Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 31
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  1. Kirksdale
    Is there a community group nearby that interests you and could offer regular volunteer work.
    My friends in your situation have chosen that instead of mutual obligation. One in an information centre, previously an op shop. The other at a historic railway.
    It might make things more pleasant and is only 1 day a week iirc

  2. I think you have to be over 60 to have ‘volunteering’ accepted as your ‘Mutual Obligation’

    Local Men’s Sheds are often registered ‘volunteer organisations’ as is landcare

    But Kirsdarke probably wants to keep his computer skills up

  3. ‘billie says:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 9:46 am

    The danger for people on Centrelink income support payments is that when LNP are returned to power they will tighten the screws
    …’
    —————–
    It is in their blood.

  4. Closing down all the slots for QANTAS, Virgin and Rex, along with the massive Labor 43/30 regulatory, policy and program efforts, would would get us well above 43/30.

  5. The danger for people on Centrelink income support payments is that when LNP are returned to power they will tighten the screws
    It never happened in any previous Coalition return to office, why would it happen in the next one?
    Labor might be better off making the most of it’s time in office right now rather than obsessing over a future electoral verdict?

  6. Boerwar at 10:35 am
    Liberal v Liberal
    Reynolds is a Liberal Senator, who’s the other Liberal?
    I’d say it is Reynolds v Newscorp and Network Ten.


  7. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 8:41 am
    “ An Australian judge at the Olympic surfing event has been sensationally sacked.
    Ben Lowe has been removed by the International Surfing Association after posting a photo of himself with Australian surfer Ethan Ewing and coach Bede Durbidge. All hail from North Stradbroke Island.”

    _____

    This is ridiculous. Us North Straddie surfers are beyond reproach!

    Nah. Australians are beyond reproach.

  8. Here is a readable version of The West Australian’s deep dive into Dutton’s status in WA.

    https://thenightly.com.au/politics/the-key-state-peter-dutton-is-desperately-fighting-to-win-back-ahead-of-the-election-c-15559937?fbclid=IwY2xjawEZEKdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHSHDTtSs1rSrvxDQLjISvZmMqk-IHG5Kh_u66zRNwPEicH7_meNconNkAg_aem_J4qC92wtlkm8jJMEc-R-Fw

    If you don’t fancy a long read the quoted Liberals, mostly frontbenchers, say all is fine, Albanese is crap etc.

    The unnamed sources say his chances of picking up seats here currently looks grim.

    In an amazing bit of marketing the only ad on the two-page spread in the print edition is for a web based bible outfit headed “ God promised a saviour”

  9. I don’t understand why Murdoch and The Aus are constantly speculating about an early election. Constantly. Is it meant to undermine the PM in some way? Just ridiculous.

    For anyone seeking a relatively quick and eye-opening read, strongly recommend A Balcony Over Jerusalem by former Aussie middle east correspondent John Lyons. You know you’ve written something worthwhile when the Australian jewish lobby creates a website to discredit you – something Scientologists and North Koreans also love to do!

    (https://libgen.is for free ebooks)

  10. BKsays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 7:45 am
    At least the sunrise kept me entertained this morning!
    =================================================

    Reminds of something that has always puzzled me. Why do people from SA call Yellow gums Blue gums. Though highlights the importance of knowing they are Eucalyptus leucoxylon. Which strangely enough, despite their gum like appearance, are very closely related to ironbarks. In central Victoria hybrids between these two are known as bastard box.

  11. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 11:00 am
    Boerwar at 10:35 am
    Liberal v Liberal
    Reynolds is a Liberal Senator, who’s the other Liberal?
    I’d say it is Reynolds v Newscorp and Network Ten.
    ——————————————————

    Want the WA court be surprised to learn that. Considering neither of those parties are represented or named as defendants in the civil court action it is presiding over soon.

  12. hazza @ #612 Friday, August 2nd, 2024 – 11:22 am

    I don’t understand why Murdoch and The Aus are constantly speculating about an early election. Constantly. Is it meant to undermine the PM in some way? Just ridiculous.

