YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

A finding that nearly three-quarters of respondents could not name an Albanese government initiative that had made them better off takes the gloss off a slightly improved YouGov result for Labor.

YouGov, which for a while was reporting every three weeks, returns from a break with its first federal poll in seven weeks (though not yet on their website), showing Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred compared with 50-50 last time. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 13% and One Nation down one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 52%, while Peter Dutton more than recovers after a slump last time, gaining four on approval to 42% and falling five on disapproval to 46%. Albanese holds a 45-37 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 47-36.

The poll also offers the government the sobering finding that 73% were unable to name a government initiate that had made them financially better off, with only 10% nominating the tax cuts that recently took effect, followed by 7% for energy rebates. It was conducted a little over a week ago, from July 12 to 17, from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,013 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Quentin – thanks for being polite. I will too.
    Peter Dutton hasn’t done the hard yards to clean up the party.
    He’s still got Archer sitting in Tassie. She needs to go and join labor and a proper conservative put in her place. No point having them in the party if they’re going to cross the floor. Labor doesn’t have them, neither should the Libs.
    He was in Vic yesterday at a lib state conference, but the supporters hate him. The state branch is infected with woke libs, and Pesutto thinks like Labor.
    Dutton still has work to do. He’s close, but not good enough.

  2. Alabama ”But when it happens in Canberra Steve777, It’s even better. Their all labor voters in the act, but maybe there were a couple of thousand Greens at the stadium.”

    Maybe, but I think that Oakeshott was right, it was the Souths Jersey. For the True Fan, Team allegiance overrides politics.

    Anyway, enjoy.

  3. The Tokyo Olympics cost around 1.9 million tons of CO2 emissions.
    I am not sure whether they included the tourist travel CO2 emissions in that total.

  4. Quentin at 8.05pm.
    He resonates with 41% of voters now. That vote is probably banked up in QLD, the NT and outback NSW.
    Nuclear policy hasn’t upset the electorate. There’s a lot of migrants come in from countries where nuclear is a normal part of the mix. They see stupid labor running ads about 3 eyed fish and they think this is stupid and childish, which it is. We need more coal, more gas and nuclear. We don’t want policies designed by 16 year olds from wealthy European countries. They can fuck off.

  5. Golly, you leave this place for an hour or two when the sun goes down and suddenly, from all the dark corners, pop the trolls from left and right. The come like snake oil salesmen/women splashing their loon stuff from the extreme right and left of the political spectrum.
    Happy to leave them to those who have the patience and stomach to deal with their wild assertions.

  6. ALABAMA @ #923 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 7:45 pm

    No one talking about climate change rubbish any more. Thank fuck, It’s all rubbish. Glad that issue is solved.

    [Verse 1]
    Oh, ALABAMA
    The devil fools with the best laid plan
    Swing low, ALABAMA
    You got the spare change, you got to feel strange
    And now the moment is all that it meant

    [Chorus]
    ALABAMA, you got the weight on your shoulders
    That’s breaking your back
    Your Cadillac has got a wheel in the ditch
    And a wheel on the track

    [Verse 2]
    Oh, ALABAMA
    Banjos playing through the broken glass
    Windows down in ALABAMA
    See the old folks tied in white robes
    Hear the banjo, don’t it take you down home?

    [Chorus]
    ALABAMA, you got the weight on your shoulders
    That’s breaking your back
    Your Cadillac has got a wheel in the ditch
    And a wheel on the track

    [Verse 3]
    Oh, ALABAMA
    Can I see you and shake your hand?
    Make friends down in ALABAMA
    I’m from a new land, I come to you and
    See all this ruin, what are you doing?

    [Outro]
    ALABAMA, you’ve got the rest of the Union
    To help you along
    What’s going wrong?

  7. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 5:27 pm
    [Albo shouldn’t have punished O’Neil and Giles. He just went for the easy target sacrificial lambs.]

    [Marles, Tanya, Madeleine King and Dreyfus are the ones doing the damage. Shorten is past his used by date as well.]

    You’re on fire today Rex.
    Those ten Labor staffers allocated to “hang off your every utterance” will have been kept very busy today.

  8. Steve777 at 8.26pm, I do enjoy.
    The next step he’ll be being laughed at. That’s usually the end. Good riddance I hope.
    By the way, I haven’t had any of my posts deleted tonight.
    I got the message last time, no personal abuse of other posters, no altering their on line names.

