Joe Biden withdraws

A thread for discussion of developments in US politics — one development in particular.

Adrian Beaumont update at 11:40am: I’ve done an article for The Conversation on Biden’s withdrawal.  It’s too early to analyse polls of Harris vs Trump as Harris hasn’t been a presidential candidate until today.  Economic data is improving, and Harris is much younger than Trump.  But it’s a very risky move as Harris hasn’t been battle-tested in primaries, and failed in 2020.  However, Democrats needed to take the risk as Biden’s age is of great concern and he’s already behind.  US Senate polls have the Democrats doing well, implying Biden was a drag.

Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential election race, “to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.

Discuss.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,678 comments on “Joe Biden withdraws”

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  1. Democracy Sausage @ #1546 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 4:24 pm

    Sprocket: Pete Buttigieg above illustrates what a great communicator he is, and reportedly he’s on Kamala Harris’s shortlist for VP.
    Or he’d make a fairly decent Secretary of State, he can speak 5 languages after all.

    What do I know? (Thanks, Wat Tyler 😉 ) But I have had a similar thought about Pete Buttigieg floating around inside my cranium for a while as well. Secretary of State Buttigieg would blow the world’s Ultra Conservative leader’s minds. 😀

  2. At the end of the Villages video, one of the organisers is talking about a post of the commencement of the parade – in one hour – 687,000 views.

    Perhaps Florida is in play.

    The Ron DeSantis abortion-ban law is on the ballot. This polling was from before Biden stood aside for Harris..

    If recent polling is correct, Florida is likely to pass a constitutional amendment to legalize abortion rights while voting in large numbers for Republicans Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who threaten those same rights. A CBS/YouGov poll released in late May showed Amendment 4 — which would make abortion legal up to the point of viability — would meet the 60% threshold needed for approval. Another May Florida Chamber of Commerce poll found the amendment would get 61% support among Florida voters. Both polls showed Trump and Scott leading their Democratic opponents comfortably. Here’s what that could mean:

    First, the hope of Democrats that abortion rights could put Florida back in play for them isn’t guaranteed to materialize. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling that overturned abortion rights under Roe v. Wade helped Democrats fend off a Republican wave in the 2022 midterm elections. But there’s nuance to that. In other states where voters approved abortion rights referendums they also elected GOP candidates, even if they were against those same rights. Voters, after all, don’t always behave in straightforward partisan ways. Biden’s disastrous debate performance was made worse by his struggle to articulate his position on abortion, which should have been easy. Like many of his answers, his position was incomprehensible. If the party’s standard bearer cannot make the case for reproductive rights, that signals trouble.

    Second, the polls suggest that support for reproductive rights transcends the bitter division between MAGA and anti-MAGA voters. If the results hold up in November, that probably means some voters will vote for Amendment 4 and Trump. That might be because abortion, unlike the economy and inflation, ranks lower on the list of Florida voters’ priorities, according to the CBS/YouGov poll. Trump has boasted about appointing the three U.S. Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade. In 2023, he said he was “proud to be the most pro-life president,” though now he’s tried to soften his stance on the issue ahead of the November election. Yet, tellingly, 51% of voters in the CBS/YouGov poll neither blame or credit Trump with the overturn of Roe. Again, that might quash Democratic aspirations that abortion is their secret weapon in Florida.

    Third, these polls suggest how out of touch the Republican-led Legislature was in passing the six-week abortion ban Amendment 4 would overturn. Even within the GOP there’s sizable support for reproductive rights. The CBS poll showed that 41% of Republicans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases (among all voters, that support was at 65%). Perhaps Floridians across the political spectrum are beginning to see what happens to women when strict bans like Florida’s are in place: often, they cannot get the care they need when a pregnancy goes wrong because doctors are afraid to perform emergency abortions out of fear the state might second guess their medical decision.

    Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article289936494.html#storylink=cpy

  4. I should clarify I am not saying anyone’s wrong or other’s don’t know what they’re talking about, or anything like that. Just offering the usual caution when it comes to “Veepstakes” because there’s always a lot of noise.

  6. I don’t want to be that commenter who rains on everyone’s enthusiasm. But calm the farm, peoples!

    This is going to be a very close, nail biting election. Trump still has the advantage, and should be regarded as the front runner. Harris is running to catch up, but she is at a disadvantage time-wise with only 100 days until the election.

    We should therefore assume:

    – Harris will be hit with the mother of all misogynistic campaigns thrown at her (hello, Julia Gillard!), with the added element of racism from the GOP.
    – Florida is not in play.
    – Harris will be hit with the mother of all misogynistic campaigns thrown at her (hello, Julia Gillard!), with the added element of racism from the GOP.
    – If Shapiro is the VP pick expect the Republicans and anti Dems to play the anti-semitism card and the pro-Gaza crazies to be out protesting everywhere.
    – Harris will be hit with the mother of all misogynistic campaigns thrown at her (hello, Julia Gillard!), with the added element of racism from the GOP.
    – The Republicans and their far reaching media apparatus will lie and steal in order to frame this as a Trump-oriented preternatural Trump victory.
    – Harris will be hit with the mother of all misogynistic campaigns thrown at her (hello, Julia Gillard!), with the added element of racism from the GOP.

