While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.
• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.
Preselection news:
• Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.
• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.
• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.
Moreton and Lilley were the best results [in Qld] for YES outside the 3 Green seats that voted YES.
It’s Time time for Labor in it’s Inner Brisbane seats?
I’d say yes, the main industry in those 5 suburbs now is House Prices, the dilemma of living in a million dollar+ asset and having to move closer to the boonies if you cash out.
edited
Badthinker, wrong again. The Greens are targeting renters and the working class in Lilley and Moreton, not the well to do’s with million dollar plus mortgages –
“The architect of the Greens’ best federal election result in Queensland says not only can the minor party hold the three seats it won in 2022, it will target two more renter-heavy Labor seats in Brisbane by arguing that Anthony Albanese’s party has abandoned its working-class base.
“The platform that the Greens will be running on at the next federal election, in broad terms, will be a freeze and cap on rent increases; scrapping student debt and HECS debt; and making university free; cracking down on the big supermarkets and making price gouging illegal; and breaking up Coles and Woolworths, and I think that’s a very broad, popular platform,”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-target-labor-in-qld-offensive/news-story/239fb3fa20e31431ce4fff5e41c7a464
In Moreton the Greens will have to do a lot better than 20.8 of the PV in 2022 compared to 37.4 for Labor. The Libs would have to flip their preferences to the Greens to win there. And in Lilley, Labors pv was 41.8 % in 2022 compared to the Greens 17.9 % pv. Again they would have to out pv the Libs on 29.8 % and have the Libs flip to preferencing the Greens. Tell them they are dreaming, again.
Been There says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 10:22 pm
Thanks for that info Dog’s Brunch.
Explains a lot.
Wondered where the booing excitement was coming from.
Gee’s they are desperate to find any negatives!
——————————
There was as much booing for Jack Wighton as anything else there…the crowd is pretty parochial and I was struck by the ‘jovial’ nature of the boos from down in the cheap seats where we sit. Albo seemed to be enjoying the attention and we all (except the Souffs supporters) had a good night 🙂
Did see that Kristy McBain was with him and having a good laugh too.
I can’t recall ScoMo turning up at a Sharks away fixture in his Daggy Dad gear though, that might have had a different vibe. We tend to ‘own’ our PMs in Canberra, even The Rodent, but ScoMo was a bridge too far.
Million dollar plus Mortgages?
Maybe on Planet Sandman.
Federal lib/nats are likely to lose more seats than they retain and gain across the country
Even more laughable is the Tasmanian Greens going after Andrew Wilkies seat [Clarke].
Greens in the party’s birthplace, Tasmania, are eyeing Andrew Wilkie’s federal Hobart seat, and firmly backing federal leader Adam Bandt’s stance on Israel’s “genocidal, heinous” war in Gaza.
Greens MP Vica Bayley, speaking as acting leader, said the party, riding high after winning five seats at the March state election, had Mr Wilkie’s federal seat of Clark as “top of our list”.
“Clark is going to be on our agenda, there’s no doubt,” Mr Bayley told The Australian. “Clark is a seat we’ll always challenge strongly – select our best candidate and run a good, solid campaign.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/tasmanian-greens-target-wilkie-seat-back-bandt-on-israel/news-story/55a219494b7d508b51d4b72bc93ebfa3
Could be, but only if Labor heads Poll-wards before Harris wins.
I think that eventuality would remove any continuing enthusaiasm for Labor in Australia, though it might help The Greens in those old Labor Seats?
Is Badthinker conceding the federal lib/nats are done if there is a early federal election
Badthinker, Harris isn’t winning anything, she is more unpopular than Biden according to polls and even more unpopular than what Hillary was in 2016.
The Coalition here in Australia have a higher chance of majority government than Harris winning in the USA barring a major screwup/disaster by Trump or his campaign.
Wasn’t Wilkie tipped to be retiring?
Greens might be a better fit given the likelihood of a Dutton Government.
Looking closer at the Cabinet reshuffle, Home Affairs now has
Tony Burke – Cabinet.
