Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  2. Looking more likely Andrew Willkie will stay in Clark for the upcoming election. Not sure how reliable these guys are so take it with a grain of salt.

  4. If the below item is true, I reckon Willkie has his eye on a Labor minority government where he can gets some real traction on several items close to his heart. Pokie machines and online gambling being one of those. I’d also expect him to try and get some form of carved out GST exempt funding for health or education.

  5. The consumer price index rose to 3.8% in the June quarter from a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has just said. That result compared with economists’ forecast of 3.8% and the March quarter rate of 3.6%.

    No way RBA raises cash rates… good

  7. Basically the Govt has baked in CPI expectations of high 3’s and committed to an inflation target of 2.5% which the RBA is saying it will achieve in mid26.

    Doubt the Chinese style fudging of CPI statistics which is planned through electricity rebates is going to do the trick.

    No rate hike but implies rates are not coming down anytime soon.

    The rate cuts and then election scenario is running out of time given they have a maximum of 9 months left.

  9. Out of sorts

    Been following Australian rules football in various forms for 60 something years.
    It’s tribunal processes, in various forms, and the tribunal decisions have nearly always been beyond my understanding.
    Based on early form the NACC is headed down the same path.

  10. Lordbain @ #55 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 11:07 am

    The consumer price index rose to 3.8% in the June quarter from a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has just said. That result compared with economists’ forecast of 3.8% and the March quarter rate of 3.6%.

    No way RBA raises cash rates… good

    Tell that to the Murdoch press. FMD.

  11. Lordbainsays:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 11:02 am
    [goll, posters like C@T, BW, etc were almost salivating that the NACC would wipe out entire swathes of Coalition politicians… and yet here we are]

    It’s an interesting list of coalition politicians who have disappeared from the political scene during the Morrison PMship, before the last election, at the last election and in some ways since Labor assumed office.

    It could be argued that the establishment of the NACC has indirectly had the effect of “wipe out” for some politicians and for appointed public service and statutory positions.

    FUBAR made a good point earlier about the “legal” requirements for prosecutions to be successful.

    And lastly, the onset of “salivating” from PB posters representing the entire political spectrum is common enough.

  12. Goll, I think you would be hard-pressed finding the average voter who sees “criminal charges and punishment” equal with “left political arena and got cushy job”

  13. The sound you hear is the groans of disappointed Liberals…

    Peter Hannam
    More on the consumer price index for June

    Financial markets assessed the chance of another rate rise as unlikely, sending the Australian dollar diving about 0.4 US cents to 64.9 US cents immediately after the release.

    The stock market also perked up about half a percentage point, building on morning gains, to be almost 1.1% higher for the day.

  14. Lars
    [The rate cuts and then election scenario is running out of time given they have a maximum of 9 months left.]

    Perhaps running out of time for the two major parties, but it is unlikely to handicap “self-interest”.

  17. The ‘introverted’ suspect was born in Cardiff after his family moved from Rwanda – then moved north to Merseyside about ten years ago.Daily Mail today.

    Split the difference.

    Inflation good news but its a lot higher than it should be .

  18. Labor had the power to freeze rents through National Cabinet. Instead they chose to spit in the face of Aus's 7 million renters & lock in unlimited rent increases. Today’s CPI data is the consequences. Rents (7.3%) are increasing at close to twice the rate of inflation (3.8%).— Max Chandler-Mather (@MChandlerMather) July 31, 2024

    Rough sleepers growing in numbers.

    The major parties are corrupted by the property industry.

  19. Inflation good news but its a lot higher than it should be .

    Yes.
    Followed by….
    Why?

    I know apple/cherry growers round these parts looking to get out of the game. Some selling to vines. Why is that? One of the sources of inflation this month is fruit. Yet the farmers are getting less and less profits from their crops.

    It isnt straightforward. It isnt simply that Colesworth are profiteering at the expense of smaller farmers. But it is partly that. Perhaps partly the lack of cooperation between the small fruit growers that, perversely, will lead to less competition. Partly that producing food is getting more expensive for reasons that interest rates would have no bearing over whatsoever. In fact, I have heard an argument that lower interest rates may well reduce prices in that sector.

