Adrian Beaumont update at 11:40am: I’ve done an article for The Conversation on Biden’s withdrawal. It’s too early to analyse polls of Harris vs Trump as Harris hasn’t been a presidential candidate until today. Economic data is improving, and Harris is much younger than Trump. But it’s a very risky move as Harris hasn’t been battle-tested in primaries, and failed in 2020. However, Democrats needed to take the risk as Biden’s age is of great concern and he’s already behind. US Senate polls have the Democrats doing well, implying Biden was a drag.
Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential election race, “to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Discuss.
You’re going to love this Kamala Harris video featuring Beyoncé
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/25/2258113/-You-re-going-to-love-this-Kamala-Harris-video-featuring-Beyonc?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
“Kamala Harris released her first campaign video on Thursday, and it’s guaranteed to set the KHive and the BeyHive a-buzzing with joy.
On Monday, the vice president and likely Democratic presidential nominee entered her newly minted campaign headquarters to Beyoncé’s song “Freedom.” And yes, unlike so many Republicans who use popular songs against the express wishes of the artists, Harris had permission.”
Shocker: House GOP gives up on Biden impeachment dreams
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/24/2257691/-Shocker-House-GOP-gives-up-on-Biden-impeachment-dreams?pm_source=ICYMI&pm_campaign=ICYMI07252024
“If there was any question that the House GOP’s investigations into President Joe Biden and his “crime family” were purely political, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer just put that doubt to rest. Now that Biden’s not running for reelection, Comer doesn’t care what happens with the impeachment inquiry.
“I feel like we’ve done our job. … Our part of the report has been finished for a long time. They can publish it or not — I guess things change if he’s not running again,” Comer told Politico.
That capitulation comes after countless hours—and taxpayer dollars— wasted, and plenty of embarrassment for Comer and his fellow impeachment hound, Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan. House Republicans introduced 11 separate impeachment resolutions against Biden.
Extremist Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado filed one of those resolutions, and she’s ready to move on, too.
“I think Republicans’ best strategy is introducing Kamala Harris to the world,” she said, ready to bail on the pointless quest for revenge that most defined the Republican majority this session. At least their legacy of chaos lives on!
But there are still a few holdouts who aren’t quite ready to let go.
Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Nancy Mace of South Carolina have each introduced resolutions calling on Vice President Kamala Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office on the grounds that he is incapacitated. They’re not getting a lot of takers: Roy has three co-sponsors, while Mace has zero.
”
I wonder what made them change their minds?
Disapproval for Project 2025 is skyrocketing
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/24/2239378/-Disapproval-for-Project-2025-is-skyrocketing?pm_source=ICYMI&pm_campaign=ICYMI07252024
“New polling from Navigator Research shows a rapid increase in the number of Americans who say they have heard of Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s authoritarian plan for a second Donald Trump administration. And along with that awareness has also come a sharp increase in the number of Americans who disapprove of it.
Though articles about the plan have been circulating since the middle of 2023, a Navigator survey at the end of June showed just 10% of Americans holding a favorable opinion of Project 2025 and 19% holding an unfavorable opinion. The rest had either no opinion or no knowledge of the plan.
But by mid-July, those numbers had jumped to 11% favorable and 43% unfavorable. That increase in knowledge about the plan reflects broader reporting on Project 2025, as well as increased attention to the plan from Democratic politicians. It also likely reflects a spurt of media coverage that began in early July expressly because Trump claimed to be unfamiliar with the plan.
Project 2025, produced with the assistance of at least 140 former or current members of Trump’s campaign and White House staff, is meant to act as a guide to Trump’s actions in a second term.
”
”
Project 2025 is like IPA idealogical settings. Nobody in Liberal wants to talk about IPA policies before election but then go on to implement after they win an election. Similarly Republicans don’t want to talk about Project 2025 (Trump even feigns ignorance) but they will implement if they win November 2024 election
I love it when the VP pick becomes a gift for the other side. The Repubs might lap it up, but talk about making Dem’s job easy in terms of voter motivation.
JD Vance said in 2021.
“When you go to the polls in this country, as a parent, you should have more power. You should have more of an ability to speak your voice in a democratic republic than people who don’t have kids,”
“Ohio bans abortion in, let’s say, 2024. And then, every day, George Soros sends a 747 to Columbus to load up disproportionately black women to get them to go have abortions in California. And of course, the left will celebrate this as a victory for diversity.
“If that happens, do you need some federal response to prevent it from happening? I’m pretty sympathetic to that, actually.
“So hopefully we get to a point where Ohio bans abortion, and California and the Soroses of the world respect it.”
There’s something missing from the news right now—or rather, someone
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/25/2258000/-There-s-something-missing-from-the-news-right-now-or-rather-someone?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web
“If you scan the front pages of the nation’s newspapers on Thursday, you’ll find that President Joe Biden’s historic and moving speech is at the top of papers across the nation.
