Adrian Beaumont update at 11:40am: I’ve done an article for The Conversation on Biden’s withdrawal. It’s too early to analyse polls of Harris vs Trump as Harris hasn’t been a presidential candidate until today. Economic data is improving, and Harris is much younger than Trump. But it’s a very risky move as Harris hasn’t been battle-tested in primaries, and failed in 2020. However, Democrats needed to take the risk as Biden’s age is of great concern and he’s already behind. US Senate polls have the Democrats doing well, implying Biden was a drag.
Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential election race, “to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Discuss.
Confessions @ #1598 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 6:21 pm
We’re just experiencing the come down from what has been one of the most turbulent months in (at least recent) US political history. It’s a bit hard to really offer any good analysis at this point when there are so many variables at play. Until Harris’s running mate is announced or some some big relevant news occurs, it’s pretty much just mundane stuff until the Convention. It’s even too early to really pay close attention to polls.
On a personal level, it’s also different from last time because this time I am not inside all the time because of quarantine. I work, I go out etc. In fact, I get a bit claustrophobic and anxious if I spend too much time online nowadays, so I have less stuff to say. Also, the “Veepstakes” stuff is getting a bit manic in certain corners online and I think people are forming “camps” on that issue – which is troubling because most people will end up disappointed (Honestly, as long as they add something to the ticket and don’t become a distraction during the campaign, I don’t care.)
This thread is getting bloated though, so I do hope a new one comes soon. Frankly, I cannot stand the main thread nowadays, so this thread is a welcome diversion.
On the BTC video he talks with Mark Elias about whether JD Vance can be replaced.
Seems as though there’s no way JD Vance can be replaced, according to Mark Elias. Not by Donald Trump, not by the RNC. But if JD Vance ‘decides’ to drop out, some states would allow that, not many after candidates have been certified and ballots have been printed.
C@t:
What astounds me about the Veepstakes is that Tim Walz was not a name mentioned when Harris started her presidential campaign. But through a series of videos posted on socials last week showing his straight talking, he’s come to be a serious contender. And he’s the same age as Brad Pitt. 😮
We know that Harris is said to favour a VP with executive experience. This would presumably rule out Kelly. But the other thing with Kelly is that his senate seat is crucial and it’s probably best he stays there for now.
While I’m enjoying Walz’s loquacious laid back straight talking, there is something about this that screams lack of care factor, that I just wonder whether he would have a broad appeal. Perhaps it’s just me, but I’m not feeling this guy.
They’re stuck with him. Republicans should just hope he’s more of a Quayle than a Palin (i.e. the ticket wins regardless of how distractingly bad the VP choice is)
I feel the same fwiw.
I’d be delighted if Trump is stuck with Vance, but as we’ve seen with Trump, rules, process and precedence don’t matter to him at all. If he wants Vance gone, Vance will be gone.
If you listen to BTC, he thinks Tim Walz doesn’t offer many advantages for the campaign. Minnesota is not a Swing State, and Walz is also a very Progressive Governor. So, the ‘radical liberal’ ticket might stick if Kamala chooses him.
Otoh, I’m starting to come down on the side of Mark Kelly. The Astronaut and the Prosecutor. Makes it hard for the Rethugs to criticise Harris’ VP pick. Also, Katie Hobbs can choose his replacement (pity Reuben Gallego can’t be chosen because he is successfully running for the other AZ senate seat), but that gives whoever is chosen 2 years to establish themselves, and if Hobbs picks another McCainesque Democrat then they should be able to carry the next Senate election they stand in.
As far as the naming date for Kamala’s VP, BTC thinks August 3,4 or 5. The Democrats virtual convention is on Aug 8. Also, he mischievously suggested making the announcement the day Trump goes back to Butler, Pa, so as to take the news cycle bump he’s trying to get out of it away from him. 😀
I approve of this tactic.
I also agree re Walz. I just don’t know how he would play on a national stage.
So if it’s true Harris wants a VP with executive experience (large grain of salt), and given Whitmer has ruled herself out, this leaves Shapiro who has limited executive experience as a new Governor, or Roy Cooper. Cooper is old, but he isn’t the presidential candidate.
