The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.
Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.
A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.
Those who didn’t know “what has the government ever done for us?” haven’t received their latest electricity bill. If they had, they would have seen the first of four $75 payments to ease the cost of living.
Those in QLD will also see $1000 from the state government – the balance carries over to the next billing cycle. For many people, that’s six months of “free” electricity.
A follow up question next quarter would be interesting – but the media already have their sound bite.
“Labor has its nose back in front on [Essential’s] 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% …”
“The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure …”
Essentially (pun intended) a consistent result from these two pollsters … albeit founded on markedly different primary votes.
The use of genrative AI in universities (as distinct form true AI).
Anyone who has a passing interest in scifi has probably come across stories where humanity leans on AI to keep the lights on. The movie Wall-e has a good depiction of humans who have handed over their executive powers to AI.
One of the obvious outcomes is that higher level thinking is passed to genAI when it comes to synthesising university work. Humans are pretty lazy creatures, which really just means they seek to conserve energy when it is not necessary to expend it (a useful trait in the wild). So it’s blindingly obvious that uni students would be early mass adoptors of genAI.
My view is that there is no going back. Universities need to be at the leading edge of the wave in how to completely embrace genAI yet still turn out fully informed graduates. The how is yet to be determined, but it’s got to be achieved somehow.
The alternative is that in a few decades time human creativity will wither on the vine as we sit back in our hover chairs sipping nutrient slurpies.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/31/universities-australia-cheating-issues-ai-chatgpt
Thanks William. The Essential poll result on Trump is extraordinary. It seems Australian voters have as short memories as American ones do. Something for Labor to ponder.
Memories of Dutton in office will not be sufficient for Albo to defeat him. Labor needs to keep reminding people of their achievements.
I have also never understood why various inquiries into Morrison government wrongdoing never resulted in any prosecutorial action. That would remind voters too.
BW: “Will Dutton offer Bandt and the Greens a ministry or two for their services?”
It would be ironic if they gave them an environmental ministry so they could witness firsthand the wrecking of the environment. An outcome have been campaigning so hard for.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Albanese has now been PM longer than Tony Abbott – and there is no disturbance in the ranks. If he wins the next election Albanese will be the first since John Howard in 2004 to have been re-elected, writes Paul Kelly who says Albanese is betting the house on stability in an astute reshuffle.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albanese-bets-the-house-on-stability-in-astute-reshuffle/news-story/35cbfad42ca8fcc2515cb12082a7f4f3?amp=
Shane Wright explains why today’s inflation figures mean the RBA faces its toughest decision in a generation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-wednesday-s-inflation-figures-mean-the-rba-faces-its-toughest-decision-in-a-generation-20240725-p5jwkx.html
Peter Martin believes the RBA is highly unlikely to lift interest rates next week, even if inflation climbs.
https://theconversation.com/why-the-rba-is-highly-unlikely-to-lift-interest-rates-next-week-even-if-inflation-climbs-235683
There are interest rate cuts around the world — Australia should join the gang, urges Stephen Koukoulas.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/interest-rate-cuts-around-the-world–australia-should-join-the-gang,18817
Paul Bongiorno writes that the revamped Albanese ministry is sweating on the latest inflation numbers.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/07/30/paul-bongiorno-albanese-inflation
The SMH editorial reckons Albanese government has work to do to keep electorate on board. It says Burke and O’Neil will be pivotal to its chances. The countdown has begun.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-government-has-work-to-do-to-keep-electorate-onboard-20240730-p5jxm4.html
The decision by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to transfer responsibility for Australia’s domestic intelligence agency ASIO from the Department of Homes Affairs to the Attorney-General’s Department, announced on Sunday with the changes to the ministry, may not be something that gets political commentators excited. Yet it was an important recalibration of our security architecture that will be greatly welcomed by national security professionals, lauds George Brandis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/judgment-was-sacrificed-to-ambition-malcolm-turnbull-s-asio-folly-rightly-reversed-20240729-p5jxg1.html
The Coalition’s home affairs experiment was doomed to fail and Tony Burke has a huge job on his hands, writes Abul Rizvi who says the Turnbull government’s vision of making immigration function as part of Australia’s national security and law enforcement apparatus is hopefully over.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/30/liberal-coalition-department-of-home-affairs-tony-burke-peter-dutton-mike-pezzullo
Paul Sakkal and Stephanie Peatling report that the new Immigration Minister Tony Burke has dismissed as “idiotic” opposition claims he would be too soft on refugee claims by Palestinians as advocates say people fleeing the conflict in Gaza are struggling to eat and stay warm during the Australian winter.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/burke-dismisses-as-idiotic-opposition-claims-he-would-be-soft-on-palestinian-refugees-20240725-p5jwna.html
GPs, especially bulk-billing ones, are paying the price for government parsimony. Small wonder, then, that medical graduates are deserting general practice for more lucrative specialised medicine, writes Crispin Hull who says that Medicare is in dire need of some CPR after years of inappropriate indexation.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8710651/medicare-needs-urgent-reform-to-save-australias-healthcare/?cs=14258
New analysis by the Productivity Commission of donations to school building and other funds highlights how antithetical private school funding is to the concept of needs-based funding, writes Treveo Cobbold.