  7. So the Daily Mail finds an ex-staffer who says Harris is a tough boss who doesn’t take crap.

    Seems like a good trait for someone aiming to be in charge of the world’s policeman

  8. Confessions
    Yes, it will be close. But at least there is some scope for optimism now where there wasn’t before.

  9. So the Daily Mail finds an ex-staffer who says Harris is a tough boss who doesn’t take crap.

    This is recycled shit from 2019.

  10. Bystander @ #1558 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 8:05 pm

    Confessions
    Yes, it will be close. But at least there is some scope for optimism now where there wasn’t before.

    Just keep a lid on the hyper enthusiasm. If the Dems win then for sure, let your hair down. But for now the Republicans are favourites to win. Remember that.

  11. I don’t mind the extra enthusiasm, as long as it doesn’t lead to complacency, at least among Democrats.

    Being optimistic and buoyed by certain things is a good thing because it motivates people to donate, volunteer and vote. It also gives the casual voter a feeling of a “moment” occurring.

    However, yeah, as long as it doesn’t lead to them putting their feet up and saying “Yeah, we got this in the bag” and being lazy with campaigning and GOTV, or encouraging voters to say “Nah, I ain’t gonna stand in line today. She doesn’t need my vote anyway” or “I can afford to give a protest vote to a third party because it won’t make a difference.” One of the multitude of things that went wrong for Democrats in the left was the belief that places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were in the bag for Clinton, so they didn’t have to worry that hard about it (and typically Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t like Clinton could stay at home or vote third party, guilt-free.)

    Of course, that’s the risk for them being overconfident. The risk of overconfidence on this board is we end up looking like hubristic tits, and open ourselves to a torrent of abuse and “Nyah nyah! Told you so!” and “Heh heh, the PB Brains Trust gets another one wrong!” from the same people who never have to eat their humble pie when they’re wrong about something.

  12. sprocket_ @ #1563 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 8:00 pm

    So the Daily Mail finds an ex-staffer who says Harris is a tough boss who doesn’t take crap.

    Seems like a good trait for someone aiming to be in charge of the world’s policeman

    The Daily Fail does it again. Cherry-picks who to interview, then writes a story around them. Hmm, I wonder if the individual complaining to The Daily Mail was up to the standard required for the job they had been chosen to do? Probably not. So, sour grapes used in order to create an impression about Kamala Harris.

    As sprocket_ says, having exacting standards is actually qualifying when it comes to being the Leader of the Free World. Except when it comes to Herr Drumpf, of course.

  18. If Venezuela manages to change president with this election, the benefit of cheaper oil in the Western hemisphere markets will seriously lower inflation and boost the Biden economic credentials.

  19. Confessions says Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 7:48 pm

    I don’t want to be that commenter who rains on everyone’s enthusiasm. But calm the farm, peoples!

    This is going to be a very close, nail biting election. Trump still has the advantage, and should be regarded as the front runner. Harris is running to catch up, but she is at a disadvantage time-wise with only 100 days until the election.

    100 days is over three months. She’s inherited an organisation she can build on. There’s still plenty of time.

    In some ways I think a shorter campaign might not be a bad thing. It will be easier to maintain enthusiasm, and she’ll still appear fresh.

  21. Interesting poll that one fess. I’ve just been reading what seems like a plethora of opinions on how Harris must campaign to gain favourability and win the election. FFS, I hope she isn’t getting this from the campaign advisers. She’d twist her selves in knots. Exactly like Clinton did. She will look fake and tentative.

    The desperate need to avoid alienating way too many demographics is so Democrat.

  22. The biggest challenge for the Democrats is whether they can win without Michigan. It saved Biden in the last election, but since the Gaza war it has stopped supporting Democrats due to their support of Israel. Unless Harris takes a solid stance (unlikely while Biden is still president) then Democrat voters will not turn out to the election and Trump will take the state.

  23. Bean,
    Poll wise – Michigan looks very winnable for Harris.

    I am not sure what a solid stance in stopping support for Israel would look like. But I doubt Harris would have to do too much wrt to this. Trump will do this work for her. He will (has) visibly cosy up with Netanyahu. He will try to paint Harris as pro muslim (read anti American).

    I very much doubt she would promise to not use the US veto in any future resolutions – she might do it tho, but she wont promise to do it. I very much doubt she will stop all (or significantly reduce) military assistance. She will likely strike a more harsh tone with Netanyahu.

