Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 25 of 31
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  1. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:35 pm
    Hold on; PP connecting Albo to Hamas is slander (as it obviously is), but BW and other posters connecting Hamas to the Greens isnt?
    =================================================

    If or when he did it? Did you call it out as such?. If not you should of.
    If your claim that BW connected “The Greens” or “Bandt” in a very similar way that PP has just connected Albo. I would have the same belief of that comment.

    To be fair, when you and BW have your extended flame war exchanges. I tend to scroll through a lot of it. Reading the first post of each. Is generally enough to get the gist of the argument. Which is normally a repeat of the last one you two had anyway.

  2. Heartwarming to see the Aussie and Ukraine high jumpers celebrating together their success. They’ll never forget that. 🙂

  3. Sceptic @ #1156 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 12:36 pm

    FUBAR says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:30 pm

    It is beyond dispute that the IDF is just one of the many terrorist organizations in the Middle East, they are probably the best funded.

    Not quite.

    LONDON/DUBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) – Palestinian militant group Hamas uses a global financing network to funnel support from charities and friendly nations, passing cash through Gaza tunnels or using cryptocurrencies to bypass international sanctions, according to experts and officials.
    However, Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, will face even more obstacles accessing funds after the rampage by the group’s gunmen that killed hundreds of Israelis, mainly civilians. Israel has responded with the heaviest bombardment of Gaza in 75 years of conflict.
    Earlier this week, Israeli police said they froze a Barclays bank account the authorities said was linked to Hamas fundraising and blocked cryptocurrency accounts used to gather donations, without specifying how many accounts or the value of the assets.

    The move provided a glimpse of a complex financial web, some legitimate, much hidden, that underpins Hamas, or the Islamic Resistance Movement, and its government in the Gaza Strip, which it has run since 2007.

    Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. official specialised in counterterrorism, estimated the bulk of Hamas’ budget of more than $300 million came from taxes on business, as well as from countries including Iran and Qatar or charities.

    Last February, the State Department said that Hamas raises funds in other Gulf countries and gets donations from Palestinians, other expatriates and its own charities.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-cash-to-crypto-global-finance-maze-israels-sights-2023-10-16/

  4. Mexicanbeemer @ #1205 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 1:52 pm

    Labor people panicking about attacks on Albo should get their local members to start doing their job.

    You sound like Rex Douglas with his simplistic one-liners. What’s happened to you, Mexicanbeemer? Got nothing better to do than become radicalised by negative partisanship on social media?

  5. … Mexianbeemer is radicalised now?

    Jesus christ, this coming from the same person who thinks the poors are only poor because they dont have a job, and people without a job deserve to be punished…

  6. Australia’s now privatised “employment services” system is yet another Commonwealth implementation failure. Here one provider was found by @SquigglyRick to have offshore owners registered in Delaware. Aussie taxpayers fund this heartless dysfunction. https://t.co/J1xF0klaL3 via…— Quentin Dempster (@QuentinDempster) August 3, 2024

    It’s just bad faith politics from Albo to maintain this rubbish systematic rort.

  7. Rex Douglas @ #1208 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 2:05 pm

    Australia’s now privatised “employment services” system is yet another Commonwealth implementation failure. Here one provider was found by @SquigglyRick to have offshore owners registered in Delaware. Aussie taxpayers fund this heartless dysfunction. https://t.co/J1xF0klaL3 via…— Quentin Dempster (@QuentinDempster) August 3, 2024

    It’s just bad faith politics from Albo to maintain this rubbish systematic rort.

    Where’s that magic wand again that enables the Prime Minister to unpick all the mistakes of the former ~10 years of the Coalition government within 3? 😐

  8. dave says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:03 pm
    I wonder when the US/Australian Right started to support Israel in such a strident manner.
    ————
    Yes, but the so called left wing in all western countries support for islamic clerical fascism is far far more troubling.

    The islamists are very confident, with some justification, that they will be able to take over a weak and divided west.

  9. Rikali… thats a dumb comment. You might want to look at leftists groups around the world at how they view religious groups…

  10. dave says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:16 pm

    I don’t think anyone with an understanding of politics in Australia or the United States disputes that the Right was pretty enthusiastic in their anti-semitism.

    Utter rubbish. The Australian Liberal and National Parties have been rock solid supporters of Israel, as has the US Republican Party.

