Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 20 of 31
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  1. Micksays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 11:03 am
    To give this perspective some cover, I’ll still give them my first preference anyway, I’ll just be disappointed.
    _____________________
    No need to give yourself cover.
    Just say what you think and leave it at that. If people don’t like it, then tough titties.

  2. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:55 am
    Hey Bw
    Remind me who Indonesia “captured West Irian” from.
    =================================================

    Some benign European colonisers?
    Sweet people like Raymond Westerling, whom butter wouldn’t even melt in their mouth.

  3. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:11 am
    Slava Ukraini!

    Ukraine win gold after protest threatened Olympic berth

    Ukraine has won its first gold medal of the Paris Olympics with victory over South Korea in the women’s team saber fencing final.
    ==================================================

    Well done Ukraine. Nearly as good but not quite. As knocking the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don. Off its podium in dry dock.

    Note: Not sure if the submarine was in dry dock or just anchored at harbour though.

  4. Entropy says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 11:36 am

    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:55 am
    Hey Bw
    Remind me who Indonesia “captured West Irian” from.
    =================================================

    Some benign European colonisers?
    Sweet people like Raymond Westerling, whom butter wouldn’t even melt in their mouth.
    =================================
    ===================================
    You are a card OC. Always living in the past. Always bogged in past tropes. The world has moved on.

    The issue was whether Indonesia was busy doing invasions of other countries. Under the rampant nationalism and expansionism of Suharto it was doing just that.

    The west Irianese then had about as much in common with Indonesia as did the English and Indigenous Australians. At most a tiny corner of West Irian had been part of a petty sultanate several centuries ago. And those sultanates were never under the control of any of the pre-Dutch Java-based Indonesian empires.

    The West Irianese have suffered terrible consequences from being invaded by the Indonesians ever since. This is why China’s grab of bits of Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Vietnam and the Philippines matter. Not to mention the fate of Tibetans and of Hong Kongers. Let’s not forget the threat to invade and conquer the vibrant democracy of Taiwan. Japan and Russia are clearly unfinished business. I find the denial of all this a bit bemusing. The thing about Xi and Putin is that they do not have the slightest compunction about invading another country. Why pretend they don’t? Head meet sand.

    I have zip support for Dutch colonialism.

    Westerling was a war criminal and instead of being protected by complicit superiors in the army, the remnant colonial elites and successive Dutch governments, he should have been jailed for life.

    Neither Dutch colonialism nor Westerling justify the Indonesian conquest of West Irian.

  5. Of course there was a huge benefit to Australia of Indonesia’s conquest and ongoing colonization of West Irian.

    It gifted us Bolt!

    I am sure Sukarno took that into account.

  6. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 12:29 pm
    Entropy says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 11:36 am

    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:55 am
    Hey Bw
    Remind me who Indonesia “captured West Irian” from.
    =================================================

    Some benign European colonisers?
    Sweet people like Raymond Westerling, whom butter wouldn’t even melt in their mouth.
    =================================
    ===================================
    You are a card OC. Always living in the past. Always bogged in past tropes. The world has moved on.

    The issue was whether Indonesia was busy doing invasions of other countries. Under the rampant nationalism and expansionism of Suharto it was doing just that.
    =======================================================

    While i don’t support West Papua occupation by either the Dutch or Indonesia. It should be an independent nation or a joint nation with Papua New Guinea. I believe the President at time of Indonesian expansion into there was Sukarno and not Suharto. Though continued suppression of resistance to the 1962 annexation declaration certainly occurred after Suharto became President in 1968.

  7. on Triersays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 1:01 pm
    Do you support Bougainville independence from png entropy ?
    =================================================

    Do you Lars? I’m not the UN and so want make a statement on who i believe each bit of territory on the earth should be owned by. My statement on West Papua was relevant to the discussion at hand. Your question is not.

  8. At some point a territory has to be viable as an independent entity Entropy.

    It’s still debatable that East Timor is viable let alone Irian Jaya or Bouganville.

