Adrian Beaumont update at 11:40am: I’ve done an article for The Conversation on Biden’s withdrawal. It’s too early to analyse polls of Harris vs Trump as Harris hasn’t been a presidential candidate until today. Economic data is improving, and Harris is much younger than Trump. But it’s a very risky move as Harris hasn’t been battle-tested in primaries, and failed in 2020. However, Democrats needed to take the risk as Biden’s age is of great concern and he’s already behind. US Senate polls have the Democrats doing well, implying Biden was a drag.
Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential election race, “to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Discuss.
So. Hmmmm, an old Pew article suggest the crossover in RV to LV is September. Befor that, RV more reliable. After, LV.
That assumes a good set of Qs to determine a likely voter. Good pollsters will have numerous Qs rather than ‘r u likely to vote’.
But that article predates MAGA.
https://www.pewresearch.org/2012/08/29/ask-the-expert-determining-who-is-a-likely-voter/
And this goes into it wrt Biden’s deeper issues in his campaign beyond just his speech, energy and elderly gait.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4618327-its-not-just-biden-versus-trump-but-registered-versus-likely-voters/amp/
Rupert’s FoxNews has Harris surging in the blue wall..
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Wisconsin_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Michigan_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Pennsylvania_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Minnesota_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf
Latest Michigan polling:
Previous poll had Trump up by 8. Same poll now has Harris up by 1. No MoE swing there.
Trump after meeting Netanyahu at Mar-a-lago said about Harris that she was disrepectful to him.
”
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, July 27, 2024 at 9:26 am
Surprised JD Bowman didn’t back down on the cat ladies.
Early days, but this unheralded hick could be another Spiro T Agnew.
”
But you love Spiro Agnew as per some of your posts about him. 🙂
In the first 24 hours of Harris replacing Biden I reported here that there was a big move on the betting markets for Harris to win the presidency.
Their converted odds to their respective chances according to the betting then read:
Trump 65%
Harris 35%
I can now report that the swing for Harris has been further maintained. The chances as they currently stand:
Trump 61%
Harris 39%
Donald will be starting to get the hippy hippy shakes if Kamala can get to 42%.
If Kamala can get to 44% we are in for a fair dinkum serious contest and if Kamala can get to 47% hell, I think she can just about win it…
”
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, July 27, 2024 at 9:28 am
The vice-president’s ascent marks a historic moment. But the US must remain vigilant to the threat of the ‘model minority’ myth
………
……..
The illumination of two women with Indian heritage – who represent opposing visions for America’s future – demands reckoning with an often overlooked and complex history about the ascendance of a community that makes up just over 1% of the US population.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/26/kamala-harris-indian-american-politicians-model-minority-myth
”
“the ascendance of a community that makes up just over 1% of the US population”
Indian Americans are the highest-earning ethnic group in the United States.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Americans#:~:text=Indian%20Americans%20are%20the%20highest,group%20in%20the%20United%20States.
https://www.wionews.com/world/indians-among-top-earners-in-us-surpass-other-asian-groups-report-553585
Why is ascendence of people of Indian-origin is a concern to American an British media?
@Ven – Why is ascendence of people of Indian-origin is a concern to American an British media?
———
Because at heart we maintain our imperial colonising spirit. We know best because we are right and white and we speak English.
We are, and remain fundamentally exceptionalist which at its cold heart is latent racism.
I note Trump overlooked the obvious VP (other than one of his kids) who is both female and of Indian extraction. As Stephen K Bannen says “There are no conspiracies, but there are no coincidences” or some such garbage.
Let’s hope Kamala’s surge continues – for all our sakes.
(i don’t speak for the trolls)
Why is ascendence of people of Indian-origin is a concern to American an British media?
————————
Pure racism.
But for some it is a Fear of change. Fear of losing power to an ‘other’ who may treat you like you treated them. You could call that racism, and you wouldn’t be wrong, yet it isn’t pure racism imo.
I’d point out that people of Indian origin can also be racist or discriminatory or show favouritism based on origin/other.
Pluralism doesn’t come easy for many people. I’d rather call people who, face to face are completely egalitarian and colour blind but choose to vote for racist policies as ‘anti pluralist’ rather than racist and argue with them on that basis – that pluralism is better economically (meritocracy but also that difference and diversity is far better at creating ideas and competition than homogeneity) and morally. Societies (both local, national and global) based on racial groupings in opposition to each other or even in stand off to each other isn’t sustainable – it blows up. History is littered with the massacres of such settings.
Celebrate the commonality, take advantage of the diversity.
Good old Rasmussen still fishing in Alabama…
Otherwise, 2 Tier 1 polls have Harris in front.