https://johnmenadue.com/productivity-commission-exposes-private-school-funding-defects/
All Rex flights between capital cities have been grounded and the airline has entered voluntary administration just hours after the Albanese government suggested it would intervene to ensure the nation’s third-largest carrier didn’t collapse.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/30/rex-airlines-federal-government
Rex offered cheap and reliable flights. David King knew it couldn’t last.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/rex-offered-cheap-and-reliable-flights-i-knew-it-couldn-t-last-20240730-p5jxn8.html
The TV rights bonanza has stalled, the frenzy to secure hosting rights is a thing of the past, and the Olympics’ political relevance has been reduced to who can be the most outraged over the artistic merits of the opening ceremony, writes Kim Wingerei.
https://michaelwest.com.au/no-to-russia-yes-to-israel-but-are-the-olympic-games-still-relevant/
US supreme court reform is now on the table. The election stakes just got higher, wrute Laurence H Tribe and Dennis Aftergut. They say Americans are desperate for the top court to be reformed. Kamala Harris could deliver change if she wins.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/30/supreme-court-reform-kamala-harris
Who is really powering JD Vance’s political rise? Tech bros not hillbillies, says Paul Krugman.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/who-is-really-powering-jd-vance-s-political-rise-tech-bros-not-hillbillies-20240730-p5jxmm.html
First came the Black women, who had been meeting every week for four years and were ready to spring into action for Kamala Harris. Then came the Black men and South Asian Americans. There were also the white women, in a Zoom-busting paroxysm of solidarity and angst. And now, ‘Like a rainbow of beige’, Liberal ‘white dudes’ are rallying for Harris.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/like-a-rainbow-of-beige-liberal-white-dudes-rally-for-harris-20240730-p5jxpb.html
Kamala Harris is the worst nightmare of America’s far right, declares Robert Reich who says Trump, JD Vance, and their Maga allies are misogynists who want to control women. Harris could not be more of a threat.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/30/kamala-harris-donald-trump-women-gender
Cartoon Corner – Nine Media only has a few recycled cartoons today/
Harry Bruce
Fiona Katauskas
Alan Moir
Glen Le Lievre
David Rowe
Spooner
From the US
Cagle cartoons https://cagle.com/cartoons/
#weatheronPB
Unforgiven night.
Holding me in cold embrace.
Then sun kisses me.
Rex update: DOMESTIC 737 SERVICES UPDATE
Flights between major airports have been cancelled, with the Rex Group’s domestic fleet of Boeing 737 aircraft are all grounded.
Virgin Australia has made an offer to honour all prepaid tickets for the Rex Group’ direct services between domestic capital cities, at no additional cost to passengers.
If you hold a prepaid ticket for future travel on any of these routes, you can transfer your Rex booking to a similar Virgin Australia flight.
Maybe Rex in administration will be enough damage to appease the RBA board that policy is working? Here’s hoping.
…the greens have been campaigning for the wrecking of the environment… huh.
Do some of you read what you post and think “yes, this is reality” because if you do please hand in your car keys…
Home affairs as a mega department should have been completely broken apartment, so good to see some more movement on that part by Labor.
Today’s the day… where will the chicken bones land…
Harris’ big (and only) plus is that she is not Trump, as this backgrounder shows.
https://x.com/PushBidenLeft/status/1817937373751091301?t=4KH0t_fLgNKaHzQRigC0gQ&s=08
Sohar, nate silvers models are live and are showing what alot of us expected; Harris has a better chance then Trump, hell she is likely to win the popular vote… but is the underdog for the electoral college.
Man, imagine if the dems had actually planned on having biden serve only one term and had instead spent the last 3 years grooming a batch of successors that would have had time to get name recognition, spread their messaging etc.
Good job dems…
Socratessays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 6:54 am
I have also never understood why various inquiries into Morrison government wrongdoing never resulted in any prosecutorial action. That would remind voters too.
_____________________
We don’t want to go down that road.
Will end up like the US.
Socrates, the reason for why these investigations don’t end up doing anything apart from the occasional wet lettuce thrashing of a public servant (as long as they are senior, juniors get shown the door) is because Labor is not exactly in a rush to establish systems that may every well end up being usef against them… there’s the major reason why the NACC is so useless, because both major parties would rather work together to make a paper tiger, then risk a a real tiger investigate their own screwsups…
It should come in at 3.8 good for labor.