  9. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 1:21 pm
    At some point a territory has to be viable as an independent entity Entropy.

    It’s still debatable that East Timor is viable let alone Irian Jaya or Bouganville.
    ===================================================

    Thanks for pointing out your nonspecific stance on this matter. As i assume that is what “debatable” implies. So in the same level of disclosure. I’ll state my stance on Bouganville to the level i stated it for West Papua.

    With my West Papua relevant territory status part of the statement being this:

    “While i don’t support West Papua occupation by either the Dutch or Indonesia. It should be an independent nation or a joint nation with Papua New Guinea.”

    My statement on Bouganville is this:

    While i don’t support Bouganville occupation by either the Dutch or Indonesia. It should be an independent nation or a joint nation with Papua New Guinea.

  10. Gambling giant Sportsbet hosted Anthony Albanese, then opposition leader, for a private function at the National Press Club in Canberra just weeks before the 2022 federal election campaign.

    Sportsbet – which is owned by Ireland-based Flutter Entertainment and boasts 42 per cent of Australia’s wagering market – “sponsored” and paid for the dinner on February 9, 2022, according to multiple sources.

    Sportsbet chief executive Barni Evans joined Mr Albanese at the dinner, which came amid growing calls for political parties to clamp down on gambling ads, particularly during sporting broadcasts.

    The dinner was not declared on Mr Albanese parliamentary register of interests, the purpose of which is to make public any “interests which may conflict, or may be seen to conflict” with a politician’s public duty. The threshold for reporting hospitality is $300.

    The revelation comes after The Australian Financial Review reported Responsible Wagering Australia – the gambling industry peak body – last year hosted Communications Minister Michelle Rowland at a lavish lunch at high-end Melbourne restaurant Society on her birthday.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-wined-and-dined-by-betting-giant-sportsbet-20231110-p5ej46

    Really sleazy stuff from Labor re gambling reforms. Appalling.

    So much for honouring Peta Murphy.

  11. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 3:26 pm
    ===============================================

    Didn’t you post that article in November 2023?
    Good to see you believe in recycling i guess.

  12. Federal Labor banked almost $600,000 from gambling companies last year from its pay-for-access subscription packages for companies and executives, which fly under the radar because they are not technically donations.

    Payments from Sportsbet, Tabcorp and pubs and pokies giant Endeavour Group along with ClubsNSW appeared to be part of at least $5 million that flowed into the party’s coffers from the Federal Labor Business Forum, according to analysis of Australian Electoral Commission data.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-rakes-in-5m-of-hidden-money-from-big-corporates-20240212-p5f44c

    I didn’t vote for them.

  13. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 3:37 pm
    ================================================

    Now we get a February 2024 article. Did you just take out a subscription at the AFR? So just gained access to their articles?

  14. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 3:53 pm
    Lordbain

    Labor protecting the revenue streams of Stokes (7), Bruce Gordon (9) and Murdoch (Foxtel) …?
    ========================================================

    LOL, Bruce Gordon. After you two just posted 2 links to the AFR and one to the Brisbane Times. Who do you think owns the media you have just been promoting?

  15. I wonder if Lachlan Murdoch discussed the gambling reforms with Albo the other night over dinner at the Oz 60th anniversary party …?

  16. from the Guardian live blog

    ‘Penny Wong warns Australians in Lebanon they must leave immediately

    The foreign minister, Penny Wong, has again reiterated warnings to Australians to leave Lebanon immediately while flights are available.
    …’
    —————————–

  17. Entropy is Bougainville occupied by the Dutch or Indonesia?

    I think I am right in saying the last colonial occupiers were Australia who left in 1975.

    As Gough Whitlam famously said with reference to PNG independence “Mother decides when the child comes off the teat”

  18. “ Kevin Bell, a former Victorian Supreme Court justice, says it’s worse than a crisis; it’s a socio-economic and human rights disaster.”

    Let’s guess what this guy is talking about.

    “ unfolding. I have chosen the word ‘disaster’, but if it continues much longer, it will be a catastrophe.”

    Any guesses?

    “ Bell says the values underpinning our modern housing system, where property is viewed as a commodity and instrument of private gain (where speculative investment is encouraged), rather than a home and human right, is a “national disgrace”.

    “The economic value of housing as an investment has been allowed to dominate the social value of housing as a home,”

    Is he talking about housing?

    “I was born in 1954 to young parents who had eight children. Hundreds of thousands of houses were built by the government that low-middle-income families like ours could afford to rent or buy.”

    I think he is talking about housing but I’m sure the market will eventually sort it out with enough billions of dollars tax breaks to investors.

    In a time of a national catastrophe Albo is the worst pathetic do nothing Labor PM ever

  19. Rex Douglas @ #967 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 3:37 pm

    Federal Labor banked almost $600,000 from gambling companies last year from its pay-for-access subscription packages for companies and executives, which fly under the radar because they are not technically donations.

    Payments from Sportsbet, Tabcorp and pubs and pokies giant Endeavour Group along with ClubsNSW appeared to be part of at least $5 million that flowed into the party’s coffers from the Federal Labor Business Forum, according to analysis of Australian Electoral Commission data.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-rakes-in-5m-of-hidden-money-from-big-corporates-20240212-p5f44c

    I didn’t vote for them.

    And Labor will never lose an election because you don’t. 😐

  20. Lordbainsays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 4:35 pm
    Entropy, how am I promoting it?
    ==============================================

    You put a link to it. Which was encouraging people to enter the site. Though when i did a big banner appeared. So i couldn’t read anything at all.

    To be fair my comment was more directed at Rex than you though. You were just collateral damage really. As you never made a comment suggesting how bad Nine Media was. Following a number of posts which were just quotes from Nine Media linked articles. It was only Rex that did that.

  21. Entropy and Dave

    I’m referring to the Stokes, Gordon and Murdoch tv platforms, which is where they prey on viewers during sports programming.

    That’s where the danger is – and that’s the revenue that Labor is apparently protecting for the media moguls, especially Murdoch (Foxtel).

    I’m sure you’re deeply concerned, despite your loyalty to Labor.

  22. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:02 pm
    Entropy and Dave

    I’m referring to the Stokes, Gordon and Murdoch tv platforms, which is where they prey on viewers during sports programming.
    ==============================================

    If you say so. That specificity certainly wasn’t obvious from your initial post though.

    Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 3:53 pm
    Lordbain

    Labor protecting the revenue streams of Stokes (7), Bruce Gordon (9) and Murdoch (Foxtel) …?

  23. Pueosays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:17 pm
    “I was born in 1954 to young parents who had eight children.”

    There’s your problem.

    Look at them, bloody Catholics, filling the bloody world up with bloody people they can’t afford to bloody feed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDBjsFAyiwA
    =====================================================

    It is Adelaide, so it is not like place is over populated though.

  24. As Gough Whitlam famously said with reference to PNG independence “Mother decides when the child comes off the teat”

    Like so many famous quotes I learn about on this forum, I can find no record of this one.

  25. Your right William I googled it just now – couldn’t find it anywhere.

    I didnt invent it – maybe its false memory on my part.

  26. William Bowesays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:24 pm
    As Gough Whitlam famously said with reference to PNG independence “Mother decides when the child comes off the teat”

    Like so many famous quotes I learn about on this forum, I can find no record of this one.
    ================================================

    I’m pretty sure it is in the the book “The Wit of Whitlam”. I’m not just saying that to defend Lars. As i suspect you know.

    Though i think Lars’ wording of it is not an exact match with the original quote.
    I believe a local told Whitlam something like”We are like a baby you take off the teat”. Which Whitlam replied something like ” The mother decides when the baby is weaned, not the baby”.

  27. davesays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:40 pm
    Which is pretty close to what Lars quoted. Well done Lars.
    =================================================

    That’s from my memory too. My brother borrowed my copy of “The Wit of Whitlam” and hasn’t returned it. So i can’t confirm it is in that book for sure. Also i think maybe breast and not teat was used?

  28. davesays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:42 pm
    I’ve just consulted the Wit of Whitlam and Lars is spot on, if not the exact wording.
    =======================================

    Thanks Dave, would you mind typing it out for us. Both what the PNG person says and Whitlams reply, thanks.

  29. davesays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:53 pm
    I’m sure an apology will soon be forthcoming from those who doubted Lars’ honesty.
    ============================================

    That’s pushing it a bit. I’ve tried to find Whitlam quotes from that book on the internet in the past. With little success. Even to find the full “only the impotent are pure” quote. I had to find an archive which had Whitlam’s hand written copy of that speech copied init.

  30. William Bowe @ #987 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 5:24 pm

    As Gough Whitlam famously said with reference to PNG independence “Mother decides when the child comes off the teat”

    Like so many famous quotes I learn about on this forum, I can find no record of this one.

    I recall Gough said wtte – Independence for PNG is also an issue for Australia and Australia no longer wishes to be a colonial power.

    Gough said this in late 1974/ early 1975 when PNG was dragging its feet about selecting an actual date for Independence.

    I was working in PNG in 1975 during Independence and for years after.

    Sir John Guise the first Governor General of PNG said in his speech declaring Independence – “We are lowering the Australian Flag – we are not tearing it down “.

    I heard that speech live.

    A minor point of order – I am not the “dave” who has been a bit prominent here lately recently. LOL 🙂

  31. The Greens has provided the use of office space to a group that publicly asserts Israel has “no right to exist”, prompting outrage from Jewish groups. Tasmanian Palestine Advocacy Network has posted a statement on its Facebook page that calls on Israelis to leave Israel, which it says is “an abomination that has no right to exist”. “It is the ethical duty of every person who identifies as ‘israeli’ (sic) to resist also,” says one of these statements, which the group attributes to a pro-Palestine writer.
    “Leave ‘israel’ (sic) – make the settler colonial project untenable and unsustainable. Denounce it, refuse to call it ‘israel’ (sic) or any iteration that denies Palestinian existance (sic). “Call it for what it is: a settler-colonial abomination that has no right to exist.”
    According to other Facebook posts, the group late last month held a “crafting day to paint new signs for our weekly rallies” at the Tasmanian Greens’ office in ­Argyle Street, North Hobart.
    This post thanks the party and Greens senator Nick McKim “for loaning us this space” on a regular basis. “Your regular support of our crafting days is extremely ­appreciated,” the group posted on July 16. These events were about “refreshing our stock of signs for folks to use” at protests, it said.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-support-for-fanatics-endangers-jews-council-of-australian-jewry/news-story/dce37875cdca78fa43a7efa4c652894e?amp

  32. dave @ #997 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:08 pm

    William Bowe @ #987 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 5:24 pm

    As Gough Whitlam famously said with reference to PNG independence “Mother decides when the child comes off the teat”

    Like so many famous quotes I learn about on this forum, I can find no record of this one.

    I recall Gough said wtte – Independence for PNG is also an issue for Australia and Australia no longer wishes to be a colonial power.

    Gough said this in late 1974/ early 1975 when PNG was dragging its feet about selecting an actual date for Independence.

    I was working in PNG in 1975 during Independence and for years after.

    Sir John Guise the first Governor General of PNG said in his speech declaring Independence – “We are lowering the Australian Flag – we are not tearing it down “.

    I heard that speech live.

    A minor point of order – I am not the “dave” who has been a bit prominent here lately recently. LOL 🙂

    Thank goodness for that, dave. You are nice dave. 🙂

    https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/The_Wit_of_Whitlam/FjrZBQAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover

    That is the link to Gough’s words from his PNG trip.

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