YouGov, which for a while was reporting every three weeks, returns from a break with its first federal poll in seven weeks (though not yet on their website), showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred compared with 50-50 last time. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation down one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 52%, while Peter Dutton more than recovers after a slump last time, gaining four on approval to 42% and falling five on disapproval to 46%. Albanese holds a 45-37 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 47-36.
The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off, with only 10% nominating the tax cuts that recently took effect, followed by 7% for energy rebates. It was conducted a little over a week ago, from July 12 to 17, from a sample of 1528.
I must congratulation Badthinker for his triumph in setting the agenda today.
He hooked whole schools of Bludgerfish into talking about something bad about Labor.
10/10.
It is funny.
What isnt funny is sliding on it when there isn’t enough water. Or worse, sliding on a turf that is bound by sand instead of water. I still have no feeling on the skin below one knee – 25 years after consistently removing the skin on it. I was very happy when we stopped playing on any sand turfs.
Wish there was a #remindme feature on here like reddit.
My predictions:
– The election will be in 2025
– Labor will win the election
– Albo will be the leader at the election, and will step down mid term. Chalmers likely the successor
– All Teal seats will be retained
– 2021 will be a highwater mark for the Greens, they will not be increasing their vote
The Olympics are bad for global warming because they encourage CO2 emissions-based travel. Stupendous numbers of people fly there.
They are bad for peace between nations.
They are good for the drug trade.
They are bad because they take stupendous amounts of funding from community level sport and wellness programs.
They are bad because they are used as a vehicle to encourage the insane consumerism that is destroying the planet.
They are bad because they grow competitive nationalism.
My suggestion for anyone who wants to get a real insight into the Olympics: watch the specific feed for another country in another language.
I try not to listen to Dutton. He is a prick.
It wouldnt have been hard to have a nuclear energy policy that was responsible AND wedged the ALP. But he chose to be a complete f wit about it – playing, again, to the fears about the transition away from fossil fuels. Trying to wreck the transition and renewable rollout and spend shiteloads of public money in the process. It really takes a special kind of C to be doing that.
Sorry WB. But sometimes it just has to be said.
TK
+1
BW, wrt Olympics, yep. IMO, too many people going. Certainly too many media peeps, but also too many support staff, and also too many athletes. Do we really need a 100m and 200m Butterfly? And…. who cares how fast you can swim backwards?
I’d get rid of all team sports too. Hard call, I know.
The Games need to get to net zero. They are trying. But without proper regulation and transparency of offsets and without tackling international travel, they arent being serious enough. FWIW, I dont mind that they rely heavily on offsets while in transition, offsets can deliver much needed funds to good projects – but they do need to be real offsets.
IMO, restricting it to only local spectators would be a grand idea.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Global warming is inflationary.
It alters the base.
In my experience global warming has been deflationary. It has destroyed production, incomes, jobs, investment and trade. This will become more pronounced and more pervasive. It’s already irrevocable.
Global warming will force contraction in the economy. That is, incomes – wages and profits – will be reduced across the total economy. Disruptions to supply and the extension/embedding of monopolistic power will also force prices up, further diminishing real incomes. So we will see intense and prolonged ‘stagflation’ …rising prices and falling employment and incomes.
We have experienced 400 years of mostly continuous population-wide rising real wages. We are very highly likely to experience several hundred years – perhaps a thousand years or more – of persistently declining real wages across the wider human population.
This will be driven by what is nothing other than pollution/contamination – pollution of the globe’s terrestrial, marine, aquatic and atmospheric reserves – and by destruction of geo- and bio-systems that help sustain the eco-stability on which the human economy depends.
Any politician who works for the fossil fuel vampires to the detriment of society is a C.
TK
Rubbish! The introduction of AFLX, particularly WAFLX is what is needed to bring relevance to the olympics.
Yeah Olympics are bad, but hey I’ll vote for fossil fuel subsidies and tax breaks.
Pfft…
The political problem will be managing societies in which real per capita incomes are in prolonged and irreversible decline.
‘Stooge says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Global warming is inflationary.
It alters the base.
In my experience global warming has been deflationary….’
———————————-
I know that it is a trend thing and picking a moment in time does not necessarily make a lot of sense.
But if Global Warming is deflationary why is most of the world fighting inflation… except for maybe China which is significant.
Stoogesays:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Global warming is inflationary.
It alters the base.
In my experience global warming has been deflationary. It has destroyed production, incomes, jobs, investment and trade. This will become more pronounced and more pervasive. It’s already irrevocable.
Global warming will force contraction in the economy. That is, incomes – wages and profits – will be reduced across the total economy. Disruptions to supply and the extension/embedding of monopolistic power will also force prices up, further diminishing real incomes. So we will see intense and prolonged ‘stagflation’ …rising prices and falling employment and incomes.
