YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.

YouGov, which for a while was reporting every three weeks, returns from a break with its first federal poll in seven weeks (though not yet on their website), showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred compared with 50-50 last time. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation down one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 52%, while Peter Dutton more than recovers after a slump last time, gaining four on approval to 42% and falling five on disapproval to 46%. Albanese holds a 45-37 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 47-36.

The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off, with only 10% nominating the tax cuts that recently took effect, followed by 7% for energy rebates. It was conducted a little over a week ago, from July 12 to 17, from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,013 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. That last bit about most not being able to identify cost of living benefits is troubling if that is going to be #1 issue at the election. Yet the govt jumped to 51-49 from 50-50. Maybe most are underwhelmed with Labors cost of living relief package but don’t think the Coalition have the answers either. We shall see I guess.

  2. Not much of a jump, Sandman. Status quo.

    The only possible change I can see in recent polls is that Dutton’s personal numbers are showing a slight improvement. Absence makes the heart grow fonder? 🙂

  3. Sandman 3.22am,
    [Maybe most are underwhelmed with Labors cost of living relief package but don’t think the Coalition have the answers either. We shall see I guess.]

    I suspect we’ll hear (read) about it on PB in bucket loads.
    Most Australians are “hard pressed” to be able to name the current PM.
    That’s not necessarily a bad thing, particularly if no one is shooting at someone else, no one is storming Parliament house and the weather is kind.
    The Matildas appear a little “underwhelming” in the first half versus Germany.
    If I were a “drinker” I suspect I’d be overwhelmed with price of a glass of beer in a pub !
    I suspect “politics” would not rate highly on the list of Australia’s favourite sports with the Olympics to be navigated, the footy final around the corner, the Spring racing not much more than a furlong away, the Trump circus alive under the ” big top” and the highly anticipated task of Barnaby navigating a sober path to the next election.

  4. “The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off …”

    That’s the cue for a listicle from Boerwar. 😉

  5. Damn now I have to look up.what listicle means- gets used alot on PB. Oh I see, a list of stuff intended to educate the ignorant reader.

  6. Entropy:”Which then has a positive feedback effect increasing atmospheric temperature further.”

    Entropy, I was wondering about all the feedback loops that occur as the atmosphere warms, but I have yet to come across one that is negative. ALL the feedback loops that I am aware of are positive.

    Give me hope, is there any feedback mechanism that you are aware of that is negative?

  7. Yeah I’m still waiting to see a yougov or Newspoll pushing the Dutton mob into a 52-48 2PP or 40% pv pop up and be repeated. Until then it’s all abit boring beyond the usual people reading too much into this or that result. Eg the Greens going to 15 % by years end, Labor up chit Creek or smashing the noalition, blah blah.

  8. The lib/nats propaganda media units starting to bring Peter Dutton and his family into the public by propaganda pieces
    When they done this previously for Abbott,Turnbull Morrison ,it doesn’t turn out good for the federal liberal party leader

  9. Many people believe what they’re told when it comes to climate change.

    It depends entirely on who you listen to.

  10. Oliver Sutton @ #4 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 4:52 am

    “The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off …”

    That’s the cue for a listicle from Boerwar. 😉

    Obviously people still need to be educated. 😉

  11. Sandman @ #1 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 3:22 am

    That last bit about most not being able to identify cost of living benefits is troubling if that is going to be #1 issue at the election. Yet the govt jumped to 51-49 from 50-50. Maybe most are underwhelmed with Labors cost of living relief package but don’t think the Coalition have the answers either. We shall see I guess.

    Consumer Confidence figures took a big jump though. So maybe people are feeling it but expressing it in a different way?

  12. CrowdStrike is facing fresh backlash after giving staff and firms they work with a $10 UberEats voucher to say sorry for a global IT outage that caused chaos across airlines, banks and hospitals last week.
    The cybersecurity company – whose software update on Friday affected 8.5 million computers worldwide – said in an email to its partners that it recognised the incident had caused extra work.
    “To express our gratitude, your next cup of coffee or late night snack is on us!” CrowdStrike wrote, directing people to use a code to access the $10 credit.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce58p0048r0o

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    Eyes are on Sunday’s reshuffle but the government’s fears are about Wednesday’s inflation number, writes Michelle Grattan.
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    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding





    Jim Pavlidis

    Andrew Dyson

    Simon Letch

    Cathy Wilcox

    John Shakespeare

    Fiona Katauskas

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark David

    Mark Knight

    Leak – tasteless

    From the US
























  14. Leadersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 6:27 am
    Entropy:”Which then has a positive feedback effect increasing atmospheric temperature further.”

