Adrian Beaumont update at 11:40am: I’ve done an article for The Conversation on Biden’s withdrawal. It’s too early to analyse polls of Harris vs Trump as Harris hasn’t been a presidential candidate until today. Economic data is improving, and Harris is much younger than Trump. But it’s a very risky move as Harris hasn’t been battle-tested in primaries, and failed in 2020. However, Democrats needed to take the risk as Biden’s age is of great concern and he’s already behind. US Senate polls have the Democrats doing well, implying Biden was a drag.
Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential election race, “to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Discuss.
Team Katich @ #1450 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 4:52 pm
Megyn Kelly IIRC hosted one in 2016. But that was when she was anti Trump and was trying to be a serious journalist. Now she’s just a MAGA shill.
MelbourneMammoth @ #1434 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 3:28 pm
It was deeply misguided of Democratic Party elites to choose Kamala Harris on the flimsy grounds that she is the Vice-President and therefore it’s her turn – she’s entitled to it.
So pontificates the entitled guy from the elite Brisbane suburb of Kenmore. This sounds like projection of a guilt complex about your own financial elite status, Nicholas.
YaramahZ @ #1435 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 3:42 pm
He’s an LNP shill. They have a lot of practice at doing Orwellian doublespeak.
C@t:
Were you at state conference today?
I just love how Harris has the cultural tide on her side. I’d never heard of Charli xcx until she endorsed Harris and went viral. And I love that she’s allowed the Harris campaign to use her brand with their campaign – see the KamalaHQ socials.
As Rick Wilson comments, you’d prefer to have the Beyonces, the Charli xcx’s etc than Hulk Hogan, washed up has-been singers like Kid Rock (who did THE worst performance at the RNC ever), and other unsavouries who are in the Trump swamp.
https://time.com/7003038/kamala-harris-charli-xcx-brat-summer/
Confessions @ #1454 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 5:11 pm
No, I’m working to make up for the money I spent on moving, so I’m minding doggies. 🙂
Did you go?
Who didn’t know about charlie xcx? (so says mother of Millennials 🙂 )
Steve Schmidt, who gave the world Sarah Palin says he never thought he’d live to see the day there would be a worse VP pick than her. Until now with Vance. It does beg the question, however: who are the rising stars in the Republican party? Not the Trump shills like Vance. But those who are genuine rising stars?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLQe3JjLZ9g&ab_channel=TheWarningwithSteveSchmidt
C@t:
No, I was too busy and didn’t get my shit together to register. With hindsight I’m glad I didn’t because the thought of sitting in a crowded indoor venue with so many viruses circulating isn’t something I’d have relished.
I’ve dipped in and out of the live stream through the day. But it isn’t quite the same watching from home.
Confessions @ #1459 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 5:21 pm
Greg Gianforte of Montana quickly comes to mind, given that he got away with assaulting a journalist from The Guardian and has only risen higher ever since, from House Rep to Governor.
Kirsdarke:
Well he doesn’t sound like much of a rising star with that kind of violence in his history. Is that the best the Republicans can offer?
Meanwhile Trump is due to be sentenced on his hush money trial on 18 September, subject to a judicial ruling on whether the SCOTUS immunity ruling would impact evidence presented to the district court.
Jail could be possible, although unlikely. Imagine though if he was thrown in jail.
@Confessions at 6:03pm
Republicans love that sort of story. Just look at how they’ve canonized Kyle R. as virtually a patron saint of MAGAism. Gianforte hurt someone they perceive as their enemy and got away with it, and the voters of Montana have eagerly voted for him to higher offices.
Trump should already be in jail. January 6th was treasonous. It is an indictment on the US system that he is not.
Trump should already be in jail. January 6th was treasonous. It is an indictment on the US system that he is not.
MABWM:
I agree. And he was out there last night at another speech wondering when the Jan 6 insurrectionists would be released! “Shouldn’t they be coming home soon?” or wtte.
MABWM @ #1466 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 6:10 pm
A lot of the blame for that rests on the shoulders of Merrick Garland. He has been exceptionally useless as U.S. Attorney General. Hopefully in January President Harris gives him his marching orders and replaces him with someone who actually cares about justice over procedure and comity.