We have experienced 400 years of mostly continuous population-wide rising real wages. We are very highly likely to experience several hundred years – perhaps a thousand years or more – of persistently declining real wages across the wider human population.
This will be driven by what is nothing other than pollution/contamination – pollution of the globe’s terrestrial, marine, aquatic and atmospheric reserves – and by destruction of geo- and bio-systems that help sustain the eco-stability on which the human economy depends.
===================================================
If less is being produced and it costs more to produce, that is inflationary. As inflation is determined by the CPI. If the items making up that CPI index become more expensive and harder to produce. They will become more expensive. As scarcity is inflationary in my opinion.
Something i suspect Lars will be very happy to hear. As global warming has the potential to produce stagflation. Though i don’t think it will do so in the next few years. Though it is certainly a very real economic concern of eventuating, sometime in the next few decades though.
Integrity needs to go to a Badthinker workshop to see how it is done by a real pro.
Yeh honestly its amusing how certain posters will request the banning of anything and everything related to emissions.. without actually going after enabling political parties.
Curious that…
Oakeshott Country @ #709 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 12:23 pm
LFL + NFL?
Stooge @ #711 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 12:25 pm
There is a solution to that.
I agree that the introduction of LFL would make the Olympics a much more serious event.
For the uninitiated:
https://youtu.be/w6uOlbE-pMM?si=MpGVcyQ-wBUcIhgq
I think the world is waking up to the right wing loons. The Brits gave the Tories a well deserved flogging because of their gross incompetence. The Yanks now have a candidate that gives 50% of the electorate hope, that is female voters. Those females have many male supporters so hence the MAGA panic.
Here the usual suspects try to plant the idea that the PM is on the way out and his party with him. They try to give Nuclear Dutton and his corrupt National offsider some chance of victory. Once the campaign begins expect a two pronged attack on the conservatives, reminders of the Morrison disaster with emphasis on ALP achievements. Here, women will be just as suspicious of religious influence on right wingers as they are in the US. Expect little change in the number of ALP seats coupled with a surge in support for the Teals in existing Liberal seats. At least two in WA are being targeted.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:55 pm
‘Stooge says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Global warming is inflationary.
It alters the base.
In my experience global warming has been deflationary….’
———————————-
I know that it is a trend thing and picking a moment in time does not necessarily make a lot of sense.
But if Global Warming is deflationary why is most of the world fighting inflation… except for maybe China which is significant.
Inflationary pressure – rising prices – reflects 4 things: continued adjustments to supply/production chains in the post-endemic period; profoundly entrenched monopolistic pricing power in the digital sectors; swollen fiscal transfers during the pandemic from the public to private sectors, which have yet to be rebalanced; the ongoing effects of war in Ukraine.
The immediate corollary of rising general prices is the attrition of real wages. Declines in real wages will soon enough result in declining consumption, production and employment. This is happening now and is reverberating politically.
The meta trend is for destruction of the environment. The economic effects of this destruction have been and will continue to be destruction of production, jobs, investment, income (wages and profits) and opportunity.
Lordbainsays:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:57 pm
Yeh honestly its amusing how certain posters will request the banning of anything and everything related to emissions.. without actually going after enabling political parties.
Curious that…
==================================================
By starting a flame war with BW. You’ll be stopping BT from setting the agenda on this thread. Something that BW very much wants to do. I believe you two could be in cahoots?
Granny Anny says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 1:03 pm
I think the world is waking up to the right wing loons. The Brits gave the Tories a well deserved flogging because of their gross incompetence.
In the UK election Labour’s vote was essentially unchanged. What happened was the Reactionary Vote was deeply split by a White-Nationalist-Xenophobic schism. If the split in Reactionary opinion heals then Labour will lose as easily as they just won.
The UK election effectively moved the pendulum to the Right. It is a quirk of the electoral system that Labour benefited from this. If the Rightward/neo-fascist trend continues in the UK then Labour could easily experience further attrition of its already very poor 33% vote share.
In the US the Democratic plurality is actually in better overall shape than is its social Democrat counterpart in the UK, where the aristocratic socio-political order continues to linger.
Madhouse @ 12:33
ALP majority or minority government?
Yeah, but they quickly fall asleep again.
Forgetful bunch we are, easily marketed to.
Entropy, you truly are the peacemaker. It is true that me and BW likely share a similar level of disdain for Bt style posters.
It’s just a shame BW is often stark raving mad, and often doesn’t know that criticisms of a political party can be provided as feedback for improvement.