And he has 5 juniors.
1. Jenny McAllister – emergency management
2. Matt Thislethwaite – immigration
3. Julian Hill – citizenship and multicultural affairs
4. Peter Khalil – Special Envoy for social cohesion
5. Andrew Charlton – Special Envoy for cyber security and digital resilience
This must be a record for the number of front benchers in one portfolio.
It also points to the sprawling hodgepodge of a department created by Dutton and the Pez. Surely post election, this should be split up.
And finally, these “Special Envoys”. Reminds me of when Barnaby Joyce as Drought Envoy got to tour the outback pubs and text Malcolm that “it’s dry as a dead dingo’s donger out here…”
That’s crazy re the candidate for Pearce. That’s a seat the Coalition would think it might have an outside chance of winning back. It has a tradition of electing very moderate Liberal moderates like Fred Chaney and Judi Moylan. Even Porter, although more right wing than his predecessors, came into Federal Parliament as a figure of some substance (until it all went horribly wrong for him).
An out and out god botherer surely isn’t going to get the job done in Pearce. Will/can Dutton intervene?
DanielT
Keep up
Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a bounce in her favorability rating among Americans just days after President Joe Biden bowed out of the presidential race and endorsed her, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday.
The vice president’s favorability rating has jumped to 43%, with an unfavorability rating of 42%, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released a week ago, Harris’ favorability rating was 35%, while 46% viewed her unfavorability.
Forty-four percent of independents have a favorable view of Harris, up from only 28% a week ago. Her unfavorability rating among independents is now 40%, which is a slight drop from 47% last week
There have been no discussions of another Democrat challenging Harris for the nomination and a slight majority of Americans, 52%, say she should be the Democratic nominee, the poll found. This number jumps to 86% among Democrats, compared to 51% of independents and only 20% of Republicans.
Harris has an edge over former President Donald Trump when it comes to how much enthusiasm Americans feel for them as nominees. Forty-eight percent of Americans say they would feel enthusiastic if Harris becomes the Democratic nominee. Fewer, 39%, say they are enthusiastic about Trump being the Republican nominee.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-sees-boost-favorability-after-biden-drops-race/story?id=112306763
Scott:
I would think so, Scott.
The ’22 result was so bad, they were lucky to hold 58, but the longer Albanese puts off biting the Election bullet, the more likely the Swing will be on.
And when that happens, the previous result doesn’t mean much anymore.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls (I’ll leave realclearpolling, 538, NYT, WaPo, … for now)
“On November 5th Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. Until June 27th it seemed a foregone conclusion that the match-up would be between the same two candidates as in 2020: Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, and Donald Trump, his Republican predecessor in office. But that night Mr Biden delivered a disastrous debate performance. It immediately made Democrats question Mr Biden’s fitness for the job. On July 21st he bowed to pressure and withdrew from the race. He endorsed his vice-president, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate.
Early polls after Mr Biden dropped out suggest Ms Harris is closer to Mr Trump than her predecessor was, but she is still trailing; one by YouGov/The Economist on July 21st-23rd put Ms Harris at 41% and Mr Trump at 44%, while a New York Times/Siena poll from July 22nd-24th put her at 47% to his 48% among likely voters. Once there are sufficient polls to create a reliable average we will restart our tracker (for now we are reporting candidates’ favourability ratings).
Ms Harris has gained the support of enough delegates to the Democratic National Convention to win the nomination. She will have little time to unite her party, fire up voters, and counter Mr Trump’s campaign. Mr Biden’s presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills and turmoil abroad, things which Republicans will seek to pin on Ms Harris too. But she has one clear advantage over Mr Biden: her age. At 59 she is over two decades younger than he is, and 18 years younger than Mr Trump.”
Apropos not much but as a kid I spent a fair bit of time under shearing sheds shovelling shit…The kids from Gunning PS doing their bit fundraising for their school because Sandstone Entrance Gates don’t come cheap these days!
sprocket_ says:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 6:35 am
Looking closer at the Cabinet reshuffle, Home Affairs now has
Tony Burke – Cabinet.