I’m not averse to Kelly who has huge advantages. As I’ve said before, Dems are so lucky to have so many great choices!
Frankly, I cannot stand the main thread nowadays, so this thread is a welcome diversion.
Ditto.
Though I’m tempted to provide a bit of balance to the Greens and LNP operatives who are trying to take it over. Most of the time though I just read what is being said and go, ugh. Not that it should be a Labor love-in, but when people introduce fake news and views in order to colour perceptions about the government, or simply abuse, deride and condescend to others who are guilty of the ‘crime’ of supporting Labor, for no other reason than they are…supporters of Labor, then the whole shebang becomes kind of pointless. I don’t mind a good debate on the merits, but there are those now who are experts in the ‘art’ of tearing down the government for no good reason but to advance their party, right or wrong. I guess it worked for the referendum, so they’re trying it again for the election.
Roy Cooper has ruled himself out, so it is being said, because he doesn’t want to hand his state to the Republicans if he leaves. What a selfless act! That only a Democratic Governor would do. This is because the Lieutenant Governor is Mark Robinson, the extremist who is running for the Senate for the Republican Party.
What is a nuanced position on war crimes?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/29/biden-supreme-court-reform-ethics-code-term-limits/
C@t:
Oh, I wasn’t aware Cooper had ruled himself out.
C@t, yes, polls underestimated Witmer – but that was a midterm. I was taking aim at Potus elections.
I have noted before how Emerson struggled in 2022 in the rust belt. Particular wrt Fetterman – Senate PA. We can add they underestimated Witmer too (by 5pts). Howevs…. If you take out Emerson and the Repug pollster, the average polls were not far off Witmer winning margin. One poll was very close. They get a bad transparency score from 538 so not highly rated. But they do seem to get it close a lot. Glengariff.
EPIC pollster were the best for that one.
Confessions @ #1614 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 7:46 pm
If a contested election goes back to the states, you want Roy Cooper there, not Mark Robinson.
Nicholas @ #1612 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 7:44 pm
Will you ever condemn Hamas and Hezbollah for their crimes, Nicholas? The latest being the attack on the Israeli kids’ soccer game just last week. Or don’t you do impartiality?
Harris doesn’t need a random boring-but-experienced white dude, in the same way that Obama needed Biden. She’s been a senator and she’s been vice-president. What she needs is someone that can fight Trump and Vance on their own ground and appeal to blue-collar and Republican-leaning voters who might be inclined to buy into characterisations of Harris as an inner-city Liberal, or who are susceptible to Trump and Vance’s messaging and style.
Walz has been winning elections in Republican-leaning territory for years, and he seems to be really smart in the way he frames his messaging to that end. He’s squarely in the Democratic mainstream, so he’s acceptable to the whole Democratic coalition, and he’s capable of selling those views in a way that’s appealing to exactly the kinds of voters Harris needs to win. He’s also hard to caricature – it’s a lot more difficult to characterise someone as a scary progressive/elite if they don’t remotely look or talk the part. I think the days of selecting vice-presidential candidates from swing states purely in the hope of carrying that state are dead (there hasn’t been a VP from a swing state since Gore in ’92).
I worry about Kelly, the more I think about it. He’s got a great story to tell – but he’s not as good in interviews as most of the others, he’s not as much of a fighter as many of the others, and as an ex-astronaut his background can be framed as an elite as well. I don’t know that he actually adds a lot, even though I like him.
It isn’t just Walz who could hit the right kind of contrast, in terms of being able to reach out to voters Harris is likely to have trouble with – Beshear does much the same, with a bit of a kinder touch.
(I don’t know who “BTC” is, but if he’s seriously talking about Vance dropping out – a complete fantasy – and characterising strengths based on things that went out of fashion in the (Bill) Clinton era, I don’t think he’s much of an analyst.)
Given that a fair bit of the Democratic left dislikes Harris but not enough to split, she also needs a VP that doesn’t actively piss off a decent chunk of her own voters – and she’s spoilt for choice in that all the contenders but Shapiro are broadly well-liked across the party.
