The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.
Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.
A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.
Entropy says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Ah, no. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Farm#Equines
William Bowesays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:44 pm
Was reading the other day, Trotsky was one of the richest men in the world when he got the ax.
One of the few things you can be sure of in life is that when Badthinker invokes the authority of something he read, what you’re about to be told will be untrue.
====================================================
Lucianne Goldberg did make up a lot of things. Working in Tricky Dicky’s dirt unit i assume. So if Badthinker credits a few more to her. Who can prove it was not so?
Big troubles in the world.
Dow Jones opens tonight 10.30pm eastern oz time.
Big night coming up for the stock market.
bcsays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:59 pm
Entropy says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:36 pm
The horse was Lenin.
Ah, no. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Farm#Equines
================================================
I did read it along time ago. Obviously got that wrong from memory though. The real point was, it was about Stalin’s Russia. Which your Wikipedia link confirms too.
Yes Steve at 4.50pm.
Goodnight voice, and piss off makaratta and treaty.
Hard working Australians don’t want this divisive rubbish. Enough to deal with., without the burden of Albo on their backs.
ALABAMA
Dow Jones futures 500 pts down already. Nasdaq futures almost 5% down
Young continued to outline the four reasons she believed Reynolds’ legal team will have trouble proving that claim. Young said it was a high bar to prove, she would have to establish serious injury and harm beyond her pre-existing conditions, she was out of time in bringing the case within its statute limitations and the damages she seeks were of a small sum – around $4,200.
Is that right.. seeking $4200 in damages.. so Reynolds does all of this to gain a pathetic $4,200 plus I assume costs.. if it’s about inflicting pain & legal costs on Higgins it indicates Reynolds values are entirely at one with the liberal Party & the likes of silver spooners like Porter… talk about a nasty piece of work.
Good to see no more climate change hysteria on PB.
Fancy world leaders taking the views of 16 year old hysterics from wealthy European countries. More coal, more gas, nuclear and lots of royalties revenue for our gov’t. Helps to fund our roads and hospitals.
In the process of research ATM, the story is Trotsky was staying at Diego & Frida’s place [yeah, he paid the rent], was one of the richest men in the world at the time [1940].
Did the doubletake, thought,
‘Hang on, he was a cloth capped friend to the working man, how could he have more than Fourpence?’
Then, the awful truth dawned …
Lordbain says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 4:14 pm
Rikali… you do realize that old Georgie boy was a communist… and that I have, on multiple occasions, called the Soviet Union evil?
1984 is not anti communism, its anti authoritarianism…
—————
Orwell was a democratic socialist. He is one of my heroes. He had to escape from Spain because the Communists were after him.
What would he make of the sad state of contemporary western “leftism” with its hatred for “wrong think”.
The Green Parties seem to be particularly reprehensible in this regard.
Screaming “Racist”, “Islamophobe”, “Transphobe”, “Fascist”, “Nazi” is often the “lefts” way of preventing questioning and honest debate on things they find uncomfortable.
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” – 1984
On the contemporary “left’s” attitude to that which cannot be named:
“One could not have a better example of the moral and emotional shallowness of our time, than the fact that we are now all more or less pro Stalin. This disgusting murderer is temporarily on our side, and so the purges, etc., are suddenly forgotten.”
— George Orwell, in his war-time diary, 3 July 1941[109]
The problem with the contemporary “left” is that it is largely expresses the psychological pathologies of the American bourgeoisie. It seems to share the same language, attitudes and above all a deep distaste for their own culture (and working class) in every western country. But that is a whole other thesis
no more tall tales on PB ? Surely not William?
With the entropy fact checking unit in operation no one will dare tell future porkies.
Roy Morgan, for what its worth.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/labor-edges-further-ahead-as-inflation-is-lower-than-expected-and-interest-rates-set-to-remain-unchanged-alp-51-5-cf-l-np-48-5
August 05, 2024
Labor edges further ahead as inflation is lower than expected and interest rates set to remain unchanged: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a narrow win for the Labor Party with the ALP on 51.5% (up 1%) ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Although neither major party increased their support this week, the flow of preferences from minor parties tipped further in favour of the ALP, once again highlighting the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The Coalition primary vote decreased by 0.5% to 37% while ALP primary support was unchanged at 30.5%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12% and support for One Nation was down 1% to 5.5%.