  9. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 5:57 pm
    [The Greens and Labor Rusties know in their hearts that they’re going to the wall come the day of the rope, imo, but I say that’s more reason to indulge their fantasies and delusions.]

    You’d know Baddie, you’ve allocated more than sufficient “fantasies and delusions” today.
    I suspect many on PB believe you’re the “go to” for such things.

  10. Re Nuclear Power, the three eyed fish aren’t an issue. A well-run nuclear power plant is safe. The waste isn’t voluminous and we have lots of places to bury the stuff where it won’t be a problem.

    One issue is that it has to be managed competently for a lifetime of several decades and eventually decommissioned in an orderly fashion.

    But let’s take all that as given. Replacing fossil fuels with nuclear won’t prevent the escape of a single CO2 molecule into the atmosphere before 2040* at earliest, probably much later than that. Nuclear can’t make a significant contribution to greenhouse emissions for some years after that as more reactors are commissioned. So what do we do in the meantime? We’re not going to let the lights go out.

    And the other question, why would we bother? Renewables are available now, are cheaper, are being rolled out now.

    Nuclear is a wedge and a distraction to cover s determination to maintain fossil fuel profits.

    * we can call bullshit on 2035

  11. Wow, read the last 3 pages on PB and you’d think Labor is in crisis, there will a save the bloody furniture election in September, Albanese is gawnn and the Coalition are going to romp to victory under the brilliant leadership of Peter Dutton. What a load of bollocks ! I thought it was just the Greens living in fantasy land- err no, the Liberal luvvies here have moved shop to Nottingham Forrest too. Stay there.

  12. Lordbane you said yourself you would put yourself 6 feet under if you cared about the views of those like AE whose worldview you despise. No need for a sanguine Beria or Stalin to dispose of you once the revolution comes, you’d do it yourself once they betrayed your righteous principles.

    In a democracy we have to take account of the views of others, even those we fiercely oppose. And getting things done means working with the majority. You can’t dictate with 15% of the vote, no matter how right you are

  13. Out of sorts – coal is good. Clean coal better.
    Good honest work, and has nothing to do with climate change. No one can control the climate. It’s all rubbish all this climate change chicken little the sky is falling down.
    Coal, gas, nuclear and Trump.

  14. Oddly enough I’ve seen Earlwood wax lyrical about how he would rather enjoy executing the Royal Family come the Revolution. I guess he’s feeling a bit more ensconced in the Establishment today.

  15. Hey sub, when did I say the Greens should dictate all policy?

    I said the Greens were prepared to negotiate.

    I said that Labor shifting to the right is why they are losing Left voters to the Greens and others.

    I said if Labor shifts left it would likely take voters from the Greens.

    I did not say 15 percent should dictate the political field.

    Looking forward to the next “good faith” rewriting of my statements 🙂 (weird how often it happens)

  16. Bystandersays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 8:41 pm
    AE
    I’m curious as to why you despise Churchill. Please explain (as Pauline Hanson might have put it).
    =============================================

    As a General he despised Australians and used them as cannon fodder in WW1. He refused to allow the our soldiers to return when Australia was under threat in WW2. He basically tried to hijack the 7th Division from Australian control. He finally was forced to allow them to return but with no protection for a troop transport ships on the long voyage home in enemy patrolled waters. Lets not get into to British cowardice in Singapore and how they sacrificed most the 8th Division for nothing. Even trying to put Indian blocking troops behind them in Malaysia. He also tried to sell out and sacrifice Australia at the Arcadia Conference.

    https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/curtin-brings-home-troops

    http://www.battleforaustralia.org/battaust/Britain_betrays_Australia.html#:~:text=Churchill%20even%20resisted%20the%20return,India%20against%20the%20advancing%20Japanese.&text=Less%20than%20two%20weeks%20after,November%201940%2C%20President%20Franklin%20D.

  17. Only 4 deleted. I wasn’t abusive.
    Oh well, looks like I stirred up all the lefties again. Better head off. Thanks for being a real libertarian. No fighters though. 41% primary. Go Dutts, go Trump. Pity about the beer with you know who. Another time.
    Evening entropy

  18. subgeometer @ #967 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 9:00 pm

    Lordbane you said yourself you would put yourself 6 feet under if you cared about the views of those like AE whose worldview you despise. No need for a sanguine Beria or Stalin to dispose of you once the revolution comes, you’d do it yourself once they betrayed your righteous principles.