Problem it looks like labor cannot control the amount of people coming in and it really does not want to ramp up exits for them as shown by the new visa secretly introduced meaning any temp migrant worker can stay until any alleged grievance is settled.
If inflation blows out the population ponzi scheme labor implemented has backfired.
Federal Labor knows temp workers from overseas can throw up any excuse and stay in the country an extra year.
Nadia if you cannot stand some minor heat get out of the kitchen as you have done.
You mean for all the fuss about NACC it’s not actually going to do anything? Zero prosecutions.
It’s a bit like the HAFF – in operation for 10 months and not one house APPROVED to be built let alone built.
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
There’s also that minor point of actually having to break the law to get prosecuted. Just because you don’t like their politics, doesn’t make them illegal.
Excellent point.
Coalition corruption is not just about breaking laws.
Apart from that, too soon to say.
Why do Duttonites want high inflation and a rate rise?
Weird.
Quiet morning?
Why not watch Kamala Harris rally in Atlanta about to start.. https://www.youtube.com/live/gCaBznoWNfk?si=31C-3V0H3WDxxL9_
Things to consider when predicting the date of the Federal election–
1 Northern Territory election on August 24th
2 The final determination of redistributions by the AEC
– WA on September 24th
– NSW on October 10th
– VICTORIA on October 17th
– NT Northern Territory on March 4th 2025
If an election is called before the redistribution determination process is complete, this sets off a ‘mini-redistribution’ process whereby the AEC makes a determination within 7 days of the election writs being issued by the Governor General. States that were slated to gain a seat would still gain a seat and those that were slated to lose a seat would still lose a seat. However, it seems the electoral boundaries of the previous election elsewhere in that State would apply, not the new boundaries being proposed. (Fact check needed here. Happy to be corrected).
3 Queensland State election on October 26th
4 Christmas school holidays Dec 23rd to Feb 6th [NSW]
5 WA State election on March 8th
6 April school holidays and Easter Weekend April 7-21st
Given these considerations, I think it most likely Labor will hold off to May 3rd, 10th or 17th and go full term with May 3rd being my tip if I were put on the spot right now. Badthinker your crystal ball needs some work mate if you still think they will jump at a September election.
Tragedy in England perpetrator from Rwanda.
2% Muslim population in Rwanda so protesting/rioting out front of a mosque a little premature.
“Tragedy in England perpetrator from Rwanda.”
Cardiff isn’t in Rwanda.
2 days til Reynolds/Higgins Defo kicks off, NACC a dud.
Interesting that Clare O’neil wasn’t booted to outer darkness?
Wong/Gallagher/Tanya been out of the news cycle for a while.
“Violent clashes have broken out in Southport over the mass stabbing at a Taylor Swift-themed dance event that claimed the lives of three children.Around 100 protesters battled police and lit fires, with thick plumes of smoke rising above the front line. Videos circulating on social media appeared to show a police van on fire and protesters pelting police with missiles, with a local mosque the apparent target.
Police have said they are not treating Monday’s attack as terror-related, but have not released any details of the suspected attacker other than that he is 17 years old and originally from Wales. They have only said that the attack was not considered “terror-related” and that no-one else was being sought”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/third-child-dies-as-knife-attack-plunges-uk-into-grief/news-story/215fe3b67cfe305ba562b703372656a7
17 y.o. stabs 13 girls at dance class, English Defence League and knife crime the story.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/uk-police-quiz-teenage-suspect-attack-left-2-112392750
Tommy Robinson [not his real name] rescues the Narrative, eh?
Wong was in South Korea yesterday playing footsies with them, that got on the news Bad. Tanya, well she was strongly connected to Bill Shorten who has been tagged electoral poision so maybe they are keeping her in the safe ministries per se. I am still befuddled as to why they shifted the member for Franklin from the Housing ministry gig. I thought she was doing a pretty good job of selling that portfolio policy agenda to the media and in the HOR.
>…the greens have been campaigning for the wrecking of the environment… huh.
Are you saying they should be supporting Labor’s plans to expand fossil fuel extraction or they would get the Coalition’s plans to expand fossil fuel extraction instead? That does not seem like their is much difference.
Catprog, I honestly have no idea why certain people here think the Greens are now.. anti environment, or are pro the Coalition more then they are pro environment.
The Greens should support Labor’s Work for the Dole or they might end up with the Liberals’ Work for the Dole. Which would be horrendous.
LB
Here is the idea.
The Greens have a bigger stake in taking seats off Labor than protecting the environment. Which they demonstrate every day.
FUBAR 8.31am
[There’s also that minor point of actually having to break the law to get prosecuted. Just because you don’t like their politics, doesn’t make them illegal.]
I like that!
