YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.

YouGov, which for a while was reporting every three weeks, returns from a break with its first federal poll in seven weeks (though not yet on their website), showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred compared with 50-50 last time. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation down one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 52%, while Peter Dutton more than recovers after a slump last time, gaining four on approval to 42% and falling five on disapproval to 46%. Albanese holds a 45-37 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 47-36.

The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off, with only 10% nominating the tax cuts that recently took effect, followed by 7% for energy rebates. It was conducted a little over a week ago, from July 12 to 17, from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,013 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. That Leak cartoon is beyond ‘tasteless’. It is the full metal jacket of RWNJ spitefulness on display.

  2. Thanks BK . Wonder if that Australian made world first titanium heart was given to Peter Dutton
    -cold hard robotic – he’d be a perfect transplant match ☺

  3. MI, can confirm thats been a topic between the usual ANU and staffer/policy boffins in a few Canberra drinking holes.

    I would give you the inevitable answer, but I suspect you already can guess the end point

  4. Lordbain @ #53 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 9:58 am

    MI, can confirm thats been a topic between the usual ANU and staffer/policy buffins in a few Canberra drinking holes.

    I would give you the inevitable answer, but I suspect you already can guess the end point

    I do listen to the ANU security podcast, I’d like them to a worst case scenario episode.

  5. “ Wonder if that Australian made world first titanium heart was given to Peter Dutton
    -cold hard robotic – he’d be a perfect transplant match ☺”

    ________

    I doubt it: the titanium heart would reject Dutton. Only an artificial heart made out of a composite of spite, bigotry, anger and prejudice would be successfully inserted into his cold dead chest.

  6. The $300 elec rebate is coming through in four payments of $75.
    Latest email from my supplier (Aurora) says.

    “Further relief from the Commonwealth Government is on its way. In addition to the energy bill relief payment, you will also receive the first of four $75 payments from the Commonwealth Government which will be allocated to accounts from 31 July. All customers will receive a total of $300 this financial year. This payment will appear on your first bill after this date.”

  7. Editorialising from the Gaurniad:
    “What kind of leader do voters want in these chaotic times?
    After weeks of chaos on the campaign trail, the new Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has brought some voters new enthusiasm for the US presidential election. But will this early bump propel Harris to the White House? Progressive leaders around the world have countered the chaos of conservatives by projecting calm and by running sensible, risk averse campaigns.”

    “Progressive leaders around the world have countered the chaos of conservatives by projecting calm and by running sensible, risk averse campaigns” actually means, ‘adopting the virtually the same policies as the conservatives/right-wingers they replace, to appease the billionaires and oligarchs that control duopolies in the western world’.

  8. Sohar, its the Guardian; for as much as some here claim it to be bastion of leftist reporting, its centrist with a centre left spin at best.

    And agreed that the narrative of stable risk averse politicking from centre left parties is not how you combat the return of the fascist right, as exemplified by the French and (happy to eat my hat if im wrong here) the implosion of the Starmer government before the next UK election

  9. Cheap shots like trash talking Burney for wearing pearl ear rings is typical of you PP. Bottom dweller sniping is all you’ve got – how pathetic and irrelevant you are. Blessed be the fruit eh

  10. Mostly Interested @ #50 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 9:52 am

    Player One @ #46 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 9:41 am

    They should just die quietly, right?

    But on a serious ethical note in a worst case scenario I have often wondered how Australia should act if massive climate migration becomes the norm.

    Let’s say the Himalayan glaciers melt and 2 billion people’s drinking and agricultural water effectively ceases to be available. Do we help as many migrants as possible move here with the understanding it is not going to be very comfortable for anyone (an understatement of course), or do we put up a steal ring (which if we used game theory would probably result in our navy sinking boats). I don’t know but I’d want our policy thinkers to start, well you know, thinking.

    I’d suggest the first thing we should do is stop contributing to the problem.

  11. Player One @ #61 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 10:31 am

    Mostly Interested @ #50 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 9:52 am

    Player One @ #46 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 9:41 am

    They should just die quietly, right?

    But on a serious ethical note in a worst case scenario I have often wondered how Australia should act if massive climate migration becomes the norm.

    Let’s say the Himalayan glaciers melt and 2 billion people’s drinking and agricultural water effectively ceases to be available. Do we help as many migrants as possible move here with the understanding it is not going to be very comfortable for anyone (an understatement of course), or do we put up a steal ring (which if we used game theory would probably result in our navy sinking boats). I don’t know but I’d want our policy thinkers to start, well you know, thinking.

