Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Rex Douglas

    “Can’t afford to lift people out of poverty, apparently…”
    ——————————————–

    By the year 2030 no child of a BAE shareholder, or former Australian Admiral, will be living in poverty.

  2. I know Victoria hasn’t commented for sometime on here, hope she is fine.
    I just saw this article which confirms lots of what she was saying about Prince William following photogate:

    “Jobson reports William’s “PR team suggested he and Catherine issue a joint statement to help deflect the blame from her”.

    “The initial prepared statement used the words ‘we’ and ‘our’, but the Prince decided not to release it,” Jobson writes.

    “After all, it was his wife who’d manipulated the snap and nothing to do with him, and if the Press found out that he was covering for the Princess, the speculation would only grow. When the statement was finally issued, it came from Catherine alone.”

    What makes Prince ‘it had nothing to do with me’ William’s shirking of any responsibility here all the worse is that we now know that Kate was dealing with a cancer diagnosis at the time too.

    In the eternal words of Salt-n-Pepa, whatta man, whatta man …”

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/royals/nasty-prince-william-revelation-comes-out/news-story/8cea8382835b64eb05b91513f840eae6

  3. Israel may very well be the wild card in the US election.

    I wouldnt be surprised if they try on an expulsion from Gaza just before the Presidential election.

  4. LB, I think the Israeli fantasy is that they can expel the Gaza Palestinians in about 72-96 hours.

    I am sure they would be willing to wear the short term odium to create “facts on the ground”.

    I am not so sure either US party would do more then “express concern” about it until it was done.

  5. I can’t bring myself to engage with the horror show being played out in the middle east. What a terrible horrible mess. I have to switch off because it is too disturbing to my state of mind.

  6. Lars
    The expulsion of the Sudetens in 1945 allegedly took 48 hours – a simple and essential question- Bavaria or Death?
    It can be done physically and if you have the US on your side, why not?

  7. I agree OC – the endgame is expulsion of the Palestinians for Israel.

    Who exactly will be calling the shots in Washington if that happens? Biden? Kamala? Blinken?

    Presumably Trump will be all in on supporting Israel. How does it translate in the final week or two of the election campaign?

    Ironically doing it would weaken the youth vote for the Democrats and make it more likely for Trump to win?

  8. Lars waited gor Inflation figures eith baited breadth
    Is Lars disappointed because Interest rates may not rise next week?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-31/australia-inflation-june-quarter-2024/104160496

    “Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is as sticky as expected but, importantly, is no higher than the RBA had forecast it to be,” said BDO Economics partner Anders Magnusson.

    “This is good news as the RBA tries to keep a lid on inflation without losing the gains made by workers through a strong labour market,” he said.

    “Today’s release has not changed our forecast that the next movement by the RBA will be a rate cut in early 2025. We don’t believe that the RBA will raise the cash rate next week, but the ongoing cost-of-living struggles for many Australians will likely continue until early next year,” he said.

  9. Lars, it’s comes down to how Hariss responds; while she certainly isn’t an overt Zionist like Biden, her record is… mixed.

  10. Vensays:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 3:23 pm
    Lars waited gor Inflation figures eith baited breadth
    Is Lars disappointed because Interest rates may not rise next week?
    __________________
    No I’m disappointed ur still here and nadia88 has left.

  11. Sandman

    “I can’t bring myself to engage with the horror show being played out in the middle east. What a terrible horrible mess. I have to switch off because it is too disturbing to my state of mind.”
    —————————————————————–

    You are not alone on this one. I find it too depressing to watch TV news bulletins on the topic. Both sides (Israel and Iran proxies) seem intent on painting themselves into a corner where war is the only way out.

  12. pied piper there are numerous countries around the world that don’t acknowledge Israel’s “right to exist” but are not in active confrontation with Israel.

  13. Netanyahu appears content to put Israel’s very existence at risk in the event of an all out war – purely to maintain his own political survival. The man is a complete psychopath.

