The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.
Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.
A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.
There is something very rotten in the culture of the Liberal party. You can argue that this is ultimately what happens when an organisation is devoid of women, but the Liberal party has had women leaders and deputies and still the women-repellent culture continues.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-was-among-political-staffers-sexually-abused-we-ve-won-change-but-our-work-isn-t-done-20240802-p5jytn.html
I’m yet to see Dutton produce a convincing plan for how he would address cost of living concerns beyond cheap shots and slogans . Nothing substantial, nothing for outer metro seat voters to latch onto that will clearly and immediately improve their home budget. He talks about a “positive plan” but so far has come up with nothing beyond “small government,”, 40k less immigrants, going back to 20 free MH appts, a surplus budget and reducing funding to green hydrogen development. If he wants to revive Howard’s battlers in outer metro Melbourne and Sydney, Dutton will need to do much better than slogans and hyperbole to shift red seats to blue. His nukes plan asks punters to wait 10-20 years before he fixes power prices. Not a good start.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK.
I am a bit troubled by Albo’s reported words at the Garma Festival. What he allegedly said contradicted his election promise on the Uluru statement. It may well be difficult after the Voice outcome to now implement the statement. If so then Albo should say that, not go to Garma and then deny he made his previous promise.
Now Melandirah McCarthy is walking back Albo’s walking back. Not a good look.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-05/makarrata-commission-promise-not-abandoned-malarndirri/104182962
‘Sandman says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 8:15 am
I’m yet to see Dutton produce a convincing plan for how he would address cost of living concerns beyond cheap shots and slogans…’
————————-
Phshaw.
There will be a tax cut promise. Deregulation. Cuts to red tape. Cuts to green tape. Cuts to union power. Cuts to migrant numbers. Cuts to excise. Cuts to stamp duty. Sales of assets. Cuts to subsidies for renewables. Free coal and gas.
Then when the debt goes up far enough and the states are bust enough… a grudging acceptance that if the states really want an increase in the GST they can have it.
Cheap shots and slogans will work just fine for most punters.
Pete knows that.
Sandman: “If he wants to revive Howard’s battlers in outer metro Melbourne and Sydney, Dutton will need to do much better than slogans and hyperbole to shift red seats to blue. ”
———————————————————————————
You’d like think so. But, since Howard’s time, a majority of voters have been firmly convinced that the Coalition is intrinsically much better at managing the economy than Labor. [Oops! Fixed now.]
So problems like inflation, high interest rates and high house prices are always good for the Coalition, and the burden of proof always falls on Labor to convince the electorate that it isn’t going to stuff up the economy rather than on the Coalition to prove that it has any ideas that are actually going to make a difference.
Abbott’s unfulfilled promise of a surplus in 2013 damaged the Coalition’s image to some extent, but not enough to persuade most voters that Labor is more trustworthy on economic issues. Hawke-Keating actually did manage to do this for a time, but unfortunately those days are long gone. Chalmers has been doing a better job than I ever expected him to do, but he has been very quiet since the Budget.
BK on the ABC story about Kim Williams wanting more “hard” news, he is right. But there is a but. Researching and writing “hard” news stories often takes a lot more journalistic effort than social trend stories. To me an absence of the hard news is a sign of diminishing resources in journalism, not a diminishing desire on the part of journalists to break big stories.
Too right, Socrates!
Socrates @ #1103 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 8:45 am
Indeed. Confusion reigns yet again. Nobody ever seems to know what Albo is going to say on this subject, or how much of what says he actually means.
Socrates: “Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK.
I am a bit troubled by Albo’s reported words at the Garma Festival. What he allegedly said contradicted his election promise on the Uluru statement. It may well be difficult after the Voice outcome to now implement the statement. If so then Albo should say that, not go to Garma and then deny he made his previous promise.
Now Melandirah McCarthy is walking back Albo’s walking back. Not a good look.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-05/makarrata-commission-promise-not-abandoned-malarndirri/104182962”
——————————————————————————
In hindsight, it might have been better for Albo to let Malandirri to step into the limelight at the Garma Festival as the new Minister: especially as Albo seems to have showed up with absolutely nothing to offer Indigenous peoples. Malandirri is an excellent communicator and would have found a way of talking about Makarrata that would have worked much better.
Sandmansays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 8:15 am
I’m yet to see Dutton produce a convincing plan for how he would address cost of living concerns beyond cheap shots and slogans.
_____________________
Labor is in govt. Dutton is irrelevant.