    I’d suggest the first thing we should do is stop contributing to the problem.

    Sure. But I want to focus on the stuff that’s probably already baked in for the next 2 centuries (minimum).

  12. Sohar

    Proudly reposted by Connolly Books in Dublin – “We got a bad review”. Love it.

    Thanks for this. Occasionally I stay in a cheap but cheerful pub in Temple Bar. I will look out for Connolly Books.

    As for a woman in Cavan who is recent enough in history to have”invented” copper wire, the poster is clearly delusional. Even talking about the use of copper wire for carrying electrical currents, we are talking about the early 1700s.

  13. Leadersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 6:27 am
    Entropy:”Which then has a positive feedback effect increasing atmospheric temperature further.”

    Entropy, I was wondering about all the feedback loops that occur as the atmosphere warms, but I have yet to come across one that is negative. ALL the feedback loops that I am aware of are positive.

    Give me hope, is there any feedback mechanism that you are aware of that is negative?
    ==================================================

    Human extinction would be a positive feedback loop (for the removal of CO2, so negative feedback in the context of your post). First it would stop more human caused CO2 entering the atmosphere. It would also promote recovery of worlds forests and other vegetation types. Which would then take more CO2 out of the atmosphere. Which would be the positive feedback section of this loop (for atmospheric CO2 removal) .

  14. Douglas and Milko @ #63 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 11:04 am

    Thanks for this. Occasionally I stay in a cheap but cheerful pub in Temple Bar. I will look out for Connolly Books.

    As for a woman in Cavan who is recent enough in history to have”invented” copper wire, the poster is clearly delusional. Even talking about the use of copper wire for carrying electrical currents, we are talking about the early 1700s.

    Speaking of copper wire, I’ve been enjoying this doco series.

    https://www.primevideo.com/detail/Shock-and-Awe-The-Story-of-Electricity/0GJ2D83MM2BLE192O5MZNB6SKP

  15. Mostly Interested @ #61 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 10:45 am

    Sure. But I want to focus on the stuff that’s probably already baked in for the next 2 centuries (minimum).

    Why? We can’t possibly fix the problem as fast as we are continuing to make it worse, so if we don’t stop doing that then what’s the point of band aid solutions?

    Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels is not only the most effective thing we could do now, it is also the easiest, fastest and cheapest.

  16. A_E

    That Leak cartoon is beyond ‘tasteless’. It is the full metal jacket of RWNJ spitefulness on display.

    Isn’t that cartoon nasty.

    I went this morning to a NAIDOC week smoking and dance ceremony at my grandson’s school, which has a high Aboriginal student population. It was a great event, with the highlight for me being the kids doing our national anthem in the local Sydney / Illawarra language, with clapping sticks. It would make a much better national anthem for us on the world stage. Although I think they may have left some verses out ….

    At the end, the principal talked about how much Linda Burney has done for the aboriginal community in Australia, and how when she resigned yesterday, she asked people to “keep the fire burning. He talked briefly about her poverty growing up, and hoped that some of the students there would in their turn go on to do great things. Or WTTE – he put it much better than I did.

    The Matt Golding cartoon is far more fitting:

  17. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 9:11 am
    Dutts told the troops to be ready for a September Election, I see Reynolds v Higgins is set down for 6 weeks from August 2, the August sitting starts 10 days later.
    I think Albo is more likely to bite the bullet earlier than later.
    ========================================================

    Nadia note this is how you do a successful prediction. It only took 2 days to be correct too:

    Entropysays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 10:11 pm
    nadia88says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:39 pm
    Entropysays:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:23 pm
    nadia88says:
    Wednesday, July 24, 2024 at 9:12 pm

    Forget the August election. I’m more interested how a pub built in 1886 got a flood mark from a 1841 flood? Followed by why does he believe the CFMEU didn’t exist in the year 2000? Plus how posts made after an election had any effect on that election?

    Though to be fair your statement that “Badthinker – you’re a good poster” is up their with those crazy statements too.
    ======================
    If you think so Entropy.
    Badthinker has a good knowledge of the 1983 Electoral Act, which is something I checked after a post of his a month or so ago. As for his other predictions – you can sort it out with him. Not my beef.
    Glad you’ve moved on from his Aug-3 Federal election prediction though. I gather we won’t hear about it again.
    ===============================================

    The smart money is on “Badthinker” to go with a September election date soon. My guess he will make that claim sometime within the next two weeks.