Biden’s call to defend American democracy, personal sacrifice, and passing the torch to a new generation is not just front-page news at The Washington Post, it can be found from coast to coast to coast to coast to coast.
And Vice President Kamala Harris is there receiving that torch. She’s there on the cover of the Los Angeles Times, and she’s front and center in The New York Times. She’s there in Georgia, and North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Stories about Harris’ campaign and the enthusiasm and energy it’s generating are everywhere.
But something else is missing. There’s something different about the headlines. Something that makes all these papers less gloomy, less angry, less … orange.
Wait, here’s that missing something. It’s hiding inside The New York Times, where Maggie Haberman writes that Donald Trump “has lost his grip on the news cycle.”
“It’s an unfamiliar experience for Mr. Trump, who has monopolized America’s televisions, newspapers and smartphones for more than 12 months through indictments, primary victories, 34 felony convictions, an assassination attempt and a Republican National Convention at which he was celebrated as a quasi-religious figure.”
Twelve months is an understatement. This may be the first time since Trump came down that golden escalator to start a campaign based on racist fear and the promise of violence that he has not dominated national news on an almost daily basis. Even when the nation was going through a pandemic that took more than 1 million lives, Trump took over what was supposed to be a regular medical briefing and made it all about him.”
Ven @ #1245 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 1:51 pm
I think the Democrat strategists would be happy the Trump campaign is using this line. It makes Obama’s endorsement more powerful. A very Sun Su strategy, “hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.”
Compare the pairpair
Is Trump running scared of Harris? And is it a gross exaggeration to suggest that Vance had carnal knowledge of a couch?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7XALutpPxw&t=304s
I love the split of Democrats between CNN Democrats and MSNBC Democrats. I think that should be relabelled Deadpan Serious Democrats and Highly Partisan Democrats.
B. S. Fairman @ #1259 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 3:22 pm
Must say I havent consumed my US news through anyone but NYT and 538 for some years, where does that put me in the spectrum? I have used MSNBC and CNN but I find their sites a little too chaotic.
rancid as usual, C@t O’WarMonger.
Yep. Excitement sells. Even the good ones fall for it. Stewart parodies them well.
I try not to miss Kaitlan Collins interviews tho. Normally pretty good, no nonsense and no avoidance Q’s.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 11:46 am
Trump to win every single state that Biden won off him last time, plus Nevada and Minnesota.
Coalition to win Tangney, Bullwinkel, Aston, Higgins, Gilmore, Robertson, Blair, Lingiari, Bennelong, Lyons and Dunkley off Labor in 2025. They will also win Curtin, Mackellar and Kooyong from the Teals and Ryan and Brisbane from the Greens. Labor to lose Wills and Cooper to the Greens.
—————————–
Higgins atm is abolished. Liberal people are nowhere near that optimistic only thinking they can win Tangney Bullwinkel Pearce Blair and Kooyong but they also think Aston Curtin Ryan and Bennelong are close but labor people think they will hold most of their seats.
Trump is changing his theme song to Yellow..
https://www.google.com/search?q=running+scared+roy+orbison&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-au&client=safari
Trump’s new campaign song.
sprocket_,
Wow! That is some unhinged stuff from the Trump campaign! 😯
Hey Melbourne mammoth what about the 2022 elections in the US where was going to claim to be a red wave and after the 2016 election wherever Trump was on the ballad for other people he lost are you crazy I want to know your methodology cos it sounds like you’re just saying crazy stuff to get a rise out of people
Trump’s new campaign photo:
Old Yeller
I love this. Trump is clearly at Mara Lago ranting and raving because Harris is getting better press than he is. She’s challenged him to a debate so he tries to weasel out of it, knowing there isn’t a chance in hell he’d beat her in a debate.
But most of all is that he’s probably hauled Don Jnr over the coals for hooking him up with JD Vance as his VP who is fading by the day.
And then there’s ads like these that mess with Trump’s head. Today’s a glorious day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=150cHo2VS6U&ab_channel=TheLincolnProject
This is what I’m talking about. He simply doesn’t fire up the Republican base.
Um, … Dan Quayle won in 1988.
Sarah Palin was a good candidate in 2008 but John McCain was the candidate from Hell for the Republican Party.
Trump has been blindsided by Harris, i’m wondering if Joe was planning to dump her and run alongside someone with a military background?
Same thing happened in 2016, Trump was reported as being unhappy with Pence as running mate.
Brave King Donald ran away.
Bravely ran away away.
Kamala raised her smiling head,
He bravely flipped his hair and fled.
His polling took a minor blow,
So he rode to Mar-a-lago.