    Conflating extreme right racists with these conservative political parties is garbage.

    Complete utter puss

  11. Lordbain: “Rikali… thats a dumb comment. You might want to look at leftists groups around the world at how they view religious groups…”

    Except for Islam.

  12. MB, while leftists support the rights of Palestinians, I want you to point to a leftist group in the “west” that supports Islamic law.

  13. dave says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:20 pm
    This articles makes the case that anti semitism has moved from the Right to the Left, but also includes this:

    Traditionally, antisemitism in the United States was promoted by far-right organizations and movements, such as the Ku Klux Klan, neo-Nazi groups and skinheads.

    None of which have anything to do with the conservative right parties of western democracies. Just fuck off with this bullshit.

  14. Lordbain says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:17 pm
    Rikali… thats a dumb comment. You might want to look at leftists groups around the world at how they view religious groups…
    ———
    I am can give you evidence in support of my statement. But maybe Another time.

  15. FUBAR: “Utter rubbish. The Australian Liberal and National Parties have been rock solid supporters of Israel, as has the US Republican Party.”
    ———————————————————————————
    True enough, but these right-wing parties were not very accommodating to Jewish citizens of their own countries until quite recently. There have been very few prominent Jewish Republicans, but loads of prominent Jewish Democrats.

    Likewise in Australia, Jewish conservative politicians such as Josh Frydenberg and Julian Leeser are very much a new breed. In the past, any Jewish person who wanted to make it in politics had to join Labor. Indeed, even Catholics struggled to make much headway in the Liberal and National parties until recent decades: they were very WASP organisations.

  16. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:35 pm
    MB, while leftists support the rights of Palestinians, I want you to point to a leftist group in the “west” that supports Islamic law.
    ===================================================

    Obviously none do, MB’s religious and political ideology. Makes him both dislike the left and Islam. So the only real connection between the two is MB’s dislike of both.

  17. LB: “MB, while leftists support the rights of Palestinians, I want you to point to a leftist group in the “west” that supports Islamic law.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Yes, but leftists in western countries have been very keen to attack homophobia within schools and other institutions operated by Christian churches, but I’d be astonished (and rather impressed) to see any of them demand that Islamic schools employ openly LGBT+ teachers or that Muslim communities absolve girls who identify as transwomen from covering their heads or let them pray in the male zones in mosques or anything like that.

    There seems to be an unstated agreement among western leftists that, because they identify Muslims as being “victims”, they should be given a bit of a free pass on some aspects of their beliefs that would normally be unacceptable to the left-wing mindset. Let’s face it: outside of some heterodox sects and some very liberal communities of faith, Islamic teaching about the role of women and sexuality is rather at odds with the views of most Western leftists.

    It’s a rather unlikely alliance that I believe is going to fall apart one of these days.

  18. MB, I would suggest you look at French leftists if you think theres some unspoken alliance…

    Also the reason why homophobia in Christian schools gets more news time is simple… theres more Christians

  19. meher baba says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Is the ALP’s White Australia and the racism of Curtin relevant to today’s ALP?

    Cut the crap.

  20. Entropy: “Obviously none do, MB’s religious and political ideology. Makes him both dislike the left and Islam. So the only real connection between the two is MB’s dislike of both.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    See my earlier post.

    And I would say further expect that I’m far more sympathetic to Islam than you would be, having studied Islamic culture and society in my younger days. Historically, Islam was a rich and very diverse culture. Unfortunately, the rise and rise of Islamism is imposing an unattractive, intolerant and anti-intellectual Sunni monoculture on a ever-growing portion of the global Muslim community. And I don’t apologise for being unsympathetic towards that.

    As for my attitude towards the left: the politicians who I like the most are those who stand slightly to the left of centre. I’ve said this on PB for many years now, and have incorrectly been dubbed a Liberal by many posters on here. I don’t like socialism, and am unapologetic for that. If someone could show me an example of a socialist society that has ever come close to working properly, I might be interested. (And please don’t anyone give me the BS put forward by people like John Quiggin that things like Medicare and the Australian social security system are instances of “socialism.” They simply aren’t.)

  21. Entropy says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:58 pm

    “ You had already won the argument on historical grounds.”

    Utter garbage, as usual.