You need to be holding Labor to account for cost of living concerns.
…especially as Albo seems to have showed up with absolutely nothing to offer Indigenous peoples.
This is just factually incorrect and I wish people wouldn’t make such condemnatory statements based upon a vibe!
I consider this a pretty important announcement for a Prime Minister to make:
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/tripartite-partnership-secures-garma-institute-vision-and-country-learning-yolngu-0
Well said Socrates, on both points
Labor is in govt. Dutton is irrelevant.
True dat. 😀
You need to be holding Labor to account for cost of living concerns.
Also true, as Shane Wright is doing:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/food-inflation-plummets-bringing-cost-of-living-relief-and-a-challenge-for-the-rba-20240802-p5jyyo.html
This Glen Le Lievre cartoon says it all …
https://x.com/GlenLeLievre/status/1819882874985939364?mx=2
It’s an animated gif, so you have to open the link to see it.
Meher baba
“ In hindsight, it might have been better for Albo to let Malandirri to step into the limelight at the Garma Festival as the new Minister: especially as Albo seems to have showed up with absolutely nothing to offer Indigenous peoples.”
I neither said nor implied that [Albo has nothing to offer]. Albo has shown a genuine commitment to reconciliation over a long time. I think the Voice defeat saddened him. I criticised his words, not his actions. Albo needs to be careful because people (like you) will misinterpret his words.
Socrates @ #1117 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 9:19 am
And they, like he, will work very hard at propagating that narrative.
Abbott’s unfulfilled promise of a surplus in 2013 damaged the Coalition’s image to some extent, but not enough to persuade most voters that Labor is more trustworthy on economic issues.
‘Back In Black’ mugs for the mugs much?
But Boerwar is correct with his list of things the Coalition will misdirect people into thinking are ways they will address the Cost of Living.
Not only has Dutton been quiet on how will the federal lib/nats be any different to when they were in government .Dutton still has not given the promised details of the cost and price of the nuclear thought bubble despite claiming it will be released shortly months and months ago
In just over a week the Albo government has backed away on;
Disability rights and findings from the RC
Gambling add reforms they themselves proposed
Makaratta
No wonder theres not much difficulty in spreading the narrative that the government is weak…
Scott, it doesn’t matter.
Dutters is coasting now.
Who’s going to push back, Labor?
The media?
It’s all plain sailing from here.
Mundo @ #1122 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 9:33 am
And we know how right all your predictions in the past have been. 😐
Socrates: “I neither said nor implied that [Albo has nothing to offer]. Albo has shown a genuine commitment to reconciliation over a long time. I think the Voice defeat saddened him. I criticised his words, not his actions. Albo needs to be careful because people (like you) will misinterpret his words.”
——————————————————————————-
You and c@t have misinterpreted my words. I meant that Albo went to Garma with no particular announcement or commitment to put forward. In the end, all that he really did was to give the appearance of backpedalling in relation to Makarrata.
I think he must have been operating on some logic that it was absolutely essential for the Australian PM to attend each and every Garma Festival. I don’t think his appearance there has been at all helpful to him. To paraphase the wise words of the philosopher Wittgenstein, if you’ve got nothing to say about something, it is better to remain silent.
Trumps base may be loud but Harris’ base is strong. She represents “people who want change but don’t want to do anything about it so they donate to charities and political groups instead”.
In other words, she is a guilt free vote, and that is a powerful thing. She doesn’t have the baggage of Clinton and Trump is not in fine enough form yet to launch a sharp attack like he to did to her.
AFR: The Australian sharemarket is in the midst of its worst two-day sell off in two years, as rising US recession fears extend the index’s Friday sell-down.
The S&P/ASX 200 is 2.2 per cent, or 175.8 points, lower at 7767.4, extending Friday’s 2.1 per cent loss. That places the bourse more than 4 per cent down over the last two sessions, its worst performance since June 2022.
Shares in the US fell over the weekend after July non-farm payrolls data released in the US on Friday shocked Wall Street, with the number of new jobs missing estimates and the jobless rate rising faster than expected. That has fuelled fears of a potential recession. Goldman Sach’s recession probability indicator has risen from 15 per cent to 25 per cent.
Banks are taking another beating in the first session of the week, with Westpac and ANZ dropping a further 3 per cent, after charting similar falls in the previous session.
Friday’s global market sell-off was aided by fears bets on big tech companies that have invested heavily in artificial intelligence look overdone, and were followed on Sunday by news investor Warren Buffett dumped $116 billion worth of stocks in the second quarter.