C@tmamma at 1655: that deserves a ban! William, this kind of offensive post surely calls for her continued participation to be deemed unconscionable.
“Failure to bend the knee along with the Clinton’s and the Biden’s was a misstep from the Obama’s, but better late than never.”
Nah, the later the better for maximise impact and sustained (positive) news coverage. It would have got seriously diluted if Obamas had done it on the first day like you suggest they should. And they were smart enough to realise it (although it’s not rocket science tbh, they’re aware of their ongoing influence on the Dem party).
It’s been reported that Obama was waiting for Biden to make his announcement. I was disappointed that Obama took as long as he did to get behind Harris, but this waiting for Biden to gracefully exit the race makes total sense in hindsight.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/22/joe-biden-withdraws/comment-page-28/#comments:~:text=observations%20to%20date.-,Confessions,Saturday%2C%20July%2027%2C%202024%20at%209%3A36%20am,-Replacing%20Biden%20is
Fresh polls are always interesting, but they’re more informative if they show the change from the previous poll of the same thing by the same pollster, otherwise they don’t mean much in terms of assessing the current direction of travel.
And drawing conclusions from them like other bludgers are quick to do is, in fact, meaningless.
Not sure if this was available for this Pennsylvania poll or not.
One reassuring thing I’ve seen in the last week is that it’s obvious that the Harris campaign do not want to be Clinton 2016 2.0, and I don’t just mean in the sense of not wanting the same result but being aware of the mistakes of the previous campaign. I also am glad to see that the Harris campaign understands she’s not running for President of Twitter or Tumblr but of the United States, which includes many voters who aren’t terminally online. Online memes and buzz are fine, but it’s IRL on the ground, with real people that matters. Similarly, the celebrity endorsements are nice but it’s the support of the every day voter who faces real economic challenges that matters.
I think there are some attacks that are putting out there by the Right that right now seem a bit desperate but can be refined – especially if they support a broader narrative. While the DEI stuff and the “She slept her way up” are pathetic, if Harris/Democrats play it wrong, they can suddenly feed into a more palatable narrative: that she’s inexperienced, unsuitable, her qualifications unearned, and, most importantly, she’s a risk – so why not just go with the guy you already kinda know? What’s the harm? He’s funny and says random things but doesn’t mean them etc.
I think they’re already sniffing around with that one trustbreaker with the Border Czar stuff. They’re also going to dig in to her record as DA and AG, to find that one Willie Horton-like guy who she went easy on or failed to convict, and went on to commit another, more violent crime – the blacker the criminal, the better. Or, alternatively, they can find someone who worked alongside her at some point who has an axe to grind or is just a partisan Republican who can give testimony that she was an unqualified career climber who was lazy, incompetent etc. Her status as a former prosecutor (despite the insistence from some of the terminally online left) is currently a strength of hers and they want to neutralise that.) It’s also not too late for House Republicans to find some pretence to start an investigation into something from Harris’s record – even if a nothing burger – just to have the optics of an investigation and hope that voters believe that where there is smoke, there is fire.
Don’t panic, of course, this is standard procedure and I am not 100% confident that the current Republican Party have the political nous to pull the attack off but they might hit gold and, let’s be honest, there are probably a few swing voters who are subconsciously looking for a reason to distrust the brown woman. Democrats should be prepared for that.
The other thing I have to say is that everyone from Harris’s campaign from Harris herself, all the way down to volunteers on the ground need to avoid two things:
1) Leaning too heavily into the “First woman of colour President” milestone euphoria or stuff like that “It’s HER turn” etc., because it feeds the “DEI” slur. Also, stuff like that can make it seem like she’s just running for herself (or at most, a particular demographic), not for the country as a whole. Yes, it an unavoidable talking point at times, and there will be supporters who will be pushing that but don’t lean to heavily into it. Stay focused on the mission of presidency you want to have. You can celebrate the milestone if and after you win.
2) Don’t be scolds when someone says something offensive, sexist or racist. Just dismiss them as angry weirdos. If you start moralising, you start sounding like you’re lecturing people and “wokescolding.” That can be off-putting to many voters who aren’t necessarily social progressives (they’re sympathetic to it but don’t like when it’s jammed down their throats.)