There he resides in his manse,
Regretting picking J.D. Vance,
Bravest of the brave, King Donald.
I wonder how many times Trump can say that his opponent(s) are the “worst ever”, “the most left-wing ever”, “total liars”, “hate America” etc etc before it loses its meaning.
I sense that already it might not wash any more with a lot of political independents, but I’m not in the good old USA myself so I can’t really tell.
But it’s a bit like business – you tell your staff that every task is urgent, that simply turns into ‘nothing is urgent’.
‘Sarah Palin was a good candidate’
😆
The Mooch thinks Kamala Harris should pick Mark Kelly as her VP Running Mate. He thinks that Kelly would, obviously help with her gun message, and help shore up Arizona, Nevada, and, more importantly, the veteran and Military vote.
@Ven
“”I thought Fubar or Badthinker (I forget which, they’re both the same anyways), said Kamala Harris had run out of puff already?
She’s only just started to gain momentum!
”
BTSays also says that. ”
No he doesn’t say anything of the sort. You and other posters need to read my (I believe nuanced) posts properly instead of lazily putting fellow posters into pigeon holes and reading everything through YOUR filter that you have incorrectly created.
Believe it or not, there are a small handful of us on here not trying to wave a flag one way or another but seeking to comment objectively. It’s possible to have an opinion and still do this, though sadly this is in very short supply on this site – from both left and right wingers.
Yes, we’re also all fallible human beings, I’m sure not every post of mine lives up to the standard I set myself.
But what gives people the right to think it’s their job to pounce on someone that (as they believe, not always even correctly) has a different view to them and pour verbal garbage over them so that only one narrative is dominant on the thread (the one that they want to see universally spouted)?
What’s the point in PB becoming an echo chamber instead of an interesting discussion of polling etc?
I think Harris needs to pick a governor not another senator (i.e. she is an ex-Senator) to add that balance and gravitas – plus they’re more influential in their own state than a senator.
Josh Shapiro seems sound but he’s not been in the job that long. Choosing Roy Cooper would add long experience and, IMO, almost certainly win North Carolina for Harris (I believe this was more competitive for Dems even when Biden was running, than other states they won last time that they are set to lose).
Plus Roy Cooper is a two-term winner in what has been a GOP-leaning state – generally governors in this position have pretty robust popularity in their state including from a minority of ‘the other side’. He’s also seen as fairly moderate I believe, which should help counter the narrative of Harris being very left-wing (whether she actually is or not isn’t the point).
C@tmomma @ #1274 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 6:44 pm
At first glance I was going to point out this might lead to a difficult Senate special election in Arizona, but then I realised that if Mark Kelly is the VP pick, the current Governor of Arizona is also a Democrat and can appoint his replacement. He’s also up for re-election in 2026, so yeah, could be a good choice.
I’m still thinking Andy Beshear would be the best pick though. He’d likely drag JD Vance through a gauntlet of humiliation and help shore up the Democratic vote in rural districts in key swing states.
Dems should forget about Nevada – sure, Harris can pay it a visit and help shore up the votes further down the ticket, but it’s going to go to GOP.
Arizona (especially, NB it’s a border state) looks to me like a tough ask for Dems to hold. Georgia and the rust belt states that have been so marginal the last 2 elections are also very borderline and any or all of them could be lost. New Hampshire is probably more safe now Harris is running, perhaps Minnesota and Maine also, which were all suddenly starting to look vulnerable – but there’s a lot of defence for Dems to do.
So as well as stoking up the vote in these states, they could well do with winning some states FROM the GOP and I think N Carolina is their best shout. Hopefully Harris has more sense than Biden than to waste time in Iowa (esp) and Florida, and I think even Biden knew that Ohio was a lost cause for Dems atm. It’s not the 2000s any more.
I think Harris can hold Wisconsin even though it’s only voted Dem once since Reagan, and she’s definitely competitive in Michigan and Pennslyvania and she simply must camp out in these states to make sure she wins them. If she holds onto these 3 Rust Belt states and wins N Carolina, she could just offset losses in Nevada, Georgia and Arizona to squeak a narrow win (if my top of head Maths is right).
I’m not saying she can’t win these latter 3 full stop, but she’s behind atm IMO. You have to read a bit what’s going on in these states as well as what the polls say.
”
BTSayssays:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 6:51 pm
I think Harris needs to pick a governor not another senator (i.e. she is an ex-Senator) to add that balance and gravitas – plus they’re more influential in their own state than a senator.
Josh Shapiro seems sound but he’s not been in the job that long. Choosing Roy Cooper would add long experience and, IMO, almost certainly win North Carolina for Harris (I believe this was more competitive for Dems even when Biden was running, than other states they won last time that they are set to lose).