It was smaller parties and independents that gained support. Support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5% and support for Independents increased 1.5% to 10% – the highest level it has been so far this year.
……………………
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,655 Australian electors from July 29 – August 4, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is identical for the first time since June: ALP: 51.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago).
Rikali… for someone arguing about doublethink, you spreading around BS like that seems a little hypocritical…
Scepticsays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Young continued to outline the four reasons she believed Reynolds’ legal team will have trouble proving that claim. Young said it was a high bar to prove, she would have to establish serious injury and harm beyond her pre-existing conditions, she was out of time in bringing the case within its statute limitations and the damages she seeks were of a small sum – around $4,200.
Is that right.. seeking $4200 in damages.. so Reynolds does all of this to gain a pathetic $4,200 plus I assume costs.. if it’s about inflicting pain & legal costs on Higgins it indicates Reynolds values are entirely at one with the liberal Party & the likes of silver spooners like Porter… talk about a nasty piece of work.
=====================================================
Using her position of much greater wealth and power. To harass a rape victim. Of one her own, fairly senior, Liberal staff. Calling her a “nasty piece of work” is to kind i fear.
Fed polls only shifting by MOE on a regular basis. No big shifts.
Thanks Steve.
Dow Jones might have a bit of trouble tonight, going by what happened in the world’s third largest economy today.
Japan is worried about a possible oil embargo, because they have to import all of it. Big trouble coming for the world.
The far right is on the march, but they lack organisation.
The far left is on the march too, but they have the benefit of organisation.
Well, I guess all the Tsars gold had to en d up in someone’s pocket, and it wasn’t going to do much good for the 200,000 fatal industrial accidents digging the White Sea canal by hand.
=================================================
ALABAMA
Waiting for the all out war in the Middle East to begin.
BW: “The Voice is dead, buried and cremated.
That referendum result killed Makarrata and the Treaty.
To work, both MUST BE national endeavours, not party-specific endeavours.
To work, both depend on a national Indigenous Voice and on bipartisanship.
There is no national Indigenous Voice. There is zero bipartisan support for either.
——————————————————————————–
What a load of defeatist whinging.
The treaty is, and has always been, a much bigger concept than the Voice, and could quite possibly be achieved in the absence of the Voice. And, for that matter, the Voice was readily achievable without the referendum.
Dutton and his allies Price and Mundine were able to shoot down the referendum because they were able to persuade the electorate that it was a divisive policy. Labor couldn’t combat that tactic because they made the ill-conceived decision to run with a campaign in which they provided just about no details about how the Voice was expected to operate or what it might achieve. The whole process was a major stuff-up and, while I agree that it has set back the cause of reconciliation a fair way, it is ridiculous and defeatist for us to give up on Makarrata and the ultimate goal of a treaty.
In 2022, Albo promised to deliver the Uluru Statement proposals in full. I don’t think he should ever have done this, but he did. I would expect Indigenous leaders are still expecting him to continue to try to fulfil that commitment. I suppose nothing is going to stop you from throwing your hands in the air and whinging that the whole thing has been destoryed by Dutton.
But such an excuse is not a viable one for Albo. He’s on the right track with the concept of an inclusive, optimistic approach to Makarrata. But he didn’t sell it at all well yesterday. McCarthy, who, as I have posted in the past, is an excellent communicator, has done quite a good job at selling it for him over the past couple of days. But he needs to step up.
If only he were a better politician.
PS: I feel I have posted many times lately on how unimpressed I am with Albo as a politician. But, while any criticism I might offer of current government policies generally attracts an angry response, my criticisms of Albo’s personal performance only produce the sound of crickets. I think even the most loyal Laborites know in their hearts that he’s really not much chop. But, as I posted this morning, I don’t believe that any of the viable alternatives are any better than Albo. So somehow Albo’s advisers are going to have to find ways of making him perform better.
The tsars gold – 36 train carriages worth was initially taken by Grand Admiral Kolchak, until he was shot – and then traded by the Czech Legion for safe passage out of Russia.