Pack your bags C@t you are about to be banned apparently.
P.S. shouldn’t the elephant be a horse?
C@tmomma
Maybe I shouldn’t interfere with comments not directed at me, but it’s kinda upsetting to see your endless horrible insults and goads to other pollsters on this site. It’s making this site a really unpleasant place / read.
Most of the time they’re not even directly provoked, not that that would be justification IMHO.
And unfortunately, it seems to lead to a handful of others joining in a similar vein, albeit not to quite the same degree.
Could you call truce on it now to make this site more pleasant, please?
@Wat Tyler at 6:43pm
Good post there. The Biden-Harris baton change has so far gone incredibly well, but there’s still several months until the election itself. The Democrats can’t afford to be smug and complacent, they need to keep this discipline up until November.
It’s a given that the Republicans will fight dirty, and the Democrats need to be prepared for this. And they’re already behind in the polls, so they’ll need to make moves to get ahead. Still, they have shots in the locker such as the all-important running mate pick.
They’ve already started doing this which is good. Vance is described as weird and creepy on women’s issues. And they circle back to the central message: Trump’s abortion bans, Project 2025 want to stop women accessing critical health care etc etc.
If Vance really becomes a drag, then Trump should dump him after the dem convention. It’s such a topsy turvey campaign for both sides why not, take the momentum back.
Are you able to point to a particular comment from C@t? I’m genuinely curious because I haven’t commented on the open thread really at all, and my experience of this post is overall positive.
What in particular has C@t posted here that has irked you?
It’s an interesting question re who was the best candidate for Dems and how Harris suddenly became unstoppable when actually, there was no inevitability at all prior to Biden’s announcement.
All things being equal, I definitely agree that Harris was not the strongest candidate out there at all.
That said, two things have happened in her favour since Biden’s announcement:
1. The base – and in particular the ‘coloured’ elements of the Obama coalition – are fired up and coming out of the woodwork in hoards.
2. Unity – a lot of the momentum and energy around Harris’s bid is due to the very visible unity of the Democratic party. This creates a very real energy and focus on the positives of the candidate that is worth a few % by itself.
The Dems have gone from despair to hope to excitement very quickly. It won’t all last, and I still think Harris and campaign were too slow to define Harris more coming out of the blocks (which they’ll suffer for later once the initial excitement has subsided), ahead of her opponents, but regarding the other aspects it’s been a very good start.
MI:
Nooooo! Vance is the Biden equivalent for Republicans.
I want him to stay anchored to Trump, with all his creepy, misogynistic remarks and his deep ties to Project 2025. He’s a Palinesque gift that keeps giving.
Confessions @ #1478 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 6:28 pm
Yes, so far they’ve been good and disciplined with the message.
Has the White House ever been occupied by any other bogan oaf of the calibre of Donald Trump?
Obama reads the times very well, his political instincts have always been strong. Too many in politics are so in the bubble they miss seemingly small but in fact really important things.
And he was so right to say that Harris is the underdog but “we have a good chance” – it was the right thing to say even if you don’t think she is the underdog, though in this case I would think his was a sober (if completely overshadowed) reminder that that is, in fact, still the case.
How far ahead does Harris need to get in battleground states in the ‘honeymoon’ period in order for her to still win the EC in November? (very tricky one to answer, but I would suspect about 5% – of course she doesn’t have to win every battleground to win the EC)
I still think her best route in the end is via Michigan, Penn., Wis. and North Carolina, to offset probable and possible losses further south and west.
‘Coloured elements’ seems a very dismissive way to refer to the sought after voting bloc Latinos and African Americans present in the US. It’s why Team Trump is openly trying to court these groups of voters.
Just a suggestion, but perhaps choose your words a little more carefully when referring to non-white voters.
JD Vance
I really am not impressed by what I’ve seen so far.
But there’s far too much wishful thinking on this site regarding his drag on Trump. Most of the stuff circulating is no doubt amongst confirmed opposers and, when all’s said and done, he’s the VP and Trump is the (in this case very ‘Omnipresent’ for want of a better word) Presidential candidate.