    Events in the ME may overwhelm the tightwire dance anyway.

  24. Dems aiming to persuade the young and independent potential voters:

    US Democrats have spent recent days trying out a relatively new attack line on Donald Trump: that he is weird. The tactic is almost certainly calibrated to resonate with young and independent voters who, polls show, are moving from marked disinterest in the now-dropped matchup between Joe Biden and his presidential predecessor to engagement in the 100-day contest between Trump and Kamala Harris.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/28/kamala-harris-trump-weird

  25. Of course, Whitmer as VP would help hold Michigan. And I see no overall downside in two women on the ticket.

    I do wonder that some of the VP suggestions are clearly great candidates for POTUS – like Whitmer and Shapiro and Newsom (although he isnt a serious contender being also from Cal). If these peeps desperately want to be POTUS, they might not be sold on the idea that VP is a stepping stone to it. It may actually hinder their chances.

    Personally, I keep coming back to Harris’ not being the best communicator and that she needs someone with more clarity in oration. Part of why Mark Kelly isnt top of my list even tho he ticks lots of other boxes and why I think Buttigieg is very much in contention (plus his military background).

  27. Speaking of Michigan, Harris seems fully aware of the need to recognise the concerns of Muslim Americans over Gaza. She just made a statement saying she “would not be silent” over Gaza. Harris and Netanyahu just had a “frank meeting”.

    “Kamala Harris said she pressed Benjamin Netanyahu about her concerns about the humanitarian situation in Gaza in “frank” talks in Washington that are being closely watched for indications of how she might deal with Israel if she becomes president.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/series/us-politics-live-with-chris-stein

    And this story covers polling by Black Futures Lab, which finds that Kamala Harris was already popular with black voters before the switch. 71% trust Harris, compared to 5% trusting Trump.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/25/harris-trump-election-black-voters

  28. To any US voter that hasn’t yet recognised Trump as a conman grifter and liar, they would at least see him as weird.

  29. Another demographic to ponder in the US elections is Ukrainian Americans. There are quite a few. Curiously, the largest concentrations of them are in Michigan, [Ohio] and Pennsylvania. Timothy Snyder covers this in his latest sub-stack piece:

    “Given the strange American electoral system, certain states matter more than others. Ukrainian-Americans are 1% of the population of Pennsylvania, and 0.5% of the population of Michigan. If Trump wins those two states, he will win the general election. If Harris wins those two states, then she will win the general election.

    In Michigan, the number of Ukrainian-Americans is greater than Trump’s margin of victory in the state in 2016. In Pennsylvania, the number of Ukrainian-Americans is greater than Trump’s margin of victory in that state in 2016, and also greater than that of Biden’s margin of victory in 2020.

    In other words, the votes of Ukrainian-Americans might decide whether Ukraine continues to exist. ”

    Trump has threatened to cut Ukraine loose many time. A smart Harris campaign might play on this in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

  30. Speaking of weird, how about the conservative Christians who identify as freedom loving conservatives.

    They would have to be one of the most extremist and anti-freedom demographics, that demands assimilation, out there.

    Outraged at anything that’s outside their doctrine.

  32. Excuse me, Mr Bowe, I think we could do with a fresh American election thread soon? Perhaps when Harris announces a VP? That is going to occur before next Wednesday.

  33. Speaking of weird, how about the conservative Christians who identify as freedom loving conservatives.

    You’re misconstruing the word “freedom” there. When those people talk of freedom, they’re referring to the freedom of money and moneyed corporate entities to do as they damn well please. Hasn’t got a thing to do with rights and civil liberties as they’re generally understood.

  34. Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and the Tottering American Empire

    … In fairness I finally watched the full ninety-minute debate a couple of days ago and it entirely confirmed those claims of his serious mental impairment. Although Trump hardly seemed a brilliant policy expert, being just as blustery, boastful, and sometimes mistaken as always, he was as fully alert as he had been in 2020 or even 2016. But Biden came across as elderly and mentally befuddled, more like a nursing home patient than the plausible chief executive of the world’s global superpower.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/donald-trump-kamala-harris-and-the-tottering-american-empire/

  35. At this point I hope the VP is one of Walz, Beshear or Kelly.

    Beshear has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to speak to and be liked by Republican-leaning voters. Walz is a good attack dog and an ideal style contrast for Harris. And Kelly is charismatic and has a hell of a story. I didn’t know much about Walz in particular, but he’s clearly auditioning for the role and I’m liking what I’m seeing.

    I don’t get the fondness for Buttigieg here (as a smug white liberal who used to work for McKinsey, Vance couldn’t come up with a more desirable foil if he got to pick the VP himself) or Shapiro (an average well-spoken white guy who unlike every other VP candidate is objectionable to a part of the Democratic coalition over Gaza, and specifically in the swing state of Michigan ). There’s no upside to either of them.

