Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Cat@momma –

    “ Where’s that magic wand again that enables the Prime Minister to unpick all the mistakes of the former ~10 years of the Coalition government within 3?”

    Where can we get a magic wand to wave at this most pathetic do nothing in a time of cost of living and housing crisis Labor government to make them actually do something.? Your voice will be the last voice heard singing and praising this government as its ship sinks beneath the waves and condemns us to another decade of awful Liberal rule. Good on you.

  2. Butcher: “But understandably after they conquered murdered starved to death millions stole everything not nailed down and destroyed and set back the progress of a viable nation they fucked off.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    That’s a little bit simplistic. The only viable “nations” that existed in India prior to British rule were just about as rapacious as the British: indeed, the British pretty much took over their methods of exploiting the population.

    But you’re correct that the main motivation of British imperialism in India was profit. The British East India Company basically exploited the place and enriched its owners and employees for more than two centuries until their regime became so inefficient and cruel that the British Government decided it had to take over.

    However, it was British officialdom that stimulated and encouraged the Indian nationalist movement. The founder of the Indian National Congress was a retired British civil servant named Allan Octavian Hume.

    The more one looks into it, the more complex history appears: which is something that gives me endless enjoyment.

  3. The Albanese government is hostile towards the Muslim community, while giving others a free pass. Muslim voters should vote independent or Green.

  4. MB, I would argue your definition is sound. However I would argue your statement as to the inevitable outcome of socialism… is an almost inevitable outcome for any form of government or system with a hierarchy (just look at western capitalist systems)

    But then as a communist I am a utopianist in the sense that I believe there might be some humans that wouldnt be corrupted by power during the end game shift to an anarchic communist system…

  5. Rachel Young SC spent the morning grasping at metaphorical straws with no actual evidence to support any of her claims.

    Compare and contrast that to the opening remarks by Martin Bennett based on factual evidence.

  6. dave says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:44 pm
    So FUBAR I put up and you shut up.

    I see Brave Sir Robin has taken a few minutes off from following the latest blue-on-blue defamation case to post some increasingly angry thoughts.

  7. FUBARsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:00 pm
    Rachel Young SC spent the morning grasping at metaphorical straws with no actual evidence to support any of her claims.

    Compare and contrast that to the opening remarks by Martin Bennett based on factual evidence.
    ================================================

    FUBAR does commentary. Without even supplying examples. If you just swap the two names init. It makes as much sense. Proving how light weight this commentary actually is.

    The alternative but just as light weight comment would read:

    “Martin Bennett spent the morning grasping at metaphorical straws with no actual evidence to support any of his claims.

    Compare and contrast that to the opening remarks by Rachel Young SC based on factual evidence.”

  8. Entropy: I don’t think you’ve quite got the story of partition quite right. Remember, the guiding force of Indian nationalism up to independence (until he was shot dead by a Hindu nationalist whose memory is honoured today by some of the Hindutva pals of Narendra Modi) was Mohandas K Gandhi, who was as disgusted by the worst aspects of the caste system as you seem to be.

    On the other hand, the father of Pakistan, Muhammed Ali Jinnah, was a secular man – quite possibly a non-believer – who wanted to protect sub-continental Muslims on the basis of their cultural differences from Hindus rather because of their religion. In this he was inspired to a certain extent by the fiercely secular leaders who dominated the Zionist movement at that time.

    From the point of view of Indian Muslims, the biggest problem with the creation of Pakistan was that, big though it was, the majority of them found that they did not live within its borders. And as for Jinnah’s idea of a culturally Muslim nation, Pakistan soon found that there were many profound differences between its different ethnocultural groups: particularly between the dominant Punjabis of the west and the Bengalis of the east, but also between the Punjabis and the Sindhis and between both of those groups and a range of other groups to the west of the Punjab (the Baluchistanis and particularly the Pathans, who had strongly wanted to be part of India). Relations between West and East Pakistan fell apart in the 1970s, and then the remaining bit of Pakistan has remained troubled ever since, with a number of military coups and many other authoritarian acts (including, in recent times, the imprisonment of Imran Khan).