Harris has done extremely well to get the party behind her in 2024 despite the lingering dislike of her on the left, largely because she hasn’t done anything to kick the left in the teeth recently. Shapiro’s the one own goal move here: he’s uniquely controversial among the VP candidates on multiple issues, his views on said issues risk a backlash that could put Michigan out of reach, and his selection is likely to play into the existing distrust of Harris in parts of the coalition. He brings nothing other candidates don’t, and he could quite plausibly stop Harris from being able to hold together the whole Democratic coalition in the same way Obama and Biden did.
I don’t have a strong opinion on the Democrat VP choice. Not that it isn’t important, but the good news is that there are multiple good choices. IMO any of Shapiro, Kelly, Buttigeig or Walz would be a good pick.
Whitmer would be good too, but two female picks seems unlikely.
Buttigeig being gay may be a negative (not with all demographics) although I think his communication skills and appeal to youth migth be worth it.
Overall the least risk picks seem to be Kelly and Shapiro (since Cooper is out). Shapiro helps with a larger State (Penn) but Kelly also helps with Arizona and probably New Mexico and Nevada as well. More improtantly he helps with immigration and the border, Harris’s weakest issue.
So for me its Kelly to play it safe and Buttigeig if you want to gamble on the upside.
Confessions says Monday, July 29, 2024 at 7:09 pm
Wow, I never realised I was younger than Brad Pitt (by less than a year). I also never realised Brad Pitt’s first name is William.
Tim Walz and Kamala Harris were both born in 1964. So they will soon be the same age 🙂
Socrates says Monday, July 29, 2024 at 9:49 pm
I’m not sure Kelly really has the political experience yet.
As an aside, Walz was the highest ranking retired enlisted soldier ever to serve in Congress. He also represented a rural area that normally voted Republican.
Wow, I never realised I was younger than Brad Pitt (by less than a year). I also never realised Brad Pitt’s first name is William.
William Pitt the Older. 😉
(I don’t know who “BTC” is, but if he’s seriously talking about Vance dropping out – a complete fantasy – and characterising strengths based on things that went out of fashion in the (Bill) Clinton era, I don’t think he’s much of an analyst.)
Rebecca,
If you had been bothered to actually watch the video I posted you would have learnt that Brian Tyler Cohen WASN’T saying that Vance is going to be replaced but instead was discussing with Mark Elias, the Democratic Party’s pre-eminent political litigator, whether it was possible, and, you would have learnt that it is not. But hey, if you want to diss one of America’s foremost Progressive and insightful political commenters, I can’t stop you I suppose.
It’s interesting the change in tone from the Dems since the change to Harris.
The comms have become cheekier, a little more “cool”, with a real edge to it.
The emphasis on the weirdness of Trump/Vance is quite clever. They’re not calling them nuts or psychos (even though they are) as that would have mental health overtones.
Just “weird”. Very clever.. Seems to be resonating.
The “Christians, my beautiful Christians … you’ll never have to vote again”
was spooky.
I’d like to see mainstream Christian leaders challenge Trump on that, but the, er, ‘bad news’ over the last 30 years or so has left them shell shocked and fearful, i’m afraid.
Not sure Buttigieg actually polls all that well with youth – his appeal is more wonder-kid-that-Boomers-think-appeals-to-youth.
Again, Shapiro is the one candidate from the entire prospective VP pool who has a range of internally controversial views within the Democratic voter coalition. There will be backlash and voters who will stay home if Shapiro is the pick who wouldn’t with literally anyone else in contention. Harris doesn’t need his help to win Pennsylvania, and could quite plausibly lose Michigan as a direct result of his views. There’s no choices among the prospective nominees (apart from perhaps Pritzker or Newsom) who aren’t “safe” or could be easily portrayed as scary to swing voters.
C@tmomma: Every single president since Clinton has picked a VP who addressed their biggest weaknesses, not because of the state they were from – in large part because the evidence in recent decades is that a nominee from a swing state doesn’t help significantly in that state. I have trouble believing some guy I’ve never heard of who seems to be spouting political orthodoxy stuck in 1992 is one of “America’s foremost Progressive and insightful political commenters”.