For example, when I say Labor is indepted to gambling, fossil fuel, arms and other questionable interests, I say it because I believe these are all detrimental to society, and that a labor party with such close ties to these industries is a negative for us all.
bw however takes any criticism as an attack,before launching into bizarre listicles that ignore fundamental issues.
Case in point; tourism versus fossil fuel involvement in governments. One is bad, the other is… an unfair talking point
Entropy why don’t u post on some of ur hlr favourite themes?
It could be a unifying factor in this winter of discontent here on pb?
But pls don’t mention Bob Collins – c@t has provided clear instructions for you on that score.
Putting this here instead of the US thread. Apologies but it is a very good and balanced (thanks to Brooks) assessment of Harris ascending to presumptive Dem Candidate so for just this one, I chose the main thread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNQXv9LPzuM&t=501s
Entropy says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:56 pm
… less is being produced and it costs more to produce, that is inflationary. As inflation is determined by the CPI. If the items making up that CPI index become more expensive and harder to produce. They will become more expensive. As scarcity is inflationary in my opinion.
There are certainly economies of scale, meaning marginal production costs fall as scale increases. But this does not mean that declines on costs are reflected in declines in selling prices. Competition forces relative declines in prices. However, the economy has become very highly and extensively monopolised. So there is a lot less downward pressure on prices, regardless of marginal production costs.
The CPI does not cause (determine) inflation. It is a way of measuring some prices. Price levels reflect the interaction of demand and supply in a context of choice/variety. Demand is driven in the aggregate by incomes, and in particular by disposable incomes. In an economy in which incomes circulate, production/employment not only create supply they also generate disposable income. So changes in output influence demand for output…and vice versa.
In a secular framework, what matters are technologies, investment, employment and real incomes.
C@tmomma
“ Also, the Holy Roman Church.
But, we also had German at our school. So the historical precedent for that, as a way of tying it to the syllabus, is?”
—————
Your anti-papism is so 1950’s.
All educated Europeans learnt Ancient Greek and Latin even the Protestants . It was called a “classical education”.
Maybe, if it was restored people might learn to be more rational.
Defeating Trump is necessary but insufficient. The MAGAs in the lower house and the unrepresentative Senate must also be voted out.
Boerwar @ #713 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 12:55 pm
That would be because most of the world is not seriously fighting global warming yet … except for maybe China which is significant.
P1, we are not allowed to say positive things about China remember. We need to save that praise for the US who is… not doing much about climate change (and yes yes Trump would be worse then Biden, but the “dont mind me the other guy is worse” tactic is very old these days…)
Oakeshott Country @ #719 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 1:01 pm
I remember scraping the palm of my hand along the surface at indoor cricket. That was a special kind of pain. Imagine wearing a g-string and scraping your cheeks 😬
The world of synthetic grass has come a long way if the LFL ladies can play like that. Bare skin on astro-turf was dreadful. That was why they always watered field hockey pitches.
Some serious tackling there too. I half expect it to involve pillow fighting.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-28/act-labor-conference-vote-recognise-state-of-palestine/104151062
ACT Labor conference delegates vote to recognise state of Palestine
“The Labor Friends of Palestine put forward a motion calling on the federal government to immediately recognise a Palestinian state.
Amendments to the motion were voted down and it passed making it the first of its kind in the country.
“ACT Labor strongly supports the immediate recognition of the state of Palestine and condemns the operation of an Apartheid system in Israel,” the motion read. ”
Good on the ACT Labor party… makes me wonder why the Federal party cant do the same :/
Also will be curious to see how the appointed Jewish envoy will react…
‘Stooge says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 1:05 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:55 pm
‘Stooge says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Global warming is inflationary.
It alters the base.
In my experience global warming has been deflationary….’
———————————-
I know that it is a trend thing and picking a moment in time does not necessarily make a lot of sense.
But if Global Warming is deflationary why is most of the world fighting inflation… except for maybe China which is significant.
Inflationary pressure – rising prices – reflects 4 things: continued adjustments to supply/production chains in the post-endemic period; profoundly entrenched monopolistic pricing power in the digital sectors; swollen fiscal transfers during the pandemic from the public to private sectors, which have yet to be rebalanced; the ongoing effects of war in Ukraine.
The immediate corollary of rising general prices is the attrition of real wages. Declines in real wages will soon enough result in declining consumption, production and employment. This is happening now and is reverberating politically.
The meta trend is for destruction of the environment. The economic effects of this destruction have been and will continue to be destruction of production, jobs, investment, income (wages and profits) and opportunity.’
========================
Yet… on a global scale:
There has never been greater production. There have never been more jobs. There has never been greater investment. There has never been greater income.