    Entropy, I was wondering about all the feedback loops that occur as the atmosphere warms, but I have yet to come across one that is negative. ALL the feedback loops that I am aware of are positive.

    Give me hope, is there any feedback mechanism that you are aware of that is negative?
    ________________________

  15. “A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.“
    It would appear reality perception isn’t aligned to listicles, or rusted-on messaging.
    “Are you feeling better off?”
    Hmmm, I still reckon centrist/ shit lite is better at delivery, certainly has a better front bench, unlike post-truthers/ neofascist/ full of shit who seem to be better at focus groups and attack ads, certainly seem bereft of talent, may be they should try some real diversity, merit appointments, reflecting the population. ‘Learning’ from all shit/ shite is appealing to a very small ‘base’.
    Of course, I’d still like to see the major parties in minority fed gov in alliance with no shit progressive Greens or coalition with conservative Teals.
    It’s time, for Ausminster/ Washminster to progress/ advance Australia, fair.

  16. OP

    A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.

    Labor’s comms are terrible.

  17. “Former diplomat David Livingstone opines that Kevin Rudd will not be departing the Australian Embassy in Washington if Trump wins the election. Trump may have a strong record of getting rid of opponents and others who earn his ire, but in Rudd, Trump has met a skilled, cunning and hard-working target who will not be intimidated or easily dislodged.”

    Small fry for Trump. I doubt he will care if he wins the presidency. The only one’s that care is Newscorp with their get square on Rudd. Moving on……

  18. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I was pleased to see the Albanese government make some stronger statements against Israel’s behaviour in occupied Palestinian territory. Given various international court rulings this is not before time. Meanwhile I thought Netanyahu’s statement in Congress was almost unhinged. It was a strident temper tantrum with bullying demands from a man who has refused multiple requests for a ceasefire from the Biden administration.

    “ Israelis involved in expanding territory inside occupied Palestinian areas will be penalised by Australia, hardening the government’s stance towards Israel and breaking what one MP called a long-held taboo against sanctioning figures from Australia’s partner in the Middle East, report Paul Sakkal and Olivia Ireland. Labor MP Julian Hill, who has been campaigning for sanctions for months, has said Wong’s move was a “very welcome step in the right direction.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-breaks-taboo-to-sanction-israelis-after-months-of-pressure-20240725-p5jwel.html

    Like AUKUS and the Australia – US relationship, support for Israel has until recently gone unchallenged in Australia. IMO it is time for that to change.

    How exactly is Australia’s support for Israel in Australia’s national interest? In terms of economy, security and politics, it seems only to bring Australia trouble, with no visible benefits.

    Domestically, the Jewish community is comfortably outnumbered by the muslim community. Many Australian jews are opposed to Israel invading Gaza. They correctly judge it is creating many enemies for Israel, and risking a broader war..

    This does not mean supporting Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran instead. All three are guilty of many crimes. Australia might be better off to switch to the position of India and many European countries, to remain largely neutral in a struggle with no obvious long term solution.

  19. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/26/yougov-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-4/#comment-4335956