Rebecca, the internet is full of these younger progressive mostly blokes doing these opinion youtube vids. I avoid them because, mostly, they are too partisan (often clouding their judgement) and trying to tell you what to think – interspersed with some good information and occasionally worthwhile P’sOV. Cohen has been doing it for quite some time and is one of the better ones.
Harris blasts new ‘Trump abortion ban’ in Iowa
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/29/2259058/-Harris-blasts-new-Trump-abortion-ban-in-Iowa?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
“Vice President Kamala Harris redefined the abortion debate on Monday, putting the responsibility for state bans squarely on Donald Trump. Responding to the harsh, six-week ban that took effect in Iowa on Monday, she called it what it is: a “Trump abortion ban.”
“Today Iowa put in place a Trump abortion ban, which makes Iowa the 22nd state in our country to have a Trump abortion ban, and this ban is going to take effect before many women even know they’re pregnant,” she said in a video released by her campaign. “What this means is that 1 in 3 women of reproductive age in America lives in a state with a Trump abortion ban.”
That’s three times she said the word “abortion” and three times she made Trump own these extreme state laws.
Iowa follows Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in banning abortion after a fetal “heartbeat” can be detected, at about six weeks of gestation. What’s actually being heard, medical experts say, is electrical pulses as the system that will eventually become a heart forms. There’s no science behind these bans, just the policy of punishing women.
Beyond Harris, Democrats were quick to respond. Here’s Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, welcoming Iowans to come to his state for care.
“
Am I the only one who thinks Tim Walz physically looks somewhat like John Howard? Like he could be a long lost cousin in a daytime soap.
Rebecca,
Hmm, who to vote for in Michigan? The guy who wants to deport Muslims, or the lady who will make sure that will never happen. Difficult choice I know. Not.
And the Dearborn Muslims are unlikely to stay home either. Again, because, when you are quite literally voting for your life in America, then the choice is easy. Get out and vote as if your life depends on it.
B. S. Fairman @ #1628 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 9:37 am
Wow!
Kamala Harris will turn up for scheduled debate on 10 Sept on ABC even if Trump doesn’t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoN5TXyxB6U
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-just-had-his-worst-week-ever-vance-harris
🙂
C@tmomma: Clinton making similar assumptions and failing to hold her own party’s usual coalition together as a result was how Trump got elected the first time. Thankfully, Biden did not make the same mistake.
It speaks to their incompetence that Trump and the Republicans didn’t even plan for the oldest man alive to not be in the running for President, especially after calling for him to drop out for the last year.
To see them suffering in their jocks is one of the few moments of enjoyment I get in my day to day life
Rebecca @ #1633 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 10:15 am
And the proof that Kamala Harris isn’t holding the Democratic Party coalition together is where?
I’m really glad that President Biden feels unburdened now by the campaign and has decided to take action wrt the Supreme Court. 🙂
I will say there is one big factor as well that is generating momentum for Harris, and that is change.
It’s hard to quantify this but I will bet that people are sick to death of hearing from Trump. I mean seriously it’s been 12 years. We saw that the assassination atttempt generated no increase of polling because people are sick seriously sick of this guy. Now that Harris is the presumptive nominee, people don’t have to witness the daily gaffes and stumbles from Biden, it makes voting Democrat an easier pill to swallow, and that could very well be all they need. I think getting rid of Biden also shows that they are somewhat serious about winning (something which I haven’t honestly believed since Obama’s last term).
This thread seems to have a life of its own. Well good. It’s somewhere to drop a random thought on US politics.
—
American mythology includes different pieces. There’s pride, exceptionalism, winning, confidence, individualism, and so on. You see it in the Presidents. But an often-overlooked piece is an awareness that the people of the USA have always “made it up as they go along”. The “founding fathers” are part of this mythology, but they are remembered or revered as people who got much right and much wrong, and importantly, that they passed the torch. That’s a profound ideology to accept into your identity as a nation. You exist (in part) to make things better. It’s why “We’re not going back.” resonates. It’s why “Make America Areat Again” resonates. They may be opposites, but they stem from the same myth.