    For anyone seeking a relatively quick and eye-opening read, strongly recommend A Balcony Over Jerusalem by former Aussie middle east correspondent John Lyons. (https://libgen.is for free ebooks)

    I saw recently that the biggest improvement in customer satisfaction with the London underground was when they introduced dox matrix signs telling punters when the next train was due. It turned out the average punter was more dissatisfied if there was a 4 minute wait and they didn’t know that, compared to a punter who had a 9 minute wait but knew this.

    Absolutely they are trying to cerate a sense of uncertainty, because humans are wired in such a fashion that they are ok with a longer wait if they know how much time they have to commit. But once uncertainty reaches a threshold level then dissatisfaction means humans will look for other answers.

  13. I don’t understand why Murdoch and The Aus are constantly speculating about an early election. Constantly. Is it meant to undermine the PM in some way? Just ridiculous.

    Because Albanese has been in Election mode and campaigning since April?
    Have a read from a Labor leaning POV?
    https://thenightly.com.au/opinion/christopher-dore-gaslighting-anthony-albanese-is-cooked-hes-done-hes-the-wrong-man-for-the-top-job-c-14483484
    Albanese is divisive, it’s been the hallmark of his career in politics.

  14. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 11:53 am
    I don’t understand why Murdoch and The Aus are constantly speculating about an early election. Constantly. Is it meant to undermine the PM in some way? Just ridiculous.

    Because Albanese has been in Election mode and campaigning since April?
    Have a read from a Labor leaning POV?
    https://thenightly.com.au/opinion/christopher-dore-gaslighting-anthony-albanese-is-cooked-hes-done-hes-the-wrong-man-for-the-top-job-c-14483484
    Albanese is divisive, it’s been the hallmark of his career in politics.
    ===================================================

    I’m shocked, a former News Corp editor, of a number of Daily Ruperts, who doesn’t like a Labor PM. What will your next revelation be? That water is wet?

  15. Oh come on Entropy, you know if one of Rupert’s parrots says so it must be true. Nice try Bad, you need better sources mate.

  16. Petet Dutton going on a 5 day tour of WA to tell them how to suck eggs will go over like a lead balloon. Reminds me of the Greens caravan going to QLD and telling them to stop mining. That cost Labor a chunk of PVs they may never recover from. Go for it Peter Dutton. You talk and smell like Morrison and you’ll remind the WA punters why they abandoned the Liberal Party in droves. Sure a conservative correction is expected but Dutton has nothing positive to sell right now in WA.

  17. Herald Sun 01/08
    Before this Olympic campaign had even started, there had been internal scrutiny on the Matildas’ social media posts during their break in Europe – before they hit an almost four-week training camp in Marbella, Spain.
    _____________________
    Less social media and more focus on preparation would have been the way to go.

  18. Kirsdarkesays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 8:08 am
    @Lordbain
    Geology pretty much, but that’s not much use in Victoria since what they don’t tell you when you start is that you’re expected to move to a big mining area in outback Queensland, SA, NSW or WA afterward for a graduate level position and I wasn’t prepared to do that.
    _____________________
    I would be getting into gold. Especially in Victoria. There are hobbyists willing to pay to be pointed in the right direction for help on reading the ground.
    Google – Andrew Bales. He charges $350 for his 1 day course at Dunolly.

  19. Badthinker says:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 12:49 pm
    Dutts on a 5 day W.A. Tour starting same day as the Reynolds/Higgins stoush?
    That’s some coincidence

    —————–
    Could it be the start of Peter Dutton farewell as federal Leader of the Liberal Party tour ?

  20. Yeah Bad but he didn’t get the interest rate rates hike he was banking on to give his WA jaunt momentum. Bugger eh.

  21. Taylormadesays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 1:04 pm
    Kirsdarkesays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 8:08 am
    @Lordbain
    Geology pretty much, but that’s not much use in Victoria since what they don’t tell you when you start is that you’re expected to move to a big mining area in outback Queensland, SA, NSW or WA afterward for a graduate level position and I wasn’t prepared to do that.
    _____________________
    I would be getting into gold. Especially in Victoria. There are hobbyists willing to pay to be pointed in the right direction for help on reading the ground.
    Google – Andrew Bales. He charges $350 for his 1 day course at Dunolly.
    ======================================================

    Fine to take it up as a hobby but don’t expect to get rich from it. Like people you pay to hear how to become rich in any area. If they were any good at actually getting rich themselves. They probably wouldn’t need to be running paid courses on get rich schemes.