There were rumours that 1 train carriage worth was kept by the Legion.
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:13 pm
no more tall tales on PB ? Surely not William?
With the entropy fact checking unit in operation no one will dare tell future porkies.
===================================================
You may not have noticed. I was just fact checked. I backed the wrong horse. It should have been a white pig called Snowball instead i believe.
Entropy, its better to gets a characters name wrong then get the entire point of the story wrong as others have done…
Was hoping for 41% again. That was good last week.
‘meher baba says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:20 pm
BW: “The Voice is dead, buried and cremated.
That referendum result killed Makarrata and the Treaty.
To work, both MUST BE national endeavours, not party-specific endeavours.
To work, both depend on a national Indigenous Voice and on bipartisanship.
There is no national Indigenous Voice. There is zero bipartisan support for either.
——————————————————————————–
What a load of defeatist whinging.
….’
================
I didn’t think you ever understood what was happening during the referendum and you certainly don’t now.
Makarrata means one in all in. It does not matter what Albanese and McCarthy do or say. Or what criticisms they cop from the usuals.
If Dutton is out then there is NO makarrata. Not conceptually possible.
A national Voice is a national Voice.
There can’t be a national Voice if a major political party is not listening to it. Not conceptually possible.
There can be no Treaty without a Voice or Makarrata.
Do wake up.
I assume that the usuals will not be gaslighting Labor about interest rate rises for the next little while. Instead we will be getting the Chicken Little Stock Market routine.
Don’t worry entropy – most sensible people know Orwell should have been shot out of hand as a counter revolutionary masquerading as a socialist, notorious for writing white guardist propaganda like animal farm.
BW
Nah I will just congratulate Labor for banking a surplus so they can afford a cash splash to alleviate effects of a recession if that happens
(Good economic management)
Thanks L.V.T.
I’m guessing a few Teutons were quite interested in the fate of that carriage about 15 or 20 years later?
The Guardian live blog is paying some attention to Reynolds who is giving evidence as we post.
Badthinker, the communists seized power because the Russian tsars were all caught up in conspiracies, mediums and loonies like Rasputin.
Normal working humans, are not excited about the above.
Communists don’t waste their time with mediums like Rasputin, with all their healing potions and other nonsense.
The Russian tsars were “ripe for the picking”.
The communists only got control of Russia because Germany sent Lenin home but had Nicholas been a strong tsar Lenin wouldn’t have got anywhere near power.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:25 pm
Entropy, its better to gets a characters name wrong then get the entire point of the story wrong as others have done…
==================================================
Thanks, there are certainly bigger porkies or factual errors than others. Though mine was big enough, it was certainly worth correcting. My real error was not checking it with google first i guess.
Yes BT everybody “knows” the nazi gold ended up in the sammerzgut lakes in 1945 but despite countless dives expeditions etc it’s never been found.
How to verify ? I guess if you had looted gold( mostly gold fillings) you might not advertise the fact?
Germany interesting country – apparently in the very prim neighbourhoods outside dachau in Munich you have the second third and forth generation of the camp personnel. As the McDonalds sign says at the station”wilkommen in dachau”.
Some still dont see the irony in the greeting.
Mid-term blues: Vic poll shows Labor losing ground
Story by Callum Godde • 2h • 2 min read
The spectre of looming hospital funding cuts has contributed to Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan leading Labor to its worst polling result in almost seven years.
A survey of 1514 Victorians by independent polling outfit RedBridge between July 23 and August 1 has Labor and the coalition tied 50-50 on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis.
The poll has Labor’s primary vote at 31 per cent – six points lower than at the state election in November 2022 – compared with 40 per cent for the coalition.
It is the first time the coalition has been all square with Labor on TPP since a Galaxy poll in December 2017.
“It’s definitely a sign that something’s going on in the electorate,” RedBridge director Kos Samaras told ABC Radio Melbourne on Monday.
The former Labor deputy campaign director said Labor continued to enjoy solid support from younger cohorts, with a 62 TPP advantage among 18 to 34-year-olds and 55 TPP for those aged between 35 and 49.
But a significant chunk of younger people were shifting their support to the Greens, while Victorians aged between 50 and 64 have crossed to the coalition and minor parties for a specific reason.