    Crazy stupid is a lot more predictable than crazy smart. Hence it is far easier to predict what Trump or Badthinker will do next than Elon Musk.

  18. I think copper wire refers to an Irish joke – Kerry people are dumb but Cavan people are very mean
    “How was copper wire invented? Two Cavan women fighting over a penny”
    “Did you hear about the Cavan paedophile? He asked the child to buy him a sweet”
    Etc etc.

  19. Blast from the past- gold plated former liberal Party NSW premier
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-loses-icac-court-challenge-20240311-p5fbfl.html

    Former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian has lost her court bid to overturn damning findings made against her by the state’s corruption watchdog.

    In a decision on Friday, a 2-1 majority of the NSW Court of Appeal dismissed her application for judicial review of the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s findings.

  20. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 9:22 am
    Socrates:
    This is as plausible as the false statements you made last night about Linda Trip, …
    The Linda Tripp who [illegally] recorded Monica Lewinsky’s phone conversations detailing her affair with [President] Bill Clinton?
    I’m kinda surprised you care about her reputation.
    ==================================================

    This is another lie and you know it. The post you put up last night has nothing to do with the topic you mentioned here. Instead your post was about a false slanderous allegations you made about the alleged conduct of LBJ when President in 1968. The post then went on to smear by association the USA racial Act of 1964. Which appears to be the real target of your made up smear against LBJ. Which suggest your motives in this were probably racist and you most likely harbour white supremacist type beliefs. Which would also explain why you continued to label anyone who supported the Voice as racist. As this is obviously a projection.

    “Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, July 25, 2024 at 8:21 pm
    Reminds me of Linda Tripp, she told Monica Lewinsky to go public in 1998.
    Anyway, Tripp was a White House intern in 1968, first day on the job she got into a lift with LBJ, who grabbed a nipple in his bony fingers and started twistin’.
    Until the lift stopped and the door opened.
    Then he walked out.
    But, hey, he signed the 1964 Civil Rights Act!”

  21. Rex, it should have been a slam dunk for the Democrats, and yet for “some reason” Harris and about half the dems fucked up the Netanyahu response

  22. Scott

    “Could Gladys Berejiklian losing her appeal for being found corrupt , be bad news for the federal lib/nats”
    —————————————————–
    It won’t change my opinion of them.

  23. Scottsays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 12:00 pm
    Could Gladys Berejiklian losing her appeal for being found corrupt , be bad news for the federal lib/nats
    =============================================

    The women who supposedly saved Australia, in the end couldn’t even save herself, from her own predilection for the corrupt Daryl.

    Quote: “If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas”

  24. @Sohar

    According to the comments the owner of the bookshop is the Communist party of Ireland, so I’m not sure that his appeal to the management will get him too far.

  25. UK cartoons and other miscellany

    Zapiro

    Peter Brookes

    Jonsey

    Peter Brookes

    Andy Davey

    Dave Brown

    Nick Anderson

    Matt

    Ben Jennings

    Christian Adams

    Garthtoons

    Guy Venables

    Kipper Williams

    Banx

    Martin Rowson

    Stokoe

    Ellis Rosen

    Mark Parisi

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

    “Don’t ask any questions. Just get int he car”.

    My mom lady is going to vote for @KamalaHarris. She's also going to drive elderly church ladies to the polls. So there! pic.twitter.com/eoeMqVJxJ6— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) July 24, 2024

    Tony Windsor

    Well done @LindaBurneyMP You have made a difference and have done it with grace and integrity.Rick would be very proud.My Best Wishes.— Tony Windsor (@TonyHWindsor) July 26, 2024

    ==================================
    The French Connection

    Chaunu
    “This deserves a medal!” [Paris is currently divided by security fences, and you need a pass for each district you want to visit.]

    Mougey
    The Olympics have already started for he Parisians. “Native Paris resident trying to get home”.

  26. Luigi Smith @ #56 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 10:15 am

    The $300 elec rebate is coming through in four payments of $75.

    Thanks for this. I just checked my Powershop account and it is $1075 in credit. I’m in Queensland so that is the combined total of the State and Federal ALP governments’ largesse.

    I didn’t get any notifiction from them, and one has to go looking to find the account balance.