This is good stuff. Two highly rated pollsters, Beacon (Fox – already mentioned) and SurveyUSA have polled in Minnesota this week. Beacon has Harris up by 6 and SurveyUSA by 10.
Biden won this in 2020 by 7.
Redfield (not a great pollster) has also dropped a lot of swing state polls. They have Harris only up by 3 in Minnesota (compared the the average of the other two of 8). We already knew they had a GOP lean. If we take the big step of assuming a uniform lean similar to Minnesota for Redfield, then Harris is in front in Wisc, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and evens in Georgia and PA.
I’m getting carried away – Redfield samples are small and the bias won’t be uniform. But it is encouraging.
At his latest speech, Donald Trump calls Kamala Harris ‘a bum’.
That’s right, ‘a bum’.
Let’s see if that’s a vote winner..
https://youtu.be/T6_w9uRvyJY?si=iX-HPB1uaIB1upeC
Let’s see if that’s a vote winner..
How many Bar Stool Sports bros are there in America? Is it enough to win the race?
At his latest speech, Donald Trump calls Kamala Harris ‘a bum’.
Looks like his vocabulary is diminishing. 😐
Trump called Harris a bum because he knew he would get away with it and it would win him net votes. Welcome to Middle America.
Woe to the sods of the Left who delude themselves by believing otherwise.
sprocket_ @ #1413 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 1:31 pm
The problem is that journalists don’t really cover his rallies. If they did, more of his crazy shit like asking when the Jan 6 insurrectionists were going to be let out of jail now that Trump has been granted immunity by SCOTUS, telling people they have to vote this time and then won’t ever need to vote again, and the misogynistic name calling of women might start to be called out.
FOX.
That, and a prior commitment to do the debate on ABC.
A Bum in Americanese is a no hoper, someone with no talent or abilities who’s pretending to be someone they’re not.
That sums up Kamala Harris, imo.
I think Trump is getting in early, Harris will get into the gutter eventually, but going early will make her appear thin skinned when she reacts.
ABC Moderators had control of the speakers mikes at the Trump/Biden debate, it was a disaster for Biden, Trump isn’t doing that again.
Harris is a poor debater, Trump is okay, so there’ll be no debates.
BT,
Kamala won’t go into the gutter and doesn’t need to stoop to his vulgarity.
Whilst his brain dead MAGA lap this stuff up and lets remember a majority are white and uneducated, others won’t.
JD Vance attacking Jennifer Anniston isn’t a great idea I would have thought.
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1816989550285296022
JD says he has nothing against cats, in reference to his prior comments about cat ladies.
He is apparently also quite fond of dolphins
Calling Kamala Harris bum is the type of insult of five-year-old will make Melbourne mammoth and bad thinker
Like how trump’s a bum how he’s pretended to be something he’s not because let’s be honest if his dad wasn’t rich no one would care
Quentin Rountree @ #1424 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 2:40 pm
And that’s why they’re titillated by it. Like 5 year olds in the playground.
This guy is worth listening to:
https://youtu.be/hEsXPPUJlW8?si=ZJNEpxYP3cuPc55v
That disgusting campaign sticker in the still is from a Repug.
MelbourneMammoth:
Saturday, July 27, 2024 at 1:45 pm
[‘Trump called Harris a bum because he knew he would get away with it and it would win him net votes. Welcome to Middle America.
Woe to the sods of the Left who delude themselves by believing otherwise.’]
Decorum is not your strong suit. A political maxim holds that it’s usually counterproductive to make needless enemies. That’s not to suggest that one should be neutral:
[“A prince is also esteemed when he shows himself a true friend or a true enemy, that is, when, without reservation, he takes his stand with one side or the other. This is always wiser than trying to be neutral, for if two powerful neighbors of yours fall out they are either of such sort that the victor may give you reason to fear him or they are not. In either case it will be better for you to take sides and wage an honest war.” – Ch.20 of Machiavelli’s “The Prince.”]
– but getting on top of an opponent can be achieved without vitriol and with a modicum of wit. Lessons that your man Trump is hard-pressed to understand.
Bonza @ #1421 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 2:31 pm
And couches.
Leading the Washington Post…
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Donald Trump honed his attacks on Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, in a speech at the Turning Point USA Believers’ Summit in West Palm Beach Friday night, calling her “the most incompetent, unpopular and far-left vice president in American history,” blaming her for high numbers of migrant apprehensions at the southern border and calling her a “bum.”
“She was a bum three weeks ago,” Trump said. “She was a bum, a failed vice president.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/26/trump-turning-point-speech-vance/
Harris has already proclaimed
‘I know Donald Trump’s type”
Trump has cut to the chase.