“It’s the stories about the health cuts that are driving sentiment away from the Labor government,” Mr Samaras said.
Related video: Victoria’s Labor party calls opposition’s decision to walk out of question time ‘a publicity stunt’ (Dailymotion)
The poll comes after the CFMEU scandal erupted in June and will be viewed as a fillip for state Liberal Leader John Pesutto, who is set to head to trial in September to defend defamation action from dumped first-term MP Moira Deeming.
Mr Samaras said Mr Pesutto had successfully created a “credible alternative” and suggested it would be unwise for internal Liberal detractors to establish “an atmosphere of instability” by dumping him as leader.
The coalition would need to pick up at least 17 extra seats to form majority government when Victorians next head to the polls on November 28, 2026.
Mr Pesutto was confident he would lead the coalition to the next election and said the poll echoed his and colleagues’ everyday discussions with Victorians.
“People are less optimistic in Victoria under Premier Jacinta Allan,” he told reporters.
Ms Allan said she was not focused on the latest poll following speculation it would put pressure on her leadership.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, who threatened to challenge Ms Allan for the leadership after Mr Andrews retired in September 2023, said he had the job he wanted.
“There’s only one poll that matters,” he said.
My problem with Orwell is that, to a certain extent, he seemed to buy the idea that Trotsky was a more principled and better-intentioned Bolshevik than the rest of them.
But 1984 was a tour de force in political writing, although I couldn’t describe it as being a pleasure to read.
The enemies enemy is the friend Boer.
Hope I got the letters in the right order with Boer too.
Greens and Libs are smashing labor. Great stuff, go the Greens!
Now onto the more important stuff – Higgins v Reynolds.
World changing events all this rubbish.
steve davis @ #1296 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 4:50 pm
So when Albo announced “Labor’s commitment to implement the Uluru Statement from the Heart, in full.”, what he actually meant was “in full … or not at all”?
I wish that last bit had been reported earlier. And I’ll bet many First Nations people do too 🙁
pied pipersays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:37 pm
Mid-term blues: Vic poll shows Labor losing ground
Story by Callum Godde • 2h • 2 min read
The spectre of looming hospital funding cuts has contributed to Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan leading Labor to its worst polling result in almost seven years.
================================================
Thanks, so now anyone who missed what WB wrote in the first thread on this website currently. Will now be better informed.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/08/05/redbridge-group-50-50-in-victoria/#comments
The cricketing world is mourning the passing of England great Graham Thorpe.
He was 55. Thorpe played 100 Tests, recording 6744 runs with 16 centuries at an average of 44.66, along with 82 one-day internationals. “There seem to be no appropriate words to describe the deep shock we feel at Graham’s death,” the ECB said in a statement.
Ah… p1 wallows with MB. What a surprise.
Hello?
By killing the Voice Dutton killed Makarrata and the Treaty.
It is why the national Indigenous leadership that promoted the Voice has largely fallen completely silent.
They get it, at least.
Boerwar @ #1333 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 5:30 pm
Yes, just tuning in. Thanks Boerwar.
From the Guardian, Sarah Basford Canales
‘The Liberal senator Linda Reynolds has revealed a number of close friends and family have been raped or the subject of predatory behaviour….’
—————————————-
Liberal v Liberal is getting very willing.
ALABAMA @ #1308 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 5:11 pm
I feel for you. It must be truly awful to realize that a 16 year old has more intelligence, understanding and insight than you do.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/aug/05/australia-news-live-uluru-co-chair-fears-pm-is-rolling-back-makarrata-promise-warning-over-international-student-cap
The evidence shows she is right, but this to me is a chilling statement. Almost like you just shrug and say ‘it isn’t my problem. These things happen in this building and what can you do?’
No wonder nothing changes for women.
BW: “To work, both depend on a national Indigenous Voice and on bipartisanship.
There is no national Indigenous Voice. There is zero bipartisan support for either.”
——————————————————————————–
So what you are saying is that, in order for Indigenous peoples to be able to speak for themselves and achieve justice, they need to make use of an institution enacted by the overwhelmingly non-Indigenous Federal parliament using powers given to it under the constitution that was signed off by Queen Victoria in 1901. And the non-Indigenous leaders of the two major political parties will have to play an essential role in driving the process.