    In a democracy we have to take account of the views of others, even those we fiercely oppose. And getting things done means working with the majority. You can’t dictate with 15% of the vote, no matter how right you are

    A valid perspective. However, I have gleaned that The Greens believe that, with the Balance of Power in the Senate, if they join hands with the Coalition, then they can dictate terms to Labor, no matter if they only get their usual 11% at elections. It’s cynical, bloody-minded politics, but it’s all they’ve got because their vote at elections appears to have stagnated at ~11%. Added to which is that the only way they can win Lower House seats is by coming from behind Labor or the LNP. But that’s our system and it’s open to anyone to exploit it as The Greens do.

  19. Yes Sandman it’s it’s really weird it’s like it’s like it’s 55 to 45 lnp also I’m living in a house that has solar panels so guess I’m woke lefty

  20. Entropy, a succinct statement on just one of the many, many, monstrous actions of Churchill. Thats not even getting started on his actions in the other colonies…

  21. Alabama I’m going to make be really nice to you he resonates with 41% of the voters now we Tony Abbott was the same thing he resonated with voters then and when he got into when he got in it took a year before everyone went oh you’re a bad prime minister

  22. I recommend reading this essay on the importance of Centrism in politics and democracies, by Jennifer Rubin. I have made it free to read, no paywall to stop you:

    It’s no exaggeration to say that, as goes centrism, so goes democracy. In this time of turmoil, we desperately need both.

    Conventional wisdom portrays the political center as on the ropes around the world. This month, President Emmanuel Macron ended the “centrist experiment” in France, coming in second in elections behind a left-wing coalition. In the United States, “RINO” and “neo-liberal” are dismissive epithets hurled at the center from the far right and left. Centrist solutions are derided by the fringes in their parties as inadequate to the daunting challenges we face.

    But properly understood — and it rarely is — centrism embodies the best of (American) politics. And it provides the only real path forward for a diverse, fragmented and highly contentious democracy under strain. In fact, embedded within centrism are the precise tools we need to fix what ails our democracy.

    A dive into true centrism reveals its power and utility. But first, we have to dispense with some things that centrism is not. Centrism isn’t a mushy tendency to compromise. It isn’t a brain-dead fondness for style over substance. Above all, it is not to be confused with “moderation” — the futile and frankly foolish attempt to carve out a space halfway between the extremes of (MAGA) authoritarianism on the right and rabid nihilism from the left.

    https://wapo.st/46m0yqK

  23. ALABAMAsays:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 9:06 pm
    Only 4 deleted. I wasn’t abusive.
    Oh well, looks like I stirred up all the lefties again. Better head off. Thanks for being a real libertarian. No fighters though. 41% primary. Go Dutts, go Trump. Pity about the beer with you know who. Another time.
    Evening entropy
    ====================================================

    Hello ALABAMA
    I’m just doing a bit of pommy bashing at the moment. So you should be right as long as you don’t take Churchill’s side. Leave Roosevelt alone, he’s the good guy too in this story.

    New deal?

  24. I just want to say guys I’ve been reading the pole bludger from 2017 in this sanday night’s the most insane I seen it in

  25. I see C@T is quoting a neocon… me thinks Rubin has a different view on “centrism” then C@T (hopefully), as Rubin is a

    – self proclaimed US conservative
    – a supporter of Likud (and has supported in personal tweets revenge killings of Palestinians)
    – Has downplayed far right terrorist attacks, including the Anders Brevik killings in Norway, blaming it on Islamists
    – Supports the use of torture
    – Supported Lindsey Graham
    – is against universal healthcare

    Something something political fishhook something something…

  26. “Entropy, a succinct statement on just one of the many, many, monstrous actions of Churchill. Thats not even getting started on his actions in the other colonies…”

    ____

    Indeed.and he was a lifelong fuck up. As Malcolm Tucker would say “from bean to cup, he fucks up. An omnishambles”.

    So, we may not share much Lordbain, but at least we will always have Churchill to despise. Some common ground at last.

    Night all.