One the ASX, the tech sector is the worst hit, down more than 3 per cent.
A US recession during a US election year… another candidate for an October Surprise…
Haven’t seen any evidence that the government “backed away” from the disability royal commission findings – it’s a long report and looks like people are basing their reactions on the headlines only.
Bizz, ignoring the obvious outcome of the government only accepting 13 of the 222 recommendations fully, some of the most damning pushbacks are on the notion of codified rights, the phasing out of group homes, and either adopting more interactions between different schools, or phasing them out completely.
Bizzcan says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:29 am
Haven’t seen any evidence that the government “backed away” from the disability royal commission findings – it’s a long report and looks like people are basing their reactions on the headlines only.
_________
Basing their reactions on their agenda (for or against) as per usual 🙂
HH: yep, the ASX is currently plummeting for no particularly good reason after rising dramatically a week or so ago, also for no particularly good reason.
I don’t know why Wall Street was so suddenly “shocked” about evidence that the US and global economies are going soft: the current trajectory of China’s economy has been there for all to see for some time now. I very much doubt there will be a recession, but it is now pretty clear that there is not going to be any sort of asset price surge fuelled by interest rate cuts on the part of the Fed Reserve: a scenario that many of the short-term investors on Wall Street have been hanging out for for some months.
It’ll all sort itself out in the long run.
meher baba says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 9:56 am
Socrates: “I neither said nor implied that [Albo has nothing to offer]. Albo has shown a genuine commitment to reconciliation over a long time. I think the Voice defeat saddened him. I criticised his words, not his actions. Albo needs to be careful because people (like you) will misinterpret his words.”
——————————————————————————-
You and c@t have misinterpreted my words. I meant that Albo went to Garma with no particular announcement or commitment to put forward. In the end, all that he really did was to give the appearance of backpedalling in relation to Makarrata.
I think he must have been operating on some logic that it was absolutely essential for the Australian PM to attend each and every Garma Festival. I don’t think his appearance there has been at all helpful to him. To paraphase the wise words of the philosopher Wittgenstein, if you’ve got nothing to say about something, it is better to remain silent.
__________
Yes. Not turning up after a loss is so much better. That is what real leaders do.
Griff, im going to use my experience in the APS to explain what Albo (or anyone) should have done.
If we had a policy plan that went under, or hell anything getting public attention, you better believe we spent weeks with media teams ensuring we had the message downpack; this meant identifying where ambiguity would be the third rail, and ensuring our message was clear, concise, and tailored to the audience (for the aps thats 7th grade reading levels btw).
Albo and the team should have known that, given the heightened attention since the failure of the referendum, that any and all messages coming from his government in relation to the Uluru Statement would be investigated with a fine tooth comb; this would not be the place for ambiguous messaging.
And yet here we are with the Indigenous Affairs minister coming out defending Albos messaging, while also making the EXACT same mistake – either your committed or your not. The commission was a key outcome and promise from this government… playing fence sitting just makes them look hopeless or weak
This is for the D&D bros out there 🙂
— Lillian Barkley, Opinions audience strategy editor
https://wapo.st/3Yw5Yxv
Free to read
Japan’s Nikkei posts biggest two-day drop in its history: Down 5.75% today after 5.85% on Friday.
The Israeli Embassy has pushed back against the Binskin report on the killing of Zomi Frankcom and six other WCF aid workers in Gaza. In pushing back, the Embassy claims that the IDF is a professional and disciplined army, with similar legal views, standards and controls in place to mitigate the risks of war, like the ADF”. This is not what I’ve read elsewhere, where the IDF in Gaza has been described as an army made up of heavily-armed, ill-disciplined reservists, with little regard for Palestinian life.
Watching my own stock. I use exchange traded funds (ETFs), packages of shares from various areas. I see my high return ETFs dropping much sharper than my low return ETFs. Interesting to see risk profiles in action. I wont sell, but probably buy more in the coming weeks once it’s flattened out. I was due a purchase anyway.
The surge the other day was probably due to re-assessment of the trajectory of interest rates.
The fall right now is probably based on a risk assessment having to do with the Iran+ response to the killing of two Iran+ leaders. The sudden urgent calls by governments for their citizens to scarper from Lebanon most likely hints at things that we do not know.
The slowing or partial or total interdiction of ME oil exports would have a very rapid economic and financial impact.
@but the rumour and sell the fact.