  22. Entropy – it’s a big day for HLR lore practioners such as urself. I hope ur ready for this next chapter ?

  23. I see Mark Binskin is reporting on the investigation into the deaths of Zomi Frankom and six other aid workers in a clearly marked vehicle in broad daylight.

    To help Binskin explain to the public what the Israeli military will want to say happened, I suggest using this handy US army template:

    “The team has been asked to prepare a full and complete account of the incident and identify its causes and victims,” General [inset name here] said in a news release.

    “The team will investigate the reports of civilian casualties and damages inflicted in this operation.” said General [insert name here].
    ‘They will also present their suggestions to the government on how such unfortunate incidents could be prevented in the future.” assured General [insert name here]
    General [insert name here] said “in the night in the fog of war, mistakes were made.”

    This comes from US Army Field Manual 103: How to say Mistakes Were Made.

    The Field Manual has been well tested and battle proven in Afghanistan, Iraq and Guantanamo Bay.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistakes_were_made

  24. Rex Douglassays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 8:57 am
    Anyway, boxing should be managed out of existence. Dumb ‘sport’.

    I don’t even think of it as a sport, though I can sort of understand why some men would get some kind of a kick out of punching their opponent’s lights out. But it amazes me that women like to do it too. I thought they would have more sense than that.

  25. Bystander
    They get a kick out of winning. If that involves beating the lights out of an apponent, so be it.

  26. You can see the true bias of the West Australian, begging and pleading for Spud to spend more time in and put the state first. They’re getting as bad as Sky after Dark.

  27. Women have very short elbow to wrist length, compared to their shoulder to elbow length, which makes blocking defence ineffective.
    This Algerian has long E to W compared to their S to E, which gives their blows terrific power that their opponents aren’t able to block and counter.
    Tried to Google some data to assist the lightly informed to get their heads around, but, wouldn’t you know it, Google is unhelpful on this particular subject?

  28. Tried to Google some data to assist the lightly informed to get their heads around, but, wouldn’t you know it, Google is unhelpful on this particular subject?
    ______
    Try ChatGPT or Copilot AI

  29. They get a kick out of winning. If that involves beating the lights out of an apponent, so be it.
    Strong whiff of Misogyny there, P,TMD?
    It’s just a sport, girls like sport, but this particular person appears to be a Sadist.

  30. Puff, the Magic Dragonsays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:16 pm
    Bystander
    They get a kick out of winning. If that involves beating the lights out of an apponent, so be it.

    Still sounds dumb to me, not to mention very violent. But each to his own I guess. .

  31. Badthinker
    Here’s some info for a start.
    https://ergocenter.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2017/09/Anthropometric-Summary-Data-Tables.pdf
    _____
    Anthropometric data does show differences in limb proportions between men and women. According to a summary of anthropometric data for U.S. adults, the average shoulder to elbow length for women is about **13.15 inches** (50th percentile), while the average elbow to fingertip length is about **17.24 inches** (50th percentile)¹. This indicates that the elbow to fingertip length is indeed longer than the shoulder to elbow length.

    For men, the average shoulder to elbow length is about **14.29 inches** (50th percentile), and the average elbow to fingertip length is about **18.90 inches** (50th percentile)¹. This shows a similar pattern where the elbow to fingertip length is longer than the shoulder to elbow length.

    These measurements suggest that both men and women have a longer elbow to fingertip length compared to their shoulder to elbow length, but the difference is more pronounced in women.

  32. Women have very short elbow to wrist length, compared to their shoulder to elbow length, which makes blocking defence ineffective.
    This Algerian has long E to W compared to their S to E, which gives their blows terrific power that their opponents aren’t able to block and counter.
    Tried to Google some data to assist the lightly informed to get their heads around, but, wouldn’t you know it, Google is unhelpful on this particular subject?