Boerwar 8.51am
[Excellent point.
Coalition corruption is not just about breaking laws.
Apart from that, too soon to say.]
And that!
I honestly have no idea why certain people here think the Greens are now.. anti environment, or are pro the Coalition more then they are pro environment.
Great question!
The reason is there’s an environmental disaster happening right now with water quality, air quality, soil pollution, food quality.
Yet the Greens are focussed on what might happen 300 years down the track from burning Fossil Fuels?
The Greens aren’t even worried about trashing of the GAB by Clean Coal Tech, that’s how out of touch they are.
Lordbain @ #29 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 10:13 am
You apparently didn’t get the memo. That the Greens Political Party can take so many voters off Labor cannot possibly be because Labor policies are bad, it must be because green voters are being misled by the Greens Political Party.
Socrates –
“Labor needs to keep reminding people of their achievements.”
What achievements? Try taking Boerwar’s list of Labor achievements to someone lining up to pay their food bill at a supermarket. Or lining up to try and rent a house they probably can’t afford anyway. I suspect they would be as unimpressed as me.
There is a cost of living and housing crisis and the only achievement Albanese wants for his legacy is to get re-elected.
This is the time for a nation building massive public housing building project. But Albo thinks the capitalist market will sort it out.
Lordbain and Lars Von Trier –
I couldn’t agree more. The NACC is a joke. It would be funny if it wasn’t so disappointing. People killed themselves because of robo debt but it is not worth investigating. Years of the most crooked government in memory but nothing worth investigating.
dave and sprocket, surely neither of you would have anyyyyy issue if the greens proposed changes to Labors proposals as a sort of compromise right?
Barnaby’s Bullets/ Ballots speech an attack on the Dutts/Littleproud leadership, imo, sucked the air out for 2 days.
Problem is he’s backed by Gina.
Can’t see the Coalition getting back into Office without addressing the Joyce problem head on.
Yes it’s not actually about corruption it’s about the vibe of corruption now.
Everything gets levelled down by this govt to justify its failures and adopted by the superfans.
We were led to believe there was going to be arrests and prosecutions of various Liberal party figures. Turns out to all have been bullshit.
People killed themselves because of robo debt but it is not worth investigating.
Bill Shorten as SS Minister introduced RoboDebt.
Could that have been why Labor never raised it until after Bill quit as leader?
Badthinker @ #33 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 10:28 am
300 years? Seriously?
https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/effects/
Got it?
Got it?
State Governmemts wait til the last possible moment to release water from Flood Mitigation dams, resultant flooding caused by CO2?
National & State Parkland vastly expanded, unmanaged, resulting fires caused by CO2?
Yeah, I get it.
Any suggestion the Greens are anti-environment is just plain rediculous. I may not agree with how they want to fix the problem if you want to bring the electorate along with you for the ride, but they are not anti-environment. They might do absolutely anything to win Labor held seats like they tried in Wills by going all out pro Palestine which blew up in the faces when The Muslim Vote came along, but to say they would sacrifice the environment just to win seats is pretty lame IMHO. And I am a Labor supporter.
The issue is pollution of the GAB, not Coal.
Greens policy on pollution of GAB?
My guess is they haven’t got one, since there’s no money in it?
Amirite?
>State Governmemts wait til the last possible moment to release water from Flood Mitigation dams, resultant flooding caused by CO2?
Do you cause a flood now or do you wait until the flood subsides to release the water
>The Greens aren’t even worried about trashing of the GAB by Clean Coal Tech, that’s how out of touch they are.
You mean their policy to oppose all coal does not cover this?
What’s the connection between the Palestine issue and the Australian environment?
Not seeing any, which indicates to me that the Environment isn’t a first order issue for The Greens.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 10:40 am
[Yes it’s not actually about corruption it’s about the vibe of corruption now.]
[Everything gets levelled down by this govt to justify its failures and adopted by the superfans.]
[We were led to believe there was going to be arrests and prosecutions of various Liberal party figures. Turns out to all have been bullshit.]
That, Lars is a terrible attempt at “disingenuity”.
No wonder it’s such a quiet morning.
Standards please Lars!
You mean their policy to oppose all coal does not cover this?
It looks like The Greens are using the figleaf of Oppose All Coal to divert attention from their de facto policy of
Don’t upset the Multinational Miners.
goll, posters like C@T, BW, etc were almost salivating that the NACC would wipe out entire swathes of Coalition politicians… and yet here we are
“ Yes it’s not actually about corruption it’s about the vibe of corruption now.
Everything gets levelled down by this govt to justify its failures and adopted by the superfans.
We were led to believe there was going to be arrests and prosecutions of various Liberal party figures. Turns out to all have been bullshit.”
+1
Only 10 mins left until outright disappointment guys. Have fun 🙂