But for Vance not to be some kind of drag, Trump needs to define him himself with a full-throated character composition. If he avoids doing this simply because he wants to be ‘the one and only’ then he’s making a mistake, he needs to shore up the choice – which he can relatively easily do because such is his powerful influence amongst the party and its supporters that they will accept his every word on it and even Independents will take some notice of his restated reasons for picking Vance.
Confessions – thanks for the thought. What alternative succinct description do you think I should have used?
The Toorak Toff
There was a guy in the 1800s who was apparently quite similar in temperament to Trump, I forget which President it was – Andrew Johnson??
Confessions 7.01pm
Read page 29 on this thread for a start – it’s littered with it the further down you go, with a little help from others.
BTSays @ #1488 Saturday, July 27th, 2024 – 7:14 pm
Latino and African American Democrat voters.
Diverse American Democrat voters.
@BTSays at 7:08pm
After thinking on it, I think Kamala has a better chance of retaining Georgia than flipping North Carolina.
For one thing, Georgia is a state that’s dominated by a large city (Atlanta) surrounded by deep red rural territory, much like Illinois (Chicago). North Carolina’s biggest cities meanwhile are Charlotte and Raleigh, both of which have an urban population of barely over 1 million, while Atlanta’s urban population is 5 million.
So for the Democrats, turnout is key in Georgia. And it takes a lot of motivation to campaign in that state, especially in summer. But the pass from Biden to Harris makes it much more likely that a Democratic volunteer will wake up at dawn, drive out into Suburban Atlanta through the morning peak for an hour and canvass for Kamala enough to convince enough voters to get enthusiastic enough to both make sure their voter registration hasn’t been purged like the Republicans constantly try to do and take the day off so they can stand in line all day to cast their ballot, since Georgia’s pretty much cut off postal, prepoll, absent and provisional voting.
North Carolina meanwhile seems to be going down the path of Florida in becoming more red.
Confessions
Perhaps just “some of the elements of” would have been shorter and covered the point. Though I believe Americans often refer to persons of colour in a perfectly respectful sense that might be seen a bit differently in other Western countries.
Andrew Johnson was a drunk and a loose cannon. He took over from Lincoln when he got shot. Because he was originally a democrat who sided with the Union, he was not liked by either side.
However, Andrew Jackson was a fire brand and an anti-establishment character who was a bit like Trump. He was the 7th President.
Confessions
I don’t see why ‘coloured’ would be offensive. I have seen it many times in books in reference to non white people, but you might be right. People do seem to be determined to find every possible way to be offended these days.
Kirsdarke
N Carolina has in fact been moderately red for quite a while, whilst Florida was the ultimate bellwether. Obama winning N Carolina was an aberration.
Remember N Carolina has >20% black population, which may also gain another 1 or 2 % for Harris than Biden got last time – and he was very close to winning it.
It’s the one state within reach that might, just, be having a small trend the opposite way to Florida and Iowa.
I believe it’s more gettable than Georgia – if they treat it as such with their targetting / ads / rallies etc. – but of course you are right that Georgia is eminently gettable still as well with a good campaign.
B.S.Fairman
Thank you. I think Andrew Jackson was the name I was trying to recall!
It’s the ‘elements’ that is the issue. Would we ever refer to ‘white elements’ of a voting demographic? No. Because the premise is that ‘white’ is always the dominant pretext and non-white is the lesser being.
But using ‘coloured elements’ to refer to non-white voting blocs within the Dems, you are reducing those culturally diverse Democrat members and voters to some kind of lesser other who can be swept aside or ignored. Elements? It’s almost non-human.
You should choose your words more carefully.
Bystander – Coloured is not an offensive term in some places in the world but in America it is seen as a very loaded term and dated term like “Negro”. It is offensive as harkens back to the era of scientific racism. It is like the term Oriental – by itself it is not racist – but if used to describe an Asian it is.
Pardon my ignorance but does the constitution specifically state that the US must be a democracy, i.e. that people have the right to vote for the president every four years? If so, Trump’s statement sounds like he is threatening to stage a coup if elected this year. Surely then he should be charged with high treason, or is he relying on the get out of jail free immunity card that his SCOTUS mates have handed him?