  22. meher babasays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    Entropy: “Obviously none do, MB’s religious and political ideology. Makes him both dislike the left and Islam. So the only real connection between the two is MB’s dislike of both.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    See my earlier post.

    And I would say further expect that I’m far more sympathetic to Islam than you would be, having studied Islamic culture and society in my younger days.
    ====================================================

    So where do you stand on Partition? Should it have happened? Who was to blame for it happening? Who is in the wrong in Kashmir?

  23. meher babasays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:42 pm
    FUBAR: “Utter rubbish. The Australian Liberal and National Parties have been rock solid supporters of Israel, as has the US Republican Party.”
    ———————————————————————————
    True enough, but these right-wing parties were not very accommodating to Jewish citizens of their own countries until quite recently. There have been very few prominent Jewish Republicans, but loads of prominent Jewish Democrats.

    Likewise in Australia, Jewish conservative politicians such as Josh Frydenberg and Julian Leeser are very much a new breed. In the past, any Jewish person who wanted to make it in politics had to join Labor. Indeed, even Catholics struggled to make much headway in the Liberal and National parties until recent decades: they were very WASP organisations.
    ___________________________________
    The Solomon family (who the electorate in the NT is named after) were all Jewish and Conservative.

  24. Lordbain says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:35 pm
    MB, while leftists support the rights of Palestinians, I want you to point to a leftist group in the “west” that supports Islamic law.

    The UK Labour Party. They attend meetings which are split by gender. Men at the front and females at the back.

  25. FUBAR: “Is the ALP’s White Australia and the racism of Curtin relevant to today’s ALP?
    Cut the crap.”

    Well I actually think they are. If we turn away from our past and where we came from, we can never hope truly to understand ourselves.

    For instance, the whole of Australia is a racist project, based on the concept that Indigenous people didn’t truly own their land because they didn’t use it in the same way that European people used their land. (Of course Bruce Pascoe would have us believe that Indigenous people did use their land in exactly the same way, which is total nonsense and only muddies the waters.) I believe that contemporary non-Indigenous Australians need to acknowledge and absorb that they are the beneficiaries of that racist project.

    IMO that doesn’t mean that we need to give up everything we have, but it does mean that we have truly to own it: not just make glib statements like “this land is and always will be Indigenous land” and then go back to scrolling through realestate.com.au to see how much of a killing we would make if we were to put our homes on the market right now. And it means that non-Indigenous politicians are going to have to start thinking more seriously about what gives them the right to keep inviting hundreds of thousands of new settlers into this country every year.

    But that’s an issue for another post. Right now, the point is that many Australian institutions have to acknowledge and own the racism and sexism of their histories. That includes both the ALP and the main conservative parties, as well as a wide range of institutions. And anti-semitism was a strong element of the past racist attitudes. I’m not really judging the people of the past, as those were different times to now. But we can’t pretend that these things didn’t happen.

  26. Alpha Zero: “The Solomon family (who the electorate in the NT is named after) were all Jewish and Conservative.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Well, the Solomon who was Premier of South Australia for a week was, if I recall correctly, a member of the Free Trade party which, before the Labor Party’s rise to prominence, combined aspects of left and right political positions. But he certainly represents an exception to the rule that, until recently, Jewish politicians mainly came up through the ALP.

    My understanding is that there have subsequently been few Jewish politicans of note from South Australia on either side of politics: I vaguely recall a mayor of Adelaide a while back, but that’s about it.

  27. I see that Bob Brown and other activists were found guilty in the Hobart magistrates Court today of the grevious crime of defending Swift Parrot habitat from loggers.

    Meanwhile, climate change is wreaking havoc.

  28. Rex Douglas @ #1243 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 3:22 pm

    I see that Bob Brown and other activists were found guilty in the Hobart magistrates Court today of the grevious crime of defending Swift Parrot habitat from loggers.

    Meanwhile, climate change is wreaking havoc.

    I also see Bob Brown is still trying to stop wind farms being built. Strange times indeed.

  29. FUBARsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 3:03 pm
    Entropy says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:58 pm

    “ You had already won the argument on historical grounds.”

    Utter garbage, as usual.
    =====================================================

    So are you claiming you are honestly arguing over the original contention you called out (see below)?

    FUBARsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:12 pm
    dave says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:03 pm

    Dave:
    Considering the history of anti-semitism in Right/Conservative politics historically.
    ——————————————————–
    FUBAR:
    Where? When?