    The gov has ‘from the Med Sea to the Euphrates River … Albo’, the opp ‘Reichspotato’, and the 2.PP is 51 – 49?
    Oh dear.
    Hmmm, one of my fav West Wing episode features the butcher’s paper, our messaging, stuff that pops up, their messaging.
    It’s the economy shouldn’t be a surprise surely? Or opportunity (only counting as unemployed those that don’t work an hour, and lets not forget underemployed, rather than flying in more ‘foreign students’ at least the shit lite fed gov understands TAFE/ skills, Whitlam actually uni at well), cost of living …
    Oops. So unreal diversity, benevolent racism, affirmative action doesn’t seem to convince voters, quelle surprise.
    Earlier this week building on flood plains without associated planning and defensive works was covered. Infrastructure in general would be a whole lot more affordable if organisations paid their way, up the income tax free threshold, raise the GST, billionaires faced death taxes …, say for comms, energy, housing, transport, water. XRRT? Royalties. Check out Norway, even Qatar.
    Education then, why is so much public money going to religious/ private schools.
    Environment, 43/ 30, 0/ 50 doesn’t cut it. Science has been quite clear on the why and what. The how of mitigation, adaptation and transformation needs focus for the Australia that is here now, holistic regional development is an opportunity, acreage and quarter acre blocks rather than ever higher density living driving people into rages of all kinds, not a vast Australia. And then there the baselining, and accounting tricks.
    Healthcare, GPs, ramping, Medicare dental? Is private health insurance really working? If so drop the Medicare levy.
    Public safety and security, for another time.
    Though by summer risks/ threats in terms of impact will be climate, health, inequality, governance, powershift (so $$Ns don’t look so hot, stealthy, whatever, stil) …
    Let’s see if the gov having used a small target strategy in 2022, will go with more … as in we had to clean up after a decade of full of shit to 2022, now that we’ve done some of that …
    The Treasurer has the right idea with measuring what matters …, sigh.

  20. NSW state gov paying $160 million a year to house homeless in Hotels and motels.

    Fed labor gov should pay the bill they are bringing in from overseas massive amounts of people.

  21. “Former diplomat David Livingstone opines that Kevin Rudd will not be departing the Australian Embassy in Washington if Trump wins the election.
    There’s likely to be an Australian election before then.
    If Dutton doesn’t recall Rudd, it would be a huge betrayal of his voters, imo.
    What has Rudd achieved as Ambassador?
    Unlikely to be any more than what he achieved as PM.

  22. gollsays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 4:18 am
    The Matildas appear a little “underwhelming” in the first half versus Germany.
    _____________________
    Not quite as good as what they think they are.

  23. I see a certain someone is defending the Murdoch hanger ons… man, I miss when Labor hated Murdoch as opposed to thinking if they kowtow to him/the family they will be treated well.

  24. Badthinker @ #29 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 8:53 am

    “Former diplomat David Livingstone opines that Kevin Rudd will not be departing the Australian Embassy in Washington if Trump wins the election.
    There’s likely to be an Australian election before then.
    If Dutton doesn’t recall Rudd, it would be a huge betrayal of his voters, imo.
    What has Rudd achieved as Ambassador?
    Unlikely to be any more than what he achieved as PM.

    And when is the early election going to be now, BT? 😆

  25. In Defence the conference in Perth was significant not for the very little that was said, but for who showed up. If like me you conclude that defence acquisition decisions these days are made entirely on the basis of relationships and politics and not technical capability or costs, this matters a lot.

    The chief of staff of the Japan MSDF Admiral Akira Saito spoke on a panel of AUKUS chiefs. What does he have to do with nuclear submarines? Nothing.

    But if Australia was to select the Japanese Mogami Class frigate for its General Purpose Frigate option, this makes sense. Whilst in Perth Saito could drop by Henderson and check out the build site.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-25/aukus-project-will-be-slow-expensive-and-suffer-setbacks/104144054

    If so, this is a defence decision I am not criticising. Japan is a cost effective and quick builder of high quality ships. They would be a good partner to work with the WA Henderson shipyard and get them up to speed on building larger steel hulled warships. Happily, the Mogami is also one of the two best designs being considered.

    I won’t bother with the statements on AUKUS SSNs, which sounded like they came straight out of the ADF media machine.

  26. “Oh, you know that do you? Were you there? Or are you just jealous you weren’t invited? ”

    @C@tmomma

    Albo was there and yes it makes my skin crawl that he attended. Peter Dutton was there but it makes sense with him attending. Dutton wouldn’t be a chance without Newscorps propaganda. Same goes for Tony Abbott.

  27. Murdoch is a convenient scapegoat for Labor’s low information Rusties.
    It’s been said any publicity is good publicity, Murdoch has given Labor a tremendous amount of free publicity over 7 decades now.
    I remember him and Packer called before a Senate Inquiry.
    Packer was his usual self, Murdoch was asked “What are your politics?” by a Senator and he replied “You’d be surprised.”

  28. BT

    “ There’s likely to be an Australian election before then.”

    This is as plausible as the false statements you made last night about Linda Trip, which William had to pull you up on. Why do you lie? Is it fun for you?