Plus Roy Cooper is a two-term winner in what has been a GOP-leaning state – generally governors in this position have pretty robust popularity in their state including from a minority of ‘the other side’. He’s also seen as fairly moderate I believe, which should help counter the narrative of Harris being very left-wing (whether she actually is or not isn’t the point).
”
I agree with you
Vance definitely doesn’t seem like a great pick, IMO it’s not clear even how sincere he comes across to the core base although he definitely aims to speak their language and makes much of his ‘ideal’ back story from poverty that everyone loves.
But it would be interesting to see any actual polling on Vance, esp on GOP voters specifically. Perhaps they find him more sincere than I do. I don’t think he’s designed to gain independents, that’s Trump’s job this time round it seems (and polling shows them more susceptible to voting for him in higher numbers than last time, though many are still up for grabs).
When all’s said and done, the VP pick is rarely as key as it’s hyped up to be at the start, especially true for an incumbent or ex-President like Trump – although the latter does have the age factor to contend with of course.
BTSays @ #1278 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 7:02 pm
Your maths is right, if Kamala wins North Carolina and holds the Rust Belt states while losing Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, then she wins the electoral college with plenty to spare, such as small unexpected losses of Nebraska-2 and New Hampshire.
APOLOGIES IF THIS POST WAS ACTUALLY AIMED AT BADTHINKER, WHICH I NOW BELIEVE IT WAS. KIRKY, PLEASE BE MORE CAREFUL HOW YOU ADDRESS PEOPLE, IE ABBREVIATING TO BT ETC.
@Kirky
“You’ve been wrong on most of your postings.
When was that federal election again? August wasn’t it.”
I’m a glutton for punishment for bothering to reply, but it’s quite trying when people completely make stuff up that you’ve not even thought, much less posted.
A lot of weird bullying on this site.
Kirsdarke
Thanks.
BTSays @ #1283 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 7:13 pm
I think people are confusing you with BadThinker, whose nom gets shortened to BT.
And that is Obama all in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km1Rkm0pHO4
Finally.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/26/barack-michelle-obama-kamala-harris-endorse/
I’m still thinking Andy Beshear would be the best pick though. He’d likely drag JD Vance through a gauntlet of humiliation and help shore up the Democratic vote in rural districts in key swing states.
Commentators in America say he looks like he’s trying to hard to get noticed.
Snap Confessions 🙂
Griff I’m shocked. I thought Obama was working against both Biden and Harris to instal his own selection? I read it here so it must be truth.
Not a fan of Beshear. I’ve seen videos of him in interviews and I think he’d make Vance look competent.
Pass.
In our household it is Cooper vs Kelly. But we may settle on Walz.
Looking at that footage I believe Kamala should be taking a hairdresser with her entourage now. Presentation at all times is key. Even in the middle of summer when it’s hot as hell.
Griff:
It was getting to the point where people were starting to seriously ask about Obama’s endorsement as America’s first Black president. It looked bad that he was staying silent and using weasel words to avoid endorsing her.
I’m pleased he’s read the room and has come out in support along with 90+% of his party colleagues.
Confessions @ #1291 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 7:31 pm
His name hasn’t been bubbling up of late. It’s coming down to Cooper or Kelly I think.
Governor Walz may just make the ‘radical’ thing stick.
C@t and Confessions,
Alright, fair enough. I admit that I haven’t seen Beshear perform as a politician, I was just going by the numbers.
I just hope whoever does become Kamala’s running mate can stick the landing just as well as the Biden-Harris baton change this week. It’s been incredible to see them do this over the past 5 days with such party discipline.
C@t:
If it is a choice between Cooper and Kelly then I’d prefer Kelly. But my preference is Shapiro.
The thing about Kelly that is a positive is that he isn’t trying to be picked. There aren’t suddenly all these old Youtubes circulating of him with killer lines like there are with Buttigieg, Shapiro, Waltz, Beshear and others.
Confessions says:
Friday, July 26, 2024 at 7:34 pm
Griff:
It was getting to the point where people were starting to seriously ask about Obama’s endorsement as America’s first Black president. It looked bad that he was staying silent and using weasel words to avoid endorsing her.
I’m pleased he’s read the room and has come out in support along with 90+% of his party colleagues.
________
It’s an interesting one. Whether by purpose or not, it has made the conversation about Harris, not Trump. More specifically, it has placed attention on will he or won’t he. An answer that they had control over and expressed in the positive. Straight after Trump used it as an excuse to not debate Harris. I am not sure how long the Democrats can keep it up, but the timing has been in Harris’ favour since Sunday. Now it is which VP candidate. Perhaps they can maintain momentum to the convention. We shall see.
So Obama has finally endorsed Kamala?
You see, they do read Poll Bludger.
It was only after I told him too…
Oh and Confessions 🙂