    So my Q is, what happens if inflation stays at a steady 3-4% rather than a steady 2-3%?

  21. Lordbain @ #70 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 12:29 pm

    Yabba, kinda missing the point… or should I assume you are indeed collating the 2 as apples to apples?

    It is difficult to comprehend how someone, ie yourself, who continually pushes pie in the sky, unattainable, wishful thinking points of view, that are not supported by around 87% of actual voters, believes that they have any idea of what real voters actually think. Your reference to an ‘average voter’, as though you had any concept of what such a mythical being might ‘think’, is just inane.

  23. I mean, isnt it reasonable to assume climate change on its own will add 0.5% to annual inflation? Then add the short/medium term inflationary cost of the transition?

  24. yabba @ #72 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 12:40 pm

    It is difficult to comprehend how someone, ie yourself, who continually pushes pie in the sky, unattainable, wishful thinking points of view, that are not supported by around 87% of actual voters, believes that they have any idea of what real voters actually think.

    By the same argument, Labor “points of view” are not supported by around 70% of voters. Yet I am fairly sure many of the Labor Sandbaggers here would claim to know what “real voters actually think”.

    Are they also wrong? It would explain a lot.

  25. Just looking at the Essential Poll numbers, 37% of Australians would vote for Kamala Harris, 29% for Donald Trump, 20% would stay home and 15% would vote for someone else.

    It might depend upon the question asked. Also, did those who plumped for “Someone else” realise that they don’t get a preference?

    Anyway, we can ignore the 20% who are happy to sit it out. What the numbers say is that 29/80 = 36% of Australian votes would go to Trump.

    Now Australian polls say that the 2PP is about 50-50. The would-be Trump votes would be concentrated in the Coalition 50%. Say it’s 90% of would-be Trumpers. That would mean that about two thirds of those who vote for or preference the Coalition would vote for Donald Trump if they could.

    I’d take it all with a grain of salt, but it would seem that a Trump-like figure would do well in the Liberal Party, especially with 70% of the mainstream media acting as his cheer squad. I think that a far-right take-over of the Liberals is entirely possible.

  26. Thanks for confirming yabba that you think the average voter thinks “criminal charges, tired and potentially facing jailtime” is the same as “retire, new cushy job, end of discussion”. You truly must have your finger on the pulse…

  28. I received my electricity bill this week and no rebate. According to the government site it was to apply from July 1. And it was implied it would be automatically applied.
    Do you have to register?

  29. Aqualungsays:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 12:54 pm
    I received my electricity bill this week and no rebate. According to the government site it was to apply from July 1. And it was implied it would be automatically applied.
    Do you have to register?
    —————
    No it just come off your next bill.

  30. Team Katich @ #74 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 12:44 pm

    I mean, isnt it reasonable to assume climate change on its own will add 0.5% to annual inflation? Then add the short/medium term inflationary cost of the transition?

    More like 1% to 3% according to this article …

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-is-exacerbating-inflation-worldwide/

    The result: Rising temperatures could increase global inflation by as much as 1 percent every year until 2035, the researchers wrote. When they examined food inflation specifically, they found that future warming could drive up prices by as much as 3 percent.

    Probably just as well climate change doesn’t really exist, isn’t it?

  31. Here we go….
    https://www.axios.com/2024/03/25/climate-change-inflation
    “The study shows that food inflation could increase by as much as 3 percentage points per year in the next decade due to “climateflation,” while climate factors cause overall inflation to climb by between 0.3 percentage points per year to about 1.2 percentage points per year.”
    And….
    “Some of the biggest inflation increases overall are likely to be seen in already-warmer countries, the study finds.”
    Is the 2-3% target outdated?

  33. Ok. Thanks MexicanBeemer.
    A bit misleading to say it applies from July 1 if a bill received in the last week of July misses out. So my first rebate should be November. That’s a long way from July 1 but I suppose that’s the energy companies fault.