And he has 5 juniors.
1. Jenny McAllister – emergency management
2. Matt Thislethwaite – immigration
3. Julian Hill – citizenship and multicultural affairs
4. Peter Khalil – Special Envoy for social cohesion
5. Andrew Charlton – Special Envoy for cyber security and digital resilience
This must be a record for the number of front benchers in one portfolio.
——————————————–
Agree , why the envoys
can understand
Jenny McAllister – emergency management ,
Andrew Charlton – Special Envoy for cyber security and digital resilience , why not just called the minister for
Surely Labor can do better than Shaoquett Moselmane!
Jeez.
I would think Sam Moreton is the pea for Barton – Chris Gambian might be the runner up?
The Shoq is just a headline.
Labor should catch the wave of Harris momentum and give itself 3 more years.
I think the gloss will wear off Harris quickly once she’s President and that will impact progressives everywhere.
Dutton with a workable majority would be a Labor nightmare, since a win would indicate he’s carried the female vote, his main obstacle at the moment.
On the reshuffle I’m disappointed Plibersek was ignored yet again. It seems especially nonsensical given the government needs to have its best performers out in front.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-29/anthony-albanese-reshuffle-voter-confidence/104152634
With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state.
The Daily Rupert is trolling us.
Paul Whittaker has more chance of ALP Barton preselection than Moselmane.
Err the PM And Environment Minister detest each other politically.
He put her there to fail.Leaves her there to fail also.
She is doing not bad also has a commonsense approach to gas.
11,ooo business failures last financial year more coming in huge numbers as tax office is owed massive amounts.Will take at least until the next poll to chase billions in tax not a good look for poor fed labor gov as another 10,000 business go to the wall which will continue to be highlighted daily in some media.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Anthony Albanese has given Tony Burke and Clare O’Neil two huge jobs – and two huge opportunities, writes Stephanie Peatling. She says they are heading to two problem portfolios that Labor must turn into strengths.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-two-problem-portfolios-that-labor-must-turn-into-strengths-20240728-p5jx79.html
Phil Coorey reckons O’Neil is jumping from the frying pan to the fire in Albanese’s deft reshuffle.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/o-neil-jumps-from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire-in-deft-reshuffle-20240728-p5jx5a
Clare O’Neil will take on selling the government’s housing agenda, which pollsters say has been drowned out by the Greens’ precocious spokesman Max Chandler-Mather, says Jessica Gardner.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/now-its-o-neil-v-chandler-mather-on-housing-20240728-p5jx66
George Brandis is pleased that, for once, Australia will be having an election about policy, not politics.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/for-once-an-election-about-policy-not-politics-20240726-p5jwrx.html
Greg McIntyre writes about our nation’s great shame where the most vulnerable are being turned away from neglected legal aid.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nation-s-great-shame-most-vulnerable-turned-away-from-neglected-legal-aid-20240724-p5jw6e.html
The agency behind Melbourne’s North East Link tollway is refusing to reveal how much taxpayer money it has spent on payments to some of the state’s wealthiest private schools, despite publicly available annual reports showing one school pocketed at least $8 million.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/as-north-east-link-hides-payments-to-private-schools-one-reveals-its-millions-20240724-p5jw85.html
Michael Smith takes us inside the stoush between private hospitals and health insurers. He says many fear the challenges facing private hospitals are just the tip of the iceberg for the whole healthcare system which has not seen serious reform in decades and will face growing cost pressure from an ageing population. That is something that is unlikely to happen in the Albanese government’s current term.