  14. The “funny” thing regarding Iran and Israel is that at certain points they had quite close relations. But yeh the actions of Israel over the last 48 hours mean any hope for a ceasefire deal is dead, and the region is one step closer to going hot…


  15. Sandmansays:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 3:16 pm
    I can’t bring myself to engage with the horror show being played out in the middle east. What a terrible horrible mess. I have to switch off because it is too disturbing to my state of mind.

    Sandman
    Israel launched missile attack on a suburb of Beirut in Lebonon because they alleged that Hesbollah attacked Israeli occupied Golan Heights (which was part of Syria).

    Can you clarify why Israel is most important ally of Australia in Asia?

  16. Scapegoat in that his actions were symptomatic of the US military’s attitude to the Vietnamese but he was the only one to be convicted.

    He tried the Nuremberg defence and failed but got off very light: a life sentence with hard labour eventually reduced to 3.5 years house arrest, largely due to political interference. I also have no sympathy for him.

  17. Israel is a very small country in terms of physical size. Iran is an ally of nuclear armed China and Russia. Iran is also equipped with a vast array of powerful missiles, many of which it has given to Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not a ragtag milita like Hamas, Hezbollah is in effect a full blown army. Turkey also has a powerful armed forces and is making threats towards Israel. Turkey could also perhaps aquire a nuclear bomb from Pakistan if things get hot. China and Russia are unlikely to sit back and watch Iran be destroyed. I have heard that it would only take 3 nuclear bombs to essentially wipe Israel off the map, due to its small physical size. Not to mention the immense damage that could be done to Israel with conventional munitions . WTF is Netanyahu doing?? He’s putting Israel’s very survival at risk and he must know it. He biting off more than he can chew because he believes that Uncle Sam will come and save his ass. The US is not in a position to rush to his aid and fight WW3 on behalf of Netanyahu. He’s a true psychopath and he and his supporters are dragging all of us into a potential catastrophic conflict.

  18. pied piper –

    “If you are crazy enough to think there will ever be a truce while Iran does not acknowledge Israels right to exist .Israel will bring the war directly to Iran if they need to.”

    The definition of crazy is thinking there will ever be peace while Israel illegally occupies Palestinian land and brutally oppresses the Palestinian people. I’m not talking about “from the river to the sea” I’m talking about the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip as recognised by the U.N as occupied territories.

    “ Israel’s occupation is illegal and indistinguishable from a “settler-colonial” situation, which must end, as a pre-condition for Palestinians to exercise their right to self-determination, the UN’s independent expert on the occupied Palestinian territory said on Thursday.

    https://news.un.org/feed/view/en/story/2022/10/1129942
    Peacekeeping News

  19. Also, and I say this knowing we are already tap dancing on Williams good graces on this topic… BN is not the cause but is simply a symptom of the political and societal ills plaguing israel atm. His departure will do little, but yes it does appear his own survival is worth ramping up the temp in the region…

  20. I had the ABC News channel on in the background today. Guest speaker at The National Press Club was the assistant treasurer Stephen Jones.

    Protecting consumers from technology scams and getting 1. Social Media Platforms 2. Telcos and 3. Banks to compensate for losses, will show voters that politicians are doing their job and acting in their interests.

    Well done.

    The Coalition and the Greens just zip and pass the legislation!

  21. Butcher says:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 3:43 pm

    Israel didn’t attack all four of its neighbours plus Iraq the instant it came into being.

    They aren’t occupying those areas because they want to. They would much rather not have spend the huge amounts of blood and treasure to defend themselves against existential threats.

    Return all the hostages and stop the terrorist attacks on Israel and Israel won’t have to act as occupiers.

    And congratulations to Mossad on the Tehran job.