    India, on the other hand, has held together ok and has been a relatively successful multicultural nation: at least until the BJP started to get the upper hand (sorry Ven). And its prospects for social cohesion and stability continue to look a lot better than Pakistan’s. The people of Pakistan would be in a much better situation today if partition hadn’t happened. Likewise the Bangladeshis.

  9. Entropy says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:04 pm

    I prefer to avoid cut and pasting full articles from media organisations and I dislike it immensely when others do it.

    My comment is more than sufficiently supported by publicly available media articles.

  10. Lordbain

    But then as a communist I am a utopianist (sic) in the sense that I believe there might be some humans that wouldnt be corrupted by power during the end game shift to an anarchic communist system…
    ————
    Really? A communist and a green?

    So being a determinist, you believe there will be a time when people will not have to choose to be moral because the economic order will guarantee (determine) morality?

    Fancy dreaming of living in a ‘determined’ society

    Have you read 1984 by George Orwell? Did you mistake it for a Handbook?

  11. “India, on the other hand, has held together ok and has been a relatively successful multicultural nation…”

    (begins to type angrily)

    “…at least until the BJP started to get the upper hand (sorry Ven).

    Cant argue there

  12. There have been very few prominent Jewish Republicans, but loads of prominent Jewish Democrats.
    Barry Goldwater, 1964 Republican Presidential candidate.
    Democrats?
    Crickets.

  13. “Ms Young argued that the senator must have”

    Didn’t supply any evidence that she did – just decided “must have”.

    Bennett provided multiple photographs and messages in evidence supporting his arguments.

    Everyone happy?

    Or do you want full articles printed?

  14. Rikali… you do realize that old Georgie boy was a communist… and that I have, on multiple occasions, called the Soviet Union evil?

    1984 is not anti communism, its anti authoritarianism…

  15. meher babasays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:08 pm
    Entropy: I don’t think you’ve quite got the story of partition quite right.
    ==================================================

    There is aprox. 1000 years of Muslim history with the pre-existing Hindu religion to take into account. Summarising that in a few sentences was always going to be not detailed.

  16. Lordbain @ #1208 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 1:56 pm

    … Mexianbeemer is radicalised now?

    Jesus christ, this coming from the same person who thinks the poors are only poor because they dont have a job, and people without a job deserve to be punished…

    This place gets more bizarre every day. You can see the panic oozing out between the sandbags.

  17. Suck it up, princesses.

    The Voice is dead, buried and cremated.

    That referendum result killed Makarrata and the Treaty.

    To work, both MUST BE national endeavours, not party-specific endeavours.

    To work, both depend on a national Indigenous Voice and on bipartisanship.

    There is no national Indigenous Voice. There is zero bipartisan support for either.

    Albanese could put up a Makarrata proposal and a Treaty proposal.

    They would instantly be delayed and or totally blocked by the Thug and his Toolie.

    Dutton ‘won’. Australia lost.

    Enjoy!

  18. FUBARsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:12 pm
    “Ms Young argued that the senator must have”

    Didn’t supply any evidence that she did – just decided “must have”.

    Bennett provided multiple photographs and messages in evidence supporting his arguments.

    Everyone happy?

    Or do you want full articles printed?
    ===================================================

    No you are doing great. Young argued something that you don’t define poorly. While Bennett argued something else, that is also not defined, well.

    You have convinced me. That Bennett has more power point slides than Young.

  19. The good thing about stockmarket collapses is that they reduce the amount of funds people have to spend on hara kiri consumption.

  20. Lordbain says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    Rikali… you do realize that old Georgie boy was a communist… and that I have, on multiple occasions, called the Soviet Union evil?

    1984 is not anti communism, its anti authoritarianism…

    No, Animal Farm was his anti communist work.

  21. Lordbain says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    …because communists aren’t authoritarians. Apparently.

    And if you don’t believe that you’ll get a bullet in the back of the skull.

  22. The Nikkei stock index closed with its largest single-day point drop in history on Monday, tumbling over 4,400 points and down over 12 percent, hit by concerns over a U.S. recession and a firming yen.