  34. ‘Team Katich says:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 12:57 pm

    Here we go….
    https://www.axios.com/2024/03/25/climate-change-inflation
    “The study shows that food inflation could increase by as much as 3 percentage points per year in the next decade due to “climateflation,” while climate factors cause overall inflation to climb by between 0.3 percentage points per year to about 1.2 percentage points per year.”
    And….
    “Some of the biggest inflation increases overall are likely to be seen in already-warmer countries, the study finds.”
    Is the 2-3% target outdated?’
    ———————
    Which was the point of my triggering this meme. However, Stooge remained strongly convinced that climate change will be deflationary.
    What we really need to sort this out here is two economists.

  35. Tourists might have to travel a bit less, not in order to generate fewer CO2 emissions because they obviously could not give a FF about CO2 emissions, but in order to maintain their generally high emissions diets.

    Choices, choices.

  36. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 12:49 pm

    Just looking at the Essential Poll numbers, 37% of Australians would vote for Kamala Harris, 29% for Donald Trump, 20% would stay home and 15% would vote for someone else.

    It might depend upon the question asked. Also, did those who plumped for “Someone else” realise that they don’t get a preference?
    ….’
    The person with the dead brain worm is a possible.

  37. Boerwar @ #84 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 1:03 pm

    ‘Team Katich says:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 12:57 pm

    Here we go….
    https://www.axios.com/2024/03/25/climate-change-inflation
    “The study shows that food inflation could increase by as much as 3 percentage points per year in the next decade due to “climateflation,” while climate factors cause overall inflation to climb by between 0.3 percentage points per year to about 1.2 percentage points per year.”
    And….
    “Some of the biggest inflation increases overall are likely to be seen in already-warmer countries, the study finds.”
    Is the 2-3% target outdated?’
    ———————
    Which was the point of my triggering this meme. However, Stooge remained strongly convinced that climate change will be deflationary.
    What we really need to sort this out here is two economists.

    Oh, I missed that. Just doing drive-by’s atm.

  38. Team Katich @ #68 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 12:29 pm

    Inflation good news but its a lot higher than it should be .

    Yes.
    Followed by….
    Why?

    I know apple/cherry growers round these parts looking to get out of the game. Some selling to vines. Why is that? One of the sources of inflation this month is fruit. Yet the farmers are getting less and less profits from their crops.

    It isnt straightforward. It isnt simply that Colesworth are profiteering at the expense of smaller farmers. But it is partly that. Perhaps partly the lack of cooperation between the small fruit growers that, perversely, will lead to less competition. Partly that producing food is getting more expensive for reasons that interest rates would have no bearing over whatsoever. In fact, I have heard an argument that lower interest rates may well reduce prices in that sector.

    So my Q is, what happens if inflation stays at a steady 3-4% rather than a steady 2-3%?

    Where are you based TK?

    It’s been many many years, but we used to grow apples. When the government paid us to to push them out we took the money and ran. This was in the 80s, and the massive apple industry had crashed in Tasmania when the UK joined the EC and got apples from more local sources.

  40. The metal shell for each of the Hunter Frigates is costing $4bn a pop!The Albanese Labor Government is overseeing one of the most expensive ships ever built.For that price, you would hope the thing works, but it's heavy and unpowered.This is not how you defend Australia. pic.twitter.com/VIAEEWg3Wl— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) July 31, 2024

    Can’t afford to lift people out of poverty, apparently…

  41. steve Davis

    Netanyahu isn’t stopping until he ‘finishes the job’ , despite the menacing Australian wet lettuce leaves.

  42. Meh.

    The Greens have a 100% record of dissing every single defence acquisition.

    The Greens also want to destroy the ADF.

    Idiots.

  45. MI – Adelaide Hills.
    Been speaking to Lenswood growers.
    Many rely on selling to the local fruit and veg peeps and the big markets.

    I have this argument with Tassie peeps all the time (and some Sydney peeps too who are crazy enough to think Bilpin apples are good). Lenswood apples are really something. But man, SA spend a small fortune helping them by keeping fruit fly out (mostly).

  47. The assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran will no doubt up the ante. Mossad is probably responsible for it but has yet to confirm the same & probably won’t. No chance now of a truce.

  48. What we really need to sort this out here is two economists.

    How? Ask two economists and you’ll get three different answers.

  50. If you are crazy enough to think there will ever be a truce while Iran does not acknowledge Israels right to exist .Israel will bring the war directly to Iran if they need to.

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