    Badthinker, there’s a much simpler reason for your inability to find any factual evidence for this than that Google is subtly conspiring to promote transgenderism.

  33. Try ChatGPT or Copilot AI
    Thanks BK, I’ll pass.
    The general idea, as I understand it, is, the humerus and Femur are much longer, compared to the Ulna and Tibia, repectively, in women than men.
    Personal opinion, there could be reproductive advantages there.
    Pretty obviously thyat’s not the case with the Algerian featherweight boxer.
    On Caster Semenya, medical examination revealed Semenya had no fallopian tubes or uterus, but did have undescended testes.
    edit:
    Badthinker, there’s a much simpler reason for your inability to find any factual evidence for this than that Google is subtly conspiring to promote transgenderism.
    William, I’m not suggesting Google is doing that, but evidence for Anthropometry that is accessible to the non-professional seems hard to find.

  34. Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 1:29 pm
    Entropy – it’s a big day for HLR lore practioners such as urself. I hope ur ready for this next chapter ?
    ==============================================

    I thought so too. Until Badthinker gave me the bad news that case will now be about Reynolds vs Channel 10 and News Corp. While i might be willing to be on the side of Channel 10. If News Corp is on that side too, it might be a bridge to far.

    Badthinkersays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 11:00 am
    Boerwar at 10:35 am
    Liberal v Liberal
    Reynolds is a Liberal Senator, who’s the other Liberal?
    I’d say it is Reynolds v Newscorp and Network Ten.

  35. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:31 pm
    Entropy thinks everything is about getting rich.
    ==============================================

    Is that what you got from my earlier post on the dangers of get rich schemes?

  36. Lordbainsays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:29 pm
    Entropy, in a goldrush its the man selling picks that gets rich
    =======================================================

    The saying possibly needs modernising to metal detectors now.

  37. I don’t believe that people should be doxxed, but I also don’t think people should be able to pseudonymously get away with the level of bigotry and racism with which Badthinker pollutes this site.

    It’s a quandary.

  38. BK:
    These measurements suggest that both men and women have a longer elbow to fingertip length compared to their shoulder to elbow length, but the difference is more pronounced in women.
    2 things: am talking Ratio, not average length, am talking elbow to wrist [joint], not elbow to fingertip.
    In any case, take any male and any female the same height, the female’s shoulder to elbow will be significantly longer than the males.

  39. Rewi at 2:51 pm
    I don’t believe that people should be doxxed, …
    Of course you don’t.
    Your post is a straight out threat.

  40. Rewisays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:51 pm
    I don’t believe that people should be doxxed, but I also don’t think people should be able to pseudonymously get away with the level of bigotry and racism with which Badthinker pollutes this site.

    It’s a quandary.
    ==========================================

    I’ll relieve you of this moral dilemma and do it myself. I believe he is “Gympie”.

  41. Badthinker says:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:54 pm

    Rewi at 2:51 pm
    I don’t believe that people should be doxxed, …
    Of course you don’t.
    Your post is a straight out threat.
    ___________________
    A bit yeah. But more like an appeal for someone else to do his dirty work.

  42. davesays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 3:05 pm
    Badthinker says:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:54 pm

    Rewi at 2:51 pm
    I don’t believe that people should be doxxed, …
    Of course you don’t.
    Your post is a straight out threat.
    ___________________
    A bit yeah. But more like an appeal for someone else to do his dirty work.
    ___________________
    I hope Rewi is more honourable than that.

  43. Entropysays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 2:45 pm
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 1:29 pm
    Entropy – it’s a big day for HLR lore practioners such as urself. I hope ur ready for this next chapter ?
    ==============================================

    I thought so too. Until Badthinker gave me the bad news that case will now be about Reynolds vs Channel 10 and News Corp. While i might be willing to be on the side of Channel 10. If News Corp is on that side too, it might be a bridge to far.
    ___________________________________
    That’s the problem with being a partisan Entropy – you always have to take a side.

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