Don’t Indigenous peoples themselves have any agency in your vision of the Makarrata process?
Indigenous Australians have long had their own leadership structures, in the absence of an institution such as the proposed Voice. Couldn’t that leadership now come together to devise some sort of a proposal for a treaty and put it forward to the Australian public? Couldn’t it perhaps find some highly respected non-Indigenous allies – perhaps including present and former politicians from both sides – to join them in that process. Couldn’t Albo help this process along by giving this “coalition of the willing” some of the money set aside for the Makarrata Commission?
Maybe that approach is no good either. But it’s better than simply giving up altogether, which is what you seem to be suggesting.
Talk about wallowing.
Per higgins/reynolds/wilkinson.
Someone had the idea of running a “where are they now”, program. I’ve had my thinking cap on.
I was more attuned to a wheel of fortune style show.
Someone’s name on the “Big prize” label, another ending up with “lose a turn”, and finally there is the “bankrupt” tab.
One of our gracious Judges could spin the wheel.
Perhaps other posters might be more inclined to a “blankety blanks” themed program. We could have six of the players on a panel with someone playing the role of Gra Gra.
Evening all.
On the Reynolds Defamation trial, I will not comment on trial claims or prospects of success for either side. Best left to the Court.
However with the general outlines of both cases now given, I am not seeing any new information come to light that would cast a negative perception on the behaviour of Labor Party members.
As far as Labor figures are concerned, there are no new allegations. Yes Senators Wong and Gallagher raised questions about the case back in the Senate in 2019, as was their job as opposition politicians. The alleged rape they asked about has since been found in Court to have been proven on the balance of probabilities. In that light their questions were both reasonable at the time and still are now.
“[Higgins Barrister] Ms Young argued that like any constituent Ms Higgins can raise issues and provide information to MPs, which they can choose to ignore or pursue.
In this case, Labor senators chose to repeatedly question Senator Reynolds during Question Time in parliament over her handling of Ms Higgins’ rape allegation.
“So there are questions, hard questions asked of the senator, but in ways that are entirely consistent with keeping members opposite accountable,” Ms Young said.
“There’s not collusion here. There’s not a suggestion of secret or illegal cover up to deceive.
“We say what the events of 2021 demonstrate is Members of Parliament doing their jobs to ask questions of each other and to call each other out to account on a most important issue of workplace safety in parliament.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-05/brittany-higgins-linda-reynolds-david-sharaz-defamation-trial/104180192
However this case might turn out, the parties at risk are a former Liberal staffer and a former Liberal Minister.
Past comments by some posters here that Labor might want to go to an early election to avoid scandal from this case look baseless.
Meanwhile, we will all get to watch Liberal Senator Linda Reynolds cross examined on her role in allegdly leaking private case details to the Murdoch press.
Socrates, our Judges are probably sick to death of this higgins, lehrmann, shiraz, wilkinson saga.. as most of us in this country are.
When they start adding zeroes onto potential defamation payouts, it’s usually a warning sign to all of us that they have had enough. I agree, best the Judge sorts all this out.
‘meher baba says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:50 pm
BW: “To work, both depend on a national Indigenous Voice and on bipartisanship.
There is no national Indigenous Voice. There is zero bipartisan support for either.”
——————————————————————————–
So what you are saying is…’
==================
That you are clueless about vital conceptual elements about the Voice, Makarrata and Treaty. It is clear that you still don’t get it.
You can have something that is not the Voice by majoritiarian legislative activity.
You can have something that is not Makarrata by majoritarian legislative activity.
You can have something you might call a Treaty by majoritarian legislative activity
But for a genuine Voice you need something in the Constitution.
For genuine Makarrata you need something that is national – all in – .
For a genuine treaty you need both a genuine Voice and a genuine Makarrata.
With Dutton out you get neither.
As for Indigenous views, they are perfectly entitled to band together and form something they call a national Indigenous Voice. Get back to me when that happens.
We just lost a generation. As easy as that. Dutton won. Australia lost.
From the Guardian livestream.
I wonder how Reynolds would’ve responded re Lehrmann had Lee’s ruling been different…