowing which country your slavish and inscrutable reference was in relation to. Of course I should have realised that your, now obvious, toadying was in relation to China, it being one of your pets.
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Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 12:49 pm
My first thought on this is that “god it must be miserable working for Murdoch”.
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Badthinker might have worked for Daily Rupert.
Every bloody day in June, without any shame, Badthinker trumpetted that Albanese would call an election on August 3rd. But now behaves as if no such call is made. Perhaps the BTs, FUBARs and PPs of PB think they are owning lefties of PB by posting arrant nonsense.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna163279
My unnamed source versus your unnamed source. 🙂