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/inside-the-stoush-between-private-hospitals-and-health-insurers-20240718-p5juu3
New research shows an increasing number of Australians are gambling online and entering “risky” territory, reports Amy Remeikis. The Australian National University’s centre for gambling research found people have continued to gamble at elevated levels, after spiking post-pandemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/29/online-gambling-in-australia-has-exponentially-increased-new-report-warns
The Australian has a go at the ABC’s Laura Tingle for attacking Peter Dutton for using ‘Trumpian language’, and being ‘loose with facts’.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/abcs-laura-tingle-attacks-peter-dutton-for-using-trumpian-language-and-being-loose-with-facts/news-story/7f0da72c5f35287a4c96ae3872454d0b?amp=
“Is the energy market operator AEMO ‘getting owned’ by the gas cartel?”, ask Kim Wangerei and Michael West.
https://michaelwest.com.au/electricity-bills-is-energy-market-operator-aemo-getting-owned-by-the-gas-cartel/
Strata committees are being quoted up to 120 per cent more than individual homeowners for building and trade work, with lawyers and advocates warning of a surcharge applied to unsuspecting body corporates. Amber Shultz refers to a survey by the Australian Consumers Insurance Lobby, released in April, that found some maintenance and repair companies inflated strata unit quotes by up to 120 per cent.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/strata-residents-warned-of-inflated-invoices-for-trades-work-20240717-p5juil.html
“The wheels of justice can, at times, turn slowly. Very slowly. But if you are an Aboriginal person in NSW on remand, the wheels appear to have gone into reverse”, laments the SMH editorial which says NSW Police can no longer be on remand as a law unto itself.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-police-can-no-longer-be-on-remand-as-a-law-unto-itself-20240723-p5jvs4.html’
In the wake of a scathing report into Child Protection by the NSW Auditor-General, the NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal has delayed the release of child protection oversight documents, writes Rex Patrick.
https://michaelwest.com.au/department-of-justice-and-ncat-in-child-protection-cover-up/
“Much as I admire America, I’m glad I was born an Australian. Having spent the past month in America I’m reminded of one of the reasons why: I don’t have to choose between Trump and Harris”, writes Alexander Downer. If he did have a vote he would close his eyes and vote for Trump, he says.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-vulgar-vs-the-divisive-i-know-who-id-vote-for/news-story/70a7845bd80a2e202fd14ec8666803c3?amp=
The New York Times’ Ross Douthart writes about the ideological cracks that have opened up in America since 2020 and he says that now, with the surge of support for Kamala Harris’ candidacy, one can sense an effort to overcome these divisions, to reassert the establishment’s anti-Trump consensus, to recover the unity of 2020 and put the full power of what Nate Silver once called the “indigo blob” at the presumptive Democratic nominee’s disposal.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/kamalamentum-is-masking-the-desperation-of-democrats-20240728-p5jx5z.html’
“One of the more noteworthy features of the recent Republican National Convention was the reverential reception of Donald Trump. Even before Trump’s brush with death, eighty per cent of evangelical Christians supported him. What does this say about their beliefs and motives?”, wonders Mark Beeson.
https://johnmenadue.com/donald-trump-and-god-not-a-match-made-in-heaven/
US Democrats have spent recent days trying out a relatively new attack line on Donald Trump: that he is weird. Difficult to argue with!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/28/kamala-harris-trump-weird
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
Alan Moir
Fion Katauskas
Leak
From the US
Thanks BK!
#weatheronPB
Against the blue sky,
bright shadows divide the ground.
Hiding. Revealing.
Australia has added a fourth gold medal to its tally at the Paris Olympics after Jess Fox’s stunning performance in the K-! women’s slalom finals while the nation’s W rugby sevens team also enjoyed success on day two. Australia claimed two big wins, brushing aside South Africa 34-5 before claiming another big 36-5 win over Great Britain.
“Much as I admire America, I’m glad I was born an Australian. Having spent the past month in America I’m reminded of one of the reasons why: I don’t have to choose between Trump and Harris”, writes Alexander Downer. If he did have a vote he would close his eyes and vote for Trump, he says.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-vulgar-vs-the-divisive-i-know-who-id-vote-for/news-story/70a7845bd80a2e202fd14ec8666803c3?amp=
________________________________
I think it says everything about the Liberal party that they would vote for Trump every time.
What would it take for them to vote the other way?