  27. Lordbainsays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 11:51 am
    My heart weeps for Australia’s savior…
    ==============================================

    “Pity the country that breeds no hero. — No, pity the country that needs heroes”

  28. Entropy @ #85 Friday, July 26th, 2024 – 12:27 pm

    Lordbainsays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 11:51 am
    My heart weeps for Australia’s savior…
    ==============================================

    “Pity the country that breeds no hero. — No, pity the country that needs heroes”

    I bet Phil Coorey feels no shame for writing the hagiographic story about ‘Our Glad’ though. 😐

  29. Indeed Omar Comin’ the website confirms the bookshop was named after James Connolly the commandant of the communistic Irish Citizens Army during the Easter Rising. The site and window display is pro-Palestine and I think the complainant was lucky to escape with only hurt dignity.
    Hence the ironic, “we got a bad review!”

  30. The cartoons got scrambled. Here is the correct version
    Chaunu
    Cease Fire!

    Chaunu
    “This deserves a medal!” [Paris is currently divided by security fences, and you need a pass for each district you want to visit.]

    Mougey
    The Olympics have already started for he Parisians. “Native Paris resident trying to get home”.

  31. Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 12:32 pm
    Entropy ur still sulking over badthinkers hlr scoop yesterday ? Time to move on.
    ======================================================

    Racism and misogyny should always be called out where ever it surfaces. I don’t believe it is any coincidence that the strongest supporters of Dutton, also appear to be the most racist and misogynistic posters also.

    Quote: “Birds of a feather flock together”

  32. OC

    I think copper wire refers to an Irish joke – Kerry people are dumb but Cavan people are very mean
    “How was copper wire invented? Two Cavan women fighting over a penny”
    “Did you hear about the Cavan paedophile? He asked the child to buy him a sweet”
    Etc etc.

    Thanks. I did not know this.

  33. Two Labor stalwarts retired from Cabinet. One a white male the other a first nations female. Yet all the vitriol and nasty attacks from the right seem to be only reserved for one. Surprise, surprise, that is the female with the higher melanin index reading of the two. The only real question are these far more vitriolic attacks against her due to gender, race or both?

  34. Former President Donald Trump’s decision to exit the September debate against Vice President Kamala Harris was the topic of conversation on CNN, with one panelist even going so far as to call him a “scared little punk.” Abby Phillip, host of CNN’s “NewsNight,” began her show Thursday night with Harris goading Trump on the social media app X. “What happened to ‘any time, any place'” she quipped.
    Phillips teed up her panel asking for their reaction on Harris “calling his bluff.” Jane Coaston, a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times, led off the panel’s reaction with a shot at the former president. “You mean Donald Trump wants to back out of a commitment? Stunning news!” she said.

  35. Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 12:43 pm
    Entropy how many of the 60% who voted against the Voice do you consider to be racist ?
    ====================================================

    Badthinkers pasts claim was all 40% of those that voted for the voice were racist. That was only general claim, related to the voice, i raised on that issue. My claim against Badthinker was specific to him though.

    As far as your specific question goes. What is your estimate? If you wish to hear speculation on it. Shouldn’t yours be first off the rank?

  36. Entropysays:
    Friday, July 26, 2024 at 12:49 pm
    Two Labor stalwarts retired from Cabinet. One a white male the other a first nations female. Yet all the vitriol and nasty attacks from the right seem to be only reserved for one. Surprise, surprise, that is the female with the higher melanin index reading of the two. The only real question are these far more vitriolic attacks against her due to gender, race or both?
    _____________________
    One did an OK job. The other one was shithouse.
    Surely someone could have told her the Shaq stunt would go down like lead balloon. The Voice was doomed after that.

  37. The Matilda’s defence got exposed against the high ball cross big time.

    All is not lost though. Keep your chins up !

    10/10 for Stan sports though. No ads. Full replays and coverage.

  38. So, Littlefinger is staying.

    I think we all know why.

    Watch out for the anonymous backgrounding and undermining to increase in the media.

    Gotta drive the polling down to have a chance…

  39. Hello Entropy,

    I dont know what proportion of no voters were racist. Some presumably would be but a lot more would not have.

    Personally I voted yes and thought addressing indigenous disadvantage both practically and symbolically was fair enough.

    Burney seems a nice lady who has a lot of personal firsts to her credit and a degree of Bidenesque tragedy in her personal story but was out of her depth selling the Voice. To be fair Albo was woeful selling it and deserves the lions share of the criticism as PM who essentially made it his foremost priority for his term of office.

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