    There is zero evidence to support your bullshit claim.

    Put up or shut up.

  30. Entropy: “So where do you stand on Partition? Should it have happened? Who was to blame for it happening? Who is in the wrong in Kashmir?”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Partition has been more or less a complete disaster for the people of Pakistan and only slightly less so for the people of Bangladesh. It should never have happened, but understandably Attlee was keen for Britain to make a rapid exit from India and the task of preventing the looming disaster would have required more years of colonial rule, risking a violent uprising from the Indian pro-Independence movement. So I suspect the bad outcome was probably inevitable.

    Once partition became inevitable, I think it would have been better for Kashmir, like all other Muslim majority regions of India, to have become part of Pakistan, or at least to have remained an independent kingdom. But, unfortunately for the people of Kashmir, the Nehru-Gandhi family that has dominated the Congress movement/party for the best part of a century are proud descendants of Kashimiri Brahmins. So they were always going to be reluctant to let Kashmir go. But giving Kashmir up might have fostered better relations between India and Pakistan and even some sort of closer relationship among all South Asian nations a la the EEC. Of course, we’ll never know now.

  31. Albo stands with ASIO raising the terrorist threat level to “probable” Did he study fear mongering from the Liberals? his bullshit pleas for “social cohesion” didn’t work to shut up critics of his handling of the Gaza war so now he’s insinuating the y are terrirists. He acted all tough telling Putin to “BACK OFF” but he will say nothing about Netanyahu. He would rather demonise peaceful pro-Palestinian protestors – check out England if you want to compare them to violent protestors. Albo going from worse to worse.

  32. Seeing MB didn’t want to discuss “Partition” (edit: i see he has, sorry). I’ll put my opinion out on it. Both Hindu’s and Muslims share some blame over it. Though the biggest blame for it. I allocate to the Hindu caste system that caused extreme divisions within society. It most benefited the Brahmin caste whom maintained in a similar way to how Afrikaners had maintained apartheid. All others, except Brahmin’s, were treated like dirt in that system. No wonder the lower caste slaves of that system wanted to exit it by becoming Muslims. Then escape their Brahmin overlords all together by forming a country free of their oppression. Though once formed, Pakistan repeated many of the same mistakes, just in a slightly different way.

    Note: While my comment was written before seeing MB’s. I do note there is some shared belief on the involvement of the upper caste Brahmin trying to maintain their power and privilege. As an important factor in India/Pakistan problems.

  33. meher baba

    “ Partition has been more or less a complete disaster for the people of Pakistan and only slightly less so for the people of Bangladesh. It should never have happened, but understandably Attlee was keen for Britain to make a rapid exit from India and the task of preventing the looming disaster would have required more years of colonial rule, risking a violent uprising from the Indian pro-Independence movement.”

    But understandably after they conquered murdered starved to death millions stole everything not nailed down and destroyed and set back the progress of a viable nation they fucked off.

  34. Lordbain: “MB… given your post, whats your definition of socialism?”

    Government ownership (ostensibly on behalf of the people or, more specifically, “the proletariat”) of all means of production. Sometimes socialism will permit a certain amount of small-scale private mercantile and farming activity, although only under sufferance.

    Marx believed that he had found scientific proof that capitalism would inevitably lead to socialism. But he didn’t consider what socialism would inevitably lead to. On the basis of the available historical and contemporary evidence, socialism inevitably leads to the seizure and mismanagement of a large part of a nation’s wealth by a small, self-appointed elite. It also tends to lead to insufficient investment in productive activity, and to inefficient supply chain processes, leading to shortages of some essential goods and, not infrequently, oversupply of other products.

    I could go on, but I don’t like being mean.

  35. So is Ms. Reynolds accusing the AG of political interference in legal proceedings… Lynda not showing any signs of her alleged ill health due to the proceedings…

    Reynolds said outside court on Monday morning that she was looking forward to “having the opportunity to tell the truth” after three-and-a-half years.

    “I’m very glad the attorney general does not have any reach into the supreme court in Western Australia,” she said.

    Look forward to Scottie from Marketing testifying on he behalf. I assume as character witness.. Scottie will first have to rehabilitate his character following the Robodebt RC… what was it… “an unreliable witness”

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