There is no closing of the eyes, the vote for Trump would be enthusiastic…
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke at a party rally on Sunday, making a rare explicit threat to invade Israel while addressing the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.
“We must be very strong so that Israel cannot strike Palestine,” he said. “Just like we entered Karabakh and the way we entered Libya, maybe we’ll do the same thing. There’s nothing we can’t do. We have to be strong.” Erdogan referred to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which resulted recently in Azerbaijan taking control of the breakaway region. Azerbaijan notably managed to regain control of the territory with the help of Israel and Turkey, with Turkish forces not entering the fighting. In Libya, however, Turkey played a major role in the civil war.
Liberal Party pols have dissed Trump in the past, see John Howard and Mal Turnbull.
The takeout is just how awful Harris is.
edited
That Liberals are quite comfortable voting for a candidate who is anti-democracy and has a policy manifesto that demonstrates that says it all about their extreme ideological purity.
Suella Braverman has announced she will withdraw from the Conservative leadership contest because the party does not want to hear the truth about why it lost the election.
The former home secretary said she had the required 10 MPs backing her candidacy to get her above the threshold to enter the race.
But in an exclusive article for The Telegraph, she says there was no point “for good or ill” in someone like her “running to lead the Tory Party when most of the MPs disagree with my diagnosis and prescription”. “The traumatised party does not want to hear these things said out loud,” she writes.
The move is likely to bolster former immigration minister Robert Jenrick’s run for the leadership as her standing would likely have split the Right-wing vote.
Badthinker @ #30 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 8:08 am
The takeout is just how awful Downer is.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk slammed Vice President Harris as an “extinctionist” in response to a resurfaced video of the vice president discussing the “climate anxiety” young people have felt when thinking about their futures. “Shamala is an extinctionist. The natural extension of her philosophy would be a de facto holocaust for all of humanity!” Musk wrote Saturday on the social platform X.
Musk was responding to a video from September 2023, shared by Donald Trump Jr. — former President Trump’s son — and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) — Trump’s running mate — during which Harris argued the large young voter turnout in 2020 was in part due to their concerns about climate change.
“Because young people said, ‘We’re not leaving it to other people to decide how we’re dealing with the climate crisis’ — you know, I’ve heard young leaders talk with me about a term they’ve coined called ‘climate anxiety,’” Harris said at Reading Area Community College, as part of her “Fight for Our Freedoms” college tour.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4797024-elon-musk-kamala-harris-extinctionist/
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Promising news in USA, less so locally.
I didn’t comment on the weekend Cabinet restructure. I found it necessary but insufficient. Changes needed to be made and they were. But other poor performers were left in Cabinet whilst some of Labor’s best parliamentary talent remains outside.
Albo wanted to project an image of stability and he has done it. Yet he seems blind to the fact that “stability” in the face of a public demand for action does not make him more popular. He needs to learn how to read the electorate better, whilst still ignoring Newscorp.
Several of Australia’s biggest problems are long term and not Labor’s fault. They require real reform to fix. Albo seems unwilling to undertake that reform. He needs to at least start the conversation.
Dog’s Brunch says:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 6:47 am
—————–
Great post for starting the week. Thanks.
AZ
+1 on what it says about Downer that he could even contemplate voting for Trump.
Dutton@Trump.
I wonder whether or when the Greens will come to their senses and realize that they are helping Dutton win the prime ministership
Anything it takes?
https://theshot.net.au/news/general-news/gravely-concerned-inc/
Stand by for the Great Unhingement.
But other poor performers were left in Cabinet whilst some of Labor’s best parliamentary talent remains outside.
Names?
Labor hasn’t enough talent to fill a Cabinet.
Why else would Albo demote 2 Ministers and give both their jobs to Tony Burke?
Michigan:
Harris 57%; Trump 47%
Huh?
FOX isn’t trying very hard to fake that Poll.
edit: It’s a “favourability Poll”, in other words, meaningless.