    Have a good day all.

  29. Labor federally has done it to themselves scapegoating the media that is reporting on this slow motion train wreck is shooting the messager.

    Lookee here a Daniel Andrews has said he cannot support a two state solution while Hamas is in power.

    Nice expensive pearls a common touch by outgoing aboriginal affairs Minister yesterday.

  30. Kevin Rudd’s diplomacy had a material impact on the release of Julian Assange.

    That might be good or bad, depending on your point of view about Assange, I guess.

  31. ‘Alpha Zero says:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 7:33 am

    Leadersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 6:27 am
    Entropy:”Which then has a positive feedback effect increasing atmospheric temperature further.”

    Entropy, I was wondering about all the feedback loops that occur as the atmosphere warms, but I have yet to come across one that is negative. ALL the feedback loops that I am aware of are positive.

    Give me hope, is there any feedback mechanism that you are aware of that is negative?’
    ———————-
    There is one potential option, I believe: ground planes. Avoiding the CO2 emissions is one thing. Eliminating con trails is the other. But shush! The tourism industry, one of the most destructive industries on the planet, gets a free pass from reality.

    https://iee.psu.edu/news/podcast/growing-impact-contrails-and-climate-change

  32. Dutts told the troops to be ready for a September Election, I see Reynolds v Higgins is set down for 6 weeks from August 2, the August sitting starts 10 days later.
    I think Albo is more likely to bite the bullet earlier than later.

  33. https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/billionaire-anthony-pratt-hires-old-rivals-scott-morrison-and-dan-andrews-20240724-p5jw8l.html

    Billionaire Anthony Pratt hires old rivals Scott Morrison and Dan Andrews

    But definitely not a two-for-one deal, judging by the fees, which one source said was in the region of $100,000. Each.

    Man, i wonder why you would hire 2 polies with extensive connections… hmmmm, just another example of the revolving doors that are aussie politics

  34. Socrates:
    This is as plausible as the false statements you made last night about Linda Trip, …
    The Linda Tripp who [illegally] recorded Monica Lewinsky’s phone conversations detailing her affair with [President] Bill Clinton?
    I’m kinda surprised you care about her reputation.

  35. Pied Piper
    (Apologies for “Middle East” posting.)
    If there was a genuine two-state solution, then it is likely Hamas would not be so popular.
    Or if a “democratic” one-state solution.
    Tyranny creates rebellion. See Ireland, South Africa apartheid and many others.

  36. I’m not surprised that relatively few people named government policies that made them financially better off. Firstly, many non-Labor voters would be reluctant to admit that Labor did anything to benefit them personally. Secondly, the tax cuts and energy rebates were not direct cash-in-hand payments to people on 1 July but are starting to be paid indirectly via take home wages or when power bills arrive. Many non-wage earners will only notice a change to tax when they do their tax return next year.

    I’ve just paid our quarterly electricity, gas and water bills and there was no mention of any $300 rebate. It will take some time for bills to reflect the rebate.

  37. “Billionaire Anthony Pratt hires old rivals Scott Morrison and Dan Andrews.”

    it was perhaps not surprising but, nevertheless, disappointing to see Dan rushing to get his snout in the trough. I guess it just confirms that people like Dan are members of a political class on the make rather than the actual servants of the people which they claim to be when in office. The trip to the trough in the political afterlife could well be payback for a job well done that voters do not know about.

  38. Man, imagine how easy governing would be if people just died quietly… good thing we can trust our government to always listen… by salami slicing protest laws

  39. ”If Dutton doesn’t recall Rudd, it would be a huge betrayal of his voters, imo.”

    Few voters know or care who Australia’s ambassador to the USA is, or to anywhere else for that matter, least of all the low-information voters the Coalition is chasing.

  40. Player One @ #46 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 9:41 am

    They should just die quietly, right?

    But on a serious ethical note in a worst case scenario I have often wondered how Australia should act if massive climate migration becomes the norm.

    Let’s say the Himalayan glaciers melt and 2 billion people’s drinking and agricultural water effectively ceases to be available. Do we help as many migrants as possible move here with the understanding it is not going to be very comfortable for anyone (an understatement of course), or do we put up a steal ring (which if we used game theory would probably result in our navy sinking boats). I don’t know but I’d want our policy thinkers to start, well you know, thinking.

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