  22. Re the axing of the Winter Fuel Payments to most pensioners, Starmer and Reeves have lost their bloody minds

    This is going to be electoral poison, cut through has been immediate .. Red Wallers I spoke to last night at work are ropeable. I’ve even had a poison-pen email about it from my own mother 🙁

    If there isn’t a u-turn within days Labour are going to be 10-15 points behind in the polls in very short order

  23. The CPI figures released today were really as expected. The RBA will not be raising rates on those figures as many Bludgers and myself predicted.

    Some in financial markets even consider the possibility of a rate cut sooner than later – sending the stock market soaring today.

    Good news for all and super accounts.

    Good news for Albo, And good news there for Dutton as well:

    Electricity prices have risen dramatically. If electricity prices were what they really should be for a resources rich country like Australia, we’d all be richer today!

  24. FUBARsays: Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 3:56 pm:
    “Israel didn’t attack all four of its neighbours plus Iraq the instant it came into being.

    They aren’t occupying those areas because they want to. They would much rather not have spend the huge amounts of blood and treasure to defend themselves against existential threats.

    Return all the hostages and stop the terrorist attacks on Israel and Israel won’t have to act as occupiers.

    And congratulations to Mossad on the Tehran job”
    ——-
    +1

  25. On AUKUS, despite the government sending various defence speakers and officers out to defend it, the challenges keep piling up.

    The US Heritage foundation, architects of Trump’s “Project 2025” agenda, say the US Navy needs more submarines. How will they get those and still have any spare to sell to the RAN?
    https://breakingdefense.com/2024/07/us-needs-more-nuclear-subs-mobile-icbms-and-tactical-nukes-heritage-report/?_hsenc=p2ANqtz–UdSUU2ypEVN_WNJzK20UIDSo2OiizO1NO8SPf0S2N7Qnjk6O1Ze7KgxpBuFm2osr75wDTmB79-CLvcGD4q8qhWzG-qQ&_hsmi=318065733

  26. >Protecting consumers from technology scams and getting 1. Social Media Platforms 2. Telcos and 3. Banks to compensate for losses, will show voters that politicians are doing their job and acting in their interests.

    How are the telcos going to protect consumers from scams?

    Are they going to have to inspect the voice,sms and internet traffic to find out if your connection is from a scammer?

  27. Lordbain says:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 3:31 pm

    “the actions of Israel over the last 48 hours”

    Oh FFS.

    Did you type that with a straight face?

  28. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 3:37 pm
    Scapegoat in that his actions were symptomatic of the US military’s attitude to the Vietnamese but he was the only one to be convicted.

    He tried the Nuremberg defence and failed but got off very light: a life sentence with hard labour eventually reduced to 3.5 years house arrest, largely due to political interference. I also have no sympathy for him.
    ==================================================

    It takes a crook to pardon a crook and Tricky Dickie was certainly that.

    Quotes:
    “I’m not a crook”.

    “Doth protest too much, methinks”

  29. Socrates @ #139 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 4:04 pm

    On AUKUS, despite the government sending various defence speakers and officers out to defend it, the challenges keep piling up.

    The US Heritage foundation, architects of Trump’s “Project 2025” agenda, say the US Navy needs more submarines. How will they get those and still have any spare to sell to the RAN?

    Too easy. We pay for the submarines and their maintenance – but ultimately they remain under US command, and will be deployed in defence of US interests. We will no doubt soon find a need for them to be nuclear armed – and we will then pay for that as well.

  30. Catprog @ #141 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 4:08 pm

    Are they going to have to inspect the voice,sms and internet traffic to find out if your connection is from a scammer?

    Basically, yes. Telcos could detect and ban network users from impersonating someone else when calling or sending SMS messages. Easy to detect. Easy to stop. And this simple step would stop many scams cold.

  31. >Basically, yes. Telcos could detect and ban network users from impersonating someone else when calling or sending SMS messages. Easy to detect. Easy to stop. And this simple step would stop many scams cold.

    My point was your private conversations over the phone are now being intercepted and recorded.

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