We have it in Australia as well, but in Australia it’s personal, private. We value the people and organisations who embody it, and we’re proud of Australia’s achievements, but it’s not baked into the identity of what Australia is.
It’s just a thought.
Josh Shapiro compared pro-peace protesters to members of the KKK. He warned Pennsylvania state government employees thinking of engaging in pro-peace protests that they might be at risk of engaging in “scandalous conduct” (as though protesting in favour of peace is inherently scandalous). The idea that he is an enlightened moderate on the Gaza conflict is absurd. He has an extreme pro-Israel stance that the vast majority of Democrats don’t support. If he were to become the vice-presidential nominee it would split the Democratic party. There are plenty of other options who would be better.
This video is an example of my previous thought. At the 4-minute mark Biden starts promoting term limits for SCOTUS with the words “We must be clear. Their work, our work is not done.”
https://youtu.be/bNSNae2HJiQ
Biden goes on, “To do this job [to make things better] that Lincoln started.” The election campaign theme is clear, that the GOP under T**** is the opposite of making it better, it’s the opposite of what being the USA means. US voters are attuned to hear that sort of message. It might work if they push it loud enough and clearly enough.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper removes himself from Harris VP consideration
Roy Cooper on Monday said it isn’t the right time for him to join a national ticket, as two sources familiar with the discussions told CNN the North Carolina governor had removed himself from consideration as Kamala Harris’ running mate in a sign that the accelerated search has entered a new phase.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/29/politics/harris-vice-president-roy-cooper/index.html
I believe Roy Cooper would never have accepted because of North Carolina’s weird rules. The Lieutenant Governor (republican Mark Robinson) actually has Judicial and Executive power, only overruled by the Governor. If he were absent then that would essentially grant Republicans complete control of the state and is something they have been openly hoping for. I could be wrong but I don’t think Roy Cooper has left North Carolina in at least 4 years.
North Carolina GOP are very determined to keep their stranglehold on the state. Remember in 2018 the Dems outpolled them by over 2pts but the House of Reps went to the GOP by 65-55!
While there have been legal efforts and successes to control the gerrymandering of the GOP, it might be too late as the GOP in 2022 markedly increased their state vote.
Democrats have hopes here considering Coopers success and Biden got close in 2020 – and some polling is ok (v early days for this sort of poll) for the 2024 gubernatorial dem candidate. But gaining control of state legislature there seems a tall hurdle.
I should also mention Mark Robinson is a certified loony. Holocaust Denier, anti-everything, racist, islamophobic, etc.
Bean @ #1642 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 1:45 pm
Exactly. And that is exactly the sort of scenario that you describe that the Rethugs would do in a flash.
Nicholas @ #1639 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 12:10 pm
Nicholas,
Have you condemned the Hezbollah attack on the Israeli kid’s soccer game last week yet? I may have missed it.
To which I can only add that the ‘pro peace’ crowd have a funny way of showing it. 😐
Some more on Tim Walz as a VP pick for Harris.
https://youtu.be/guEoyvwwsnM
Even if you’re not a fan of Kyle Kulinski this clip is worth a few minutes of your time if you’re interested in Walz.
Latest Morning Consult poll has Harris 47% to Trump 46%. Big sample of 11,500 registered voters. 50% of voters viewed Harris favorably, up from 43% last week.
evads says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 4:26 pm
Latest Morning Consult poll has Harris 47% to Trump 46%. Big sample of 11,500 registered voters. 50% of voters viewed Harris favorably, up from 43% last week.
________
Nice Honeymoon!
It’s a sobering consideration that even with her ‘honeymoon’, Harris is – at this point – losing the election that matters according to the polls.
Of course she’s competitive and may yet turn that round, but sometimes a reality check is required.
Re ‘holding the coalition together’ I would suggest that without ‘Union Joe’ on the ticket then the blue collar workers are at risk of pealing back to Trump in sufficient numbers to help him over the line in the so-called (misnamed IMO) ‘blue wall’. Piling up enthusiastic young liberals elsewhere may not be sufficient in the states that will count.
In other words, Harris could even get that 4.5% national lead like Biden had last time but still lose the election.