    And as much as I’d have liked to see Whitmer or Warnock as top of the ticket, each has the same problem: America is not ready for an all-woman or all-black presidential ticket.

  36. Is it illegal for someone to pay a candidate to drop out? If not Trump should consider a large lump sum to Kennedy. Not sure an offer of a job would be good enough to buy him off, there’s uncertainty with that.

  38. Wishcasting only: Buttigieg for VP.

    Otherwise how about a totally left filed (Centre right field) nomination of Liz Cheney – one of about 6 sane Republicans as a unity ticket against Drumpf.

    I’m still stunned Drumpf didn’t nominate one of his children!

  39. Wishcasting only: Buttigieg for VP.

    Otherwise how about a totally left filed (Centre right field) nomination of Liz Cheney – one of about 6 sane Republicans as a unity ticket against Drumpf.

    I’m still stunned Drumpf didn’t nominate one of his children!

  40. It seems very unlikely that the Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro would be chosen as the vice-presidential nomination for the simply reason that his selection would antagonize a huge number of voters that Kamala Harris desperately needs. About three-quarters of Democratic voters disapprove of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Josh Shapiro’s position of not only making excuses for Israel but also going out of his way to insult and malign people who have the temerity to disapprove of war crimes is massively out of step with regular Democrats.

  41. Harris needs to hurry up and commit to continuing Biden’s progressive policies and get Bernie fully onboard.

  42. Team Katich @ #1571 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 8:22 am

    Interesting poll that one fess. I’ve just been reading what seems like a plethora of opinions on how Harris must campaign to gain favourability and win the election. FFS, I hope she isn’t getting this from the campaign advisers. She’d twist her selves in knots. Exactly like Clinton did. She will look fake and tentative.

    The desperate need to avoid alienating way too many demographics is so Democrat.

    Everything I’ve read, combined with my recollection of her 2019 campaign suggests that back then she tried to campaign as a left leaning liberal when that isn’t her true inclination. It made her look inauthentic, and if there’s one thing voters can smell from a mile away it’s fake and inauthentic.

    She has the perfect and quite logical response to Team Trump’s dredging up of all her old positions and that is for her to simply own it but then to state she’s spent the past 3.5 years as VP for the nation, not senator for a state. This has exposed her to nuances about the country she may not have appreciated through the state lens of a senator.

    And besides, if Vance can do a complete 180 turnaround on Trump, then it’s completely disingenuous for Republicans to castigate Harris for changing her opinions on policy issues now that she’s been at the national table.

  43. David Axelrod’s advice was that Kamala Harris has to campaign as though she was dancing like no one was looking.

  44. Nicholas @ #1590 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 4:31 pm

    It seems very unlikely that the Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro would be chosen as the vice-presidential nomination for the simply reason that his selection would antagonize a huge number of voters that Kamala Harris desperately needs. About three-quarters of Democratic voters disapprove of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Josh Shapiro’s position of not only making excuses for Israel but also going out of his way to insult and malign people who have the temerity to disapprove of war crimes is massively out of step with regular Democrats.

    Nicholas,
    As a staunch critic of Israel, are you going to, on the other hand, condemn Hezbollah for firing a rocket into a soccer field in Israel, killing children? Or, as some of the more recalcitrant supporters of Palestine, are you going to make a mealy-mouthed excuse for another Muslim country’s atrocity against Israel?

  46. Shapiro has taken a very nuanced stance on the war. I don’t think you can characterise his statements as excuses for Israel.

  47. Badthinker @ #1584 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 2:10 pm

    Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and the Tottering American Empire

    … In fairness I finally watched the full ninety-minute debate a couple of days ago and it entirely confirmed those claims of his serious mental impairment. Although Trump hardly seemed a brilliant policy expert, being just as blustery, boastful, and sometimes mistaken as always, he was as fully alert as he had been in 2020 or even 2016. But Biden came across as elderly and mentally befuddled, more like a nursing home patient than the plausible chief executive of the world’s global superpower.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/donald-trump-kamala-harris-and-the-tottering-american-empire/

    Ron Unz, a guy who writes extensively for The American Conservative, and a couple of whose other think pieces are these:

    California and the End of White America, Commentary, October 1999, 8,700 words

    Gay Marriages Today, Polygamy Tomorrow?, The San Francisco Chronicle, October 8, 1999, 700 words

    Like we should believe what HE has to say. 🙄

  48. B. S. Fairman @ #1582 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 1:26 pm

    Excuse me, Mr Bowe, I think we could do with a fresh American election thread soon? Perhaps when Harris announces a VP? That is going to occur before next Wednesday.

    I have enjoyed having the separate US elections thread. But this one does feel like it’s slowly grinding to a natural death.

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