If Harris wanted a respectful campaign she should’ve stayed outta the gutter.
Lol sure it was Kamala who disrupted the civil tone of the campaigning
Frankly I never liked the ‘when they go low we go high’ philosophy
Yes cuz when I think of respectful I think of Donald Trump
Trump: “You have to get out and vote. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four years, it will be fixed, it will be fine…In four years, you won’t have to vote again.”
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1817007890496102490
Trying to go high when your opponent goes low is one of the most low-level mistakes the Left makes, and yet they never learn. Donald Trump knows that going low with the most simplistic and crude insults is more than enough to win. So does Dutton.
Can MelbourneMammoth and Badthinker get on the same page. Is Harris going high or low?
In anycase, that’s some quality level gaslighting there, Badthinker. Harris dragged Trump into the gutter, yeah right.
Bad thinker,
I couldn’t give a rat’s what Drumpf call Harris. I hope he goes full on feral. I hope she goads him into the lowest of his already low behaviour and speech.
It will only hurt him and gain votes for her.
I am going to enjoy this.
Mm and BT are giving us a free, personal show of the despair in the Drumpf camp.
She is going to do him slowly, to quote a famous Labor PM. lol
Melbourne mammoth sounds like you’re coping real bad
Despair in the Trump camp? You’ve got to be kidding. Harris is ultimately easier to beat than Biden. Everyone knows that she will get a temporary honeymoon bounce, up to the DNC. After that when her incompetence is unmasked in the real campaign, she’ll collapse in the heap of non-viability she always was.
I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic. Fair enough, if so. Really fails the self-consistency check otherwise.
ABC moderators controlled the mics (rightly so, given both 2016 and 2020 debates) and the end result was a disaster for Biden and a huge win for Trump, but Trump won’t go back for more of the same? Okay then.
And Harris sucks at debating while Trump is skilled, so therefore no debates? Makes perfect sense. 🙄
Bonza @ #1433 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 1:16 pm
I’m sure the new York Times and Washington Post will be all over this……………..well maybe not.
We’ll have to rely on BT and MM to explain to us how good this statement is actually good for democracy.
Melbourne Mammoth okay now it sounds like you’re definitely coping Also it is only been a week so how could it be a honeymoon
Way too much good in that reply, Unfortunately I don’t know how to edit a post.
Melbourne mammoth is definitely does sound like your coping also it hasn’t really been a honeymoon yet is it
A Democrat needs to win the popular vote by at least four points just to scrape through with the most slender of victories in the Electoral College. In 2020 if 44,000 votes in total had gone the other way in three swing states – Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin – the Electoral College would have been tied. And that was when the Democratic candidate won the popular vote by 4.4 points (seven million votes). The polls that have been released this week are a sobering reminder that Kamala Harris is not particularly popular. There are some Democratic Governors who would have been much stronger candidates for the presidency. It was deeply misguided of Democratic Party elites to choose Kamala Harris on the flimsy grounds that she is the Vice-President and therefore it’s her turn – she’s entitled to it. Whether she has the political talent to be the strongest possible candidate to defeat Donald Trump counted for little in the reasoning of those powerbrokers.
Trump at his latest speech to the christian nationalist faithful.
Harris has starting calling abortion bans the Trump abortion bans. Excellent politics.
There are some Democratic Governors who would have been much stronger candidates for the presidency. It was deeply misguided of Democratic Party elites to choose Kamala Harris on the flimsy grounds that she is the Vice-President and therefore it’s her turn – she’s entitled to it. Whether she has the political talent to be the strongest possible candidate to defeat Donald Trump counted for little in the reasoning of those powerbrokers.
@Nicholas
It was reported today that it’s all Joe Biden’s doing. He didn’t want to drop out and to get his revenge on Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer who were pressuring him to exit. He pulled out and quickly backed Kamala Harris to shut down a potential mini primary which Pelosi and Schumer wanted. Obama didn’t think Harris would get through a mini primary. The report suggested Obama wanted Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly as the nominee. Which undermines the credibility of the report though, because Kelly has never been suggested as a strong contender. In comparison to some of the other names mentioned (Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker etc).
“Bum” is also a fairly dated term – even in America.
Trump is struggling to land a strong blow against her because they don’t have anything to throw at her – unless he wants to cross the line into overt racism and that will bring its own challenges then.
Politics the expert of false news. All these unnamed close contacts making , at times conflicting, claims that never have a second corroboration.
Now Wallace has left, who the F at FoxNews could possibly “moderate” a “debate”?
It would just be a Trump flufferathon.