  27. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has raised $200 million since she emerged as the likely Democratic presidential nominee last week, an eyepopping haul in her race against the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
    Over 170,000 volunteers have also signed up to help the Harris campaign with phone banking, canvassing and other get-out-the-vote efforts. Election Day is 100 days away.
    https://apnews.com/article/harris-campaign-fundraising-200-million-5db5d7c5001c87377e4ba11250fff597

  28. Diogenes:

    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 8:34 pm

    [‘No surprise to see Giles and O’Neil demoted. Neither had the faintest idea of what they were doing.’]

    Giles is arguably more knowledgeable about immigration
    issues than anyone in Parliament. His weakness was/is that he was a poor performer in the House, and was found to be ill-prepared following the High Court decision that permitted a certain class of crims to live ashore. I don’t have an opinion about O’Neil other than to say she presents well, and that she’ll come back to a more senior portfolio in due course – not that Housing is inconsequential.

  29. Lordbain

    So negotiate. Green tactics 90% grandstanding. We are in a climate emergency FFS, we need some wins, not to put the reactionaries back in power. Learn how to be part of a government like the German Greens did decades ago

  30. sub, please point to me where the Labor party has said they are prepared to negotiate with the Greens

    Point out on what points they are prepared to shift towards the Greens and meet them half way.

    I mean it worked for the HAFF; an extra 3 billion thanks to the Greens.

    Hell, the Greens came out and said they are prepared to negotiate on housing just this afternoon…. but then that was claimed to be grandstanding stunts by some here.

    So tell me… where will Labor meet the greens halfway 🙂

  31. Lordbain says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 9:46 pm
    sub, please point to me where the Labor party has said they are prepared to negotiate with the Greens

    Hopefully Labor have not made such overtures. The Greens are perennially bad-faith players. They should be offered no encouragement.

  32. There’s noggin with the aforementioned catch 22

    The Greens don’t negotiate

    When the greens say they negotiate, it’s a stunt and they won’t negotiate

    With an attitude like that, no wonder the Labor party is getting so much policy through 🙂

  33. The sad thing is that The Greens seem to have copped to this modus operandi also. I think that they’ve lost their way from the early days of Christabel Chamarette and Dee Margetts. Nowadays they’re just Little Libs, and that includes no desire to compromise with Labor. The Coalition virus has infected them.

  34. Mavis
    Giles didn’t seem to realise it’s easy to lose with the High Court and you really need a plan B if you do.
    O’Neil was always reactive but she was hamstrung by a PM who is a Luddite (apart from quantum computing).

  35. Diogenes @ #993 Sunday, July 28th, 2024 – 9:56 pm

    Mavis
    Giles didn’t seem to realise it’s easy to lose with the High Court and you really need a plan B if you do.
    O’Neil was always reactive but she was hamstrung by a PM who is a Luddite (apart from quantum computing).

    Yeah, promoting a Voice for Indigenous Australians and an aggressive Renewable Energy program is so ‘Luddite’. 🙄

  36. Lordbain says:
    Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 9:52 pm

    Labor are very well aware of the depth of Green antipathy. Labor have every reason to withhold rewards from the Greens. They will repay compromise with betrayal. They’ve done it many times. The Greens appear to believe they are the conscience of the Parliament in general and of Labor in particular. They are no such thing. They are fakes.

  37. At the Raiders game tonight, Albo turned up in Bunnies gear, got a roasting but I guess the trolls here thought it was significant lol!

  38. Australia is lower than Uganda on its global economic complexity rating.
    We are happy digging up dirt to send to proper countries to process. And growing animals to kill.

  39. Slight correction, the notion that luddites are anti tech is a misunderstanding of the original movement, which was about raising concerns relating to how technology would enable a shift of power from the worker to the capitalist… so, they wrte on the money there.

    Propaganda changed the message to appearing to fear tech for the sake of fearing the new, and here we are…

  40. People tend to hang around the political centre when things are going well, but you will not have political stability or consensus around the status quo if you can’t deliver economic security. In Australia and across many other countries established parties of government have not delivered great outcomes for the majority of people this century, more people are feeling insecure and think their standard of living is in decline. That is mostly what is driving people to extremes. If so-called moderates can’t or won’t deliver improvements or at least not make things worse then people unsurprisingly start considering more radical alternatives.

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