YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.

YouGov, which for a while was reporting every three weeks, returns from a break with its first federal poll in seven weeks (though not yet on their website), showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred compared with 50-50 last time. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation down one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 52%, while Peter Dutton more than recovers after a slump last time, gaining four on approval to 42% and falling five on disapproval to 46%. Albanese holds a 45-37 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 47-36.

The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off, with only 10% nominating the tax cuts that recently took effect, followed by 7% for energy rebates. It was conducted a little over a week ago, from July 12 to 17, from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,013 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Labor should re-assess their treatment of those living under ‘a great deal of financial stress’.

    #Redbridge

    @Rex Douglas

    Rex it didn’t stop you bagging Labor for lifting the tax rate for people with superannuation balances above $3 million. These were people who were clearly not under financial stress. You suggested Labor had cost themselves the election over issue. You have never really cared about the poor or the working class. You only pretend to when it’s a swipe against Labor.

    You standing shoulder to shoulder with Taylormade using the CFMEU’s problems to bag unions in general is further evidence of that.

  2. A_E and Griff have explained Labor’s approach to policy implemention based on incrementalism and centrism and why they are doing it, better than anyone on PB that I have seen in a long time. That Lordbain can’t see that and repeats the same bloody points day in and day out while criticising BW at the same time, is the height of hypocricy.

  3. Love a bit of fake left v real left action on pollbludger.
    Even got the wanka’s now talking about a republic like that’s important. In the meantime, labors vote trends below 30%, and the Libs quietly top 40%. Right wingers can have the night off, watching the leftards fight over purity.
    Keep it up losers. Nice watching from the sidelines.
    Even better hearing useless Albo booed, in woke Canberra of all places.

  4. Disappointed that Plibersek hasn’t been rewarded in the reshuffle. I think this is a mistake.

    Also a mistake is keeping Burke as Leader of the House while also taking the immigration portfolio. He’s gonna burn out.

  5. Ven, buddy, you might need to learn the definition of hypocrisy.

    Hypocrisy would be, say, claiming to be a progressive party and then running on centrist/ centre right policies.

  6. Albo booed. Love it. Let’s go Brandon.
    Hope it ends up on YouTube, like the Australian tennis open booing this year. Great to watch and listen to.

  7. Centre @ #897 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 6:38 pm

    Does Trump seriously want to lose?

    The last time people will ever need to vote? WTF

    Trump has a worried look as far as I’m concerned.

    I’m switching, you’re allowed, I think Kamala has his measure!

    The OG Centre was never this much of a weathervane!

    Trump’s public pronouncements have always signalled what he intends to do in office: remove the 2 term rule for office holders, expand the Supreme Court numbers, set the DOJ onto his political (and likely other) opponents, kill his multiple charges and many others.

  8. There is a long and (not so) venerable tradition of Australian Prime Ministers being booed at sporting fixtures.


  9. Tricotsays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 5:20 pm
    Rex….If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

    If wishes were horses and thoughts get wings, human being will lose their minds and living becomes ఆ hell.

  10. Alabama you’re very polite person and I wouldn’t count your chickens yet soon where 10 months away from election anything could happen hell Anthony might fight back but it’s funny how you seem to ignore the news poll and the yougov poll

  11. I have a potentially brilliant idea
    Liberal, National parties and PHON should amalgamate the form the Conservative Party of Australia
    Guarantee Pauline a cabinet ministry and two Senators a minor portfolio each
    No more preference leakage!

  12. I am glad the average citizen feels comfortable to boo the PM… god forbid we turn into the worship culture of the US…

  13. Okay Alabama how do you know trump’s gonna win this one or you’re just a troll also be a bit more polite

  14. Quentin – wasn’t news poll 39% for the lnp recently. You gov was 38%, freshwater had 40% and wasn’t there another poll with 39.5%. How has your party gone this month. What primary figures do you like. Labor on 30%, perhaps 29% Enjoy that. Where labor belongs

  15. Not sure where this “Labor moved right” thing has come from, considering the party had White Australia Policy on the national platform in the first federal elections.

    Besides, they seem to be pursuing a top down re-industrialization policy (Future made in Australia), which is a reversal on the de-industrialization starting with Whitlam’s tariff reductions. I’d dare say that this is probably the most left leaning federal Labor government since Chifley.

