YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.

YouGov, which for a while was reporting every three weeks, returns from a break with its first federal poll in seven weeks (though not yet on their website), showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred compared with 50-50 last time. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation down one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 52%, while Peter Dutton more than recovers after a slump last time, gaining four on approval to 42% and falling five on disapproval to 46%. Albanese holds a 45-37 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 47-36.

The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off, with only 10% nominating the tax cuts that recently took effect, followed by 7% for energy rebates. It was conducted a little over a week ago, from July 12 to 17, from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,013 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 21
1 20 21
  1. Thanks for that info Dog’s Brunch.

    Explains a lot.

    Wondered where the booing excitement was coming from.

    Gee’s they are desperate to find any negatives!

  2. steve davissays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 10:19 pm
    That ALABAMA character sounds like a complete RWNJ.
    =================================================

    He is but he is not disguising that fact either. I think he also might enjoy getting a rise out of people too. On the plus side he is selling you a pit bull and he is also telling you it is pit bull. Unlike some who are trying to sell you a pit bull by telling you it is really a labrador.

  3. Steve777 says Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 8:52 pm

    Re Nuclear Power, the three eyed fish aren’t an issue. A well-run nuclear power plant is safe. The waste isn’t voluminous and we have lots of places to bury the stuff where it won’t be a problem.

    One issue is that it has to be managed competently for a lifetime of several decades and eventually decommissioned in an orderly fashion.

    But let’s take all that as given. Replacing fossil fuels with nuclear won’t prevent the escape of a single CO2 molecule into the atmosphere before 2040* at earliest, probably much later than that. Nuclear can’t make a significant contribution to greenhouse emissions for some years after that as more reactors are commissioned. So what do we do in the meantime? We’re not going to let the lights go out.

    And the other question, why would we bother? Renewables are available now, are cheaper, are being rolled out now.

    Nuclear is a wedge and a distraction to cover s determination to maintain fossil fuel profits.

    * we can call bullshit on 2035

    There’s more to it than that. Electrical use is variable, so you want your supply to be able to match usage. You want additional sources that can easily ramp up or down, called firming. You can use things like gas peaking plants or storage (e.g. hydro, batteries) to do that. They complement your main sources of electrical generation, whether that be renewables or nuclear so that inputs match outputs.

    However, renewables and nuclear don’t complement each other but rather compete for what might have been once called base load. The problem for nuclear is that renewables are almost always far cheaper, even with the cost of storage included. But, you can’t just ramp a nuclear plant up and down as you would with a peaking plant or storage.

    Nuclear likely does make sense in other locations where renewables as a major generation source are not feasible. That’s why you are likely to see it deployed in places like northern Europe. However, for Australia it will be too expensive and too late.

  4. Lordbain says Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 10:09 pm

    Slight correction, the notion that luddites are anti tech is a misunderstanding of the original movement, which was about raising concerns relating to how technology would enable a shift of power from the worker to the capitalist… so, they wrte on the money there.
    Propaganda changed the message to appearing to fear tech for the sake of fearing the new, and here we are…

    I think it was more about fearing the loss of their very well paid jobs. That’s an understandable concern, although the methods used by Ned Ludd’s army left a lot to be desired.

  5. Diogenes says Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 8:34 pm

    No surprise to see Giles and O’Neil demoted. Neither had the faintest idea of what they were doing.

    I think the perception in the industry is that O’Neil did good work with the cyber security aspect of her portfolio.


  6. Lordbainsays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 9:46 pm
    sub, please point to me where the Labor party has said they are prepared to negotiate with the Greens

    Point out on what points they are prepared to shift towards the Greens and meet them half way.

    As per last election boting percentage ALP has to move only 12% way and the Greens political party has to move the other 88% of the way not just halh way. I know ALP did not get 88% vote but they are the government .
    or
    At th most the ALP has to move 16% of way because Greens political party has 12 out of 76 senate seats.

  7. “Unlike some who are trying to sell you a pit bull by telling you it is really a labrador.”

    Sounds like Dutton and the MSM.

  8. Dog’s Brunchsays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 10:04 pm
    [At the Raiders game tonight, Albo turned up in Bunnies gear, got a roasting but I guess the trolls here thought it was significant lol!]

    Mr Albanese has been attending South v Raiders games for years.
    Albo, attired in all his Rabbitohs gear gets dropped at the main entrance expecting to be booed and heckled by Raiders fans.
    It’s been happening for years.
    There always seems to be many Souths fans at these games and it is all done in good fun.

  9. The concept of “negotiate” has many meanings and on many occasions many issues “fall over” at the first hurdle.
    The Greens believe their lane should have a lower hurdle or even no hurdle and the negotiation is “still born”.

    The LNP love “the Greens” for this and the Greens love the intention.

  10. nadia88says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 10:58 am
    …………………………………………

    WB poll averaging ticker is at 50.6% 2PP ALP
    KB average sits at 50.8% 2PP ALP

    Expect both these to tighten further when they next adjust their calculations on/around Tues night.
    ================================================
    Bit of dramatic tightening in both WB & KB’s averages, with the inclusion of Redbridge.

    Today…

    * WB now sitting at 50.4% ALP
    * KB sitting at 50.3% ALP (Gosh. big swing KB!-must’ve been the Redbridge sample > 1500)

    Careful pls Mr & Dr. If your computer starts showing 49.9% ALP, it could get ugly.
    I’ve been copping it all month.

Comments Page 21 of 21
1 20 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *