Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 22 of 31
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  1. Mavis says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 7:23 pm
    Support for the Voice went south once Dutton entered the fray.

    Was he meant to just lie down and take it? Ignore the fact that he is the Opposition Leader representing both the LNP and those who voted for them?

  2. ”Any discussion on housing that doesnt address the forces that incentivise housing as an investment/commodity is a waste of time.”

    Absolutely.

  3. ABC News Radio playing Dutton’s comments re Albo’s Voice 2.0 as he puts it, on high rotation.
    The ABC loves Peter Dutton.

  4. If you cut back on international students our universities will go bust. How are you going to address that consequence ?

  5. Labor disappointing in a few regards.

    Could do a lot better.

    The alternative in respect to those matters?

    Pfffffttttppppsss!

    Take your pick!

  6. ‘Sandman says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:27 pm

    In 2023 Australia recognised 14,000 refugees and resettled 15,000 which was 1.04 % of all refugee resettlements world wide. I think we are capable of finding other ways of addressing our housing crisis without scapegoating benefactors of humanitarian refuge in Australia. Or am I deluded ?’
    ———————————
    No you are not deluded.
    There are a number of drivers of a shortage of housing.
    If you want to leave any of them out of any analysis that is entirely up to you.

  7. Oh dear …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-04/pm-discards-commitment-to-set-up-makarrata-body/104181696

    The federal government does not intend to create a national commission to lead “truth-telling” about First Nations history, departing from its pre-election promise to do so.

    A Makarrata commission, named after a Yolŋu word for coming together after a struggle, is the “culmination” of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

    Its intended purpose is to oversee both truth-telling and treaty-making between governments and First Nations.

    But despite an election night promise to enact the statement in “full”, and budget funding to establish a Makarrata commission, the government’s enthusiasm for a commission had cooled by the time of the failed Voice referendum and its status has been unclear.

    On Saturday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to drop the commitment to the commission by denying it had ever been made.

    “That’s not what we have proposed,” he told the ABC’s Insiders program during an interview at the Garma Festival.

    “What we’ve proposed is Makarrata just being the idea of coming together.”

    Oh Albo … 🙁

  8. Pied pipersays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:37 pm
    Australians first .
    ==================================

    It doesn’t surprise me you would vote Australia First. Though do they still exist as a party?

  9. Once “The Voice” was defeated that was the end for any indigenous rights/commitments etc for the future. It was as obvious as Duttons baldy head.

  10. 》There are a number of drivers of a shortage of housing.
    If you want to leave any of them out of any analysis that is entirely up to you.

    Would you say people with extra land who develop it should be congratulated? Or would you find some reason to complain about them?

  11. At the end of the day, these discussions of refugees stealing housing capacity are simply smokescreens for the 2 parties that claim you can somehow keep housing prices high, while also increasing volume or housing capacity…. somehow

  12. FUBARsays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 9:34 pm
    Wealth creation for everyone, except those who are conservative voters, of course.
    =================================================

    Yeah right, because all that vast housing wealth is disproportionately owned by left wing and not conservative voters. Just out of interest what planet are you living on.

  13. Friendly reminder that for the 2023 FY Labor received the following donations from the following sectors;

    Fossil Fuel Industry:$ 790,705
    Developers and Property Industry 729,438
    Banking and Finance Industry $ 1,631,510
    Pharmaceutical Corporations $ 901,420
    Gambling – Tobacco – Alcohol $ 845,521
    Defence Industry $ 230,850

    I wonder what influence this money has on their policies…

  14. “ For more than a century, Vienna has accorded political priority to the provision of affordable housing. Close to sixty percent of its inhabitants live in municipal housing estates or in dwellings subsidized by the City of Vienna.”

    https://www.wienerwohnen.at/wiener-gemeindebau/municipal-housing-in-vienna.html

    I guess the are not living in slums because Vienna has been named the world’s most liveable city for the third year running according to Economist’s annual index. Renters pay a third of what they do in London or Paris.

  15. Been There says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 9:36 pm

    I have never said Israel doesn’t now want the war. Keep up. I was responding to Boerwar’s claim that Hezbollah doesn’t want war with Israel.

  16. https://socialhousing.wien/tools/flat-allocation-criteria

    “Basic requirements

    -Minimum age of 18 years at the moment of signing the tenancy contract
    -Minimum registration of two years at the current address in Vienna as primary residence
    -Austrian citizenship or equivalent
    -Income below a defined threshold”

    So new migrants not allowed? Certainly helps when the clear demand signal says that that you can’t just move to Austria and expect a subsidised house.

    Seems like Austria gets it.

  17. Lordbain: surely we would be better off financing parties in election year and banning these donations. You can’t tell the average observer that these big donations don’t have any influence on decisions.
    Qld Labor recently changed a levy rate for mining companies that meant extra billions into the coffers. Donations like mentioned here are peanuts if you can get decisions like that reversed or reduced.
    Which Party / Parties would oppose it?

  18. Been There says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 10:29 pm

    What other country in the world is expected to suffer the existential threats and continual attacks and do nothing?

  19. Do nothing?

    Annihilate a population?

    That’s not what I would call doing nothing.

    Anyway, shouldn’t have started, moratorium.

    Apologies WB and all, goodnight!

  20. Herald Sun 04/08
    Voters are abandoning the Allan Government amid concerns over health spending cuts, with a new poll revealing the Coalition and Labor are neck and neck for the first time in almost seven years.
    The survey from bipartisan pollster RedBridge reveals just 31 per cent of Victorians would vote for the ALP if an election was held now, while support for John Pesutto’s opposition has surged to 40 per cent.
    _____________________
    New Redbridge poll for Vic.
    50/50 after preferences.
    Might be time to ditch the SRL.

  21. FUBAR:

    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 9:05 pm

    Mavis says:

    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 7:23 pm

    Support for the Voice went south once Dutton entered the fray.

    [‘Was he meant to just lie down and take it? Ignore the fact that he is the Opposition Leader representing both the LNP and those who voted for them?’]

    Around the time the referendum was announced support for it was circa 62%.* It started to decline when Dutton’s partisanship came to the fore. Had he backed it, there was a chance it would’ve got up. But
    no, he made the matter hyper-political, with predictable results.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-tipping-point-support-for-voice-falls-below-a-majority-20230612-p5dfto.html

  22. Stil sticking to my prediction
    In a week or so newspoll if it doesnt show the lib/nats combined primary vote of 40%+ and be consistent over a 3 month period , leadership fate for Peter Dutton, whether he stays as federal liberal party leader beyond October this year

  23. Scott,

    Sorry I don’t see it. Sure the TPP is pretty much status quo at the moment, but Dutton is actually more popular than Albo on the netsat measure. Plus he has been fairly successful at holding the coalition together. There’s also the small matter of who would they switch to – Angus Taylor???

    Not defending Dutton at all, he’s absolutely horrible and I’m sure would be an absolutely terrible PM, but I reckon he’ll lead the libs to the election

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    “If this government is forgettable, Albanese is counting on you remembering the last one”, says Sean Kelly in this assessment of the upcoming election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-this-government-is-forgettable-albanese-is-counting-on-you-remembering-the-last-one-20240804-p5jz9y.html
    According to Laura Tingle, election timing no longer swings on an elusive rate cut.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/election-timing-no-longer-swings-on-an-elusive-rate-cut-20240731-p5jy5b
    Ross Gittins says that there’s a good case for cutting interest rates ASAP.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/there-s-a-good-case-for-cutting-interest-rates-asap-20240804-p5jzax.html
    Australians should expect more relief at the supermarket checkout as the rate of food inflation slows to pre-COVID-19 levels, a development that could influence the Reserve Bank’s looming decision on interest rates. Decreased growth in the price of poultry, breakfast cereals, cheese and other items has dragged food inflation down to 3.3 per cent over the past 12 months, lower than the overall inflation rate of 3.8 per cent, reports Shane Wright.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/food-inflation-plummets-bringing-cost-of-living-relief-and-a-challenge-for-the-rba-20240802-p5jyyo.html
    You need to be careful of jingoistic self-congratulation. But there is something about Australians and populism that just does not gel. Part of it is a tendency not to take ourselves too seriously, writes Greg Craven in an interesting contribution.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/why-populism-doesnt-work-in-australia/news-story/8fbc904878b437afba3fff430ef7f5f4?amp=
    The NSW Labor government will appoint an administrator to the embattled construction division of the state branch of the CFMEU, using court powers and legislation to ensure a thorough clean-up of the scandal-plagued union. Alexandra Smith reports that today the Minns government will seek orders from the Industrial Court of NSW to appoint an administrator and will introduce a bill to parliament, which returns on Tuesday from its long winter break, to amend the NSW Industrial Relations Act to confirm the powers of the administrator.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-two-ways-nsw-labor-is-acting-to-clean-up-scandal-plagued-state-cfmeu-20240804-p5jzb2.html
    The Australian Federal Police has found more than 2000 Australian-owned cryptocurrency wallets were compromised by offshore scammers poised to steal millions of dollars in digital assets. Ronald Mizen reports that the trove was discovered as part of a multi-nation effort dubbed Operation Spincaster, the local arm of which was run out of the AFP-led Joint Policing Cybercrime Co-ordination Centre, also known as the JPC3.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/afp-discovers-2000-compromised-australian-cryptocurrency-wallets-20240801-p5jyjo
    ABC chair Kim Williams has criticised the priorities of the organisation’s digital news platforms, saying lifestyle stories were given too much prominence on the web and mobile sites at the expense of hard news. Calum Jaspan tells us that in his strongest critique about news output at the public broadcaster since becoming chair in March, Williams, in an address to Radio National staff late last month, delivered a scathing assessment of the ABC’s failure to prioritise globally important news stories such as the Gaza war and the NATO summit, and foreign and state politics to its online audiences. Fair enough!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/i-make-no-apology-kim-williams-criticises-abc-website-priorities-in-staff-briefing-20240802-p5jyyw.html
    Labor has vowed to crack down on anti-competitive behaviour and make it easier for new airlines to get access to Australia’s busiest airport, as it makes its first move following the collapse of Rex, writes Rosie Lewis.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/labor-opens-tender-process-to-crack-down-on-anticompetitive-behaviour-at-sydney-airport-after-rexs-collapse/news-story/2a7da53a5e7b50fe585a3d97836bcaf9?amp=
    Not-for-profit hospital operators want to overhaul how they negotiate controversial funding deals with health insurers, including the right to collectively boycott Australia’s five largest health insurers, as private hospitals fight to ensure their survival. Michael Smith says that Catholic Health Australia, which represents 63 private hospitals, has asked the competition regulator to approve a new provision that would stop Medibank Private, Bupa, NIB, HCF and HBF Health from negotiating individual funding contracts with hospitals while collective talks are under way.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/hospitals-seek-right-to-boycott-big-insurers-from-funding-talks-20240801-p5jyeb
    Apparently, “calling out” ABC journalists, in particular, by labelling the practice of reporting the facts as “biased”, is becoming increasingly fashionable. Also de rigueur is the long-time Right-wing tradition of muddying the waters by insisting something is the opposite of what it is or presenting “both sides” on indisputable facts, such as climate change — a scientific reality for which there are not “two sides”, any more than there are two sides to gravity, writes Michelle Pini.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/abc-truth-bombs-from-ita-buttrose-and-peter-van-onselen,18833
    At the heart of Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch’s bid to change the family’s “irrevocable” trust is an idea Fox and News Corp are more valuable as conservative outlets, writes Sam Buckingham-Jones as Murdoch’s kids argue over inheritances.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/murdoch-thinks-fox-news-corp-are-worth-more-right-wing-is-he-right-20240725-p5jwm8
    The ritual reading of prayers at the start of every sitting day is offensive to many, and may even be a breach of the Constitution, posits David Salter.
    https://johnmenadue.com/parliamentary-prayers-are-they-legal/
    David Swan reports that independent MPs have accused the federal Labor government of kowtowing to gambling companies and betraying the legacy of one of its MPs, the late Peta Murphy, after this masthead flagged proposed changes that would cap, rather than ban, gambling advertisements. They have a point methinks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/labor-accused-of-cop-out-over-gambling-ad-changes-20240804-p5jzaj.html
    “While Australian taxpayers are pouring $4.7B into the US submarine industrial base as part of the AUKUS deal, there is scant detail on how the money is spent. But Kevin Rudd has studied it closely. Or has he?”, askes Rex Patrick.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/studious-ambassador-rudd-and-his-big-careful-aukus-shipyard-cost-study/
    Colin Kruger writes about Rumin8, a start-up company which shows great promise in drastically reducing methane emissions from meat and milk production.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/entrepreneurship/the-australian-enterprise-trying-to-curb-the-methane-belched-by-livestock-20240801-p5jyes.html
    Keir Starmer has issued a stark warning to “far-right thugs”, saying they will regret taking part in violent disorder after riots escalated on Sunday, and a mob attempted to set fire to a hotel housing asylum seekers. The prime minister said the violent rioters targeting people because of their skin colour will be swiftly convicted, as he said “all right-minded people should condemn” the disorder. “Be in no doubt: those who have participated in this violence will face the full force of the law,” he said. “The police will be making arrests. Individuals will be held on remand. Charges will follow. And convictions will follow. I guarantee you will regret taking part in this disorder.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/04/far-right-thugs-will-be-swiftly-brought-to-justice-keir-starmer-vows
    We know Trump is weird but it’s time for the Democrats to get creative with the insults, writes Catherine Bennett.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/04/donald-trump-kamala-harris-democrats
    Republicans are freaking out that their grotesque policies and bizarre politicians are now being called weird by Democrats, says Arwa Mahdawi.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/03/democrats-call-republicans-weird

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir


    David Rowe

    Megan Herbert

    Jim Pavlidis

    Some gifs from Glen Le Lievre
    https://x.com/i/status/1819882874985939364
    https://x.com/i/status/1819533860541215053
    Peter Broelman

    Spooner

    From the US




    Cagle cartoons https://cagle.com/cartoons/

  25. As indicated by the Redbridge Group’s polling in Victoria (reported by William in another thread), Labor looks to be struggling across the country ATM. The party did well during the COVID era in establishing a brand for itself as being more competent and straight-talking than the Coalition. Andrews and McGowan were at the forefront of this movement, and Albo rose to power partly on their shoulders.

    Malinauskas and Minns are still doing what they can to keep the brand alive, but the Miles, Allan and Albanese governments are not going so well. Likewise the NT government, and it’s probably better not to talk about the current state of the Tasmanian ALP. In the cases of Allen and Miles, there is clearly an “It’s Time” factor in play. But there are also issues related to policy and ideology.

    I’ll admit I’m biased: I greatly prefer Labor governments with strong leaders who come from one of the Right factions of the party: Hawke, Keating, Wran, Carr, Rann, Bracks, Beattie, Palaszczuk, McGowan, etc. You will note that most of these leaders were so successful that they more or less pushed the Coalition out of the picture for extended periods of time. As far as I can recall, Dan Andrews is the only figure from the Labor Left who has ever managed to achieve the same sort of result. But he was an exceptionally talented political leader, which is not something that can be said about Albo, Allan or Miles.

    The problem facing the Labor Left has always been that, because we are one of the most affluent societies in the world, a majority of the Australian people are – and have always been – pretty conservative in their political views. Only a relative minority – I would suggest around 10-15 per cent of the electorate – are particuarly attracted towards the socialist ideologies and militant trade unionism that the Labor Left holds dear in their hearts. And these days, that 10-15 percent are increasingly tending to bypass the broad church of the ALP and give their first preference to the far left wolves in green clothing. As a result, the Labor Left seem to be increasingly losing their mojo.

    Labor must always aim for the political centre. I think Albo realises this, but struggles to articulate it at all well because his heart isn’t truly in it. We saw that yesterday when, rather than set out a sensible version of what Makarrata might now look like post the defeat of the Voice referendum, he just mumbled some empty words about it being all about people coming together.

    The Albanese Government is steadily developing a rather wilted appearance, which is bizarre given that they have been in government for only a couple of years. Governments travelling as poorly as this usually struggle to win another term. I accept that the laws of mathematics would appear to defy Dutton the opportunity to win majority government without a seemingly impossible swing towards the Coalition. But I have an increasingly bad feeling about where things are going.

    But there are no easy fixes: Albo isn’t going to step down, and he is protected from a challenge by the stupid process he established with Rudd back in 2013. And, in any event, the likely challengers in Shorten and Chalmers are nothing special either. So the best solution is for Albo to find a way of doing better than he has been doing.

    Back in the Hawke-Keating era, the favoured approach for turning things around was a lot of colour and movement. Some big policy “statements” in Parliament with lots of funding goodies attached: Working Nation being a memorable instance. As I’ve posted before, I reckon Albo should try something like this with the combined housing-immigration problem: a combination of still more investment in housing and a further reduction in the migrant intake. And then maybe a “statement” addressing cost of living.

    It’s got to be worth a try. It’s worked ok in the past. It’s a shame that Albo isn’t more of an imposing figure, but you’ve got to work with what you’ve got.

  26. meher baba says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 7:30 am
    As indicated by the Redbridge Group’s polling in Victoria (reported by William in another thread), Labor looks to be struggling across the country ATM.
    ——————-
    So is the lib/nats struggling their combined primary vote is only moving due to the One nation and palmer united party voters not really the votes going to make difference in the seats where the Lib/nats need to gain

    It basically the same all-around Australia since the 2022 federal election Labor not losing votes to the lib/nats, but on the non labor left leaning greens and independents, preferences go back to Labor more then the lib/nats

  27. There is still no evidence in the opinion polling that the federal Lib/nats are going to improve their seat count of 55 or gain enough seats off Labor to force a Labor minority government at the 2025 federal election

  28. The federal Lib/nats is the political partys which are likely to lose seats and ground from the 2022 federal election to Teal/Independents and maybe to labor and greens

  29. What a shame that the federal Labor government don’t impress meher baba with razzle dazzle. Is he really such a cheap date for the Liberals because he is so easily impressed by a political strong man flexing his mouth muscles, even when he is persistently and consistently wrong about everything?

    Case in point, Dutton’s bewailing about the Cost of Living. Well, that particular ship looks to have sailed today and will hit an iceberg and likely sink before the election if and when the RBA cuts interest rates due to results like these:

    Australians should expect more relief at the supermarket checkout as the rate of food inflation slows to pre-COVID-19 levels, a development that could influence the Reserve Bank’s looming decision on interest rates.

    Decreased growth in the price of poultry, breakfast cereals, cheese and other items has dragged food inflation down to 3.3 per cent over the past 12 months, lower than the overall inflation rate of 3.8 per cent.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/food-inflation-plummets-bringing-cost-of-living-relief-and-a-challenge-for-the-rba-20240802-p5jyyo.html

    So, it looks like Labor have tamed the inflation dragon that the Coalition unleashed with their reckless spending during Covid, and in a little over 2 years to boot. With 2 Surpluses to their name.

    Wilting? Nah. #winning

  30. Scott: “The federal Lib/nats is the political partys which are likely to lose seats and ground from the 2022 federal election to Teal/Independents and maybe to labor and greens.
    ———————————————————————————
    I’m happy to go along with the view that it is well nigh impossible for the Coalition to regain government, and that they might lose one or two more seats to the Teals, although this might be counteracted by the abolition of North Sydney and, perhaps, regaining Kooyong.

    But I’m extremely doubtful that the Coalition will lose any seats to left parties, and would expect them to pick up a few. If the Greens are to win any more seats, I would think this will be at the expense of Labor, not the Libs.

  31. Scott 1 says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 7:43 am

    Not only that but a lot of wish casting seems to be going on. What Cost of Living problem?

    —————-
    Fair point , i know by-elections are different to the general election
    in the By-elections where cost of living were the main focus for the federal lib/nats and their propaganda media units, the results showed no swing against Labor but Labor received swing to it
    The federal Lib/nats had swing against it in Federal Lib safe seat and in a marginal Labor held seat, and only had a swing to it in a very safe QLD LNP seat.

  32. c@t: The “cost of living” issue is all about perception, not reality. And I think it’s most importantly about housing costs, which a fall in interest rates (if it actually happens) is only going to be of benefit to mortgagees, and probably not to anyone else, as it will probably push house prices and potentially rents up even further.

    BTW, Dutton is not a particularly strong or impressive leader IMO. The nuclear stuff hasn’t worked at all well for him. But, apart from that, he has done ok at remaining on message and projecting a certain level of competency.

    I’ve provided a list of the sort of strong leaders who impress me. Apart from Andrews, they were all from the Labor Right and were mostly men, because almost all of our political leaders have been men. I put Palaszczuk in there because I thought she was quite a success. I would have liked to put Gillard in there too: she could have been one of our better PMs. But a combination of unfortunate circumstances (ie, Rudd effectively holding the parliamentary majority in his hands after the 2010 election) and one really stupid mistake (acknowledging that the emissions reduction scheme was a “carbon tax”) meant that she ultimately failed.

    I’ll admit that Howard rather impressed me as well: I usually vote Labor, but I’m not a dyed-in-the-wool supporter.

  33. MAWBM @8.44pm
    The only interstate teams on the AFL ladder, after Round 21 are:
    Geelong (5th), Footscray (7th) @ Carlton (8th).
    Looking forward to the GWS vs Sydney Grand Final – where the real Sydney team, not the relocated team triumphs.
    Hopefully, both GWS & Sydney aren’t so obviously robbed, as there were in 2016, to allow Footscray to become Premiers.

  34. meher baba says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 7:52 am

    But I’m extremely doubtful that the Coalition will lose any seats to left parties, and would expect them to pick up a few. If the Greens are to win any more seats, I would think this will be at the expense of Labor, not the Libs.
    ————————————
    You likely to be right in QLD , where the QLD LNP will likely gain seats

  35. meher baba
    [It’s got to be worth a try. It’s worked ok in the past. It’s a shame that Albo isn’t more of an imposing figure, but you’ve got to work with what you’ve got.]

    Successful Labor leaders from the past had the MSM behind every utterance.
    The new hybrid media, combining the leftover sunset bits and the still unproven “tech” bits have declined Albanese and Labor’s offerings.

    The attacks are relentless.

    Dutton, a headline, a trophy on a car bonnet, appeals to old media and the Teals, Greens, Rainbow and independents at the forefront of much of the new.

    Labor is a very old model.
    Dutton a sunset model.
    And the rest a patchwork quilt.

    The ABC doesn’t even know if it’s new or old media.

    The polling reflects a very confused electorate and without a bright light appearing from the dark, we meander along to a minority government at the next election.
    (rather like the Toyota commercial with Barry)

  36. The nuclear stuff hasn’t worked at all well for him.

    Yes, he’s gone quiet on that lately, instead unleashing his political pit bull, Barnaby Joyce, to run a scare campaign across the country against Wind and Solar. How successful that is we’ll have to wait and see, but it is just a carbon copy at the end of the day, of his Anti MDB Plan roadshow. I can’t wait for him to organise the burning of a bunch of solar panels. 😉

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