  16. Reshuffle.
    Bill shorten left alone. Don’t upset Brutus.
    Jason Clare. Remaining or going.
    Clare O’Neill- bye bye
    Giles – pity, doing such a great job for the right.
    Burney – couldn’t have asked for a better minister to lead the lemon voice project. Yet she still blew it.

  17. No one talking about climate change rubbish any more. Thank fuck, It’s all rubbish. Glad that issue is solved.

  18. Hey Alabama if you can you calling people lefttard I can call you righttard that’s not even an you want to be a mean person I can be meaner because I can tell you that if Peter Dalton does get in he’s it’s probably not going to be around for a long timeand a lot of people hating him opposition lead is easy it’s being prime minister’s hard


  19. Centresays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 6:38 pm
    Does Trump seriously want to lose?

    The last time people will ever need to vote? WTF

    Trump has a worried look as far as I’m concerned.

    I’m switching, you’re allowed, I think Kamala has his measure!

    Eu tu Centre! 🙂

  20. But when it happens in Canberra Steve777, It’s even better. Their all labor voters in the act, but maybe there were a couple of thousand Greens at the stadium.

  21. https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/8710219/barnaby-joyce-rallies-crowd-to-get-rid-of-wind-turds-in-rare-illawarra-visit/?cs=300#comments

    From the Illawarra Mercury, the idiots gather on the foreshores of Lake Illawarra.

    Fair Dinkum, when you have Barnaby, Constance and Graig Kelly as your argument it is a losing one!

    Sorry it may be paywalled so I’ll put some transcripts below.

    “Barnaby Joyce has paid a rare visit to the Illawarra to decry offshore wind turbines, firing up in front of a crowd to “get rid of these wind turds” by not voting for Labor.
    ================================================================

    “The reason I’m down here is because I’ve been fighting against these swindle factories,” he said.

    The former deputy prime minister was one of several speakers at the anti-wind farm rally held at Reddall Reserve in Lake Illawarra on Sunday, organised by Responsible Future Illawarra.”
    ===================================================================
    “Strong gusts of up to 40kmh didn’t deter hundreds from pulling up chairs, holding placards emblazoned with slogans like “This will not blow over” and “Where’s Stephen Jones?”.

    Mr Joyce urged people to support nuclear power and labelled wind farms an “environmental catastrophe”. He went on to liken wind farms to “a big dirty dog turd in the middle of your yard” that would impact the view of the coastline.

    “Maybe that’s what they are, maybe they’re wind turds,” Mr Joyce said.

    “When you get to the top of Bulli Pass, you’ll look down and see all the wind turds … Look at them all just rotting out there in the salt water.”
    “Mr Joyce told the crowd “your greatest weapon” in opposing the turbines is “to turn up in numbers” in Canberra and Sydney.

    “And the bullet you have is that little piece of paper, and it goes in that magazine called the voting box, and it’s coming up,” he said.

    “Get ready to load that magazine.

    “Go goodbye Chris, goodbye Stephen, goodbye Albo. And when they see that, they’ll let you in their office for a meeting.”
    ==========================================================

    And a voice of reason:

    “Whitlam MP Stephen Jones said these remarks, two weeks after the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump, were extraordinary.

    “It’s outrageous that a former deputy prime minister thinks it’s alright to travel the country, using violent language and encouraging that sort of talk,” Mr Jones told the Mercury.

    “Right around the world we’ve seen where that leads to and it’s not a part of the Australian political culture, and we don’t want it to be.”
    ==================================================
    Bunch of morons and dumbos, the lot of them!

  22. peter dutton you know the guy who isn’t as popular as Anthony Albanese what do you think’s gonna happen when LNP and in a screw up again just saying it opposition leader is easy then being prime minister

  23. I agree with you Quentin or at least ur assumption.

    Should Dutton become PM (which I dont think will happen) he wont last 3 years either. He will be our 7th failed PM since Howard in that eventuality.

  24. Labor and the Greens squabbling about rubbish, eating themselves to pieces. No policies which resonate, no idea. But go the Greens. Enemy’s enemy is the friend.
    Now we have the usual useless idiots thinking a republic might be a good distraction.
    Workers will have to put an end to that again.
    The workers united will never be defeated. That’ll do.