Confessions @ #21 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 7:01 am
Indeed. Why does she get no reward for being so supportive of Labor’s Fossil Fuel donors?
https://australiainstitute.org.au/coal-mine-tracker/update/tanya-plibersek-and-the-four-new-coal-mines/
She literally did all the dirty work and got nothing for it. Life can be so unfair sometimes.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/28/2258765/-Ohio-Gen-Z-registrations-surge?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Ohio Gen Z registrations surge
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/28/2258765/-Ohio-Gen-Z-registrations-surge?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Comparing yesterday’s file, which includes data on new registrations for the previous week since VP Harris became the presumptive nominee, to the new registrations in the week before Pres. Biden’s announcement, shows large increases for voters under about age 30 (per chart above).
Overall including all ages, 21,838 voters registered this week vs. 18,343 the previous week, an increase of 19%. So that’s an indication of increased interest generally.
56% of this week’s new OH registrations were female, compared to 48% of last week’s.
The situation is similar to what happened wrt registrations immediately following the Dobbs decision in June 2022, which clearly turned out well for Ohio’s Reproductive Freedom Amendment passed last November by a wide margin.
Albo had to go for a No-Risks reshuffle becuase of potential issues arising from the
Reynolds/Higgins defamation beginning in 4 days time, imo.
It’s being televised too, 2.5 hours behind EST.
Alternatively, if there are no Labor victims after 6 weeks of the Trial, he could call the Election.
If there are a couple, they could retire and Albo could reset, bringing that backbench ‘talent’ forth?
edited
Televised ? Guess we all know what entropy will be doing for the next 6 weeks.
Hmmm, how’s that progressing/ advancing Australia, fair, coming along, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_rankings_of_Australia?
Never mind values or principles it seems, just community consultation, citizens assemblies and focus groups to get the numbers.
ABC/ RMIT Promise Tracker again from the 2022 Australian Federal Election, https://www.abc.net.au/news/factcheck/promisetracker: Delivered 27, WIP 29, stalled 6, thwarted 0, broken 4.
Risks/ threats, say governance (Ersatz fICAC/ CIC, campaign finance reform, useful FoI, war powers reform, republic/ monarchy/ flag …), powershift/ $$Ns rather than special forces/ space/ platforms/ missiles/ drones/ AI, climate, inequality (opportunity, cost of living all the way to poverty/ sleeping rough, https://apple.news/AeoYouRmbT56loNgVaw1k5w), health, …
I would have expected centrists in gov to be blue sky on living standards and incrementalist on blowing up humanity. It seems they’re more like populists (neofascist opp).
Replacement government jets (MAX at that, instead of lowering expenses and emissions through more teleconferencing, could have gone for another MRTT).
All that 2023 largesse on a VTP&E, without actually going TRC/ makarata, treaty/ sovereignty/ reparations, … can’t upset settlers (‘from the Med Sea to Euphrates River … Albo’)?
2024 not buttressing the international rulez based order (UNSC, UNGA, ICJ, ICC …, whilst MH17 follow through hasn’t moved in a decade), surprised over indefinite immigration detention, further mine/ exploration approvals (and the Member for Sydney photo-ops with soon to be extinct flora or fauna), anything yet on measuring what matters going beyond words into actions.
Wither small target strategy?
I can’t wait for the 2025 Australian Federal Election’s promises, let alone policies (words, measure what matters, diversifying beyond blowing up humanity/ clearing land/ climate change resources to advanced manufacturing/ knowledge/ services/ experiences, actions), competencies and services.
I reckon Boer War’s right, listicles or not, that centrist shit lite is better than Ersatz populist full of shit in opp, let alone far right all shit or shite, except with a twist that sees the major party in gov returned with a reduced majority and ideally in minority fed gov with no shit minor party/ progressive or conservative independents in power.
I think that most of the Liberals who wouldn’t have been able to bring themselves to vote for Trump lost their seats to Teals. Howard, like Downer, would vote for Trump while holding his nose. Dutton, Abbott and Morrison would vote for Trump with relish.
That useless waste of space giles should have been dumped on the back bench 😡