Aqua
The LFL (I don’t think it exists anymore) faced claims of sexism but its owner, a man of course, said wtte “have you seen what they wear in beach volleyball?”
Gravely Concerned Inc.
https://theshot.net.au/news/general-news/gravely-concerned-inc/
Dont worry Sohar, ACT Labor came out with the following;
“ACT Labor strongly supports the immediate recognition of the state of Palestine and condemns the operation of an Apartheid system in Israel,” the motion read. ”
I will be curious to see why this should not be replicated by the Feds…
The destruction of the environment that will result from global warming will drive destruction of real wages. This will manifest as disruptions to prices, to nominal incomes, to jobs, to other indirect contributions to welfare (social incomes, health and social spending, education investment) and to production in general.
Income distribution is skewed in favour of the owners of the means of production, distribution and exchange. Likewise, the income/wealth losses associated with environmental dislocation will be skewed away from these owners. Therefore, we can certainly say that global warming is a profoundly important issue in social and economic justice….which is also why Reactionaries have so little interest in preventing climate change.
“ Of course there will be no “move” on Albo. It will be a “retirement”.
I have said by sept 2032 – see how it goes.”
______
Fixed that for you L’arse. You’re welcome.
In the meantime, have a bex and lay down: it’s going to be a long wait for your wet dream to come to fruition: stop pestering the board with your endless dire predictions of Labor doom. We got the message – you have been gaslighting Albo since 2019. Peak Albo was meant to be October 2021, then March 2022, then he was leading Labor into an electoral wilderness in May 2022. … and so on and so forth. I guess you’ll be right … one day … but not because of any of the things that your ‘astute commentary’ are actually correct … but because even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Ah me old China.
Always up for a lark….
Sure. It poisoned its rivers. Sent massive amounts of raw sewage into its coastal waters. Ensured that breathing was the equivalent of smoking a couple of packs a day. Put colossal amounts of chemicals into the soil and thence into the food chain. Started melting away its summer glacial meltwater. And sent its water tables plunging. Not forgetting burning most of the world’s coal.
What China did a bit differently from the rest of the world is crank stupendous amounts of borrowings building stupendous numbers of, and far too many of, dwellings. Add monstrous amounts of bridges to nowhere. All on the never never.
All that was inflationary. Until it wasn’t.
At the tail end of the spending binge it started destroying the main entrepreneurs. And it basically frightened off foreign investment. Bigly.
It is cranking up to sell cheap stuff to the rest of the world. But much of the rest of the world is getting wise to the mercantilist cheats employed by China Inc… big fight ahead.
Wages are going down. Jobs are going down. Consumption is down.
Which is why China is doing deflationary.
Rakalisays:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 1:36 pm
C@tmomma
“ Also, the Holy Roman Church.
But, we also had German at our school. So the historical precedent for that, as a way of tying it to the syllabus, is?”
—————
Your anti-papism is so 1950’s.
All educated Europeans learnt Ancient Greek and Latin even the Protestants . It was called a “classical education”.
Maybe, if it was restored people might learn to be more rational.
=====================================================
How does that work? Certainly i never considered the Roman Empire and the earlier city states of Greece to be a beacon of rationality.
Though i guess studying the Peloponnesian War could give one a better understanding of stupidity. Whether that will also make one more rational, i don’t know.
If O’Neil gets housing, here do people think Julie Collins will end up?
Listen I know it’s a bit too early for predictions but I think it’s either going to be a labor majority or minority like the poles aren’t bad for labour it’s just mah I mean the polls were always gonna tighten they weren’t gonna stay 56 to 44 forever I’m just surprised that Labor still have a lead for this long in the thing is people say well Peter Dalton’s a good opposition leader well Tony was a good opposition leader and he got well hated real quick
Oakeshott Country @ #737 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 1:55 pm
I remember thinking when it started “how do they get away with that” 🙂
I probably tuned in once or twice but it was hard to take it seriously. Haven’t seen any signs of it in recent times but it’s not like I’ve been actively seeking it out either.
Honestly 😇
Will Heshbollah succeed in its apparent desire to get Lebanon invaded by Israel?
Entropy, it is a common narrative that Western Civilization is based on the works of the Greeks and the Romans; of course, its hilariously wrong. For starters, the Greeks and Romans would have balked at the idea of being collected in discussion with the barbarians of the West, as they saw themselves more part of the civilised world to the East. But then I dont have nearly enough time to point out the issues with the Western Civilization historical narrative…
Speaking of Lebanon, in the weeks immediately after October 7 the Australian Government was urging around 15,000 Australians to leave Lebanon ASAP.
This seems to have gone off the boil – at least in public. Yet the war temperature in that neck of the woods has not been higher since Oct 7 than it is now.