‘Stuart says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 11:02 am
The Israeli Embassy has pushed back against the Binskin report on the killing of Zomi Frankcom and six other WCF aid workers in Gaza. In pushing back, the Embassy claims that the IDF is a professional and disciplined army, with similar legal views, standards and controls in place to mitigate the risks of war, like the ADF”. This is not what I’ve read elsewhere, where the IDF in Gaza has been described as an army made up of heavily-armed, ill-disciplined reservists, with little regard for Palestinian life.’
—————————-
There were ADF units in Afghanistan that behaved badly.
Most of the IDF reservists have been home for months.
Lordbain says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:46 am
Griff, im going to use my experience in the APS to explain what Albo (or anyone) should have done.
If we had a policy plan that went under, or hell anything getting public attention, you better believe we spent weeks with media teams ensuring we had the message downpack; this meant identifying where ambiguity would be the third rail, and ensuring our message was clear, concise, and tailored to the audience (for the aps thats 7th grade reading levels btw).
Albo and the team should have known that, given the heightened attention since the failure of the referendum, that any and all messages coming from his government in relation to the Uluru Statement would be investigated with a fine tooth comb; this would not be the place for ambiguous messaging.
And yet here we are with the Indigenous Affairs minister coming out defending Albos messaging, while also making the EXACT same mistake – either your committed or your not. The commission was a key outcome and promise from this government… playing fence sitting just makes them look hopeless or weak
_______
I was responding to the suggestion not to turn up. As for Albo’s response, I want more as well. The issue is the government have already spent the entire first term’s worth of political capital on this matter. Labor doesn’t have any more to lose as they are entering minority government area in the polls. The Coalition and The Greens gain politically. Australia as a nation loses and First Nations Peoples lose most, as always. Perhaps one of these political parties may take up the challenge when they are in government.
Not victim blaming at all but when I read that article from Chelsey Potter I could not understand why she is still a member of the Liberal Party. The fact that her abuser was invited to an event she was at, how and why is he still working for the Liberal Party?
I don’t think there has been changed at all, certainly more awareness which probably means the Liberal boys pry their craft outside of political circles.
No, the government did not “push back” on codifying rights for disabled people – the response made it clear this will be incorporated into the response to the parliamentary inquiry on human rights.
“The Australian Government will further consider the Disability Royal
Commission’s recommendations in relation to the enactment of a Disability
Rights Act, and the accompanying functions and complaints mechanism of
a National Disability Commission, alongside the PJCHR’s recommendations.
This will ensure a holistic approach is taken to ensuring the rights and
freedoms of all Australians are respected and protect”
A fragmented rights framework is bad policy. Some are just looking for the flashy announcement.
ASIO has raised Austalia’s terror threat level from “possible” to “probable”.
I’m am instead critical of this government when it is obvious that Ministers are not working together – Makarrata in/out is a mess because of the breakdown in communication
Terrorism threat level raised to ‘probable’: PM
The threat level is raised amid concerns that surging levels of personal grievance, intolerance and “self-righteousness” are driving disaffected Australians to violence.The oz 5/8/2024
Well when you create homeless Australians due to immigration/students etc you get blowback.
I don’t know why a much-needed correction in the market is causing so much consternation. Isn’t that how a market is supposed to work?
bc @ #1142 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 11:50 am
ALBO has raised Labor’s minority government threat level from “possible” to “probable”.
Pied Piper the ASIO head said the people they are exposing and monitoring are not in the low income disaffected cohorts so blaming immigrants and OS students for the higher terrorist threat level is just more BS from you.
I must say Albo is the very model of relaxed and comfortable.
Taylormade I agree the Govt must be held to account for their cost of living policy impacts. My comments were about Dutton offering a plausible, positive alternative which he has to date failed to deliver.
Iran has told Arab countries that it no longer cares whether its attack on Israel will trigger an all-out war in the Middle East, according to a report. Following the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which Iran has blamed on Israel, an Iranian attack on Israel is considered imminent as the regime has vowed to avenge the killing.
There are fears that Iran’s attack and the subsequent Israeli retaliation could envelop the entire Middle East in an all-out war. Since the beginning of the war in the Middle East last year with Hamas’ attack on Israel, the two countries had made conscious to not get involved in a full-scale war. But, now, it appears that the understanding has broken as there is no assurance a war will be averted.
Now, Iran has told Arab countries that it does not care if an attack on Iran leads to an all-out war, according to The Wall Street Journal.