  25. Albo’s fightin’ days are over.
    He’s a statesman now.
    Get used to it.
    He’s looking forward to putting his feet up after the next election.
    Job done.
    Destiny realized.
    Over.
    And out.

  26. Alabama what policies have the have the LNP that isn’t cultural war stuff seriously name me stuff that can actually make them look good that’s a problem election is 10 months away anything can happen he goes crazy on the cultural war people ain’t gonna vote for him they need policies that are saying reasonable not nuclear not making them teach Australian history so cool and we’ve done nothing bad that’s pro worker and that doesn’t involve selling our assets

  27. Mr Bowe

    I think you are obsessive about deleting my comments, even if they are not personal. Compared to the highly offensive crap that you are happy to allow through I am astonished.

    This time I’m really out. It’s your site but I’m sick of your ridiculous inconsistency.

  28. “peter dutton you know the guy who isn’t as popular as Anthony Albanese what do you think’s gonna happen when LNP and in a screw up again just saying it opposition leader is easy then being prime minister”

    @Quentin Rountree

    Got that right. Remember when Tony Abbott as opposition leader was carrying on about Labor’s debt? By the time the Liberals finished in government they left a debt five times as much as Labor’s and pushed the national debt out to a trillion.

  29. I see that Price has a solution for a problem that does not exist: boarding school.
    We know it does not exist because there are no ongoing consequences of colonialism.

  30. Trillion dollar debt truck. Ah Morrison. He loved stunting the truck driver routine. He may be gone but his Ignoranti still infest the ranks of the Liberals.

  31. ALABAMA @ #928 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 7:53 pm

    Evening cat at 7.42pm.
    Be careful, you don’t want to get your posts deleted like last time do you. I saw a glimpse, and then they were gone.

    Do you mean if I call you a Rightard? Like you have called Labor supporters Leftards? That would be an interesting comparison to make if so. 😐

  32. Curious what Albo is up to?
    He doesn’t want to upset Bill, but yet Bill doesn’t have the numbers anyway. Giles was a factional supporter, bet he won’t be now. Albo knows he’s not popular in Australia. It all sounds like “please be nice to me Bill.”
    End for Albo perhaps coming soon. He’s not liked.
    Interest rate hike should do the trick. Can’t manage finances, can’t manage the economy. Spend more time in QLD Albo. Only advice I can give.

  33. Lars, poor PVO will always regret where life took him… he was supposed to be a contender dammit, with his pal from WA as future PM… me thinks he is still sooking about his fall from grace 😉

  34. Mr Bowe

    I think you are obsessive about deleting my comments, even if they are not personal. Compared to the highly offensive crap that you are happy to allow through I am astonished.

    This time I’m really out. It’s your site but I’m sick of your ridiculous inconsistency.

    I’ve just deleted eleven comments, only one of which was yours. Please stay gone this time.

  35. “AE, I would say Hitler, Churchill, every tin pot dictator supported by the yanks during the cold war etc… but good try with your strawman, keep it up ”

    Straw man? You were the one that brought up ‘the capitalists’. If you meant tin pot dictators then you should have said so. i would have agreed. Indeed I agree that there are monsters who are also captains of industry. Hitler? Sure. No brainer. Churchill? Well at least he was constrained by democracy, although I probably despise him more than just about any tory politician in history. … but again … on the subject of straw men … just because there are monsters within many different structures in no way answers my critique of just how susceptible socialist institutes are prone to monsters.

  36. Yeah political nightwatchmen it’s easy to be opposition leader it’s harder to be prime Minister honestly Anthony Albanese isn’t doing too bad would I like him to do more yes but Peter problem is that he’s going to need policies that help everyone not just his people in I also think that Anthony Albanese didn’t really give a carp about the voice it was like oh we tried to do something for the indigenous people that’s how I felt it’s easy to do a referendum than to actually do something

  37. AE, i am going to make this real simple.

    You claim that socialist systems are prone to monsters.

    I point out that capitalist systems are also prone to monsters.

    You list a bunch of names of people who used socialist uprisings as a means to gain power and cause widespread death.

    I list a bunch of names of people who used capitalist systems (either dictatorships or democracies) to gain power, who are associated with massive death tolls.

    Maybe the lesson here is that any system can be corrupted?

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