  23. Butcher blocked?
    [heheh]
    1984 is not anti communism, its anti authoritarianism…
    It was a satire of the realities of 1948 Britain.
    Publishers rejected the original title, 1948

  24. bcsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:22 pm
    Lordbain says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    Rikali… you do realize that old Georgie boy was a communist… and that I have, on multiple occasions, called the Soviet Union evil?

    1984 is not anti communism, its anti authoritarianism…

    No, Animal Farm was his anti communist work.
    ================================================

    Anti-Stalinist i think you will find. He was a communist whom correctly believed that Stalin had betrayed the ideals of communism.

  25. bc, I would argue Animal Farm was also about the dangers of consolidating power…
    Orwell shilled for a gentler, kinder Socialism.
    Can’t ever happen, because Socialism is the mother of all get rich quick schemes.
    Was reading the other day, Trotsky was one of the richest men in the world when he got the ax.

  26. Has there ever been a communist regime that hasn’t betrayed the ideals of communism?

    I’ve yet to see one. That’s why all the refugees want to move to western capitalist democracies. Not a lot in the other direction for some reason.

  27. Badthinkersays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:28 pm
    Butcher blocked?
    [heheh]
    1984 is not anti communism, its anti authoritarianism…
    It was a satire of the realities of 1948 Britain.
    Publishers rejected the original title, 1948
    =================================================

    More BT BS. We are talking about Animal Farm and not 1984 though. It was obviously having a go at Stalin’s Russia. The pig Napolean was obviously Stalin. The horse was Lenin. The humans they over threw were the Tsar and his family.

  28. Lee Harvey Oswald defected to the Soviet Union in 1959.
    The Soviets were suspicious though, can’t imagine why?

  29. Just to be clear, Minister McCarthy says the PM is still doing the Makaratta. Apparently. A breakfast show host may join him to teach us all the steps.

  30. Biggest drop on the Nikkei, beating 1987. 12.5% today versus 12.4% in 1987
    Now riots in the U.K. West on edge. War looms.
    Oil embargo coming soon, meaning western inflation will go up.
    Where’s that roy morgan poll Nadia? 5pm every Monday isn’t it. Hopefully libs over 40%, labor below 30%.
    In the meantime; Albo and his makaratta. Sorry Albo, piss off and take malandiri mccarthy with you. Good Scots surname McCarthy too.

  31. FUBARsays:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:35 pm
    Has there ever been a communist regime that hasn’t betrayed the ideals of communism?
    ===================================================

    That is a different issue. Though Orwell wrote his books quite awhile ago. So communism hadn’t been around that long as an idea. So would be less historically examples to look at to evaluate if the system was flawed or not governing model in his time. Though he obviously thought Stalin’s Russia was a totally flawed or betrayed example of communism.

  32. Was reading the other day, Trotsky was one of the richest men in the world when he got the ax.

    One of the few things you can be sure of in life is that when Badthinker invokes the authority of something he read, what you’re about to be told will be untrue.

  33. Telling a person to report an alleged crime to the Police so that they can investigate it is now officially known as a cover up.

    Dreyfus is going to have to stop referring anything he dislikes to the AFP.

  34. Albo wants to legislate his voice now does he.
    Going in via the back door.
    Albo – take your voice and makaratta rubbish and shove off
    Can’t be long before he’s gone. Useless PM.
    Hopefully he and his stupid gov’t are oncers.

  35. Butcher – i had most of my posts removed last time i was on so don’t be upset. Tonight, i’ll be supernice to even the nasty posters on this site.
    Evening entropy and William.

  36. “Suck it up, princesses.
    The Voice is dead, buried and cremated.
    That referendum result killed Makarrata and the Treaty.”

    Absolutely. The first hurdle was shot down. The other 2 are just as dead, buried and cremated too.

  37. What sort of commo are you lordbain.
    A Marxist, a Leninist, Trotskyist perhaps, or do you prefer the North Korea sort of communism.

  38. Scott 1 says:
    Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:51 pm

    1. It’s only a preliminary view.

    The view is at odds with hundreds of other decisions. I’d put money on it being approved.

    2. The statements by the Conservation Council are unsubstantiated, unscientific scare mongering.

  39. Are there any stats on how many people are fleeing into North Korea. Were there many people crossing the Berlin Wall to get into East Germany.
    People just love communism.

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